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Michael King
Research Director
Gartner
Mobile applications, the future of
Mobile Application Development —
Strategic Platform or Tactical Investment?
iPhone Mashup
Strategic Platform
• The iPhone's effect: Improved usability and multichannel a proven requirement
• Multichannel tools are becoming pluggable, into existing IDEs
• Mobile AD closer to mainstream, will supersede non-mobile by 2011
• Future: Rich client, unified communications, context
Tactical Investment
• Viewpoint: A subset of enterprise mobile applications can be rapidly deployed "commodities"
• Mashups/portals used when network coverage is appropriate
• SaaS – for simple applications and where desktop takes the lead
Android Bio Wallet
Pyxis Mobile Financial App.
Key Issues
1.
What are the trends for 2011-2015 in
networking, devices, and mobile software?
2.
What is the vendor and technology
landscape for mobile application
development, and how will it change?
3.
How can enterprises successfully manage
Mobility Will Be a Trillion-Dollar Business
6.7 billion connections, >$1 trillion direct voice + data service revenue per annum, multiple $ billions in indirect revenue, e.g., advertising
Data revenue exceeds voice revenue in advanced markets 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 ... 2007 The device era The application era The service and social era 5.1 billion connections
Networks: The Future Will Arrive Slowly
Projected network technologies used by subscribers in 2014
100%
50%
0%
GSM WCDMA & HSPA LTE Others CDMA & EV-DO
• LTE will deliver 10s to 100s Mbps downlink data rates but will take many years to roll out
• Fewer than 5% of handsets shipped globally in 2014 will support LTE
• LTE provides better spectral efficiency and performance
• Operators in mature markets will control data demand using
technology & pricing through 2014
• Increased use of Wi-Fi to offload demand from 3G, but roaming remains a challenge
• In most regions, several
generations of network will coexist through 2015
• Network performance will remain a competitive differentiator
Shifting Sands: Smartphone OS Market
Share by Region
Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Pacific North America Western EuropePredicted Smartphone market share 2012
Android Bada iOS MeeGo Symbian RIM Windows 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mature Markets,
e.g., Western Europe, North America
0% 50% 100%
2010 2012 2014
Japan
Emerging markets, e.g.,
Eastern Europe, Latin America
Mobile Platform Trends:
The "Platform" Is Changing
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Symbian Android RIM Microsoft MeeGo iPhone OS
Open OS Handset Sales by Platform
Mobile OS
Mobile Browser + HTML5 Platform substitutes
e.g., Air, Qt, Flash, Silverlight, ...
Scriptable mapping tools New "platforms," e.g., augmented reality tools
Mobile OS Evolution, 2005 to 2011
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.0 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.55.4.9 Garnet 6.0 Cobalt Access Linux?
2011 2.0 3.0 PRE TrackBall OS Storm OS Foundation One Foundation Two OS 6 2.2 4.0
Context Changes Everything
Search
Suggestion
Reactive
Proactive
Any time
Real time
Single channel
Multichannel
Generic
Hyperpersonalized
Individual
Social, intent-driven
Implied privacy
Informed consent
Sessions
Ensemble interactions
Separate services
Federated financial, communications
and content providers
Key Issues
1.
What are the trends for 2011-2015 in
networking, devices, and mobile software?
2.
What is the vendor and technology
landscape for mobile application
development, and how will it change?
3.
How can enterprises successfully manage
Mobile Tools and Platforms: Balancing
Rapidly Changing Requirements
Today's Strategy Tactics:
• Still tactical and siloed skills and investment
• Large enterprise shift to platforms
• Release "cadence" during 2003-2009 normalized
• Pace of change greatly increasing — 2010-2014
Drivers for Change:
• Scale and cost — apps for the masses — installed base of Web-capable
phones > PCs by 2013
• Substantial improvement in UI
• Incumbents in peril: New round of innovation around RIA, HTML5
Implications:
Consumer target Consumer or enterprise target Enterprise target
Typically lower productivity Typically higher productivity
Mobile Application Development
Tools Will Proliferate Through 2012
Cross-platform toole.g., Flash, Qt, Kony
On-device portals
e.g., Modomodo
Mobile Web tools
e.g., Volantis
Platform SDK
e.g., Apple, Android
Template generators
e.g., AppBreeder
App store tools
e.g., Appcelerator
Packaged mobile apps
e.g., Blue Dot, Cognito
MEAP
e.g., Antenna, Syclo
Typical cross-platform capability: strong some weak/none
Consumer to ols e.g., App inv entor MCAP
The Emerging Trends in Mobile Application
Development and Sourcing
The Implications
• Specialization and fragmentation will still rule in mobile application development and sourcing in 2013.
• Mobile application development will need to remain a core competence in
transformational areas; at the same time, more-mature areas need to be optimized.
The Trends
20010-2011
• Mobile enterprise returns to growth >10% CAGR — building and purchase of OTS increases
• Web-capable phones outnumber PCs by year-end 2010
• 95% packaged mobile application vendors give up tool orientation by 2011
2012-2014
• Four large ISVs dominate enterprise mobile application development
• New rich-client deployments outnumber thick-client deployments by 2012
• Commoditization will drive packaged mobile application prices down by 30% by 2013
Mobile application tools, levels of
sophistication
Multi-Platform Development Tools Operational Toolkits Operational Platforms Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms, Sybase, Antenna, Syclo, ETC Mobile consumer application Platforms, Sybase 365, Nokia, Etc Operation system based SDKs/ecosystem s, Apple, Android, etc Mobile device Management Sybase Afaria, Thin Client Application Servers Data Management and security software; Trend Micro, Mobileiron, etc Cross platform SDK/Tool; Adobe, Nokia QT Cross Platform High Level ToolRHOMobile, Appcelerator
Devices and data must be managed and secure Devices must be managed, less data to secure Devices should be managed, no data requirements No management requirements Devices should be managed, messages too No management requirements Unique development skills required Unique development skills required Web development skills only Flash Lite, Silverlight skills Required
Not required, text output only
Server only
Selecting From the Evolving Six Styles of
Mobile Architecture
Rich
Thin
Streaming
Messaging
No Client
Thick
Mobile
Architecture
Determinants
People
Business Process
Cost & Scale
Coverage
Usability
Security & Management
HTML 5 vs. Native Development?
•
Backing from Apple, Google and Palm
•
APIs include:
- An API that enables offline Web applications
- The canvas tag for immediate mode 2-D drawing
- Offline storage database
- Document editing
- Drag and drop
•
Will the OS be relevant in the future?
•
JavaScript performance becomes important
Use of the Six Styles of Mobile Applications
Among Enterprise Applications
Limited to smart with a third party OS Smart phones and limited enhanced phones Most devices, with browsers, limited by browser functionality Limited devices, with streaming player More than 90% of devices in market Unlimited devices Application and application data permanently on device Application and limited cached data resident on device Data only resident in browser cache Streaming client only, not data resident after consumption Data remains on device until deleted No data on device Data must be managed and secure Applications must be managed and secured Browsers must support encryption User name and password management only Phone number and password management only None
High High Limited Limited None None
High High Medium Low Low Medium
Thick Client Streaming No Client
Client Thin Client
Rich Client MessagingClient
Addressable devices Device resource addressab ility Cost to develop Security and mgmt. concerns Data on device
Portals/Mobile Consumer App
Platforms
2010-2013: Time to Bridge Your Mobile
Application Platform Strategy
Multichannel Access Gateways Packaged Mobile Applications Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms Wireless Application Gateways 1997-2001 2002-2007 2008-2012 2013 and beyond Packaged Mobile Applications Generic Client AD Mobile Application Platforms
Nascent Adolescent Early Mainstream Mainstream
Cross-Platform
User Experience
2010 Mobile Enterprise Application
Platform Magic Quadrant
Packaged Mobile Application Platform
Vendor Orientation
System
Integration,
Process
Expertise
Tooling Orientation
Pure Application Orientation
Getting Started:
Top Ten Success Factors
for Good Mobile User Experience
1.
Don’t assume *anything* about user preferences:
objective validation of subjective design tradeoffs
2.
Embedded analytics: observe and iterate
3.
Speed, Speed, and the Perception of Speed
4.
Navigation: based on role, task, taxonomy, or search
5.
Minimizing Clutter: Rule of 7’s (or 5’s or 3’s?)
6.
Context, Search and Communications are a gesture
away
7.
The Content = The Interface
8.
Undo/ Single Tap Back Navigation to Home
9.
Integration with Context – Process, Environment,
Community
10.
Graceful Degradation (OS, browser, network)
Key Issues
1.
What are the trends for 2011-2015 in
networking, devices, and mobile software?
2.
What is the vendor and technology
landscape for mobile application
development, and how will it change?
3.
How can enterprises successfully manage
The Mobile Device Management Migraine
Decentralized Global Services No One Solution or Provider Performance Management/ Support More Employee Choice No Dominant Platform Increasing Smartphone Adoption More Worker Mobility Changing Business Styles Corporate Data Risk Business Continuity PlanningManaging Mobile Devices & Applications
Will Demand New Approaches
Hands off
Innovation-oriented
Choice-oriented
Control-oriented
More responsibility for devices and services Less responsibility for
devices and services Use approaches and architectures where it's not necessary to take corporate
responsibility, e.g., "bring your own" IT
Users need autonomy to create new
processes and deliverables on any device they choose
Users want device choice and have
undemanding application requirements (e.g., mobile e-mail + Web)
IT must guarantee service levels, metrics
security and support, and cost; a high level of control is essential