Changes in human behavior for a future mobility: Are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

(1)

Dr Peter de Haan, Ernst Basler + Partner, Zollikon, Switzerland

Dr Anja Peters, ISI Fraunhofer, Karlsruhe, Germany

Changes in human behavior for a

future mobility: Are they necessary,

possible, and feasible?

(2)

1. The 130 g CO

₂

/km target for average new passenger car

registrations in 2015

2. Autonomous Technical Potential for annual fuel

reductions in new cars

3. To which extent are changes in human behavior, notably

new car purchase behavior, necessary?

4. Are they possible? Which levers exist to change car

purchase behavior?

(3)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

3

(4)

1. 130 g CO

₂

/km target for new cars in 2015



6 g CO

2 /km = 1 t

CO

2 , over 160‘000 km



EU‘s 130 g CO

2 /km regulation:

>2019 € 95 / g



570 EUR/t CO2!



Mobility is fundamentally different from other sectors;

consumers still pay more for higher fuel consumption;

mobility is

time- and space-constrained,

(5)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

1. 130 g CO

₂

/km target for new cars in 2015

95 g target:

assumed for

2023

(otherwise, annual

eff. increases

2016-2022 above those

for 2010-2015)

5

(6)

2. Autonomous Technical Potential (ATP)

Autonomous Technical Potential

= observed CO

₂

reduction

+ „wasted“ CO

₂

reduction potential due to weight

increase

and

due to higher power-to-mass



“wasted” CO

₂

reduction due to weight increase =

0.75*relative weight increase



“wasted” CO

₂

reduction due to power-to-mass increase =

(7)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

2. Autonomous Technical Potential (ATP)

2001-2010 averaging period:

ATP = 2.20% + 0.750.60% + 0.5% 0.5% = 2.89%/a

7

1 g CO2/km empty weight

rated power power-to-mass displacement

unit

g/km

kg

kW

kW/kg

ccm

Average 1991-2010

-2.00%

1.00%

1.40%

0.40%

-0.20%

Average 2001-2010

-2.20%

0.60%

1.10%

0.50%

-0.60%

Average 2008-2010

-3.60%

-1.00%

-0.30%

0.70%

-2.60%

(8)

2. Autonomous Technical Potential (ATP)



New car registrations can reduce CO

₂

emissions by

– 2.89%/a, if weight and power-to-mass ratio constant



If CO

₂

emissions are to be decreased faster



reduce weight and/or power-to-mass ratio

(9)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

3. Are changes in car purchase behavior

necessary?

Switzerland, 2010 to 2015:



annual changes of –3.72% in fuel consumption needed



this exceeds the ATP of –2.89%



–0.83% have to come from behavioral changes



7:2 split (technological:behavioral reduction)

(10)

3. Are changes in car purchase behavior

necessary?

EU:



130 g target can be reached solely through ATP



95 g for ca. 2023: annual reductions of –3.83% over the

full time span from 2015 to 2023.



–0.95% annually from behavioral changes



3:1 ratio (technological:behavioral changes)

(assuming that Switzerland meets the 130 g target in 2015, the latter also

applies to Switzerland)

(11)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

4. Levers to change car purchase behavior



For effective measures to change behavior



psychological factors should be considered



Socio-psychological model from Peters et al:

- Explains car purchase by private consumers

- Survey data from 302 Swiss respondents whose

households have bought a new car since 2002

- Structural equation model (SEM)-based analyses

(12)

4. Levers to change car purchase behavior

attitude +

perceived

behavioral

control

= direct

predictors



Problem awareness, symbolic motives, and response

(13)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

4. Levers to change car purchase behavior

13 Factor

Examples of measures

Attitude

Information about variety of efficient vehicles

Incentives (also non-financial)

Perceived behaviour control

Point out individual behavioural options

Information and guidance

Personal norm

Illustrate consequences of own behaviour

Response efficacy

Illustrate consequences of own behaviour

Point out individual behavioural options

Symbolic motives

Promote popular image of efficient vehicles

Popular / public role models driving efficient vehicles

Social norm

Popular / public role models driving efficient vehicles

(14)

4. Consumers have several options

no veh. on market

segment exists

A

A-label veh. avail.

Segment

luxury

A

fullsize

A

SUV

van

A

small SUV

A

large cars

A

compact van

A

compact/medium

A

small car

A

micro cra

A

<20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-45

-50

-55

-60

-65

-70

>70

(15)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

5. Technical characteristics of cars in the future

15 specific

empty

relative

Year

ATP

CO

₂

emission

weight

power

[% p.a.]

[g CO

₂

/km]

[kg]

[kW/t]

2009

167.3 1448

73.2 2010-2015

-3.72%

-4.12%

-0.97%

0.66%

2015

130.0 1366

76.2 2016-2020

-3.08%

-3.50%

-1.00%

0.67%

2020

108.8 1299

78.7 2021-2030

-2.48%

-2.90%

-1.00%

0.67%

2030

81.1 1175

84.2

(16)

Swiss new registrations, 130g scenario, 2010

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 60 70 80 90 ₁₀₀ ₁₁₀ ₁₂₀ ₁₃₀ ₁₄₀ ₁₅₀ ₁₆₀ ₁₇₀ ₁₈₀ ₁₉₀ ₂₀₀ ₂₁₀ ₂₂₀ ₂₃₀ ₂₄₀ ₂₅₀ >=250

CO

2

[g/km]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 6 6. 5 7 7. 5 8 8. 5 9 9. 5 ₁₀ 10 .5 ₁₁ 11 .5 ₁₂ >=12

Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/100 km]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Leistung [kW]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Hubraum [ccm]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Leergewicht [kg]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Gesamtgewicht [kg]

(17)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

17 Swiss new registrations, 130g scenario, 2014

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 60 70 80 90 ₁₀₀ ₁₁₀ ₁₂₀ ₁₃₀ ₁₄₀ ₁₅₀ ₁₆₀ ₁₇₀ ₁₈₀ ₁₉₀ ₂₀₀ ₂₁₀ ₂₂₀ ₂₃₀ ₂₄₀ ₂₅₀ >=250

CO

2

[g/km]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 6 6. 5 7 7. 5 8 8. 5 9 9. 5 ₁₀ 10 .5 ₁₁ 11 .5 ₁₂ >=12

Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/100 km]

15% 20% 25% 30%

Leistung [kW]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Hubraum [ccm]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Leergewicht [kg]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Gesamtgewicht [kg]

(18)

Swiss new registrations, 130g scenario, 2018

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 60 70 80 90 ₁₀₀ ₁₁₀ ₁₂₀ ₁₃₀ ₁₄₀ ₁₅₀ ₁₆₀ ₁₇₀ ₁₈₀ ₁₉₀ ₂₀₀ ₂₁₀ ₂₂₀ ₂₃₀ ₂₄₀ ₂₅₀ >=250

CO

2

[g/km]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 6 6. 5 7 7. 5 8 8. 5 9 9. 5 ₁₀ 10 .5 ₁₁ 11 .5 ₁₂ >=12

Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/100 km]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Leistung [kW]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Hubraum [ccm]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Leergewicht [kg]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Gesamtgewicht [kg]

(19)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

19 Swiss new registrations, 130g scenario, 2022

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 60 70 80 90 ₁₀₀ ₁₁₀ ₁₂₀ ₁₃₀ ₁₄₀ ₁₅₀ ₁₆₀ ₁₇₀ ₁₈₀ ₁₉₀ ₂₀₀ ₂₁₀ ₂₂₀ ₂₃₀ ₂₄₀ ₂₅₀ >=250

CO

2

[g/km]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 6 6. 5 7 7. 5 8 8. 5 9 9. 5 ₁₀ 10 .5 ₁₁ 11 .5 ₁₂ >=12

Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/100 km]

15% 20% 25% 30%

Leistung [kW]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Hubraum [ccm]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Leergewicht [kg]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Gesamtgewicht [kg]

(20)

Swiss new registrations, 130g scenario, 2026

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 60 70 80 90 ₁₀₀ ₁₁₀ ₁₂₀ ₁₃₀ ₁₄₀ ₁₅₀ ₁₆₀ ₁₇₀ ₁₈₀ ₁₉₀ ₂₀₀ ₂₁₀ ₂₂₀ ₂₃₀ ₂₄₀ ₂₅₀ >=250

CO

2

[g/km]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 6 6. 5 7 7. 5 8 8. 5 9 9. 5 ₁₀ 10 .5 ₁₁ 11 .5 ₁₂ >=12

Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/100 km]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Leistung [kW]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Hubraum [ccm]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Leergewicht [kg]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Gesamtgewicht [kg]

(21)

Changes in human (car purchase) behavior – are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

21 Swiss new registrations, 130g scenario, 2030

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 60 70 80 90 ₁₀₀ ₁₁₀ ₁₂₀ ₁₃₀ ₁₄₀ ₁₅₀ ₁₆₀ ₁₇₀ ₁₈₀ ₁₉₀ ₂₀₀ ₂₁₀ ₂₂₀ ₂₃₀ ₂₄₀ ₂₅₀ >=250

CO

2

[g/km]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 6 6. 5 7 7. 5 8 8. 5 9 9. 5 ₁₀ 10 .5 ₁₁ 11 .5 ₁₂ >=12

Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/100 km]

15% 20% 25% 30%

Leistung [kW]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Hubraum [ccm]

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 600 700 800 900 ₁₀₀₀ ₁₁₀₀ ₁₂₀₀ ₁₃₀₀ ₁₄₀₀ ₁₅₀₀ ₁₆₀₀ ₁₇₀₀ ₁₈₀₀ ₁₉₀₀ ₂₀₀₀ ₂₁₀₀ ₂₂₀₀ ₂₃₀₀ ₂₄₀₀ ₂₅₀₀ >=2500

Leergewicht [kg]

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Gesamtgewicht [kg]

Changes in human behavior for a future mobility: Are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

Dr Peter de Haan, Ernst Basler + Partner, Zollikon, Switzerland

Dr Anja Peters, ISI Fraunhofer, Karlsruhe, Germany