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Climate Policy Implications of Nonlinear Decline of Arctic Land Permafrost and Sea Ice

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Figure

Figure 1. Cumulative carbon emissions from thawing land permafrost for the CO2under the RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (magenta) scenarios out to 2300
Figure 2. Arctic SIAF as a function of the GMST rise relative to pre-industrial conditions, inferred from monthly mean sea
Figure 3. Monte-Carlo mean GMST projections relative to pre-industrial levels (thick lines) and the relevant uncertainty  following legacy values of PCF and SIAF: zero permafrost emissions and constant SIAF of 0.165 W/mranges (± 1 SD, shaded areas) obtaine
Figure 4. Absolute changes in GMST until 2300 due to PCF (left), SIAF (centre) and combined PCF & SIAF (right, solid lines) under the six climate scenarios
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