R E S E A R C H
Open Access
Stochastic ordering of Pólya random
variables and monotonicity of the
Bernstein–Stancu operator for a negative
parameter
Floren¸ta Trip¸sa
1and Nicolae R. Pascu
2**Correspondence:
2Department of Mathematics,
Kennesaw State University, Marietta, USA
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
Abstract
In the present paper, we prove that the probabilities of the Pólya urn distribution (with negative replacement) satisfy a monotonicity property similar to that of the binomial distribution. As a consequence, we show that the corresponding random variables are stochastically ordered with respect to the parameter giving the initial distribution of the urn. An equivalent formulation of this result shows that the new Bernstein–Stancu-type operator introduced in (Pascu et al. in Proc. Rom. Acad., Ser. A: Math. Phys. Tech. Sci. Inf. Sci.2019, in press) is a monotone operator.
The proofs are probabilistic in spirit and rely on various inequalities, some of which are of independent interest (e.g., a refined version of the reversed
Cauchy–Bunyakovsky–Schwarz inequality or estimates of the error of approximating an integral by the trapezoidal rule).
Keywords: Stochastic order; Pólya urn distribution; Bernstein–Stancu operator; Monotone operator
1 Introduction
The Pólya urn model (also known as the Pólya–Eggenberger urn model; see [5,9]) is an experiment in which we observe the number of white balls extracted from an urn contain-ing initiallyawhite balls andbblack balls when the extracted ball is replaced in the urn together withcballs of the same color before the next extraction.
Denoting byXna,b,cthe random variable representing the number of white balls obtained inn≥1 extractions from the urn, it can be shown (e.g., [6]) that the model is well defined (defines a distribution) fora,b≥0 andc∈Rsatisfying (n– 1)c≥–min{a,b}, and the distribution is given by
pna,,bk,c=PXna,b,c=k=Cnka
(k,c)b(n–k,c)
1(n,c) , k∈ {0, 1, . . . ,n}, (1)
wherex(0,h)= 1, andx(k,h)=x(x+h)·. . .·(x+ (k– 1)h) fork≥1 denote the rising factorial with incrementh.
In the present paper, we focus on the casea=x∈[0, 1],b= 1 –x, and the minimal choice of the replacement parameterc= –min{x, 1 –x}/(n– 1),n> 1. The reason for this choice is twofold. The first is that the limiting (negative) value ofcis an interesting problem of study from the probabilistic point of view, with applications in statistics (reliability theory). The second reason relates to the newly introduced operatorRn[7,8] defined by
Rn(f,x) =Pn–min{x,1–x}/(n–1)(f,x) =Ef
1
nX
x,1–x,–min{x,1–x}/(n–1)
n
, (2)
wherePα
ndenotes the classical Bernstein–Stancu operator (see [11] or [3] for a survey on
Bernstein–Stancu operators).
The structure of the paper is the following. Section2contains some auxiliary results of independent interest, needed in the sequel. In Lemma1, we prove an interesting inequal-ity, which may be seen as a refined version of a reversed Cauchy–Bunyakovsky–Schwarz inequality (see Remark2). In Lemma3, we give bounds for the error of approximation of an integral by trapezoidal rule in terms of the first derivative for the function (which complements theasymptotic error estimates, valid just for large values of the parameter), a useful practical result in numerical analysis. Lemma4is a technical result concerning the sign of a certain function, essential for proving our main results.
In Sect.3, we first prove that the Pólya urn probabilities satisfy a certain monotonicity property with respect to the initial urn distribution (Theorem5). Using this, in Theorem7, we show that the Pólya random variables satisfy a natural stochastic ordering (in terms of reliability theory, this shows that the correspondingsurvival functionis increasing with respect to the parameter). In Theorem8, we give an equivalent formulation of this re-sult, which shows that the operatorRnis a monotone operator, a property of the classical
Bernstein operator (see, e.g., [2]).
2 Auxiliary results
We begin with the following auxiliary result of independent interest.
Lemma 1 For integers n≥2and k∈ {1, . . . ,n– 1}and positive real numbers a1, . . . ,an, b1, . . . ,bn–kwithmax1≤i≤nai≤min1≤j≤n–kbjand
n i=1ai=
n–k
j=1 bj,we have
n
i=1
a2i <
n–k
j=1
b2j. (3)
Proof Without loss of generality, we may assume thata1≤ · · · ≤an≤b1≤ · · · ≤bn–k.
Note that n
i=1ai
n–k =
n–k j=1bj
n–k ≥b1 ≥ ai for i ∈ {1, . . . ,n}. Moreover, since k ≥ 1 and a1, . . . ,an> 0, there existsi∈ {1, . . . ,n}for whichai<
n j=1aj
n–k is a strict inequality
(other-wise, summing overi∈ {1, . . . ,n}, we would obtaink= 0). We obtain
n
i=1
a2i =
n
i=1
(ai·ai) <
1
n–k n
i=1
ai n
j=1
aj =
1
n–k
n
i=1
ai
2
and using the Cauchy–Bunyakovsky–Schwarz inequality, we conclude that
n
i=1
a2i < 1
n–k
n
i=1
ai
2 = 1
n–k
n–k
j=1
bj
2
≤ n–k
j=1
b2j.
Remark2 From inequality (3) we can obtain a reversed Cauchy–Bunyakovsky–Schwarz
inequality (see, e.g., [4]) as follows. In the notation of the previous lemma, takingbi=
1
n
n
i=1ai,i∈ {1, . . . ,n–k}, we obtain
n i=1a2i
(ni=1ai)2
≤ 1
n–k, (5)
which is especially useful whenk≥1 is small. For example, we can takek= 1 ifan≤
1
n–1 n
i=1ai, the condition which holds in particular ifp∈ {1, . . . , [ √
A/(A–a)]}of the num-bersa1, . . . ,anare equal toa> 0 andq=n–p≥1 of them are equal toA>a.
The Pólya–Szegö inequality (see, e.g., [4, Theorem 5.5]) is the following reversed Cauchy–Bunyakovsky–Schwarz inequality:
n i=1a2i
n i=1b2i
(ni=1aibi)2 ≤
1 4
AB
ab +
ab AB
2
, (6)
where 0 <a≤ai≤A<∞and 0 <b≤bi≤B<∞,i∈ {1, . . . ,n}. Takingb1=· · ·=bn= 1
(thusb=B= 1), it becomes
n i=1a2i
(ni=1ai)2 ≤
1 4n
A
a+
a A
2
(7)
for any sequence such that 0 <a≤a1≤a2≤ · · · ≤an≤A.
IfA>a(1 + 2/(√n– 1)), then the right-hand side of (7) is greater thann–11 , and therefore inequality (5) (withk= 1) improves the Pólya–Szegö inequality (under the hypotheses considered).
We will also need the following auxiliary result, which gives bounds for the error of approximation of an integral by the trapezoidal rule in terms of the first derivative of a function. Before stating the result, we note that such a result is known, but only in the asymptotic case (asymptotic error estimate): denoting byEN(f) the exact error andE˜N(f) =
1
12N2(f(1) –f(0)), we havelimN→∞EN(f)/E˜N(f) = 1 (see [1, Sect. 5.1]), whereas our result
below shows that 0≤EN(f)≤4N12(f(1) –f(0)) for allN≥1.
Lemma 3 Suppose f ∈C3([0, 1])is such that f,f,f,f≥0on[0, 1].Then for any integer
N≥1,we have
0≤
N
i=0
f
i N
–N
1
0
f(t)dt–f(0) +f(1)
2 ≤
f(1) –f(0)
Figure 1TrapezoidsTiandTiin the proof of Lemma3. Area(Ti)
≤xi+1
xi f(x)dx≤Area(Ti)
Proof Sincefis convex, the sum of the areas of trapezoidsT0, . . . ,TN–1(see Fig.1) is larger than the area under the graph off, and thus
1
0
f(t)dt≤ N–1
i=0
f(xi) +f(xi+1)
2 ·
1
N
, (9)
wherexi=Ni,i∈ {0, 1, . . . ,N}, which proves the left inequality in (8).
Sincef is convex, the tangent line to the graph off atxilies below the graph off, and
therefore the sum of the areas of the corresponding trapezoidsTiis smaller than the area underf (see Fig.1). Summing overi∈ {0, 1, . . . ,N– 1}, we obtain
N–1
i=0
f(xi) +yi
2 ·
1
N
≤
1
0
f(t)dt,
whereyi=f(xi) +f(xi)·N1, or, equivalently,
N
1
0
f(t)dt≥ N–1
i=0
f(xi) +f(xi) +f (x
i)
N
2 =
N–1
i=0
f(xi) +
1 2N
N–1
i=0
f(xi),
and therefore
N
i=0
f(xi)≤f(1) +
1 2Nf
(1) +N 1
0
f(t)dt– 1 2N
N
i=0
f(xi).
Using inequality (9) withf replaced byf, we obtain
N
i=0
f(xi)≤f(1) +
1 2Nf
(1) +N 1
0
f(t)dt– 1 2N
N
i=0
f(xi)
≤f(1) + 1 2Nf
(1) +N 1
0
f(t)dt– 1 2N
N
1
0
f(t)dt+f
(0) +f(1)
2
=N
1
0
f(t)dt+f(0) +f(1)
2 +
f(1) –f(0) 4N ,
concluding the proof.
Lemma 4 For any integers n≥2and k∈ {0, . . . ,n– 1},there exists xn,k∈[kn–1–1,nk–1]such
that the function
ϕn,k(x) = n–1
i=0 1 1 –n–1i x–
n–k–1
i=0 1
1 –x–n–1i x, x∈
0, n– 1 2n–k– 2
, (10)
is positive on(0,xn,k)and negative on(xn,k,2nn––1k–2).
Proof Under the hypotheses onnandk, it is easy to verify that kn–1–1<nk<2nn––1k–2 ≤1 (the last inequality is strict ifk<n– 1).
Ifk= 0, then since 1 1–x–n–1i x>
1
1–n–1i xfori∈ {0, . . . ,n– 1}andx∈(0,
1
2), we haveϕn,0(x) < 0 forx∈(0,12), and the claim holds withxn,0= 0∈[–n1–1, 0].
Ifk=n– 1, then we haveϕn,n–1(x) = n–2
i=0 1–1i n–1x
> 0 forx∈[0, 1), and the claim holds
withxn,n–1= 1∈[nn–2–1, 1].
Assume now thatn> 2 andk∈ {1, . . . ,n– 2}. We will first show that ifϕn,k(x) = 0, then
ϕn,k(x) < 0 (note thatϕn,k(0) =k> 0 and thusx= 0).
We have
ϕn,k(x) =
n–1
i=0
i n–1 (1 –n–1i x)2–
n–k–1
i=0
1 +n–1i (1 –x–n–1i x)2
=1
x
n–1
i=0
–(1 –xn–1i ) + 1 (1 –n–1i x)2 –
n–k–1
i=0
–(1 –x(1 +n–1i )) + 1 (1 –x–n–1i x)2
= –1
xϕn,k(x) +
1
x
n–1
i=0 1 (1 –n–1i x)2–
n–k–1
i=0
1
(1 –x–n–1i x)2 .
Ifϕn,k(x) = 0, then we obtainϕn,k(x) =1x(
n–1
i=0 (1– 1i n–1x)2
–ni=0–k–1 1
(1–x–n–1i x)2), and we are
left to prove the implication
n–1
i=0 1 1 –n–1i x=
n–k–1
i=0 1
1 –x–n–1i x ⇒ n–1
i=0 1 (1 –n–1i x)2 <
n–k–1
i=0
1 (1 –x–n–1i x)2.
Choosingai+1=1–1i n–1x
,i∈ {0, . . . ,n– 1}, andbj+1= 1
1–x–n–1j x,j∈ {0, . . . ,n–k– 1}, we have max1≤i≤nai=an=1–1x =b1=min1≤j≤n–kbj, and the implication follows from Lemma1,
concluding the proof of the claim.
We showed thatϕn,k(x) = 0 impliesϕn,k(x) < 0. Sinceϕn,kis continuously differentiable,
a moment’s thought shows that this condition implies thatϕn,kcan change signs at most
once on the interval [0,2nn––1k–2).
Sinceϕn,k(0) =n– (n–k) =k> 0 andlimx2nn––1k–2ϕn,k(x) = –∞, the functionϕn,kchanges
sign on [0,2nn––1k–2); letxn,kdenote its unique root. We are left to show thatxn,kbelongs to
Using Lemma3with N=n– 1 andf(t) = 1–1tx, respectively, withN =n–k– 1 and
f(t) = 1 1–x–tn–n–1k–1x
, we obtain:
ϕn,k(x)≤
(n– 1)
1
0 1 1 –txdt+
1 +1–1x
2 +
x
(1–x)2 –x
4(n– 1)
–
(n–k– 1) 1
0
1
1 –x–txn–nk–1–1 dt+
1 1–x+
1 1–x–n–nk–1–1x
2
=
–n– 1
x ln(1 –x) +
1 +1–1x
2 +
x
(1–x)2 –x
4(n– 1)
–
–n– 1
x ln
1 –x–n–n–1k–1x
1 –x +
1 1–x+
1 1–x–n–n–1k–1x
2
=1 2
1 – 1
1 –x–n–k–1
n–1 x
+ x
2(2 –x)
4(n– 1)(1 –x)2 +
n– 1
x ln
1 –x–n–k–1
n–1 x (1 –x)2 .
In particular, forx=n–1k , we obtainϕn,k(n–1k )≤k(2n–k–2)(k–2(n–1) 2)
4(n–1)2(n–k–1)2 < 0, which shows that xn,k<nk–1.
To obtain the lower bound forxn,k, first note that fork= 1, the claim is trivial (ϕn,1(0) = 1 > 0, and thusxn,1> 0), so we may assume thatk∈ {2, . . . ,n– 1}.
Using again Lemma3with the same choices as before, we obtain
ϕn,k(x)≥
(n– 1)
1
0 1 1 –txdt+
1 + 1 1–x
2
–
(n–k– 1) 1
0
1
1 –x–txn–n–1k–1 dt
+ 1 1–x+
1 1–x–n–n–1k–1x
2 +
n–k–1
n–1 x
(1–x–n–nk–1–1x)2 –
n–k–1
n–1 x
(1–x)2
4(n–k– 1)
=
–n– 1
x ln(1 –x) +
1 +1–1x 2
–
–n– 1
x ln
1 –x–n–nk–1–1x
1 –x
+ 1 1–x+
1 1–x–n–n–1k–1x
2 +
n–k–1
n–1 x
(1–x–n–nk–1–1x)2 –
n–k–1
n–1 x
(1–x)2
4(n–k– 1)
= 1 2
1 – 1
1 –x–n–k–1
n–1 x
–
1 (1 –x–n–k–1
n–1 x)2
– 1
(1 –x)2
x
4(n– 1)
+n– 1
x ln
1 –x–n–k–1
n–1 x (1 –x)2 .
To simplify the following computation, denoteA= (nn––1k)2,B= k–1
(n–1)2, andC=AB=
(n–k)2 k–1 . Forx=kn–1–1, the inequality becomes
ϕn,k
k– 1
n– 1
≥ 1
2
1 – 1
A+B
–
1 (A+B)2 –
1 A2 B 4 + 1 Bln
A+B A = 1 2+ 1 B – 1
2(1 +C)– 1 4(1 +C)2 +
1 4C2 +ln
1 + 1
C
Since
d dC
– 1
2(1 +C)– 1 4(1 +C)2 +
1 4C2+ln
1 + 1
C
=
1 2(1 +C)2 –
1
C(1 +C)
+
1 2(1 +C)3 –
1 2C3
< 0
andlimC→∞(–2(1+1C)–4(1+1C)2 +4C12 +ln(1 +C1)) = 0, we conclude that (–2(1+1C)–4(1+1C)2 +
1
4C2+ln(1 +C1)) > 0 for allC> 0.
From this and from the previous inequality we obtainxn,k>kn–1–1, concluding the proof.
3 Main results
We can now prove the first main result.
Theorem 5 For arbitrarily fixed integers n≥ 2 and k ∈ {0, 1, . . . ,n}, the probability
pn,k(x) =pxn,1–,k x,–min{x,1–x}/(n–1)given by(1)increases for x∈[0,x∗n,k]and decreases for x∈
[x∗n,k, 1],where
x∗n,k= ⎧ ⎪ ⎪ ⎨ ⎪ ⎪ ⎩
xn,k if k≤n–12 ,
1
2 if
n–1 2 <k<
n+1 2 , 1 –xn,n–k if k≥n+12 ,
(11)
and xn,k∈[nk–1–1,nk–1]is given by Lemma4.
Proof First, note thatpn,0(x) = n–1
i=0
(1–x–imin{x,1–x}/(n–1))
1–imin{x,1–x}/(n–1) is a decreasing function ofx∈[0, 1] (each factor decreases inx), and, similarly,pn,n(x) =ni=0–1(x–i
min{x,1–x}/(n–1))
1–imin{x,1–x}/(n–1) is an increasing function ofx∈[0, 1] (each factor increases inx). The claim of the theorem therefore holds in the casesk= 0 andk=n(x∗n,0=xn,0= 0 andx∗n,n= 1 –xn,0= 1, respectively), and we can assume thatk∈ {1, . . . ,n– 1}.
Forx∈(0, 1/2), in the notation of Lemma4, we have
d
dxlnpn,k(x) = d dx
lnCnk+
k–1
i=0
ln
x– i
n– 1x
+
n–k–1
i=0
ln
1 –x– i
n– 1x
–
n–k–1
i=0
ln
1 – i
n– 1x
=k
x+ n–k–1
i=0
–(1 +n–1i ) 1 –x–n–1i x–
n–1
i=0 –n–1i 1 –n–1i x
=k
x+
1
x n–k–1
i=0
1 – (1 +n–1i )x– 1 1 –x–n–1i x –
1
x n–1
i=0
1 –n–1i x– 1 1 –n–1i x
=k
x+ n–k
x –
1
x n–k–1
i=0 1 1 –x–n–1i x–
n
x +
1
x n–1
i=0 1 1 –n–1i x
=1
and a similar computation shows
d
dxlnpn,k(x) = –
1
1 –xϕn,n–k(1 –x), x∈(1/2, 1) (13)
(alternatively, to derive this, we can use the relationpn,k(x) =pn,n–k(1 –x), valid for x∈
[0, 1],n≥2, andk∈ {0, 1, . . . ,n}).
It remains to show that the information about the sign of ϕn,k(x) given by Lemma4
translates into the monotonicity ofpn,k(x) indicated in the statement of the theorem.
Note that by Lemma4we have
xn,k∈
k– 1
n– 1,
k n– 1
for alln≥2 andk∈ {1, . . . ,n– 1}. (14)
If nk–1 ≤12, then Lemma4and (12) show thatpn,k increases on [0,xn,k] and decreases
on [xn,k, 1/2] (note thatxn,k≤ 12 by (14) in this case). Sincexn,n–k≥ nn––1k–1 = 1 –nk–1 ≥12,
the functionϕn,n–k(x) is positive forx∈[0, 1/2]⊂[0,xn,n–k], and from (13) it follows that pn,kdecreases on [1/2, 1]. Sincepn,kis a continuous function on [0, 1], it follows thatpn,k
increases on [0,xn,k] and decreases on [xn,k, 1], and therefore the claim of the theorem
holds in this case withx∗n,k=xn,k.
If kn–1–1 ≥12, then Lemma4and (12) show thatpn,kincreases on [0, 1/2]⊂[0,xn,k] (note
thatxn,k≥ 12 by (14) in this case). Sincexn,n–k≤ nn––1k = 1 –kn–1–1 ≤12, the functionϕn,n–k(x)
is positive forx∈[0,xn,n–k]⊂[0, 1/2] and negative forx∈[xn,n–k, 1/2], and from (13) it
follows thatpn,k increases on [12, 1 –xn,n–k] and decreases on [1 –xn,n–k, 1]. Sincepn,k(x)
is a continuous function ofx∈[0, 1], it follows thatpn,k increases on [0, 1 –xn,n–k] and
decreases on [1 –xn,n–k, 1], and therefore the claim of the theorem holds in this case with x∗n,k= 1 –xn,n–k.
We are left to consider the case nk–1–1 <12 <n–1k or, equivalently, n–12 <k<n–12 + 1. Ifnis odd, then the previous double inequality is not satisfied for any integerk, so assume that
n= 2mis even. The previous double inequality givesm–12<k<m+12, which is satisfied only fork=m. We have
2m–1
i=0 1 1 –n–1i ·12 >
m–1
j=0
1 1 –n2–1j ·1
2
+ 1
1 –n2–1j ·1 2
= 2
m–1
j=0 1 1 –n–1j ,
and therefore
ϕ2m,m
1 2
= 2m–1
i=0 1 1 –n–1i ·12 –
m–1
j=0 1 1 2–
j n–1·
1 2
> 0.
Sinceϕn,k=ϕ2m,m=ϕn,n–kin this case, the previous inequality shows thatxn,k=x2m,m= xn,n–k>12 (thusϕn,k=ϕn,n–kare positive on (0,12]). Using (12) and (13), we conclude that pn,kincreases on [0,12] and decreases on [12, 1], and thus the claim of the theorem holds
withx∗n,k=1
2in this case, concluding the proof.
Remark6 Sincepn,k(x) =pn,n–k(1 –x) forx∈[0, 1], from the previous theorem it follows
Moeover, note that sincexn,k∈[kn–1–1,n–1k ], from (11) it follows that we also havex∗n,k∈
[kn–1–1,n–1k ] for alln≥2 andk∈ {0, 1, . . . ,n}.
We are now ready to prove the main result. Recall that a random variableXis smaller than a random variableYin the usual stochastic order (denotedX≤stY; see, e.g., [10]) if the corresponding distribution functionsFXandFY satisfyFX(x)≥FY(x) for allx∈R.
Theorem 7 For any n≥2,the random variables Xnx,1–x,–min{x,1–x}/(n–1)with Pólya urn dis-tribution given by(1)and parameter x∈[0, 1]satisfy the following stochastic ordering:
Xnx,1–x,–min{x,1–x}/(n–1)≤stXny,1–y,–min{x,1–y}/(n–1), 0≤x≤y≤1.
Proof Fix n ≥2 and denote by Fx the distribution function of the random variable
Xnx,1–x,–min{x,1–x}/(n–1),x∈[0, 1]. To prove the claim, it suffices to show that, for anyk∈ {0, 1, . . . ,n},Fx(k) is a decreasing function ofx∈[0, 1], and we will prove this inductively
onk.
SinceFx(0) =P(Xnx,1–x,–min{x,1–x}/(n–1)= 0) =pn,0(x) is a decreasing function ofx∈[0, 1] (by Theorem5), the claim holds fork= 0.
Assume now that the claim is true fork– 1, that is,Fx(k– 1) is decreasing inx∈[0, 1].
Theorem 5shows that pn,k(x) is a decreasing function of x∈[x∗n,k, 1], and therefore Fx(k) =Fx(k– 1) +pn,k(x) is decreasing forx∈[x∗n,k, 1].
Considering nowx∈[0,x∗n,k], we observe that
Fx(k) = k
i=0
pn,i(x) = 1 – n
i=k+1
pn,n–i(1 –x) = 1 – n–k–1
i=0
pn,i(1 –x). (15)
Using Remark6, we obtainx∗n,k+x∗n,n–k–1≤ n–1k +n–nk–1–1= 1, and it follows that, forx∈
[0,x∗n,k], we have
1 –x≥1 –x∗n,k≥x∗n,n–k–1≥x∗n,i, i∈ {0, 1, . . . ,n–k– 1}, (16)
since by Remark6we havex∗n,i≤n–1i ≤x∗n,i+1fori∈ {0, 1, . . .n– 1}.
Using (15) and (16), together with the monotonicity ofpn,igiven by Theorem5, it follows
thatFx(k) is also decreasing forx∈[0,x∗n,k], concluding the proof of the theorem.
It is known (e.g., [10], p. 4) that the stochastic comparisonX≤stY is equivalent to
Ef(X)≤Ef(Y) for all increasing functionsf for which the expectations exist.
Using this and definition (2) of the operatorRn, we can restate the theorem as follows.
Theorem 8 The operator Rndefined by(2)is a monotone operator,that is,if f : [0, 1]→R is increasing(decreasing),then Rn(f,·) : [0, 1]→Ris also increasing(decreasing).
Acknowledgements Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Authors’ contributions
Not applicable (this is a joint work of the authors, and it is difficult to pinpoint the exact contribution of each author). All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Author details
1Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Transilvania University of Bra¸sov, Bra¸sov, Romania.2Department of
Mathematics, Kennesaw State University, Marietta, USA.
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Received: 28 September 2018 Accepted: 18 February 2019
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