Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program s 10-Year Goal to Reduce Weather- Related Accidents by 80 Percent

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Making Aviation Safer: Results of the

National Aviation Weather Program’s

10-Year Goal to Reduce

Weather-Related Accidents by 80 Percent

Jud Stailey

, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

October 9, 2008

Friends/Partners of

Aviation Weather

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Overview

• Background

• Mid-Course

Assessment

• Final Assessment

–

FAR Definitions

–

Hazard Categories

–

Ten-year Trends

–

By Hazard Category

• Way Ahead

Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin

Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA

Courtesy of Southwest Airlines

Courtesy of NATA © NATA

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Background

• NRC –

Aviation Weather Services – A Call for Federal

Leadership and Action

– 1995

• White House Commission on Aviation Safety and

Security – 1997

–

Goal: Reduce fatal accidents by 80% in 10 years

• National Aviation Weather Program (NAWP)

Strategic

Plan

– 1997

• NAWP

Initiatives

– 1999

• Programs/Projects

–

Baseline – 2001

–

Update – 2003

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Mid-Course Assessment - 2003

• Included accident data 1996-2001

• Established trends for all weather-related and

fatal weather-related accidents

• Reviewed status of programs/projects in

context of accident trends

• Conclusions & Recommendations

•Sustaining risk reduction success in general aviation

•Further analysis into impact of weather hazards on smaller commercial carriers

•Reducing risk from turbulence and convection hazards

•Reducing risk from high density altitude

•Sustaining investment in programs/projects for near-term improvements

•Sustaining investment in R&D to continue longer-term improvements

Focus areas to move forward

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Final Assessment

• Received final NTSB accident data

through 2006 in Spring 2008

• Analysis of the full ten years using

same approach used in the

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Final Assessment

Categories of aviation operations were

considered separately:

•

Part 91 : All aviation other than military or

commercial

•

Part 121 : Major passenger airlines and cargo

carriers that fly large transport-category aircraft in

revenue service

•

Part 135 : Scheduled passenger service in aircraft

with fewer than ten seats and nonscheduled

operations—revenue-earning flights in which the

departure time, departure location and destination

are negotiated with the customer

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Final Assessment

Hazard Categories:

• Restricted Visibility and Ceiling (7)

• Precipitation (non-icing) (3)

• Icing Conditions (4)

• Turbulence and Convection (17)

• Temperature and Lift (6)

• En Route and Terminal Winds (4)

• Electrical (2)

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Accident Trends

Significant progress in meeting the

10-year accident reduction goal

RATE TRENDS

Part 91:

All

Part 121:

Part 135 Fatal

Wx-related

All causes

17% 17% 17% 63% 7% 49% 33% 30% 23% 37%

Fatal

All

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0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Accidents per

100,000

Flight-Hours

All weather-related accidents Weather-related fatal

2006 goal = 0.08 2006 trend = 0.23 2006 goal = 0.34 2006 trend = 1.12

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Part 91, Trend for Category A, Restricted Visibility and Ceiling Hazards 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Fatal Accidents All Accidents

2006 goal = 0.10 2006 trend = 0.21

2006 goal = 0.08 2006 trend = 0.18

Weath e r Factor Cites per 100,0 0 0 Flight-Hou rs

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Part 91, Trend for Category D, Turbulence and Convection Hazards 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Weather Factor Cites

per

100,000

Flight-Hours

2006 goal = 0.15 2006 trend = 0.41

2006 goal = 0.02 2006 trend = 0.05

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Part 91, Trend for Category F, En Route and Terminal Winds 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

per

100,000

Flight-Hours

2006 goal = 0.16 2006 trend = 0.47

2006 goal = 0.015 2006 trend = 0.022

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Part 121: Trends for all weather hazards and for turbulence & convection hazards

0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180 0.200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

All Turbulence and convection hazards

2006 goal = 0.025 2006 trend = 0.084

2006 goal = 0.023 2006 trend = 0.077

per

100,000

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The Way Ahead

• Continue to collect and analyze annual data

• Investigate timing and potential effectiveness of

programs/projects in light of trends (including those

completed before 1997)

• Consider continuing to identify and track programs/

projects

Objective:

Sustain progress to date, remove barriers to

reducing accident rates further, and provide

an effective system for NextGen transition.

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NTSB Factors and Weather Categories

Restricted visibility and ceiling:

•Below approach/landing mins

•Clouds

•Fog

•Haze/smoke

•Low ceiling

•Obscuration •Whiteout Precipitation (non-icing): •Rain •Snow •Drizzle/mist Icing conditions:

•Icing conditions

•Ice fog

•Freezing rain

•Carburetor icing

Turbulence and convection:

•Turbulence (thunderstorm)

•Thunderstorm

•Thunderstorm outflow

•Microburst (dry)

•Microburst (wet)

•Updraft

•Downdraft

•Gusts

•Wind shear

•Dust Devil/Whirlwind

•Variable wind

•Sudden wind shift

•Mountain Wave

•Turbulence

•Turbulence, clear air

•Turbulence in clouds

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NTSB Factors and Weather Categories (Cont’d)

Temperature and lift:

•Temperature inversion

•High density altitude

•Temperature, high

•Temperature, low

•Thermal lift

•No thermal lift

En route and terminal winds:

•Unfavorable wind

•Crosswind

•Tail wind

•High wind

Electrical:

•Lightning

•Static discharge

Airborne solids:

•Sand/dust storm

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National Aviation Weather Program

Strat Plan

Initiatives

User Forum

Training

Mid-Course Assessment

Volc Ash Conference

Programs & Projects Update