Münchener Rück Munich Re Group
Renewal 2003
MR Reinsurance Group
February, 28
th2003
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Contents
Overview
Market View
Reinsurance Group
Outlook
Overview
Overview
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Over 14% premium increase on renewed business underlines continuing focus on margin growth
Underwriting discipline leads to further portfolio enhancements Continuing hard market
Tight terms & conditions to limit risk
Rate increases often coincide with improved conditions Buying patterns characterised by budget constraints
Highlights
5 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
This year again double digit rate increases expected,
notwithstanding major improvements in previous renewal season Drivers of rate improvements are most lines of business,
with casualty in the lead
Reinsurance rate increases on top of primary insurers’ rate increases Ongoing hard market conditions - harder market to come?
Pricing
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Increased retention of primary insurances under proportional and XL
Continuation of introduction of event limits (e.g. nat. cat., workers comp.)
Further limitation of terrorism risks Exclusion of non-compulsory
unlimited covers in motor third party liability (illimité)
Reduction of commission rates in most lines of business
Terms and Conditions
OVERVIEW
Sustained positive effect on portfolio
Market View
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Investment returns no longer compensate for poor underwriting results Economic outlook remains subdued and constrains the outlook
for the insurance industry
Trend of rising risks and potential losses:
insurance needs to be rethought and repriced in society
Realised risk profiles for assets resulting in revised scenarios Severe investment losses for insurers reduce capacity
Market withdrawals, losses from the past and increased credit risks in the insurance sector further reduce capacity
Technical rates in many markets still not sufficient
Seven Reasons for a Continuing Hard Market
9 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Cycle Management at Munich Re
We analyse
“macro“ level
Global factors, e.g.
- price trends (direct and reinsurance)
- worldwide capacity - competitors behaviour
(strategies)
- prices in ART markets - capital markets perspective - macroeconomic factors
Individual market trends, e.g.
- per regional market (direct and reinsurance)
- per line of business - in facultative business - competitors behaviour in
individual markets
“micro“ level
Value Based Management and Capital Allocation Model
Customised portfolio strategy defined by the operational divisions – per region – per line of business – per client Client segmentation Global cycle view and strategy
If you adhere to profound underwriting you'll outperform the cycle
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Munich Re – The Preferred Reinsurer
When thinking of quality non-life reinsurance companies, which one(s) is / are the best overall?
88 82 41 35 30 28 25 17 0 30 60 90 2002 2000 Munich Re in %
Flaspöhler Customer Research January 2003
Reinsurance Group
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
January Renewal 2003 (Premiums Written)
0 20 40 60 80 100 Total
portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year
Total renewable Renewals later January renewals in % 21 79 4 65 100 75 10 REINSURANCE GROUP
13 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Total portfolio in 2002 consisting of 21% facultative business and 79% treaty business
Deducting the 4% multi-year business from the total treaty business we end up with 75% of our total treaty business renewable
10% of total portfolio has later renewal dates (mainly Asia and the Americas)
Overall 65% of our total portfolio is renewable in January
65% of Total Portfolio up for Renewal
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Changes in Premium
0 25 50 75 100 125 Total 2002renewable Cancelled Renewed
Increase on
renewable New business
Total 2003 est. outcome 16.4 83.6 9 104.5 100 in % 11.9 MR Total REINSURANCE GROUP This represents 14,2% of renewed, thereof 11% rate increase 3,2% share increase
Business Units /
Lines of Business
Business Units /
Business Units /
Lines of Business
Lines of Business
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Focus on property and casualty business
Single digit premium growth shows the restrictive underwriting which is focused on profitability
Renewal in Germany focused on rate increases and improved terms & conditions (e.g. terrorism clause, abolition of illimité coverage)
Overall reduction of the commission ratio by 2 to 3 %-points differing by market
Improvements in terms & conditions through reduction of nat. cat. exposure
Business Units – Europe
17 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Business Units – Asia, Australasia, Africa
Focus on property, casualty and marine business
Balanced premium growth because of economic downturn, political dangers (e.g. Iraq) and terrorism
Terms & conditions improved by the introduction of event limits and changes of exposures (e.g. nat. perils exposure reduced)
Some treaty renewals still outstanding (e.g. Japan as of April 1st)
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Focus on property and casualty
Continued rise of primary and reinsurance rates e.g. due to Sep. 11th
claims and unprofitable underwriting over the prior years Major portfolio enhancement and restructuring enforced Treaty coverages have become more restrictive in nat. cat. Finalised terrorism guideline with specified terrorism budgets
Shift from pro-rata coverages into higher layer excess coverages to meet more restrictive underwriting guidelines
Business Units – American Re
19 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Business Units – Corporate Clients
Double digit premium increases in the range of 10% to 25% achieved with all clients
Majority of treaties renewed on tighter terms and conditions (e.g. exclusion of toxic mould, reduction of terrorism exposure, introduction of event limits) Reinsurance price increases compound with primary price increases
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Focus on aviation, space and credit & bonding business
After very successful renewal 2002 aviation rates are levelling off
Reduced market capacity in space will keep the rates on a risk adequate level
Rate improvements in credit & bonding XL business up to 25% in addition to commission reduction of up to 5% in proportional reinsurance
Additional reduction of limits and coverage (e.g. change from automatic coverage into facultative requests), shortening of payment period for XL installments
Business Units – Special and Financial Risks
21 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Property – Overview
Pricing:
Substantial rate improvement (20-25%) in primary markets, especially in industrial lines
Working XL reinsurance: further rate increases up to 15% in all property lines
In cat-covers: only slight increases on an already high rating level Proportional reinsurance: besides the increase in original rates the reduction of reinsurance commissions will positively influence the combined ratio
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Property – Overview
Terms & conditions:
General exclusion of terrorism on risks in excess of €50m
Relief in terrorism exposure due to GAREAT (French terrorism pool), Extremus (German terrorism pool) and TRIA (US terrorism pool)
Extension of scope of cover of Pool Re (UK terrorism pool) In general increase of retentions for all types of treaties Substantial increase in deductibles in primary markets
Limitation of liabilities under contingent business interruption
23 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Property – January Renewals
(Premiums Written)
0 20 40 60 80 100 Totalportfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year
Total renewable Renewals later January renewals in % 25 75 69 59 100 6 10
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Property – Changes in Premium
0 25 50 75 100 125 100 13.5 86.5 8.2 101.2 in % 6.5 Total Property
BUSINESS UNITS / LoB
This represents 7,5% of renewed, thereof 6,6% rate increase 0,9% share increase Total 2002
renewable Cancelled Renewed
Increase on
renewable New business
Total 2003 est. outcome
25 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Casualty – Overview
Pricing:
Substantial rate improvement in primary markets, especially in industrial lines; sometimes by up to 50% and more (e.g. pharmaceuticals, medical malpractice)
XL reinsurance: again significant rate increases in all casualty lines
In personal accident / workers comp. cat. covers increases of up to 100% were necessary and could be achieved
Proportional reinsurance: besides the increase in original rates the
reduction of reinsurance commissions will positively influence the combined ratio
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Terms & conditions:
Abolition of non-compulsory unlimited covers in motor third party liability; further restrictions to follow
Increase of companies retentions under XL and proportional business Further improvements in index clauses (move away from severe inflation clause)
Continuation of introduction of aggregate limits and/or limited number of reinstatements
Under XL treaties substantial reduction of exposures from occupational diseases through introduction of ACOD clause (one man one occurrence)
Lines of Business – Casualty – Overview
27 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Casualty – January Renewals
(Premiums Written)
0 20 40 60 80 100 Totalportfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year
Total renewable Renewals later January renewals in % 19 81 79 72 100 2 7
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Casualty – Changes in Premium
0 25 50 75 100 125 100 16.8 12.9 112.3 in % 16.2 Total Casualty 83.2
BUSINESS UNITS / LoB
This represents 19,5% of renewed, thereof 15,3% rate increase 4,2% share increase Total 2002
renewable Cancelled Renewed
Increase on
renewable New business
Total 2003 est. outcome
29 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Pricing:
In some segments prices are still not risk adequate Primary rates improved up to 40%
XL: In the third consecutive year substantial improvement of terms. Up to 30% rate increases with significant retention increases
Terms & conditions:
Limitation of terror risks
Reintroduction of refinery exclusion clause (exclusion of on-shore energy risks from off-shore policies)
Exclusion of isolated storage risks (except facultative with special pricing and risk survey in accordance with property standards)
Lines of Business – Marine – Overview
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
(Premiums Written)
0 20 40 60 80 100 Totalportfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year
Total renewable Renewals later January renewals in % 5 95 90 81 100 5 9
31 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Marine – Changes in Premium
0 25 50 75 100 125 100 13.6 3.7 95.9 in % 5.8 Total Marine 86.4
BUSINESS UNITS / LoB
All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates This represents 6,7% of renewed, thereof 4,7% rate increase 2,0% share increase Total 2002
renewable Cancelled Renewed
Increase on
renewable New business
Total 2003 est. outcome
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Pricing:
General improvements by 5% and more in prices Rate increase in XL up to 25%
Terms & conditions:
Reduction of limits and coverage
Up to 5% reduced commission rate expected due to switch from fixed rates to sliding scales
Capacity:
Shortage mainly in proportional business and special products. For XL enough capacity available
Economic Situation:
Primary insurers have taken measures to meet increasing insolvency rates (e.g. reduction of automatic limits, higher retentions of insured)
Lines of Business – Credit – Overview
33 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
0 20 40 60 80 100 Total
portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year
Total renewable Renewals later January renewals
Lines of Business – Credit – January Renewals
(Premiums Written)
in %
10 90 88 83
100 2 5
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Credit – Changes in Premium
0 25 50 75 100 125 100 15.9 8 99.8 Total Credit 84.1 in % 7.7
BUSINESS UNITS / LoB
This represents 9,5% of renewed, thereof 5% rate increase 4,5% share increase Total 2002
renewable Cancelled Renewed
Increase on
renewable New business
Total 2003 est. outcome
35 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Aviation / Space – Overview
Aviation
Fac. / direct market / facultative reinsurance:
Strong rate increases in first 4 months 2002, in 4th quarter due to massive
market capacity we noticed accelerating rate reductions, starting with 10% in October and reaching 30% in December
XL:
Higher market capacity due to newcomers. Price increases by 10%
Increase of strategic co-operation with leading aviation underwriting pool In total premium volume 2003 almost stable
Space (no specific renewal date)
Fewer satellite launches planned in 2003
Reduced market capacity will keep the prices on a risk adequate level
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK 0 20 40 60 80 100 Total
portfolio Facultative Total treaty Multi year
Total renewable Renewals later January renewals
January Renewals (Premiums Written)
in %
46 54 53 42
100 1 11
37 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Lines of Business – Aviation – Changes in Premium
0 25 50 75 100 125 100 16.9 83.1 7.3 3.3 93.7 Total Aviation in %
BUSINESS UNITS / LoB
All numbers on 2003 renewals contain estimates
This represents 8,8%
of renewed, thereof - 9,1% rate increase
17,9% share increase
Total 2002
renewable Cancelled Renewed
Increase on
renewable New business
Total 2003 est. outcome
39 Munich Re
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Outlook
Market to remain firm with further rate increases to be expected where risk adequate pricing not yet achieved… (e.g. casualty, commercial lines)
…or where available capacity is scarce
Firm intention to go for underwriting profit throughout the cycle, even more so as capital markets are weak
OUTLOOK
OVERVIEW MARKET VIEW REINSURANCE GROUP BUSINESS UNITS / LoB OUTLOOK
Investor Relations Contacts
For information please contact:
Pedro Janeiro Martins Phone: +49 (0) 89 3891 3910 Head of Investor Relations E-mail: pmartins@munichre.com Stefanie Gampe Phone: +49 (0) 89 3891 3910
E-mail: sgampe@munichre.com Ingrid Grunwald Phone: +49 (0) 89 3891 3517
E-mail: igrunwald@munichre.com Christian Jacobi Phone: +49 (0) 89 3891 2376
E-mail: cjacobi@munichre.com Ralf Kleinschroth Phone: +49 (0) 89 3891 4559
E-mail: rkleinschroth@munichre.com Monika Schindler Phone: +49 (0) 89 3891 3901
E-mail: mschindler@munichre.com Fax: +49 (0) 89 3891 9888
E-mail: InvestorRelations@munichre.com Internet: www.munichre.com