Volume 9 Issue 9 PowerS’ pickS September 9-13, 2021 © 2021 BP Sports, LLC $15
CFB Best Bets now 42-25-1 63% Last 2 Years!
CFB Week 2 Best Bets Pg 3, NFL Best Bets Pg 8
Powers’ Picks #1 Newsletter Last 6 Years!!
Week 1 News and Notes!
For those of you that are new, in this section we’ll recap what happened last week specifically, the misleading finals, the key injuries, the bad beats and the line moves.
We’ll include most of these recaps here, therefore you don’t have to waste time reading about them in my game-by-game write-ups for the upcoming week. Without further adieu, here’s a run down of what happened last week in the world of CFB.
Week 0/1 Trends
Favorites-Dogs Straight Up 69-20
ATS 39-47-3
Home-Away Straight Up 62-19
ATS 39-39-3
Totals (O/U) Over-Under 31-57-1
Season To-Date Favorites-Dogs Straight Up 69-20
ATS 39-47-3
Home-Away Straight Up 62-19
ATS 39-39-3
Totals (O/U) Over-Under 31-57-1 Largest Favorites to Cover:
Buffalo (-43.5) vs Wagner, 69-7 Boston College (-42.5) vs Colgate, 51-0 Nebraska (-42) vs Fordham, 52-7 Pittsburgh (-37.5) vs Massachusetts, 51-7 Auburn (-37.5) vs Akron, 60-10 FIU (-35) vs Long Island, 48-10 Liberty (-35) vs Campbell, 48-7 Biggest Money line Upsets:
Montana +1100 won 13-7 at Washington (+22.5) UC Davis +1060 won 19-17 at Tulsa (+22) East Tennessee St +920 won 23-3 at Vanderbilt (+21) Northern Illinois +710 won 22-21 at Georgia Tech (+19) Utah St +605 won 26-23 at Washington St (+17)
ATS Notables
Biggest Cover Margins:
East Tennessee St +41 ATS points at Vanderbilt in a 23-3 upset win (+21) Marshall +39 ATS points at Navy in a 49-7 win (-3)
Army +35.5 ATS points at Georgia St in a 43-10 upset win (+2.5) Rutgers +33 ATS points vs Temple in a 61-14 win (-14)
The Georgia/Clemson game went UNDER the total by 38.5 points!
The North Carolina/Virginia Tech game went UNDER the total by 36.5 points!
If you have blindly bet the UNDER in every college football game so far this season (involving an FBS team): Congrats, you are 57-31-1 (65%)!
UCLA is 2-0 ATS this year +14.3 ppg. The rest of the Pac-12 is 2-9 ATS -9.4 ppg.
Misleading Finals
UCF beat Boise St 36-31 and failed to cover as 6-point favorites. However, UCF had a dominant 573-312 yard edge including 258-49 on the ground. An early 100- yard “Pick 6” TD for Boise St was the dreaded 14-point swing.
Charlotte (+6.5) upset Duke 31-28. However, the Blue Devils had a 580-478 yard edge and a 7.9-6.8 yards per play edge. Charlotte benefitted from a +2 TO margin.
Wisconsin ran 95 plays and scored just 10 points vs Penn St thanks to several mis- cues in the red zone.
Iowa blew out Indiana 34-6. While the right team won and covered, it should be noted the Hawkeyes benefitted from not one, but TWO “Pick 6’s” in the first half.
Georgia’s defense sacked Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei seven times in their 10-3 upset win over the No. 2 Tigers. The Bulldogs’
“Pick 6” of DJ in the first half was the only TD of the game.
Bad Beats
Our thoughts and prayers go out to those of you who bet the UNDER in the Eastern Washington/UNLV game. The total was 66 and at halftime, UNLV only led 6-3. At the end of regulation with the score tied at 20, Eastern Washington set up for a chip-shot field goal in the middle of the field on the final play. However, for the 3rd time that night, the EW kicker missed and the game went to OT. After both teams scored TD’s in the first OT, the second OT also saw both teams score TD’s.
EW made their 2-point conversion and while UNLV missed their conversion, the final TD put the game OVER the total in Eastern Washington’s 35-33 win.
Rice (+19.5) backers suffered a very bad beat last Saturday. The Owls actually led the game outright 17-7 in the third quarter. However, Arkansas scored the final 31 points of the game capped off by a TD with under a minute left. Yikes!
Kent St (+29.5) backers suffered a tough loss. The Golden Flashes only trailed 10-3 at halftime. Texas A&M did dominate the second half and led 41-10 late. However, Kent St’s kicker would miss not one but two chip-shot FG’s in the final 5 minutes that would have given Kent St the back-door.
Kentucky (-31) scored a TD with a minute to get the cover and also put the game OVER the total of 54 in a 45-10 win over ULM.
Injuries/Personnel News
BYU WR Gunner Romney (knee) is doubtful vs Utah.
Clemson S Lannden Zanders (shoulder) is out for the season.
East Carolina OL Bailey Malovic (lower body) is out for the season.
Georgia OG Tate Ratledge (foot) is out for the season.
Georgia Tech QB Jeff Sims (arm) is ? vs Kennesaw St.
Illinois QB Brandon Peters (shoulder) is ? vs Virginia.
Iowa St TE Charlie Kolar (ankle) is ? vs Iowa.
Memphis QB Grant Gunnell (lower body) is out indefinitely. Seth Henigan will get the start vs Arkansas St.
Michigan WR Ronnie Bell (knee) is out for the season.
Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim (leg) is out for the season.
Oklahoma WR Theo Wease (leg) is out indefinitely.
Oklahoma St QB Spencer Sanders (quarantine) is ? vs Tulsa.
Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (leg) is ? vs Ohio St.
South Carolina QB Luke Doty (foot) has been upgraded to probable vs ECU.
South Carolina RB Kevin Harris (illness) is probable vs ECU.
Stanford QB Tanner McKee has been named the starter vs USC.
Temple QB D’Wan Mathis (foot) has been downgraded to doubtful vs Akron. Justin Lynch is expected to start.
Washington St Jarrett Guarantano (knee) has been downgraded to doubtful vs Port- land St. Jayden De Laura has been named the starter.
Connecticut head coach Randy Edsall isn’t waiting until the end of the season to retire. He’ll step down immediately. Defensive coordinator Lou Spanos will serve as interim head coach for the remainder of the season.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said three or four of his players are sidelined with COVID-19. Smart declined to identify the players during a teleconference with re- porters on Monday. It is unknown whether they will be available to play against the Blazers on Saturday. “I’ll be honest with you, I’m as concerned as I’ve ever been, because we have three or four guys out with COVID and we have a couple staff members that have been out with COVID here recently.”
Recapping Week 1 Best Bets
It was a very disappointing 2-3 week for our Best Bets. On Thursday, we lost the
UNDER in the Ohio St/Minnesota game thanks to SIX big play TD’s in the second
half that saw a 14-10 halftime score go way over. The Rutgers/Temple game on
Thursday was pushed back to Saturday. Most of you probably had cancelled bets
and had to re-bet the game. The Scarlet Knights would dominate winning 61-14. On
Saturday, Texas St got a TD in the final 1:19 for the back-door against our Baylor
recommendation. The Alabama/Miami UNDER did cash while Stanford never had
a shot vs Kansas St in a 24-7 loss.
2 NFL Week 2 Thurs, Sept 9th Line BP
All Times Eastern451 DALLAS 51.5 50
8:20 p.m. NBC
452 TAMPA BAY -8 -10
CFB and NFL Schedules with Vegas and Brad Powers Lines Week 2 September 9-13
Saturday, September 11th Line BP
All Times Eastern371 TEXAS -7 -7
7:00 p.m. ESPN
372 ARKANSAS 56.5 55 373 MISSOURI 56 57
7:30 p.m. SEC Network
374 KENTUCKY -5 -3 375 GEORGIA ST 66 62
7:30 p.m. ESPN3
376 NORTH CAROLINA -26 -28 377 WASHINGTON 48.5 47
8:00 p.m. ABC
378 MICHIGAN -7 -7 379 VANDERBILT 50.5 49
10:00 p.m. CBSSN
380 COLORADO ST -7 -7 Saturday, September 11th Line BP
All Times Eastern303 UTEP 56 57
7:00 p.m. FS1
304 BOISE ST -26 -25 305 ILLINOIS 55 57
11:00 a.m. ACC Net
306 VIRGINIA -10 -9 307 WKU 52 61
11:30 a.m. CBSSN
308 ARMY -7 -7 309 OREGON 63.5 68
12:00 p.m. FOX
310 OHIO ST -14.5 -14 313 FLORIDA -28.5 -24
1:00 p.m. ABC
314 SOUTH FLORIDA 58 50 315 PITTSBURGH -3 -4
12:00 p.m. ESPN
316 TENNESSEE 57 58 317 SOUTH CAROLINA -1.5 -6
12:00 p.m. ESPN2
318 EAST CAROLINA 56.5 52 319 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 48 49
3:30 p.m.
320 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -7 -7 321 MIAMI, OH 53.5 54
12:00 p.m. ESPNU
322 MINNESOTA -20 -20 323 TULSA 51.5 47
12:00 p.m. Big Ten Net
324 OKLAHOMA ST -12.5 -13 325 WYOMING -7 -6
1:30 p.m. ESPN+
326 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 44.5 46 327 RUTGERS -2 -3
2:00 p.m. ACC Net
328 SYRACUSE 52 53 329 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 54 54
2:00 p.m.
330 VIRGINIA TECH -20 -18 331 NEW MEXICO ST 56 50
7:00 p.m.
332 NEW MEXICO -19 -16 335 PURDUE -34 -35
4:00 p.m. CBSSN
336 CONNECTICUT 58.5 61
381 SAN DIEGO ST 46.5 47
10:00 p.m. Pac-12
382 ARIZONA -2 -1 383 UTAH -7 -7
10:15 p.m. ESPN
384 BYU 49 49 385 UNLV 53.5 55
10:30 p.m. ESPN2
386 ARIZONA ST -33.5 -35 389 HAWAII 64 64
11:00 p.m. FS1
390 OREGON ST -11 -12 311 BOSTON COLLEGE -37 -34
3:30 p.m.
312 MASSACHUSETTS 59 54
333 TOLEDO 55.5 60
2:30 p.m. Peacock
334 NOTRE DAME -17 -16
Friday, September 10th Line BP
All Times Eastern301 KANSAS 52 52
7:30 p.m. ESPN2
302 COASTAL CAROLINA -25 -24
337 AIR FORCE -5.5 -3
3:30 p.m. CBS
338 NAVY 40.5 37 339 BALL ST 57.5 55
3:30 p.m. FS1
340 PENN ST -22.5 -21 343 UAB 46 44
3:30 p.m. ESPN2
344 GEORGIA -24.5 -24 341 TEMPLE -7 -7
12:30 p.m. ESPN+
342 AKRON 52.5 53 345 CALIFORNIA 48 49
3:30 p.m. ESPNU
346 TCU -11.5 -9 347 BUFFALO 54.5 56
3:30 p.m. BTN
348 NEBRASKA -13.5 -14 351 TEXAS A&M -17 -16
3:30 p.m. Denver, CO FOX
352 COLORADO 50 52 349 IOWA 46 44
4:30 p.m. ABC
350 IOWA ST -4.5 -4 353 SOUTH ALABAMA -14 -14
4:00 p.m. ESPN+
354 BOWLING GREEN 50 48 355 HOUSTON -7.5 -7
6:30 p.m. CBSSN
356 RICE 52.5 55
387 STANFORD 52.5 54
10:30 p.m. FOX
388 USC -17 -16
357 APPALACHIAN ST 54.5 55
7:00 p.m. ESPNU
358 MIAMI, FL -9 -13 359 TEXAS ST 55.5 53
7:00 p.m. ESPN+
360 FIU -1 -3 361 NC STATE -2.5 55
7:00 p.m. ESPN2
362 MISSISSIPPI ST 55.5 -1 363 EASTERN MICHIGAN 52 52
7:00 p.m. FS1
364 WISCONSIN -26 -28 365 NORTH TEXAS 73 74
7:00 p.m. ESPN+
366 SMU -22.5 -20 367 LIBERTY -4 -8
6:30 p.m. ESPN+
368 TROY 61 60 369 MEMPHIS -5 -9
7:00 p.m. ESPN+
370 ARKANSAS ST 65.5 61
NFL Wk 1 Sunday, Sept 12th Line BP
All Times Eastern453 PITTSBURGH 48.5 48
1:00 p.m. CBS
454 BUFFALO -6.5 -6 455 N.Y. JETS 44.5 46
1:00 p.m. CBS
456 CAROLINA -5 -6 457 JACKSONVILLE -3 45
1:00 p.m. CBS
458 HOUSTON 45.5 -1 459 ARIZONA 52 55
1:00 p.m. CBS
460 TENNESSEE -3 -3 461 L.A. CHARGERS 44.5 45
1:00 p.m. CBS
462 WASHINGTON PK -3 463 PHILADELPHIA 48 48
1:00 p.m. FOX
464 ATLANTA -3 -4 465 SEATTLE -2.5 -2
1:00 p.m. FOX
466 INDIANAPOLIS 50 50 467 MINNESOTA -3 -5
1:00 p.m. FOX
468 CINCINNATI 47.5 47 469 SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 -10
1:00 p.m. FOX
470 DETROIT 45 44 471 CLEVELAND 54.5 54
4:25 p.m. CBS
472 KANSAS CITY -6.5 -6 473 MIAMI 43.5 42
4:25 p.m. CBS
474 NEW ENGLAND -3 -6 475 DENVER -3 -3
4:25 p.m. FOX
476 N.Y. GIANTS 42 43 479 CHICAGO 46.5 46
8:20 p.m. NBC
480 L.A. RAMS -7.5 -8
481 BALTIMORE -4.5 -3
8:15 p.m. ESPN
482 LAS VEGAS 50.5 51
NFL Wk 1 Monday, Sept 13th Line BP
All Times Eastern483 GREEN BAY -4 -3
4:25 p.m. Jacksonville, FL FOX
484 NEW ORLEANS 50 49
3 Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Friday, September 10th
COASTAL CAROLINA 38 Kansas 14. What a difference a year makes as last year on these pages we took Coastal Carolina “+5.5” at Kansas as they pulled a 38-23 upset win. Now after an historic season, the Chanticleers are laying 25 at home to a “Power 5” opponent! Notice we put the “Power 5” in quotations when talking about Kansas. Coastal is off a 52-14 win and cover over The Citadel while VIP’s easily cashed with our top Friday play with South Dakota nearly pulling the outright upset over Kansas as a double-digit dog. The Jayhawks were -0.8 in yards per play but that didn’t stop the stu- dents from storming the field. We don’t see much value here.
BOISE ST 41 Utep 16. Believe it or not, UTEP is now 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games. That’s coming on the heels of a 2-34 SU run. However, notice who the 5 wins came over...3 FCS foes and two of the worst FBS teams in the country (ULM and New Mexico St). Still, this is an improved UTEP team. On the other side, Boise was extremely fortunate to get a cover vs UCF as a 6-point underdog. That’s saying something considering they led 21-0. However, the Broncos were out-gained 573-312 and out-rushed 258- 49 but benefitted from a 100-yard “Pick 6” early. The Broncos have been over-priced on the “Smurf Turf” the last 10 years with a 23-36 ATS mark and UTEP’s offense (avg 34 ppg) is capable of the back-door.
Saturday, September 11th
VIRGINIA 33 Illinois 24. After an upset win over Nebraska in Week Zero, the Fighting Illini were upset last week by UTSA 37-30. Backup QB Sitkow- ski did throw 3 TD passes but struggled with accuracy (22 of 42). There is a chance starting QB Brandon Peters comes back for this one. On the other side, Virginia exceeded expectations with a 43-0 win over William & Mary (-30.5). We did bet Illinois +13 on the Circa openers on Sunday morning (see page 5 and page 7 for all of our opening bets).We still have a lean on Illinois at “+10” even with the line move and like it if Peters returns. He’s 2-3-point upgrade in our ratings.
ARMY 34 Western Kentucky 27. This is one of the games we can’t wait for this weekend. Yes, that’s right a WKU vs Army game. Why...you ask?
Well, for starters we can’t wait to see the new WKU offense vs Army’s stingy defense. Last week new WKU QB Bailey Zappe threw 7 TD passes in a 59- 21 win over FCS UT-Martin. Meanwhile, Army dominated Georgia St with a 43-10 win as a 2.5-point underdog. We like betting OVERs when you have two very different styles of offenses. Why...it’s because the defense can’t get a good look in practice. WKU doesn’t have the personnel to replicate Army’s option while Army doesn’t have someone that can duplicate Zappe’s throw- ing. This line seems to be coming down though
OHIO ST 41 Oregon 27. Last week we lost on these pages backing the UNDER in the Ohio State/Minnesota game. We were pretty confident when it was only 14-10 at halftime. However, Ohio St’s “big play” offense took off in the second half as the Buckeyes had an eye-popping 10.3-5.2 yards per play advantage against a solid Minnesota team. Meanwhile, Oregon struggled big time vs Fresno St as a 18.5-point favorite (stats were even, no fluke!). We just don’t trust a Pac-12 team in a big-game and it’s not like the conference performed that great last week (see ATS trends on page 7). Especially if the Ducks don’t have All-American DE Kayvon Thibodeaux. We do prefer the OVER here and bet the opener on Sunday morning.
Boston College 44 MASSACHUSETTS 10. Obviously, Massachusetts is one of the worst teams in the country. However, our ratings say they are the
“value” play here. Last week Pitt was laying 37.5 at home to UMass. Now what we feel is a slightly weaker BC team is laying 37.5 on the road. Hold your nose and take the stinky dog. However, if you can’t stomach the Min- utemen, we also lean with the UNDER.
Florida 37 SOUTH FLORIDA 13. It was a very tough start the season for USF in their 45-0 loss at NC State as 20-point underdogs. Meanwhile, Flor- ida beat Florida Atlantic 35-14 in a non-cover (-23.5). The Gators did have a 400-92 rushing yard edge. New QB Emory Jones struggled a bit as backup Anthony Richardson came off the bench and ran for 160 yards. Is a contro- versy brewing? We lean USF here but really like the UNDER. Florida’s de- fense is improved and they don’t have the pass attack as they did a year ago.
Pittsburgh 31 TENNESSEE 27. We bet this game on both side and total on Sunday morning. First, we took Pitt in this one (-1.5) as we were not im- pressed with the Volunteers in their 38-6 win over Bowling Green last Thurs- day. Tennessee only led 14-6 at halftime. Meanwhile, Pitt easily hammered a similarly ranked (in our power ratings) UMass team 51-7. However, that line has crossed through a key “3” number. What we really like in this match-up is the OVER. Both teams ran a ton of tempo last week with Tennessee running 91 plays and Pitt running 87. More plays = more opportunities for scoring!
2H South Carolina 29 EAST CAROLINA 23. We are not afraid of betting volume especially vs openers. This is yet another game where we took the side and total on Sunday. First, we faded a big line move Sunday morning.
South Carolina opened a 3-point underdog but a betting group hammered ECU to a 5-point favorite. That’s where we came in and took the Gamecocks.
First, it looks like they will get back QB Luke Doty and RB Kevin Harris who both missed the opener. Second, we were impressed with their 46-0 win (-31) over Eastern Illinois in head coach Shane Beamer’s debut. There wasn’t anything fluky as an underrated SC defense held EIU to 109 total yards. On the other side, ECU was very underwhelming in a 33-19 loss to Appalachian St. The betting market bet them down to a 9-point underdog (opened +13.5) and it should be noted ECU scored the game’s final 10 points. The Pirates will be fired up for hosting an SEC team but that is built into this number and then some. We like the Gamecocks and UNDER.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 28 Georgia Southern 21. Another game and an- other bet for us on Sunday as we laid 4 with FAU who comes in off a cover at Florida. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern nearly lost outright as a 27.5-point favorite vs FCS Gardner Webb as they won 30-25. Starting QB Justin Tomlin will remain out for this game. We are a little bit concerned with a FAU de- fense that allowed 400 rush yards last week taking on the Georgia Southern option. Now at the current line of 7, we’re passing.
MINNESOTA 37 Miami, Oh 17. The Gophers played Ohio State really tough last Thursday in a 45-31 loss (we lost the UNDER on these pages).
However, we downgraded their team’s power rating. Why? Well, they sadly lost one of the most valuable non-QB’s in CFB in RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season due to a leg injury. Ibrahim had 30 carries for 163 yards vs the Buckeyes (in 3Q’s) and is one of the highest usage RB’s in the country. He will be sorely missed. Meanwhile, Miami was crushed by rival Cincinnati 49-14. We’re not involved here.
2H UNDER 51.5 OKLAHOMA ST 30 Tulsa 17. Both teams really strug- gled in their openers. First, our top VIP play on Thursday night was a play against Tulsa. We took UC Davis +25 (closed +22) and they pulled the out- right upset 19-17. It should be noted Tulsa had the yardage edge but were -3 in TO’s. Meanwhile, Oklahoma St nearly lost outright to FCS Missouri St as a 33.5-point favorite. QB Spencer Sanders was a late-scratch and it doesn’t look like he will play here either. These two faced off last year in a 16-7 Okla- homa St win and we expect another low scoring game here.
Wyoming 26 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 20. Wyoming was yet another FBS team that struggled vs an FCS opponent last week. The Cowboys needed a 21-yard pass with :47 left to escape with a win. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois pulled off one of the biggest shockers of last weekend as they beat Georgia Tech 22-21 as a 19-point underdog. Head coach Thomas Hammock went for 2 after a score with just :38 left and got it. It had to feel good for the once- proud program considering they went winless in 2020. The early money has come in on Wyoming here but we lean with the home dog now.
Rutgers 28 SYRACUSE 25. We bet Rutgers on the opener here trying to get in front of a line move. We expect the public to like the Scarlet Knights here after their 61-14 destruction of Temple last week. Note Rutgers was +5 in TO’s and only had a 365-261 yard edge (certainly not indicative of a 47-point win). Meanwhile, the big money came in against Syracuse last Saturday.
However, the Orange pulled the upset over Ohio 29-9 as 2-point underdogs.
The Orange only had a 383-346 yard edge. We still lean with Rutgers here but this line seems a little fishy that it hasn’t gone to 3 yet.
VIRGINIA TECH 36 Middle Tennessee 18. We almost faded Virginia Tech last week. Before the game even kicked off, we felt relieved we didn’t as the TV broadcast opened up with a jam-packed Lane Stadium rocking out to “Enter Sandman” by Metallica. It was one of the best atmospheres we’ve seen in recent memory and VT pulled the outright upset 17-10. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee got a 50-15 win over Monmouth (good FCS team) as a 8.5-point favorite. Note the Blue Raiders were +4 in TO’s and were only +63 yards. We want to play against VT after the big win but was hoping for a +21 or more.
NEW MEXICO 33 New Mexico St 17. We love New Mexico this year but it seems like the rest of the market does as well. Last week the Lobos were bet up to a 25.5-point favorite vs Houston Baptist (we actually had a -14.5 New Mexico ticket) but NM only won 27-17. They did limit HB to just 187 total yards and (-9) yards rushing. Meanwhile, the Aggies are off to a 0-2 start but looked improved last week as they led San Diego St 10-0 early before allow- ing the game’s final 28 points. They still easily covered as 31.5-point under- dogs and we think this line is a little high as well. We lean dog and UNDER.
3H OVER 55.5 NOTRE DAME 38 Toledo 22. This is a bad spot for the Irish on a short week after a dramatic OT win at Florida St on Sunday night. The ND defense was worn out in the second half and allowed FSU to run for 264 yards. However, the offense led by new QB Jack Coan looks improved especially in the pass game as Coan threw for 366 yards and 4 TD’s. Meanwhile, Toledo had an easy 49-10 win over FCS Norfolk St. We think the Rockets are the best team in the MAC this season. We like the OVER quite a bit.
THE POWERS’ PACK
3H Toledo/NOTRE DAME OVER 55.5 2H Liberty (-4) over TROY 2H Tulsa/OKLAHOMA ST UNDER 51.5 2H South Carolina (-1.5) over EAST CAROLINA
4H = BEST 3H = BETTER
2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR
4 Purdue 48 CONNECTICUT 13. How can you bet on this UConn pro- gram? After not playing at all in 2020, the Huskies lost 45-0 at Fresno St in the opener. Then last week were upset by FCS Holy Cross 38-28. Head coach Randy Edsall on Sunday said he would retire at the end of the season but now he is decided to retire immediately. DC Lou Spanos will be the interim but he had a viral video from Saturday’s game where the players weren’t paying attention to him at all. UConn is now just 37-73-1 ATS the last 10-plus years! Meanwhile, Purdue comes in off a solid win over Ore- gon St 30-21. It was a performance head coach Jeff Brohm needed. Purdue does have Notre Dame on deck but they can name the score here.
Air Force 21 NAVY 16. One of our favorite trends to bet on each year is bet- ting service academy games UNDER. The UNDER is on a 38-9-1 run and we already recommended it to VIP clients on Sunday when it was 44.5. Now that it’s down to 40.5, it is only a lean. We also lean with Navy here despite their pathetic performance vs Marshall. Air Force wasn’t overwhelming last week in a non-cover vs Lafayette. However, they did have a 370-43 rushing yard edge.
PENN ST 38 Ball St 17. This is a huge sandwich game for Penn St. The Nit- tany Lions come in off an upset win over Wisconsin 16-10. In that game, they were out-gained 359-297 but were +3 in TO’s. Next week they host Auburn in a “White Out”. We would be all set in recommending Ball St here but the Cardinals weren’t impressive in a 31-21 non-covering win vs FCS Western Illinois. In fact, Ball St was out-gained 437-404. Lean Cardinals.
Temple 30 AKRON 23. We faded Temple on these pages last week and they lost 61-14 to Rutgers! However, we turned around and bet them on the Sunday morning openers in this game. Why? Well, the Owls were -5 in TO’s and the box score wasn’t nearly as bad as the final. The same can’t be said for Akron as they were even with Auburn in the TO department but were out-gained 613- 188 in a 60-10 loss. The only problem here is Temple QB D’Wan Mathis is out for this one and Justin Lynch is expected to start. We don’t think it’s a huge downgrade though as the two combined to go 8 of 27 last week and at least Lynch ran for 39 yards. The number was Temple -3 on Sunday, now it’s -7. We pass at the current number.
GEORGIA 34 Uab 10. This could be a huge letdown spot for Georgia after their big win over Clemson last weekend. The Georgia defense was an impres- sive as any unit in CFB as they sacked Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei 7 times and the Bulldogs had a 121-2 rushing yard edge. Still, the UGA offense left a lot to be desired and there are COVID concerns (see page 1). Meanwhile, UAB was mighty impressive in a 31-0 shutout win over a good FCS team in Jacksonville St. We bet UAB +29 on the opener The only thing preventing us from a UAB play is their 0-4 ATS record vs Power 5 teams the last 4 years. We also liked the UNDER but that’s moved a TD from the opener as well.
TCU 29 California 20. This is one where our numbers actually surprised us.
We thought TCU would be anywhere from a 7-9 point favorite here. There is still some uncertainty about the Horned Frogs who only played a FCS oppo- nent last week. TCU won 45-3 as a 42-point favorite so they met expectations.
Meanwhile, Cal disappointed in a 22-17 loss at home to Nevada. Remember our numbers really liked Cal in that game. However, our pure power rating on this game had TCU close to a 14-point favorite and we’ve seen all the ear- ly money come in on them. We will stick with our gut and take the defen- sive-minded Bears as a double-digit underdog.
NEBRASKA 35 Buffalo 21. Nebraska rebounded after the upset loss to Il- linois by hammering FCS Fordham 52-7. Obviously, that game really didn’t move the needle for us. Meanwhile, Buffalo did surprise us with a 69-7 beat down of Wagner as they covered by nearly 3 TD’s. Our numbers say Nebraska is the slight lean here but Buffalo is still an unknown with an entirely new coaching staff from the spring and half 2-deep had transferred out. Is this the game where that shows?
IOWA ST 24 Iowa 20. Obviously, this is the biggest game in the history of the Cyhawk rivalry. Both teams are ranked in the Top 10 and ESPN’s College Gameday will be there! Last week we thought LSU vs UCLA was the “Pros vs Joes” game of the week. That saw the Pros win with the Bruins. We feel this one is the “Pros vs Joes” game this week. It may surprise you but we feel Iowa is the trendy public underdog. Why? The Hawkeyes smashed a ranked Indiana team last week 34-6. While Iowa deserved to win and cover, it should be noted that they benefitted from not one, but TWO “Pick 6’s”. Now they take on an Iowa St team that everyone is throwing in the trash after they nearly lost as a huge favorite to Northern Iowa last week. We weren’t that shocked as Northern Iowa +35 ended up being our biggest bet of the week (out of 107 bets!). Re- member, that line wasn’t available until Friday afternoon, otherwise it would have been on these pages last week. We get that Iowa has won 5 straight in the series and Iowa St hasn’t won this game by margin in 15 years. But this line just seems fishy especially with the early money on the Cyclones. As for us, we’re sitting on the sidelines but if you absolutely had to get involved, we’d lean UNDER.
† Texas A&M 34 Colorado 18. Played at Mile High Stadium in Denver, CO.
Neither team overwhelmed us in the opener. Texas A&M only led Kent St 10-3 at halftime before they got it going in the second half of a 41-10 win. See page one though for “Bad Beats” as Kent St should’ve covered. New QB Haynes King did throw 3 INT’s. Meanwhile, Colorado failed to cover in a 35-7 win over FCS Northern Colorado. We think the current line is fair but if we got
“+17.5” we’d lean with Colorado.
South Alabama 31 BOWLING GREEN 17. South Alabama took a lot of money in the market place last week and the Jags won 31-7 over Southern Miss as 2-point favorites. However, note USA was +3 in TO’s and only managed 31
yards rushing. Meanwhile, we feel Bowling Green is a bottom 5 team national- ly and it’s been a miserable last 5 years. However, the Falcons did show some signs of life last week in Knoxville as they only trailed Tennessee 14-6 at half- time. Still, the “Bee-Gees” lost 38-6 (they did cover) and they got out-rushed 331-32. We circled South Alabama as a team we’d possibly bet this week but this number came higher than we thought. We’re passing.
Houston 31 RICE 24. Are you guys finally done betting on Dana Holgorsen?
We were stunned that Houston was bet to as high as -3 last week vs Texas Tech.
We thought their might be some COVID and/or injury issues at Texas Tech that some insiders had. It turns out all that money was wrong as the Cougars got outscored 31-0 in the second half. Nice halftime adjustments Dana! Houston was -3.8 in yards per play. Meanwhile, Rice should have gotten a cover vs Arkansas (see bad beats on page 1). The Owls led 17-7 but let the Razorbacks score the game’s final 31 points. The last TD coming with a minute left. There’s a big difference allowing the game’s final 31 points as a 3-TD underdog as op- posed to being the favorite. We wanted to lean with Rice but it looks like y’all are finally fading Holgorsen who should be done at the end of this year (just 7-14 straight up now!).
MIAMI, FL 34 Appalachian St 21. We think Appalachian St could be that trendy public underdog this week. The Mountaineers were impressive in their 33-19 win over East Carolina last Thursday. Meanwhile, Miami was crushed by Alabama 44-13 and everyone seems to be throwing them in the trash. How- ever, we didn’t think Miami looked all that bad. We just don’t think the market properly prices just how great Alabama is. The Tide are historically great and are simply at another level or two than even teams ranked in the Top 15. Mi- ami QB D’Eriq was sacked 4 times but he still completed 23 of 30 passes and looked close to 100%. Miami is taking a big step down in class here. While it’s vice versa for App St. Sometimes, we think the market gets too cute with these spreads (see Texas vs Louisiana last week). We bet Miami -6 on the opener and would still take them here at the current number.
FIU 28 Texas St 25. Obviously, Texas St was better than we anticipated last week as they beat us on these pages (lost 29-20 to Baylor as 2-TD underdogs).
They did get outgained 386-235 and were -2.1 yards per play. That usually in- dicates a blowout loss. Meanwhile, money came in on FIU last week and they beat FCS Long Island 48-10 (-35). RB D’Vonte Price ran for 165 yards and 3 TD’s. We lean with FIU here.
MISSISSIPPI ST 28 NC State 27. A lot of money is coming in on NC State here. Just like a lot of money came in against Mississippi St last week. That money proved correct as the Bulldogs found themselves down 34-14 to Louisi- ana Tech as 20.5-point favorites. Kudos for Mississippi St in rallying for a 35- 34 win and it should be noted they were -2 in TO’s. Meanwhile, NC State was dominant in a 45-0 shutout of USF. Considering how bad the ACC looked vs SEC competition last week (Miami vs Bama, Clemson vs Georgia, Louisville vs Ole Miss), we’re not sure we want to lay points on the road with the Wolf Pack here. We lean with Miss St.
WISCONSIN 40 Eastern Michigan 12. We think Wisconsin is due for a bounce-back performance here and we did lay -24 with them on the openers.
The Badgers should have won that game last week vs Penn St as they were done in by a -3 TO margin. It is concerning that QB Graham Mertz continues to struggle as his last 6 starts have resulted in a 2-7 TD-to-INT ratio. On the other side, Eastern Michigan failed to cover as a big favorite in a 35-15 win over FCS St. Francis. They are now in their preferred away underdog role here as the Eagles are on a 19-3 ATS run as road dogs. That trend makes this a lean on Wisconsin only.
SMU 47 North Texas 27. Both teams enter 1-0 straight up and ATS off blow- out wins over FCS opponents last week. North Texas beat Northwestern St 44- 14 (-20) as RB DeAndre Torrey ran for 244 yards and 3 TD’s. Meanwhile SMU beat Abilene Christian 56-0 (-33) as QB Tanner Mordecai threw 7 TD passes in his debut! We do like the Ponies this year (took them OVER their season win total) but we don’t trust them laying more than 3 TD’s here vs the NT offense.
2H Liberty 34 TROY 26. A really intriguing Group of 5 game here and we’re going to learn a lot about both teams. Both are coming off blowout wins and covers vs FCS opponents last week. Liberty beat Campbell 48-7 (-35) while Troy beat Southern 55-3 (-25). Obviously, Troy exceeded expectations more.
However, you don’t make money fading Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze who is 65-35-1 ATS in all games in his coaching career and the Flames have cov- ered 9 straight games dating back to last year. Make it 10.
MEMPHIS 35 Arkansas St 26. Our first best bet in 2020 was on this game as we took Arkansas St (+19) and they covered. This year we bet Memphis on the openers at -4 and still like the Tigers. Like the previous two games, both teams come in off blowout wins and covers vs FCS opponents. Memphis (-22.5) beat Nicholls St 42-17 as the Tigers had a 587-299 yard edge. Seth Henigan got the start at QB as Grant Gunnell will remain out. Meanwhile, Arkansas St (-13.5) beat Central Arkansas 40-21 in Butch Jones debut. Both James Blackman and Layne Hatcher split QB reps and it looks like that will be the case here.
Texas 31 ARKANSAS 24. Two former SWC rivals meet up here. Both teams
won and covered in their openers by similar scores but Texas was far more
impressive and beat a better opponent. Texas out-rushed Louisiana 170-76 and
QB’s Hudson Card/Casey Thompson combined for 18 of 26 for 265 yards and
3 TD’s. The Horns played clean football for the most part in head coach Steve
Sarkisian’s debut. Meanwhile, Arkansas trailed Rice 17-7 in the 3Q as near
3-TD favorites. Amazingly, the Hogs got the cover (see page 1) as they scored
the game’s final 31 points. This is the biggest home game for Arkansas in sev-
eral years and while they will be fired up, we like what we saw from Texas.
5 KENTUCKY 30 Missouri 27. We expect to see a much different game than last year, a 20-10 Missouri win where Kentucky’s offense was held to 145 yards. The Wildcats have a new offense this season under new OC Liam Coen (from the L.A. Rams). They also have a new QB in Penn St transfer Will Le- vis. Last week, they had some success with 554 yards and 45 points in a win over ULM. Meanwhile, Missouri was out-gained by Central Michigan despite a 10-point win. A sharp betting group hit the OVER on this game in the last 24 hours but we still lean that way along with Missouri.
NORTH CAROLINA 45 Georgia St 17. Both teams had lackluster openers.
Georgia St lost 43-10 at home to Army as a 2.5-point favorite! The offense despite 11 returning starters only managed 177 total yards. Meanwhile, NC was never in sync offensively in a 17-10 upset loss at Virginia Tech. QB Sam Howell was sacked 6 times and threw 3 INT’s. It is very likely his Heisman campaign ended in Week 1, which is shocking to say the least. The Tar Heel offense will get back in gear here as the Panthers defense is a big downgrade.
We lean with the favorite and the UNDER.
MICHIGAN 27 Washington 20. We fully expect to see a better Washington team this week after their shocking loss to Montana last week as 22.5-point favorites. The problem is we’re not sure if it will matter because there a lot of fluke surrounding that loss. Sure, the Huskies were -5 in TO’s but they still got beat at the line of scrimmage as Montana had a 127-65 rushing edge. On top of it, we’re not big fans of anything they do offensively. The QB is 6-foot at best and has a questionable arm, the OC’s schemes are very out-dated and their are no play-makers on the outside (best weapon is TE Cade Otton). Meanwhile, Michigan does have play-makers including Blake Corum and AJ Henning. The problem for the Wolverines is they possibly lost their best guy in WR Ronnie Bell for the season. We lean UNDER.
COLORADO ST 28 Vanderbilt 21. There’s not many teams that feel worse coming into Week 2 than these two teams. Colorado St lost by 19 to FCS South Dakota St while Vanderbilt lost by 20 to FCS East Tennessee St. The differ- ence...South Dakota St is arguably the best FCS team in the country this year (at least Top 5) while ETSU is an average at best FCS team. Both teams were better than what the finals indicated as Colorado St was -2 in TO’s while Vandy was -3. Early money has been all over Colorado St here and we’re a part of it (we bet Colorado St -1). However, we can’t recommend laying 7 now.
ARIZONA 24 San Diego St 23. We came away impressed with Arizona in the opener as the Wildcats had a 426-368 yard edge as near 2-TD underdogs.
The same can’t be said for a San Diego St that trailed lowly New Mexico St 10-0 before scoring the game’s final 28 points in a non-covering win (were -31.5). The Aztecs were actually out-gained in total yards as their pass offense remains questionable. They did have a 248-48 rushing yard edge. The atmo- sphere should be rocking in Arizona new head coach Jedd Fisch’s debut as the Wildcats will try to end a school-record 13-game losing streak. As of now, we’re not involved.
Utah 28 BYU 21. Amazingly Utah has won 9 straight in the Holy War (6-3 ATS) but 7 of those wins have come by 8 points or less so it is tough laying margin here. Despite a non-cover against Weber St in the opener, we were impressed with what we saw out of the Utes. Meanwhile, the same can’t be said for BYU who despite a win over Arizona, the Cougars were outgained 426-368. We look for the more experienced and more talented Utes to make it 10 in a row but we don’t want to lay more than a TD.
ARIZONA ST 45 Unlv 10. Last week one of our biggest bets came against UNLV as a local shop in town posted a very bad line on the game. We bet East- ern Washington +8.5, +7.5, +7 and +4.5 and EW actually closed as a favorite in the game. Even though EW won in 2OT 35-33, the game should have ended in regulation as EW missed 3 FG’s and had 3 TO’s. They were legitimately the better team. However, when UNLV made the QB switch to Doug Brumfield, the Rebels offense took off and he should get a majority of the snaps moving forward (provided he is healthy). On the other side, we weren’t overwhelmed with Arizona St’s 41-14 win over Southern Utah as 44.5-point favorites. Head coach Herm Edwards is not the guy to lay a big number with but our numbers are calling for it here.
USC 34 Stanford 18. In the summer, this line had USC favored -10 and at that point we thought there was value on the Trojans (see our CFB preview). After one week of play, we are happy with that bet. USC looked good in a 30-7 win over San Jose St while Stanford was pathetic in a 24-7 loss to Kansas St that cost us on these pages. With that being said, 17 points is one of the biggest underdog roles for Stanford in more than a decade. We don’t trust Clay Helton in a big favorite role so if there is a “+17.5” out there, we would lean with the Cardinal.
OREGON ST 38 Hawaii 26. We haven’t been impressed with Hawaii so far
this season as the Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 ATS and have failed to cover both
games by double-digits. Meanwhile, the Beavers fought hard last week at Pur-
due but a late TD gave the Boilers the win and cover 30-21. The Beavers need
a feel good win. They’ve been a double-digit favorite only twice under head
coach Smith and have easily covered in both. We lean with them here but we
were hoping to lay 10.
2021 College Football Power Ratings (Vegas Ratings Not AP Poll Style)
Rk Team 8/25 9/8 Diff 1. Alabama 99.62 101.62 +2.00 2. Clemson 96.40 94.40 -2.00 3. Georgia 91.40 93.40 +2.00 4. Ohio State 93.21 93.21 0.00 5. Oklahoma 95.15 93.15 -2.00 6. Texas A&M 88.41 88.41 0.00 7. Iowa State 88.83 86.83 -2.00 8. Wisconsin 86.80 85.80 -1.00 9. Penn State 85.04 85.54 +0.50 10. Florida 84.70 84.20 -0.50 11. Iowa 81.95 83.95 +2.00 12. Ole Miss 82.15 83.65 +1.50 13. Oregon 84.70 83.20 -1.50 13. USC 82.70 83.20 +0.50 15. Cincinnati 82.09 83.09 +1.00 16. Texas 82.08 83.08 +1.00 17. LSU 84.80 82.80 -2.00 18. Notre Dame 84.02 82.52 -1.50 19. Utah 82.78 82.28 -0.50 20. Auburn 80.99 81.99 +1.00 21. North Carolina 83.90 81.90 -2.00 22. Miami (FL) 83.80 81.80 -2.00 23. UCLA 77.59 81.59 +4.00 24. TCU 81.22 81.22 0.00 25. Arizona State 81.58 81.08 -0.50 26. Michigan 79.43 80.93 +1.50 27. Indiana 80.84 78.84 -2.00 28. UCF 76.90 77.90 +1.00 29. NC State 75.63 77.63 +2.00 30. Virginia Tech 75.60 77.60 +2.00 31. Washington 81.53 77.53 -4.00 32. Oklahoma State 80.48 77.48 -3.00 33. Minnesota 77.48 76.48 -1.00 34. Pittsburgh 74.23 74.23 0.00 35. Coastal Carolina 74.13 74.13 0.00 36. Arkansas 74.89 73.89 -1.00 37. Appalachian St 72.79 73.79 +1.00 38. West Virginia 74.76 73.76 -1.00 39. Boston College 73.69 73.69 0.00 40. Mississippi State 76.14 73.64 -2.50 41. Nebraska 75.58 73.58 -2.00 42. BYU 74.04 73.54 -0.50 43. Michigan State 71.46 73.46 +2.00 44. Florida State 72.34 73.34 +1.00 45. UL-Lafayette 74.10 73.10 -1.00 46. Kansas State 69.99 72.99 +3.00 47. Wake Forest 73.47 72.97 -0.50 48. Liberty 72.93 72.93 0.00 49. Virginia 71.83 72.83 +1.00
Rk Team 8/25 9/8 Diff 50. Boise State 73.42 72.42 -1.00 50. Purdue 71.92 72.42 +0.50 52. Texas Tech 71.35 72.35 +1.00 53. Missouri 72.65 72.15 -0.50 54. SMU 70.30 71.80 +1.50 55. Baylor 73.15 71.65 -1.50 56. Nevada 69.62 71.62 +2.00 57. Kentucky 71.44 71.44 0.00 58. Maryland 69.85 71.35 +1.50 59. Northwestern 72.47 70.47 -2.00 60. Tulane 68.33 70.33 +2.00 61. California 72.21 70.21 -2.00 62. Louisville 71.68 70.18 -1.50 63. Stanford 73.09 70.09 -3.00 64. Rutgers 67.58 69.58 +2.00 65. Colorado 69.91 69.41 -0.50 66. UAB 67.08 69.08 +2.00 67. Toledo 68.94 68.94 0.00 68. Tennessee 69.40 68.90 -0.50 69. Memphis 69.35 68.85 -0.50 70. Washington State 71.68 68.68 -3.00 71. Fresno State 64.03 68.53 +4.50 72. San Jose State 66.25 67.75 +1.50 73. Oregon State 67.81 67.31 -0.50 73. Tulsa 70.31 67.31 -3.00 75. Houston 69.29 67.29 -2.00 76. Marshall 62.75 65.75 +3.00 77. Army 63.17 65.67 +2.50 78. Illinois 66.38 65.38 -1.00 79. Troy 63.20 65.20 +2.00 80. Georgia Tech 68.15 65.15 -3.00 81. South Carolina 64.04 65.04 +1.00 82. San Diego State 67.02 65.02 -2.00 83. Wyoming 65.78 64.78 -1.00 84. Ball State 65.72 64.72 -1.00 85. UTSA 62.46 64.46 +2.00 86. Syracuse 61.21 63.21 +2.00 87. Central Michigan 62.61 63.11 +0.50 88. Florida Atlantic 63.03 63.03 0.00 89. Air Force 62.79 62.29 -0.50 90. Buffalo 60.13 62.13 +2.00 91. Western Mich 63.28 61.78 -1.50 92. Arizona 60.89 61.39 +0.50 93. East Carolina 62.07 61.07 -1.00 94. Kent State 60.18 60.18 0.00 95. Georgia State 62.64 60.14 -2.50 96. WKU 56.02 60.02 +4.00 97. Eastern Michigan 60.12 59.62 -0.50 98. Colorado State 61.44 59.44 -2.00
Rk Team 8/25 9/8 Diff 99. Hawaii 61.75 59.25 -2.50 100. Duke 60.61 59.11 -1.50 101. Ohio 61.04 59.04 -2.00 102. Arkansas State 56.88 58.38 +1.50 103. Northern Illinois 55.04 58.04 +3.00 104. Louisiana Tech 55.49 57.99 +2.50 105. Miami (OH) 58.86 57.86 -1.00 106. Middle Tenn 55.67 57.67 +2.00 107. Georgia Southern 59.64 57.64 -2.00 108. Rice 55.82 57.32 +1.50 109. USF 58.86 56.86 -2.00 110. Utah State 53.48 56.48 +3.00 111. Navy 59.01 56.01 -3.00 112. Texas State 54.08 55.58 +1.50 113. Vanderbilt 58.93 54.93 -4.00 114. North Texas 53.16 54.16 +1.00 115. South Alabama 51.53 54.03 +2.50 116. New Mexico 54.91 53.91 -1.00 117. Charlotte 52.35 53.85 +1.50 118. Southern Miss 56.05 53.55 -2.50 119. Temple 54.73 52.73 -2.00 120. FIU 51.63 52.63 +1.00 121. Kansas 52.71 52.21 -0.50 122. UNLV 49.33 49.33 0.00 123. UTEP 46.52 48.02 +1.50 124. Old Dominion 43.81 44.31 +0.50 125. UL-Monroe 44.22 44.22 0.00 126. Akron 44.10 43.10 -1.00 127. Connecticut 44.21 39.21 -5.00 128. Bowling Green 38.08 38.58 +0.50 129. Massachusetts 38.23 38.23 0.00 130. New Mexico St 37.13 37.13 0.00
Biggest Losses From Start of Season Connecticut -5.0 Vanderbilt -4.0 Washington -4.0
Navy -3.0
Tulsa -3.0
Washington St -3.0 Oklahoma State -3.0 Stanford -3.0 Georgia Tech -3.0 Georgia State -2.5
Hawaii -2.5
Southern Miss -2.5 Mississippi St -2.5 Biggest Gains From
Start of Season Fresno State +4.5
WKU +4.0
UCLA +4.0
Utah State +3.0 No. Illinois +3.0 Kansas State +3.0 Marshall +3.0
Army +2.5
Louisiana Tech +2.5 South Alabama +2.5
Rk Team SEC Rating
1. Alabama 101.62
3. Georgia 93.40
6. Texas A&M 88.41 10. Florida 84.20 12. Ole Miss 83.65
17. LSU 82.80
20. Auburn 81.99
36. Arkansas 73.89 40. Mississippi State 73.64 53. Missouri 72.15 57. Kentucky 71.44 68. Tennessee 68.90 81. South Carolina 65.04 113. Vanderbilt 54.93
Big Ten
Rk Team Rating
4. Ohio State 93.21 8. Wisconsin 85.80 9. Penn State 85.54
11. Iowa 83.95
26. Michigan 80.93 27. Indiana 78.84 33. Minnesota 76.48 41. Nebraska 73.58 43. Michigan State 73.46
50. Purdue 72.42
58. Maryland 71.35 59. Northwestern 70.47 64. Rutgers 69.58 78. Illinois 65.38
2021 Preseason College Football Power Ratings by Conference
Big 12
Rk Team Rating
5. Oklahoma 93.15 7. Iowa State 86.83
16. Texas 83.08
24. TCU 81.22
32. Oklahoma State 77.48 38. West Virginia 73.76 46. Kansas State 72.99 52. Texas Tech 72.35 55. Baylor 71.65 121. Kansas 52.21 Rk Team ACC Rating 2. Clemson 94.40 21. North Carolina 81.90 22. Miami (FL) 81.80 29. NC State 77.63 30. Virginia Tech 77.60 34. Pittsburgh 74.23 39. Boston College 73.69 44. Florida State 73.34 47. Wake Forest 72.97 49. Virginia 72.83 62. Louisville 70.18 80. Georgia Tech 65.15 86. Syracuse 63.21
100. Duke 59.11
Pac-12
Rk Team Rating
13. Oregon 83.20
13. USC 83.20
19. Utah 82.28
23. UCLA 81.59
25. Arizona State 81.08 31. Washington 77.53 61. California 70.21 63. Stanford 70.09 65. Colorado 69.41 70. Washington St 68.68 73. Oregon State 67.31 92. Arizona 61.39
American
Rk Team Rating 15. Cincinnati 83.09
28. UCF 77.90
54. SMU 71.80
60. Tulane 70.33 69. Memphis 68.85
73. Tulsa 67.31
75. Houston 67.29 93. East Carolina 61.07
109. USF 56.86
111. Navy 56.01
119. Temple 52.73
Mountain West
Rk Team Rating
50. Boise State 72.42 56. Nevada 71.62 71. Fresno State 68.53 72. San Jose State 67.75 82. San Diego State 65.02 83. Wyoming 64.78 89. Air Force 62.29 98. Colorado State 59.44 99. Hawaii 59.25 110. Utah State 56.48 116. New Mexico 53.91
122. UNLV 49.33
Rk Team MAC Rating 67. Toledo 68.94 84. Ball State 64.72 87. Central Mich 63.11 90. Buffalo 62.13 91. Western Mich 61.78 94. Kent State 60.18 97. Eastern Mich 59.62
101. Ohio 59.04
103. Northern Illinois 58.04 105. Miami (OH) 57.86
126. Akron 43.10
128. Bowling Green 38.58
Rk Team CUSA Rating
66. UAB 69.08
76. Marshall 65.75
85. UTSA 64.46
88. Florida Atlantic 63.03
96. WKU 60.02
104. Louisiana Tech 57.99 106. Middle Tenn 57.67
108. Rice 57.32
114. North Texas 54.16 117. Charlotte 53.85 118. Southern Miss 53.55
120. FIU 52.63
123. UTEP 48.02
124. Old Dominion 44.31 Sun Belt
Rk Team Rating
35. Coastal Carolina 74.13 37. Appalachian St 73.79 45. UL-Lafayette 73.10
79. Troy 65.20
95. Georgia State 60.14
102. Arkansas State 58.38
107. Ga Southern 57.64
112. Texas State 55.58
115. South Alabama 54.03
125. UL-Monroe 44.22
6
Fri, September 10th Line Comp Diff 301 Kansas
302 Coastal Carolina -25.0 -23.9 +1.1 303 UTEP
304 Boise St -26.0 -27.7 -1.7 Sat, September 11th Line Comp Diff 305 Illinois
306 Virginia -10.0 -10.2 -0.2 307 Western Kentucky
308 Army -7.0 -8.2 -1.2 309 Oregon
310 Ohio St -14.5 -14.0 +0.5 311 Boston College
312 Massachusetts +37.0 +34.0 +3.0 313 Florida
314 South Florida +28.5 +25.3 +3.2 315 Pittsburgh
316 Tennessee +3.0 +2.7 +0.3 317 South Carolina
318 East Carolina +1.5 +1.7 -0.2 319 Georgia Southern
320 Florida Atlantic -7.0 -7.6 -0.6 321 Miami, Oh
322 Minnesota -20.0 -21.4 -1.4 323 Tulsa
324 Oklahoma St -12.5 -13.4 -0.9 325 Wyoming
326 Northern Illinois +7.0 +4.2 +2.8 327 Rutgers
328 Syracuse +2.0 +3.9 -1.9 329 Middle Tennessee
330 Virginia Tech -20.0 -22.9 -2.9 331 New Mexico St
332 New Mexico -19.0 -18.8 +0.2 333 Toledo
334 Notre Dame -17.0 -17.1 -0.1 335 Purdue
336 Connecticut +34.0 +31.5 +2.5 337 Air Force
338 Navy +5.5 +3.0 +2.5 339 Ball St
340 Penn St -22.5 -25.3 -2.8 341 Temple
342 Akron +7.0 +8.1 -1.1 343 UAB
344 Georgia -24.5 -28.1 -3.6 345 California
346 TCU -11.5 -13.8 -2.3
Week 2 Computer Projected Lines for Every CFB Game
Sat, September 11th Line Comp Diff 347 Buffalo
348 Nebraska -13.5 -14.5 -1.0 349 Iowa
350 Iowa St -4.5 -5.9 -1.4 351 Texas A&M
352 Colorado +17.0 +17.5 -0.5 353 South Alabama
354 Bowling Green +14.0 +14.0 0.0 355 Houston
356 Rice +7.5 +8.2 -0.7 357 Appalachian St
358 Miami, FL -9.0 -11.3 -2.3 359 Texas St
360 FIU -1.0 +0.7 +1.7 361 NC State
362 Mississippi St +2.5 +0.7 +1.8 363 Eastern Michigan
364 Wisconsin -26.0 -29.7 -3.7 365 North Texas
366 SMU -22.5 -20.1 +2.4 367 Liberty
368 Troy +4.0 +5.2 -1.2 369 Memphis
370 Arkansas St +5.0 +7.7 -2.7 371 Texas
372 Arkansas +7.0 +6.7 +0.3 373 Missouri
374 Kentucky -5.0 -2.0 +3.0 375 Georgia St
376 North Carolina -26.0 -24.5 +1.5 377 Washington
378 Michigan -7.0 -6.9 +0.1 379 Vanderbilt
380 Colorado St -7.0 -7.0 0.0 381 San Diego St
382 Arizona -2.0 +1.1 +3.1 383 Utah
384 BYU +7.0 +6.0 +1.0 385 UNLV
386 Arizona St -33.5 -35.0 -1.5 387 Stanford
388 USC -17.0 -16.4 +0.6 389 Hawaii
390 Oregon St -11.0 -10.1 +0.9
For the past five seasons we have posted computer projected lines for every game. Games where there was of difference of more than 3 points saw our computer lines actually beat the Vegas line at a 373-302-12 (55%) including and outstanding 71-50 (59%) last year! This year has gotten off to a slow start at 5-6. That’s still pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping in some seasons. Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Of the 6 games where our computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line (highlighted), our favor- ite team this week to back would be Missouri +5.
The Comp column is the computer projected line and the Diff column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
Week 2 CFB ATS Trends
1. If you have blindly bet the UNDER in every college football game so far this season (involv- ing an FBS team): Congrats, you are 57-31-1 (65%)! There’s some reasoning behind it. Teams are super experienced this year due to the Covid rule from last year. The cohesion of team’s de- fenses is as good as ever and we think the quality of play will be at an all-time high. Obviously, the quality of play of the NFL is far greater than CFB but it’s also a much lower scoring league.
2. UCLA is 2-0 ATS this year at +14.3 ppg.
The rest of the Pac-12 is just 2-9 ATS -9.4 ppg.
UCLA is off this weekend while Pac-12 teams Oregon and Washington play in two marquee games at Ohio St and at Michigan.
3. UConn is just 37-73-1 ATS the last 10-plus years and are 33.5-point underdogs at home this week to Purdue.
4. The UNDER is on a 38-9-1 run in Service Academy games. This week’s total between Air Force and Navy is 40.5.
5. Eastern Michigan is on a 19-3 ATS run as a road underdog. The Eagles are 26-point under- dogs this week at Wisconsin.
Betting CFB Openers
Every Sunday in Vegas at 11am PT, Circa Sports is the first book in the world to release CFB lines and we bet them every week. We think it’s the best value bets we make all week. Last season was the first season where we tracked every sin- gle bet we made and posted them in the week- ly newsletters. We were very pleased with our 119-76-3 (61%) record on these Sunday bets with an average line value of 2.6 ppg! Last week we were super aggressive and made 107 bets on Week 1 games. We were pleased with a 70-37 record with the break-down below including our CLV (closing line value).
Betting CFB Openers Week 1 Results:
FBS vs FBS: 29-21, CLV: 42-6-2 +2.8 ppg FBS vs FCS: 31-11, CLV: 40-1-1 +4.4 ppg FCS vs FCS: 10-5, CLV 9-0-6 +1 ppg
Week 2 Circa Opener Bets (see pics on Pg 5).
(305) Illinois +13, now +10
(307) WKU OVER 53 and OV 54.5, now 52 (309) Oregon OVER 58.5, now 63.5 (315) Pittsburgh -1.5, now -3.5 (315) Pittsburgh OVER 51.5, now 57 (317) South Carolina +5, now -2.5
(318) East Carolina UNDER 61.5, now 56.5 (320) Florida Atlantic -4, now -7
(327) Rutgers -2, still -2 (341) Temple -3, now -7 (343) UAB +29, now +24.5 (344) Georgia UNDER 52.5, now 46 (358) Miami, FL -6, now -9 (364) Wisconsin -24, now -26 (365) North Texas +26, now +22.5 (369) Memphis -4, now -5 (376) North Carolina -23, now -26
(376) North Carolina UNDER 69.5, now 66 (378) Michigan -4, now -7
(380) Colorado St -1, now -7 (383) Utah -4, now -7
Week 2 CFB Bets we made in the summer:
(333) Toledo +22.5, now +16.5 (338) Navy +3.5, now +5.5...bad bet!
(349) Iowa +7, now +4.5
(377) Washington +3, now +7...bad bet!
(379) Vanderbilt +10, now +7
(388) USC -10, now -17
7
Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Thursday, September 9th
TAMPA BAY 30 Dallas 20. This almost seems too easy. How do you not bet the Bucs here? Their offense didn’t get rolling until the end of last season for obvious reasons (COVID, new QB, new pieces) and then they become the first team in the Free Agency era to return all 22 starters. They’re the defending Super Bowl champs who usually do well on these opening Thursdays and will be in front of a full-capacity crowd for the first time with QB Brady under center. Dallas returns QB Prescott off injury but will he be 100%? We know All-pro guard Martin won’t be in the line-up. Lean Bucs, but we’d prefer to tease the Bucs down to -2.
Sunday, September 12th
BUFFALO 27 Pittsburgh 21. It’s not often you see Pittsburgh as such a big underdog especially against non-New England teams. It does feel like two franchises heading in opposite directions with correlation to how old their starting QB’s are (Big Ben is 39!). Pittsburgh after a 11-0 start, faded down the stretch while Buffalo won a couple of playoff games and made the AFC Championship for the first time since the early 1990s. We don’t see a ton of value here though and we should mention it now that remember these Week 1 NFL lines have been bet into for months now. Besides late-breaking injury or weather news, these lines are really tight. If you absolutely had to get involved, we lean UNDER.
CAROLINA 26 N.Y. Jets 20. The big storyline here is new Carolina QB Sam Darnold against his former team. Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson gets his first start and it’s also the first game for new head coach Robert Saleh. We’re not sold on Wilson who had a breakout season at BYU last year when the Cougars didn’t face a single Power 5 opponent. We do think Carolina will be under-valued early after head coach Matt Rhule had to deal with being a first-year coach during COVID last tear.
On top of it, his teams usually make a big jump in year two (at least they did in college).
2H HOUSTON 23 Jacksonville 22. Do you really want to lay points on the road in Urban Meyer’s first game as an NFL head coach and on top of it, rookie QB Trevor Lawrence making his first start? We cer- tainly don’t, even though the Texans are breaking in a new coach and QB themselves. However, their replacements David Culley and Tyrod Taylor have vast more NFL experience. Jacksonville is already down 1st-round draft pick RB Etienne for the season. Wrong team favored.
We like the Texans here.
TENNESSEE 29 Arizona 26. Two teams with playoff aspirations in 2021 after they both finished the season on a downward trend. Big storyline for Tennessee here is the addition of WR Julio Jones but is he still a Top 5 WR in the NFL at his age? Arizona QB Kyler Murray did get better last year but we’re not big fans of head coach Kingsbury We lean OVER more than anything.
2H WASHINGTON 24 L.A. CHARGERS 21. Obviously Chargers QB Justin Herbert is coming off arguably the best rookie season for any QB ever. That still wasn’t good enough to keep his coach’s job safe. This is a tough spot for them with a new coach across the country.
Meanwhile, the Football team comes in off a playoff berth and Wash- ington has a really good defense. It looks like they will go with 38-year old Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB who is always a wildcard. A home dog with the better defense and better head coach. Sounds like a play to us.
ATLANTA 26 Philadelphia 22. Two franchises that look to be in a downward trend after being perennial playoff teams. Both finished last in their division a year ago and both have new coaches. Biggest differ- ence for us would be the experience edge Atlanta has at QB with Matt Ryan as the Eagles were just 1-4 with Jalen Hurts a year ago. We’re not going to be too involved.
Seattle 26 INDIANAPOLIS 24. Indy QB Carson Wentz missed most of the preseason so there is a ton of uncertainty on the Indy side along with a banged up offensive line. If, and that’s a big if, Wentz stays healthy he will be an upgrade over Philip Rivers who led the Colts to the playoffs last year. Seattle has been the model of consistency with Wilson at QB. Although we’re not fond of laying this number on the road in an opener. We’re passing.
Minnesota 26 CINCINNATI 21. We think the Vikings will be un- der-valued this year. They were extremely banged up a year ago and brought in a ton of resources on defense via free agency. What will Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow be like after recovering from a knee injury?
Minnesota has a massive coaching edge here with Zimmer vs Taylor.
We lean with the Vikings.
San Francisco 27 DETROIT 17. We fully expect Detroit to be a dumpster fire this year but that’s a pretty common expectation in the marketplace. The coaching hire of Dan Campbell could go down as one of the worst in recent memory. The defense was an absolute mess last year and Jared Goff is a downgrade from Stafford at QB. Not to mention the Lions hired Anthony Lynn as OC, arguably one of the worst head coaches (as far as time management goes) in NFL history.
We haven’t even gotten to the 49ers yet who will be improved after an injury-plagued season. Does Trey Lance see time in mop-up duty?
KANSAS CITY 30 Cleveland 24. A rematch of a divisional playoff game a year ago that saw the Chiefs win but not cover 22-17. KC did lead 19-3 at halftime. Of course, in that game, there was less than 20,000 KC fans in attendance and now there will be 70,000-plus.
Cleveland made some improvements on defense this off-season while KC shored up their offensive line. The line feels right to us.
2H NEW ENGLAND 24 Miami 18. The Mac Jones era begins in New England and he faces off against his former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa. The Pats are coming off their first non-playoff season since 2008 (Brady hurt in the opener that year). Belichick and Com- pany spent a ton of money this off-season to overhaul the roster. With all the news surrounding the free agent signings and the Cam Newton vs Mac Jones debate, people forget NE saw several starters opt out of 2020 (as many as anyone). This is our most improved team this year and it starts with a win and cover here.
Denver 23 N.Y. GIANTS 20. It will be the Teddy Bridgewater show for the Broncos with the overrated Drew Lock appropriately passed over. Another storyline will be Pat Shurmur returning to the Met Life as Denver OC. Shurmur was the Giants head coach in 2018 and 2019.
Meanwhile, the Giants welcome the return of RB Saquon Barkley. But can Daniel “Fumble” Jones hold onto the ball? A lot of people we re- spect like the Broncos here but we’re not going to be involved.
L.A. RAMS 27 Chicago 19. Expectations are high in L.A. for the Rams as they will play in front of fans for the first time at Sofi Stadium.
They also bring in QB Matthew Stafford from Detroit who is very fa- miliar with playing the Bears over the last decade-plus. Meanwhile, it looks like Andy Dalton will be the starter for Chicago much to the dis- may of Bears fans who are already clamoring for rookie Justin Fields.
We’re not big fans of laying more than a TD in the NFL but we do like the Rams in a teaser here.
Green Bay 26 NEW ORLEANS 23. TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL. Obviously, this game was moved due to Hurricane Ida. This is the first time for the Saints without Drew Brees as their clear No. 1 QB since 2005. They have gone 8-1 SU without him the last two years when he was banged up. On top of that, they won’t be playing in front of their boisterous Super Dome crowd. And even with Brees and one of the best homefield advantages, they still are notorious slow starters.
On the other side, the Packers are happy to have Aaron Rodgers back under center for likely his final season in Green Bay. Still, there was too much drama for us to recommend laying more than a FG on the road. We pass.
Monday, September 13th
Baltimore 27 LAS VEGAS 24. We like the Raiders here in their first game playing in front of fans in Las Vegas. Head coach Gruden will play into that emotion and we like the addition of DC Gus Bradley on defense. Yes, the Ravens are clearly the better team but Baltimore is banged up at RB.
THE POWERS’ PACK
3H 6-point teaser Tampa Bay -2/L.A. Rams -1.5 2H HOUSTON (+3) over Jacksonville
2H WASHINGTON (PK) over L.A. Chargers 2H NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Miami
4H = BEST 3H = BETTER
2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR
