Moving the California Moving the California
Department of Corrections and Department of Corrections and
Rehabilitation from an Offense Rehabilitation from an Offense - -
Based to Risk
Based to Risk - - Based System Based System
Susan Turner Susan Turner
University of California, Irvine University of California, Irvine September 2010
September 2010
Presentation Will Cover Presentation Will Cover
Size and scope of CDCR Size and scope of CDCR
Pressures under which it currently Pressures under which it currently operates
operates
Recommendations for change Recommendations for change
Major Risk Major Risk - - Based Initiatives Based Initiatives
Lessons learned Lessons learned
California Hosts Largest California Hosts Largest
Correctional System in US Correctional System in US
Prison population is 167,000 Prison population is 167,000
– – Located in 33 institutions statewide and out Located in 33 institutions statewide and out - - of of - - state
state
– – 94% males; 14% registered sex offenders; 94% males; 14% registered sex offenders;
~60% convicted of person crimes; 41K strikers
~60% convicted of person crimes; 41K strikers – – One- One - third are parole violators third are parole violators
Parole population is 109,000 Parole population is 109,000
– – 28% convicted of person crimes 28% convicted of person crimes
– – 2/3 fail under supervision, many for technicals 2/3 fail under supervision, many for technicals
Traditionally, Focus Has Traditionally, Focus Has
Been on Offense Committed Been on Offense Committed
Three Three - - strikes legislation focuses on strikes legislation focuses on “ “ serious serious and violent
and violent ” ” conviction conviction
– – “ “ striker striker ” ” caseloads for parole caseloads for parole
Sex convictions drive institutional and parole Sex convictions drive institutional and parole placements
placements
– – GPS caseloads for high risk sex offenders GPS caseloads for high risk sex offenders
Gang affiliation increases institutional Gang affiliation increases institutional classification, parole supervision
classification, parole supervision
CDCR Faces Pressures on CDCR Faces Pressures on
Several Fronts Several Fronts
Three judge panel ruling Three judge panel ruling
– – Overcrowding contributes to poor inmate Overcrowding contributes to poor inmate health
health
– – Requires CDCR to come up with a plan to Requires CDCR to come up with a plan to reduce prison by over 40,000 inmates
reduce prison by over 40,000 inmates
Statewide budget cuts target corrections Statewide budget cuts target corrections
– – $250 mil cut to programs, 800+ teachers laid $250 mil cut to programs, 800+ teachers laid off off
– – $8.8 billion budget down from $10 bil+ $8.8 billion budget down from $10 bil+
– – 15% payroll cuts, similar to other state 15% payroll cuts, similar to other state agencies
agencies
CDCR Faces Pressures on CDCR Faces Pressures on
Several Fronts (cont) Several Fronts (cont)
California Rehabilitation Oversight Board (C California Rehabilitation Oversight Board (C - - ROB) established in 2007 by AB 900
ROB) established in 2007 by AB 900
– – Mission is to regularly examine mental Mission is to regularly examine mental
health, substance abuse, educational, and health, substance abuse, educational, and employment programs
employment programs
– – 11 member board chaired by Inspector 11 member board chaired by Inspector General
General
Representation from UCs, CSUs, community Representation from UCs, CSUs, community colleges, CDCR
colleges, CDCR … …
Expert Panel Represents Expert Panel Represents
Major Shift in Thinking Major Shift in Thinking
Experts convened in 2007 to devise Experts convened in 2007 to devise new model for CDCR program delivery new model for CDCR program delivery
Evidence Evidence - - based approaches based approaches considered for adoption
considered for adoption
– – Risk, needs, responsively focus Risk, needs, responsively focus
Critical look into programming Critical look into programming
provided by CDCR for institutions and provided by CDCR for institutions and
parole
parole
CDCR Programming Was CDCR Programming Was
Limited Limited
Half of inmates participate in Half of inmates participate in no no
programs before they are released programs before they are released
– – 18% in traditional education 18% in traditional education
– – 7% in substance abuse treatment 7% in substance abuse treatment – – 6% in vocational education 6% in vocational education
– – 37% in support services 37% in support services
Many programs are rated as complying Many programs are rated as complying with evidence
with evidence - - based practices based practices
California Logic Model California Logic Model
Developed by Expert Panel
Developed by Expert Panel
Presentation Will Cover Presentation Will Cover
Size and scope of CDCR Size and scope of CDCR
Pressures under which it currently Pressures under which it currently operates
operates
Recommendations for change Recommendations for change
Major Risk Major Risk - - Based Initiatives Based Initiatives
Lessons learned Lessons learned
Major Risk
Major Risk - - Based Initiatives Based Initiatives Developed Since EP Report
Developed Since EP Report
California Static Risk Assessment California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA)
(CSRA)
Parole Violation Decision Making Parole Violation Decision Making Instrument (PVDMI)
Instrument (PVDMI)
Non Non - - revocable parole revocable parole
New parole model New parole model
UCI Asked to Assist with Risk UCI Asked to Assist with Risk
Prediction for CDCR Population Prediction for CDCR Population
Develop an actuarial risk prediction Develop an actuarial risk prediction instrument using available data
instrument using available data
Validate the instrument to determine Validate the instrument to determine predictive power for the CDCR
predictive power for the CDCR population
population
Operate as a Operate as a “ “ plug in plug in ” ” to the existing to the existing COMPAS tool
COMPAS tool
Resulting CSRA Uses 22 Items Resulting CSRA Uses 22 Items
to Predict Recidivism to Predict Recidivism
Demographics Demographics
– – Age at release, gender Age at release, gender
Number of felony sentences Number of felony sentences
Felony sentences for murder/ manslaughter, Felony sentences for murder/ manslaughter, sex, violent, weapons, property, drug and sex, violent, weapons, property, drug and
escape offenses escape offenses
Misdemeanor sentences for assault, sex, Misdemeanor sentences for assault, sex,
weapons, property, drug, alcohol and escape weapons, property, drug, alcohol and escape
offenses offenses
Revocations of probation or parole supervision Revocations of probation or parole supervision
CSRA Scores Offenders on CSRA Scores Offenders on
Three
Three “ “ Nested Nested ” ” Sub Sub - - Scales Scales
1.1.
Violent Sub Violent Sub - - Scale Scale
2.2.
Property & Violent Sub Property & Violent Sub - - Scale Scale
3.3.
Any Felony Sub Any Felony Sub - - Scale Scale
This allows CDCR to differentiate risk by type This allows CDCR to differentiate risk by type
of recidivism
of recidivism
CSRA Risk Group Is CSRA Risk Group Is
Determined Hierarchically Determined Hierarchically
Violent Score 103 or higher?
Yes High Violent
No
Property/Viol. Score 119 or higher?
Yes High Property
No
Felony Score 127 or higher?
Yes High Drug
No
Property/Viol. Score or Felony Score 96
or higher?
Yes Moderate
No Low
CSRA Divides the Population CSRA Divides the Population
into Distinct Risk Groups into Distinct Risk Groups
48
69
82 82 82
17
28
48
34
31
10
21
26
40
31
11
22 23 26
38
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Low (22%) Moderate (33%) High Drug (9%) High Property (19%) High Violent (17%)
"Any Arrest" Rates by Risk Group
Percent Any Felony
Drug Felony Property Felony Violent Felony
Major Risk
Major Risk - - Based Initiatives Based Initiatives Developed Since EP Report
Developed Since EP Report
California Static Risk Assessment California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA)
(CSRA)
Parole Violation Decision Making Parole Violation Decision Making Instrument (PVDMI)
Instrument (PVDMI)
Non Non - - revocable parole revocable parole
New parole model New parole model
PVDMI Developed to Increase PVDMI Developed to Increase
Consistency of PV Decisions Consistency of PV Decisions
Concern that parole agent responses to Concern that parole agent responses to violations were not consistently made
violations were not consistently made
Concern with offenders Concern with offenders “ “ churning churning ” ” back back into CDCR for minor offenses
into CDCR for minor offenses
Desire to place Desire to place “ “ right right ” ” parolees in the parolees in the
“ “ right right ” ” programs programs
Possibility of reducing prison population in Possibility of reducing prison population in
response to budget and judicial pressures
response to budget and judicial pressures
PVDMI Based on Violation PVDMI Based on Violation Severity and Offender Risk Severity and Offender Risk
Low Moderate High Mandatory Referral
High Most
Intensive Mandatory Referral
Moderate Mandatory
Referral
Low Least
Intensive Mandatory
Referral Violation Severity
Least Intensive Responses Least Intensive Responses
Emphasize Community
Emphasize Community - - Based Based Programs
Programs
PVDMI Response Level 1: Least PVDMI Response Level 1: Least
Intensive Intensive
Verbal reprimand Verbal reprimand
Increase reporting requirements Increase reporting requirements
Refer to community Refer to community - - based substance based substance abuse treatment
abuse treatment
Electronic monitoring Electronic monitoring
Moderately Intensive Responses Moderately Intensive Responses
Include Treatment and Increased Include Treatment and Increased
Supervision Supervision
PVDMI Response Level 2: Moderately PVDMI Response Level 2: Moderately
Intensive Intensive
Referral to psychological assessment/ Referral to psychological assessment/
evaluation evaluation
Increase UA testing Increase UA testing
Refer to day reporting center Refer to day reporting center
Refer to structured drug treatment Refer to structured drug treatment program
program
Most Intensive Responses Include Most Intensive Responses Include
Drug Treatment and Custody Drug Treatment and Custody
Most Intensive A Most Intensive A
Placement into mental health services Placement into mental health services
Placement into intensive residential or Placement into intensive residential or outpatient drug treatment
outpatient drug treatment
Refer to Parolee Substance Abuse Program Refer to Parolee Substance Abuse Program (PSAP)
(PSAP)
Refer to In Refer to In - - Custody Drug Treatment Program Custody Drug Treatment Program (ICDTP)
(ICDTP)
Most Intensive B or C Most Intensive B or C
Recommend for revocation Recommend for revocation
Destabilizing Factors Are Required Destabilizing Factors Are Required
to Override the PVDMI to Override the PVDMI
Violation directly related to commitment offense Violation directly related to commitment offense or pattern of criminal behavior
or pattern of criminal behavior
Acutely unstable home situation Acutely unstable home situation
Demonstrated inability to support self Demonstrated inability to support self
Evidence of escalating drug or alcohol addiction Evidence of escalating drug or alcohol addiction
Chronic pattern or violations under supervision Chronic pattern or violations under supervision
Lack of appropriate program in recommended Lack of appropriate program in recommended response level
response level
Stabilizing Factors Are Required to Stabilizing Factors Are Required to
Underride the PVDMI Underride the PVDMI
Presence of positive family, peer, or other social Presence of positive family, peer, or other social support in the community
support in the community
Job stability Job stability
Enrollment/participation in an established Enrollment/participation in an established education and/or treatment program
education and/or treatment program
Stable and appropriate residence Stable and appropriate residence
Positive performance history on supervision Positive performance history on supervision
Lack of appropriate program in recommended Lack of appropriate program in recommended response level
response level
DAPO Followed PVDMI DAPO Followed PVDMI
Recommendation Majority of the
Recommendation Majority of the
Time Time
Frequency and Pattern of Current Frequency and Pattern of Current
Violation Leads to Overrides
Violation Leads to Overrides
Overrides Reveal Need for
Overrides Reveal Need for “ “ Most Most Intensive A
Intensive A ” ” Programs Programs
Lack of Programs Leads to Lack of Programs Leads to
Underrides
Underrides
“ “ Most Intensive A Most Intensive A ” ” Program Needs Program Needs Also Seen in Underrides
Also Seen in Underrides
Major Risk
Major Risk - - Based Initiatives Based Initiatives Developed Since EP Report
Developed Since EP Report
California Static Risk Assessment California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA)
(CSRA)
Parole Violation Decision Making Parole Violation Decision Making Instrument (PVDMI)
Instrument (PVDMI)
Non Non - - revocable parole revocable parole
New parole model New parole model
NRP and New Model Two NRP and New Model Two
Sides of the Coin Sides of the Coin
Remove lower Remove lower - - risk parolees from risk parolees from
supervision to concentrate on higher risk supervision to concentrate on higher risk
– – Follows risk principle Follows risk principle – – Follows need principle Follows need principle
match offenders needs with services match offenders needs with services – – Follows responsivity Follows responsivity
Train agents in MI, listening skills Train agents in MI, listening skills
– – Provides potential cost savings Provides potential cost savings
Non Non - - Revocable Parole Considers Revocable Parole Considers both Risk and
both Risk and “ “ Stakes Stakes ” ” of of Parolees
Parolees
No sex offenders No sex offenders
No prior or current No prior or current “ “ serious serious ” ” or or “ “ violent violent ” ” conviction
conviction
No convictions for serious disciplinary No convictions for serious disciplinary offense
offense
Not validated gang member Not validated gang member
Offender agrees to placement Offender agrees to placement
Not high risk on CSRA Not high risk on CSRA
– – But NOTHING about treatment needs But NOTHING about treatment needs
NRP Program Removes NRP Program Removes
Parolees from Active Caseloads Parolees from Active Caseloads
Parolees are screened and asked to sign a Parolees are screened and asked to sign a contract
contract
Law enforcement allowed Law enforcement allowed “ “ search and search and seizure
seizure ” ”
– – Outcry from local law enforcement and Outcry from local law enforcement and DAs regarding NRP
DAs regarding NRP
Treatment concerned about Treatment concerned about “ “ dumping dumping ” ”
Some parolees have minimal oversight to Some parolees have minimal oversight to finish court ordered programs
finish court ordered programs
Impact of NRP is Not yet Impact of NRP is Not yet
Known Known
UCI conducting process and outcome evaluation UCI conducting process and outcome evaluation using historical comparison group
using historical comparison group
Analysis of the Analysis of the “ “ pipeline” pipeline ” of eligibility of eligibility
– – Estimates may be smaller than previously Estimates may be smaller than previously thought
thought
Outcomes will measure technical violations as well Outcomes will measure technical violations as well as new arrests
as new arrests
Additional studies might focus on local communities Additional studies might focus on local communities – – Are courts being clogged? Are courts being clogged?
– – What pressures are placed on law enforcement, What pressures are placed on law enforcement, health, and other services
health, and other services
Lessons Learned from Lessons Learned from
Current CDCR Efforts Current CDCR Efforts
Disconnect between CDCR HQ and staff on the Disconnect between CDCR HQ and staff on the ground
ground
Staff resistance to actuarial tools Staff resistance to actuarial tools
– – Second- Second -guess tool or use information redundantly guess tool or use information redundantly
Offense still relatively more important than risk Offense still relatively more important than risk
Lack of resources (e.g., treatment availability) to Lack of resources (e.g., treatment availability) to effect evidence
effect evidence - - based changes based changes
“ “ Risk Risk ” ” vs. vs. “ “ stakes stakes ” ” causes confusion causes confusion
– – Sex offenders Sex offenders
Lessons Learned from Lessons Learned from
Current CDCR Efforts (cont) Current CDCR Efforts (cont)
Focus on risk presents fertile ground for Focus on risk presents fertile ground for critics of CDCR reform
critics of CDCR reform
– – Law enforcement, prosecutors, victims Law enforcement, prosecutors, victims ’ ’ groups use scare tactics
groups use scare tactics
Risk focus may Risk focus may “ “ push push ” ” problem to local problem to local corrections and law enforcement
corrections and law enforcement