The Future Role of Energy Efficiency for Sustainable Development

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International Process Integration Jubilee Conference Gothenburg, Sweden, March 18 – 20, 2013

The Future Role of Energy Efficiency for Sustainable Development

Thomas B. Johansson

Professor em., International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, Sweden

Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessment, IIASA, Austria

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Challenges requiring actions on Energy

a. Energy services for growing populations, 7 to 9 billion by 2050; and economies, 2%/a per capita

b. Universal access to modern forms of energy (the ~3 billion w/o access)

c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??)

d. secure supplies, from households to nations; “peak oil”

e. health and environment challenges (WHO guidelines ++) f. planetary boundaries, incl. climate change mitigation

(<+2 deg above pre.ind.) g. Peace

h. ancillary risks (large accidents, nuclear weapons proliferation, too high food prices, ...)

=> Major Energy System and Policy Changes Needed!

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adequately timely

simultaneously

These challenges must be addressed

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• Initiated to explore the role of energy and energy options addressing local, regional, and global sustainability,

• The work involved >300 Authors from five continents,

• Peer-review by >200 Anonymous Reviewers coordinated by Review Editors

• Final report (Cambridge University Press), 1880 pages, just published (September 2012). Free download from IIASA.

Global Energy Assessment

Towards a Sustainable Future

4

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0 100 200 300 400 500

1850 1900 1950 2000

Primary Energy (EJ)

Biomass Oil Gas Renewable

Nuclear Microchip

Steam

motor

Gasoline tube

Commercial Nuclear

Television

engine

engine Electric

Vacuum

energy

Coal aviation

World Primary Energy

Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1998

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The challenges translate into a need for a major energy systems

transformation

Main elements:

● Energy end-use efficiency

● Renewable energies

● Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC

only)

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Passive Buildings

Energy use for space conditioning reduced by 90+ % through application of better

insulation, windows, doors etc., as well as heat recovery and solar gains. Applicable to both new construction and renovation.

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz

0 50 100 150 200 250

Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům celková energie [kWh/m2 a] - 90%

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Example of savings by reconstruction

Reconstruction according to the passive house

principle

-90% 15 kWh/(m²a) over 150 kWh/(m²a)

Before reconstruction

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006

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final energy use: global heating and cooling

● Thermal Comfort Final Energy

● Floor Area

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Energy, PWh/year

Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 0

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Floor Area, 1E9 m^2

Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard

- 43 % +126 %

Source: GEA Chapter 10

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Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004

¹¹

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Transportation

Source: GEA Chapters 9, 12, and 17

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Bangladesh

The importance of combining new technology with

effective implementation,

here the Grameen Bank

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Energy could come from deserts

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Global New Investmens in Renewables

Source: GSR, REN21, 2012

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Figur från Tomas Kåberger

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Nuclear PWR Investment Costs

US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs

US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA Chapter 24 1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

2008$/kW

US average

France best guess

1980

1977

1985

1971

1975

1980 1983

1996

1995

5000

2000 3000 4000

1000

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electricity to gr id

biomass upstream emissions coal upstream emissions

char

coal

flue gases grid electricity displaced

photosynthesis vehicle tailpipe

CO₂ storage

fuel

biomass

Conversion

Fuel transport/distribution

ATMOSPHERE

Co-gasification of coal and biomass for the Co-production of power, fuels, and chemicals with CCS leading to negative carbon emissions

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Objectives and goals for the GEA energy back-casting scenario for 2050

• Support economic growth at recent historic rates

• Almost universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking, by 2030

• Reduce air pollution impacts on health, adhering to WHO guidelines

• Avoid dangerous climate change, stay below + 2 ^oC above pre- industrial global mean temperature

• Improve energy security through enhanced diversity and resilience of energy supply

• And in the process, address peak oil and nuclear weapons proliferation challenges

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Branching points in GEA backcasting analysis

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Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Advanced

transportation

Conventional transportation

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Microchip Commercial

aviation

Television Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam engine

Nuclear energy

aviation

Television Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam engine

Nuclear energy

aviation

Television Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam engine

Nuclear energy

GEA – Efficiency

GEA – Mix

GEA – Supply

X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X X X X X X

The three major combinations:

- Efficiency

- Mix

-Supply

and variations of constraints on supply options

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GEA-Supply Pathway

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Geothermal Solar

Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil

Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Nuclear

Oil Gas

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Geothermal Solar

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Geothermal Solar

Nuclear

Oil Gas

Nuclear

Oil Gas

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Matching policies to investment needs

Source: Chapter 22

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0 5000 10000 15000 20000

1974 1976

1978 1980

1982 1984

1986 1988

1990 1992

1994 1996

1998 2000

2002 2004

2006 2008

Million US$2008 PPP

Other Efficiency Renewables Fossil Fuels Fusion

Nuclear w/o fusion

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MIN Mean Max 1974-2008 2008

Nuclear Renewables Fossil Fuels Other Energy Efficiency

Min Mean Max In future mitigation scenarios (technology needs portfolio)

1974-2008 2008 public energy R&D

(past, current R&D portfolio)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MIN Mean Max 1974-2008 2008

Nuclear Renewables Fossil Fuels Other Energy Efficiency

Min Mean Max In future mitigation scenarios (technology needs portfolio)

1974-2008 2008 public energy R&D

(past, current R&D portfolio) future technology needs

share in 2000-2100 cum.

emission reduction

past and current R&D into developing improved technologies,

shares by technology

Public Sector Energy RD&D in IEA Member countries by major technology group

Distribution of past and current energy R&D as compared to future technology needs from the pathways analysis

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Simultaneous economic development, poverty alleviation, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions

● The concept multiple benefits

● Value all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment, reduced climate impacts, ...)

● To characterize costs of a project in terms of € per tC avoided is misleading.

● Efficient use of energy, esp. at the point of end-use

● Renewable energies

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not just energy technology

● Urban planning

● Transportation systems, personal and freight

● Material use

● Land use

● Consumption patterns

● …..

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GEA Key Findings:

1. Energy Systems can be Transformed to Support a Sustainable Future.

2. An Effective Transformation Requires Immediate Action.

3. Energy Efficiency is an Immediate and Effective Option.

4. Renewable Energies are Abundant, Widely Available, and Increasingly Cost-effective.

5. Major Changes in Fossil Energy Systems are Essential and Feasible.

6. Universal Access to Modern Energy Carriers and Cleaner Cooking by 2030 is Possible.

7. An Integrated Energy System Strategy is Essential.

8. Energy Options for a Sustainable Future bring Substantial, Multiple Benefits for Society.

9. Socio-Cultural Changes as well as Stable Rules and Regulations will be Required.

10. Policies, Regulations, and Stable Investment Regimes will be Essential.

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The Future Role of Energy Efficiency for Sustainable Development

International Process Integration Jubilee Conference Gothenburg, Sweden, March 18 – 20, 2013