Delft University of Technology
Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities
Jenkins, A.J.; Keeffe, Greg; Hall, Natalie
Publication date 2014
Document Version Final published version Citation (APA)
Jenkins, A. J., Keeffe, G., & Hall, N. (2014). Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities. Paper presented at 6th International AESOP Sustainable Food Planning Conference, Leeuwarden, Netherlands. Important note
To cite this publication, please use the final published version (if applicable). Please check the document version above.
Copyright
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons. Takedown policy
Please contact us and provide details if you believe this document breaches copyrights. We will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
This work is downloaded from Delft University of Technology.
THE INTEGRATION OF URBAN AGRICULTURE AND THE SOCIO-‐ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE OF FUTURE CITIES
Andy Jenkins‑1, Greg Keeffe2
Keywords: Urban Agriculture, Ecosystem Services, Social, Economic, Well-‐Being
Ci4es rely upon the provision of imported foods in order to sustain their large and ever growing popula4ons. As a result, the ecological footprint of ci4es is far greater than their geographical areas. Through the integra4on of facade and roof-‐based food systems, agriculture within urban environments has the ability to grow vast amounts of food upon some of the most underused and undervalued areas of the built environment; in the case of Manchester, England, this food produc4on is es4mated to be 180 million crops per annum. Such large-‐scale agricultural systems would not only reduce a ci4es ecological footprint by reducing the need for imported foods, but their integra4on would also engage with the city at an economic and social level.
The following paper aims to understand the addi4onal posi4ve impacts of urban agriculture beyond the feeding of ci4es and postulates how such impacts might affect the physical health, mental well-‐ being and financial security of urban popula4ons. It is known that ci4es can produce large quan44es of food, but agriculture within urban environments can help reduce air pollu4on, decrease depression, promote healthy lifestyles, create jobs and ul4mately reduce premature loss of life. Urban agriculture is a viable driver of environmental change, but it is also a catalyst for social and economic reform.
1. Introduc+on
Urban agriculture is capable of producing large volumes of crops upon the surface area of ci4es through the integra4on of horizontal and ver4cal based food systems. In doing so, a mul4tude of suppor4ng services are created such as air filtra4on, psychological restora4on, and the crea4on of jobs. The following paper aims to understand the role these suppor4ng services play in the physical, psychological and financial well-‐being of urban popula4ons, and is a broad overview of the different ways in which urban agriculture can engage with ci4es, beyond the produc4on of food. The research, in most cases, does not aim to quan4fy these impacts but instead discusses the linkages between prevalent issues within the urban context and the addi4onal services provided through the integra4on of urban agriculture. Although the research discusses urban agriculture economics, it is not the role of this paper to develop robust economic models. Instead, the paper aims to use simple methods of analysis to determine the impact of urban agriculture on local economies and job crea4on; developing a basic understanding from which other studies can build from in the future. 2. Global Food Demand
At some point during 2010 and 2011, the world’s popula4on surpassed 7 billion people for the first 4me in human history (The Economic and Social Affairs Division of the United Na4ons (ESA), 2015). As a result, the availability of agricultural land per capita has reduced greatly. In 1970, 0.38 hectares of global agricultural land was available per person. This value decreased to 0.23 hectares in 2000, and is projected to decline to 0.15 hectares per capita by 2050 (The Food and Agricultural
Organisa4on of the United Na4ons (FAO), 2012). A single hectare of agricultural land will need to supply enough food for 6.7 people per annum in 2050, whereas the same area of land in 1970 had only to produce enough food for 2.6 people.
The rela4onship between agricultural land share and food produc4on is not always a direct one, however. Due to increased economic prosperity and changing dietary habits, it is es4mated that food produc4on will need to increase by 70 percent in developed countries, and 100 percent in developing countries by 2050, when referring to produc4on values of 2005 through to 2007 (Bruinsma, 2009). In accordance with this, the Interna4onal Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) is predic4ng global cereal demand to increase by 75 percent between 2000 and 2050 and global meat demand to double during the same 4me period (IAASTD, 2009). If these es4ma4ons are correct, the increase in produc4on will have to be met regardless of changing climates and concerns over energy security. The Royal Society (2009) s4pulated that this growth in food produc4on must be achieved for the most part without the cul4va4on of addi4onal land and without further damage to essen4al ecosystem services.
3. Ecosystem Services
Ecosystem services are primarily described as the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). These include, but are not limited to, food, natural fibres, purifica4on of water, air filtra4on, regula4on of pests and diseases, pollina4on, habitat for wildlife and beneficial species, microclimate regula4on, medicinal substances, noise reduc4on, carbon sequestra4on, nutrient cycling, open space, cultural heritage, and protec4on from natural hazards such as floods.
Throughout human evolu4on, mankind has depended upon ecosystem services for food and water. Since the incep4on of the first ci4es, this dependence on ecosystem services has not changed. The city of Uruk, founded by the Sumerians in 3500BC, was dependent on the flooding of the River Tigris and River Euphrates to enhance the fer4lity of their soils. However, this flooding was unpredictable and so led to unpredictable harvests. To combat this, the city constructed the first ar4ficial landscapes. Uruk built a series of large levees to contain the river and constructed sophis4cated irriga4on systems to distribute this water evenly to outlying farms (Steel, 2013). By moulding the natural world to suit their needs the Sumerians could predict their harvests more accurately, enabling them to hold a larger sta4c popula4on and by doing so, establish the basic ground rules of urban civilisa4on.
In 3500BC, the adjacency and connec4on of ecosystem services and seelement was clearly visible. City and nature combined to form the ‘city-‐state’, exemplifying the dependency of city prosperity and urban well-‐being on ecosystem services. Since the inven4on of global trade, however, these ecosystem services have been displaced well beyond the civic boundaries of today's ci4es and as such, urban dwellers of today struggle to engage with such services beyond a weekly trip to the supermarket. This disconnec4on not only shields urban popula4ons from the vital role nature plays in their lives, but it separates the very processes that are needed to keep people alive from the areas they are most needed; i.e. ci4es. The effects of this disconnec4on can be clearly seen, both physically and psychologically, within urban popula4ons.
4. Urban Health
Issues of mental health and physical wellbeing are becoming increasingly important in developed countries where, for example, depression and anxiety rates have risen despite increases in economic prosperity and improved living standards. Given the projected growth in the propor4on of people living within ci4es, it is becoming increasingly significant to understand the poten4al impacts of the urban context on physical health and mental wellbeing
Urbanisa4on is a process closely linked with economic development, but its impact on health and wellbeing can, in some instances, be drama4c. Non-‐communicable diseases (NCDs) -‐ mainly cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes -‐ are the world’s biggest killers. More than 36 million people die annually from NCDs accoun4ng for 63 percent of global deaths each year (World Health Organisa4on (WHO), 2013). The primary causes in most cases of premature death from NCDs are tobacco use, an unhealthy diet, physical inac4vity and the excessive consump4on of alcohol. Although urban development can not be held responsible for these risk factors, the urban context is associated with the adop4on of lifestyles that favour the development of NCDs (Van de Poel et al., 2009). This is due in part to increased exposure to outdoor air pollu4on, overcrowding, crime, stressful work and social isola4on, as well as the increased consump4on of salt and high sugar foods, reduced physical ac4vity, and increased tobacco use. All of which increase the risk of hypertension and obesity, leading to increases in heart disease, stroke, certain cancers and diabetes (Mendez, Popkin, 2009). Although developed countries only account for 14 percent of the total annual deaths from NCDs, they also only account for 17 percent of the world's total popula4on (ESA, 2015). Therefore, tackling the causes of NCDs is a shared responsibility between both developed and developing regions.
Psychiatric disorders, including stress and anxiety amongst other condi4ons, is one area in which the urban context can drama4cally affect the wellbeing of an individual. Taking twenty of the highest quality studies over a twenty-‐year period Peen et al. (2009) discovered there was a significant correla4on between urban living and decreased psychological well-‐being. The research, u4lising studies from 1985 to 2005 within high-‐income countries, discovered that the presence of psychological condi4ons, in general, were 38 percent higher in urban areas than in rural areas. This also included for mood disorders (i.e. depression), which were 39 percent higher and anxiety disorders, which were 21 percent higher (Peen et al, 2009). Within the UK, the total cost of depression and anxiety in 2007 was £7.5 billion and £8.9 billion respec4vely. The total spent on psychological disorders in the same year -‐ minus that spent on demen4a -‐ was £33.8 billion which is expected to rise to £36.8 billion by 2026 (McCrone et al. 2008). These psychological disorders, as a result of city living, need addressing to help increase the mental well-‐being of urban popula4ons, reduce the economic strain brought about by these condi4ons, and to reduce the number of those affected developing more serious physical condi4ons. Psychological wellbeing is of huge importance within urban environments, but it is not the only issues affec4ng people within ci4es.
The nega4ve effects of breathing pollu4on are abundant and as such, urban air quality is another area for concern. Air pollu4on is primarily compromised of par4culate maeer (including sulphate, nitrates, ammonia, sodium chloride, black carbon, mineral dust and water), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). Urban air pollu4on can be responsible for such problems as Chronic Obstruc4ve Pulmonary Disease (COPD), which is a collec4on of lung diseases including chronic bronchi4s, emphysema and chronic obstruc4ve airways disease. Within the UK, air pollu4on is es4mated to reduce life expectancy by seven to eight months (Environmental Audit Commieee, 2010) and within Europe, over 100,000 deaths are recorded per year as a direct result of exposure to
fine par4culate maeer (WHO, 2003). Air pollu4on ul4mately leads towards poor health and loss of life -‐ both of which affect physical and mental well-‐being -‐ but the cost of trea4ng these issues is also very high. For example, the total direct cost of COPD to the NHS in the UK is over £800 million per annum, with the indirect cost of lost produc4vity to employers and the economy es4mated at £3.8 billion a year (NHS Medical Directorate, 2012). The total cost of health problems related specifically to par4culate maeer are even higher; es4mated to be between £9.1 and 21.4 billion per annum (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), 2007).
The effects of air pollu4on in regards to asthma is also a concern within urban environments. High levels of air pollu4on can exacerbate symptoms found within asthma sufferers and in some cases, can lead to fatal asthma aeacks. It is es4mated that an addi4onal 100 million people will be diagnosed with asthma by 2025 (Masoli et al, 2004), which currently accounts for approximately 250,000 annual deaths worldwide. (Bousquet, Khaltaev, 2007). It is expected that urban air quality will con4nue to deteriorate globally if no new policies are implemented and outdoor air pollu4on (par4culate maeer and ground-‐level ozone) is projected to become the top cause of environmentally related deaths worldwide by 2050 (Organisa4on for Economic Coopera4on and Development, 2012). Hence, the improvement of air quality is cri4cal to reducing premature death and improving the quality of life. Although not necessarily exacerbated within urban areas (Peytremann-‐Bridevaux et al., 2007, Befort et al., 2012) obesity is quickly becoming a global epidemic. Diabetes, on the other hand, is projected to increase globally as a result of urbanisa4on (Wild et al., 2004). In 2012, an es4mated 62 percent of adults were overweight in England; 24.7 percent of which were obese, with 2.4 percent noted as severely obese (Public Health England, 2014a). Consequently, diabetes is also on the rise. In 2013, 2.7 million adults were diagnosed with diabetes in England; an increase of 137,000 people from the previous year (Prescribing and Primary Care Team, 2013). Within the UK, 10,000 premature deaths per annum are linked to obesity (Faculty of Public Health, n/d) with type 2 diabetes accoun4ng for 23,300 deaths per annum in England alone (Public Health England, 2014b). As with the psychiatric issues noted previously, and issues rela4ng to air pollu4on, there is a high cost in simply caring for people with these condi4ons. Obesity costs the UK £4.2 billion pounds per annum and type 2 diabetes and its related effects on healthcare and the economy account for expenditures of £13 billion per year (Public Health England, 2014b). Only through challenging the risk factors associated with NCDs -‐ specifically physical inac4vity and poor diets -‐ will the prevalence of obesity and diabetes start to decline, bringing with it healthier popula4ons who live longer and happier lives.
Due to the linkages between lifestyle choices and the primary risk factors of NCDs, the majority of premature deaths are largely preventable by tackling the associated risks (WHO, 2013). Although it can be argued that these risks can not be directly resolved through urban agriculture, the integra4on of agriculture within urban environments can promote alterna4ve lifestyles to those currently offered within ci4es and help reduce the impacts of said risks. It is hoped that the integra4on of urban agriculture, and its ability to grow food, decrease air pollutants, increase access to restora4ve natural environments and promote healthier lifestyles, will lead towards increased psychological and physical wellbeing in urban popula4ons; allowing people to live happier longer lives.
5. The Impact of Urban Agriculture
Human well-‐being consists of security, the basic materials for a viable livelihood (food, shelter, clothing, energy, etc., or the income necessary to purchase them), freedom and choice, good health, and good social-‐cultural rela4ons. (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Ul4mately, all aspects
of human life are defined by the access to ecosystem services such as food, clean water and fresh air. If these primary requirements are not met, other aspects such as access to energy will not fill the void. It can, therefore, be argued that the wellbeing of mankind is directly propor4onal to the health of the biosphere. Unfortunately, man's ac4ons have resulted in great ecological damage since the industrial revolu4on, leading to such impacts as deforesta4on and the burning of fossil fuels; both of which contribute to degraded air quality and global warming.
If the above factors of human well-‐being are combined with the primary causes of non-‐ communica4ve diseases, three dis4nct categories emerge in which the impact of urban agriculture can quan4fied; physical health, psychological well-‐being, and financial security. The following will discuss how urban agriculture can benefit society in these three key areas so as to build an understanding of the future socio-‐economic cohesion of agriculture and urbanity.
5.1 Physical Health -‐ Food ProducEon
Taking the aforemen4oned primary causes of non-‐communica4ve diseases -‐ tobacco use, poor diet, physical inac4vity and alcohol use -‐ it can be argued that the integra4on of agriculture within urban environments is capable of directly and posi4vely affec4ng some but not all of these issues. For example, urban agriculture cannot directly effect excessive alcoholism or reduce the use of tobacco. The integra4on of urban agriculture can, however, help promote healthier lifestyles through the social cohesion of food produc4on with both public and private space.
The obvious, and most prevalent way in which urban agriculture can affect physical health is through the produc4on of organic crops. In and effort to quan4ty citywide urban food produc4on Queen’s University Belfast designed and constructed a working elevated aquaponic food system within a disused mill in Manchester, England. The system was par4ally contained within the building and par4ally upon the roof, where light levels were highest. The aquaponic system was capable of growing a maximum of 16,500 crops per annum, which corresponded to 26.66 crops/m2 taking into considera4on space needed for fish, filtra4on and access (Jenkins et al. 2015).
Although the aquaponic system was successful, it was clear upon comple4on that it may not necessarily be good prac4ce or cost effec4ve in future to locate these systems inside buildings. They not only take up space within structures that could otherwise be u4lised for office or residen4al purposes, but they also create issues related to flooding and water ingress. Hence, the decision was taken to consider these types of systems only on the external envelopes of buildings, where light levels are highest and the presence of water is not an issue.
In addi4on to the elevated aquaponic system, a facade system was also developed to explore the possibili4es of ver4cal growing upon buildings. The facade-‐farm prototype used all the available research from the larger aquaponic system, and miniaturised it into a space 3m high, 2.5m wide and 0.35m deep. This double skin facade housed all the components seen within the larger system, including fish tanks, filtra4on and growing channels. The facade-‐farm was capable of delivering 15 crops/m2, taking into account the space required for fish and filtra4on. Although the density of crops was lower due to overshadowing of one crop on another, the facade prototype enabled a viable op4on for crop growth upon the ver4cal surfaces of ci4es (Jenkins et al. 2014: Jenkins et al. 2015). In order to es4mate citywide food produc4on, the informa4on of crops per metre squared of the elevated aquaponic system had to applied to a city. The city of Manchester was chosen as a case
study for this exercise due to the proximity of the urban farm to the city centre. Through the use of three-‐dimensional modelling, an annual ligh4ng study was carried out across the city and the ver4cal and horizontal data from the elevated aquaponic system was applied (fig. 3). It was calculated that the city centre of Manchester was capable of growing an es4mated 180.4 million crops per year upon its ver4cal and horizontal surfaces (Jenkins et al., 2015). Such high levels of organic food produc4on would hopefully see an increase in fruit and vegetable consump4on, leading towards healthier popula4ons.
5.2 Physical Health -‐ Air PolluEon
Adop4ng the same area studied for the ligh4ng study of Manchester, further inves4ga4on was taken to analyse the provision of green space within the city. It can be seen that the current propor4on of green space within the city is par4cularly low (fig. 1). The city centre of Manchester covers an area approximately 402.3 hectares in size, of which green space accounts for only 24.2 hectares; approximately 6 percent of the study area. This green space also includes for public green spaces which occupy approximately 5.4 hectares of the city; accoun4ng for 1.3 percent of the study area. Urban green space is key to the increase of air quality as it not helps in carbon sequestra4on and oxygen produc4on, but also aids in the reduc4on of par4culate maeer, and can in some cases absorb ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2).
Figure 1. Current green space within Manchester city centre (leS) with possible green space (right)
Taking into account only horizontal food systems upon flat roofs of the city, urban agriculture would add an addi4onal 76 hectares of green space to the study area; increasing total green space by 314 percent (fig. 1). Although the ver4cal surfaces of the city centre capable of suppor4ng crop growth is es4mated to be 167.7 hectares, the crop growth per metre squared against that of horizontal systems is 56 percent less. Therefore, the rela4ve compara4ve area for crop growth upon ver4cal surfaces is 94 hectares. If ver4cal growing is also taken into considera4on, the total cumula4ve addi4on of green space within the city through the integra4on of urban agriculture would be 170 hectares. As a result, the ci4es capacity to sequester carbon, produce oxygen, and remove par4culate maeer and other damaging chemical compounds, is increased by 702 percent; making the city eight 4mes more efficient at processing air pollu4on. The crea4on of cleaner urban environments will not only beeer protect those suffering from respiratory diseases but it will hopefully lead to the reduc4on in the
development of such diseases, as well as indirectly promote physical ac4vity through the crea4on of cleaner and more engaging urban spaces.
5.3 Psychological Wellbeing
In the majority of cases, urban dwellers have liele to no engagement with ecosystem services and as such, depression and anxiety are on the rise within urban areas. Depression and anxiety are found to be 39 percent and 21 percent higher respec4vely in urban areas (Peen et al, 2009) and this, along with lack of connec4on to the aforemen4oned ecosystem services, can nega4vely affect the wellbeing of an individual. Urban agriculture, beyond its primary role of food produc4on, can contribute to reduc4ons in stress, depression and anxiety within urban environments through the increased provision of green space within ci4es. This, in addi4on to increased air quality and more engaging public spaces, can lead to vast improvements in the psychological well-‐being of urban popula4ons.
The effects of green space within urban environments on both physiological and psychological indicators have been researched extensively over the past twenty years. The primary consensus being that the exposure to natural environments has a number of benefits over urban environments. Natural environments are said to have restora4ve quali4es which help the human body recover aper periods of stress. This theory suggests that humans evolved a posi4ve psychological response to unthreatening natural environments, to allow fast and effec4ve recovery from the stress response. It is believed that modern humans retained this posi4ve response to natural environments and it is s4ll as crucial today as it was many millennia ago (Ulrich, 1993).
In this context, restora4on is defined as ‘the process of recovering physiological, psychological and social resources that have become diminished in efforts to meet the demands of everyday life’ (Har4g, 2007). These restora4ve quali4es include, but are not limited to, the reduc4on in blood pressure, levelling of heart rate, reduc4on in muscle tension and reduc4on in stress hormone levels as well as the strengthening of the immune system (Har4g et al., 2003; Park et al., 2010). The greater an individual’s need for restora4on (i.e. the more stressed and/or fa4gued they are) the more they benefit from exposure to natural environments (Oeosson and Grahn, 2008). This natural connec4on between humans and ecosystems is so strong, that restora4on can even be achieved through non-‐ tangible experiences; i.e. when viewed through a window, viewed in a picture or seen within an artwork. It is believed that natural features if viewed through a window, allow people the opportunity for ‘micro-‐restora4ve’ experiences in their everyday indoor environment. Although brief, these micro-‐ experiences can mount up to result in a measurable cumula4ve benefit (Kaplan, 1993).
The introduc4on of urban agriculture to the study area of Manchester city centre, as men4oned previously, would increase green space within the city by over 700 percent, adding an addi4onal 107 hectares of restora4ve infrastructure to the city. Although the majority of this newly created foliage would be inaccessible to most, the views out from buildings within the city would be transformed from views of glass, concrete and steel to a sea of vegeta4on spreading across roopops, spilling down facades and engaging with the public realm. This in itself would bring with it a mul4tude of opportuni4es for micro-‐restora4on throughout the day as well as opportuni4es of for full psychological restora4on through the crea4on of vegeta4ve social spaces. In order to create vegeta4ve social spaces within the city, there is no reason why, for example, 10 percent of urban agriculture upon flat roofs could not also be u4lised also as public space. This addi4onal alloca4on of green space -‐ i.e. 17 hectares -‐ would increase social green space within the city by 140 percent. A
huge increase in terms of both area and social wellbeing. Urban agriculture would also create social spaces for public engagement at ground level through the crea4on of markets, shops and cafes, including such elements as facade-‐farms which employ a ‘pick-‐your-‐own’ policy, crea4ng a new breed of supermarket which spans an en4re city. Social engagement is a prerequisite for psychological wellbeing and the opportunity to create a mul4tude of social spaces, as well as restora4ve and micro-‐ restora4ve environments, through the integra4on of urban agriculture, is abundant.
Physical ac4vity, although also linked with physical well-‐being, has a profound effect on the psychological wellbeing of an individual. Exercise is key to mental wellbeing but within urban environments, exercise in the tradi4on sense is hard to fit into daily life. However, even brief five-‐ minute spells of green exercise can lead to large benefits (Barton and Preey, 2010). As with restora4ve environments, those who are in most need of help gain more in terms of improvement of mood and self-‐esteem as a result of green exercise (Roe and Aspinall, 2011). Consequently, green exercise projects are increasingly seen as a valuable form of treatment for mental health problems. The integra4on of urban agriculture can help in the produc4on of green corridors throughout the city which aid in urban flow and allow all people, including those struggling with psychiatric problems, to benefit through posi4ve and reasser4ng green ac4vity.
Spending 4me in green environments, whether combined with physical ac4vity or simply for passive relaxa4on, has a posi4ve effect on a range of physiological and psychological indicators, including blood pressure, levels of stress hormones, immune system func4onality, cogni4ve func4oning, mood and self-‐esteem. Urban agriculture is more than capable of delivering these services in addi4on to producing fresh organic food; demonstra4ng the key role agriculture can play within urban environments.
5.3 Financial Security
Ecosystem services are key to the well-‐being of urban popula4ons but they are also key to a successful economy; providing the resources needed to produce goods and services, plus absorb and process unwanted by-‐products. Environmental assets and services also help contribute to managing economic risks. (Everee et al., 2010). As men4oned previously, financial security also contributes to the well-‐being of a popula4on and the crea4on of jobs as a result of a strong local economy is central to this.
Urban agriculture has the poten4al to not only provide ecosystem services such as air-‐filtra4on and food produc4on, but is also capable of crea4ng thousands of jobs within ci4es. It is es4mated that the city of Manchester can grow approximately 180 million crops per annum, achieving a sale value of between £360 million and £720 million per year (Jenkins et al., 2015). Such massive levels of crop growth would require a substan4al workforce, crea4ng jobs from seedling planters, to opera4ons managers. Although unemployment within the UK is slowly falling, 1.82 million people are s4ll out of work (Office for Na4onal Sta4s4c (ONS), 2015) and with the recession of 2007/2008 s4ll affec4ng economic ac4vi4es today, it is becoming increasing important for businesses to become less reliant on global markets.
As men4oned at the start of this paper, it is not the role of this research to develop robust economic models for urban agriculture. Instead, the paper aims to use simple methods of analysis to determine the impact of urban agriculture within local economies. For the proceeding approxima4on of job crea4on within the city of Manchester the lower of the two es4mates for annual turnover -‐ i.e. £360
million -‐ will be taken in order to represent the worst case scenario. This value is the sum of profit, human capital and running costs. The profit, running costs and cost of human capital of any company or business are extremely sensi4ve to external pressures and complex to calculate. Hence, simple exis4ng informa4on will be used to inform the data. A supermarket chain within the UK will be used to help inform opera4onal profits, a study of fortune 500 companies in the United States will be used to determine the cost of human capital and the remaining money will be assigned to running costs such as power and costs of repairs. The UK wage distribu4on percen4le will then be used to generate the wage distribu4on across the business model for urban agriculture in Manchester.
Tesco is a large supermarket chain in the UK and reported opera4onal profits of 9.2 percent in 2015 (Tesco, 2015). If this is applied to the projected turnover of urban agriculture in Manchester, approximately £33 million would be set aside to invest in new technologies, training new staff, engage in social ac4vi4es and ul4mately protect the business model; leaving £327 million to be spent on human capital and maintenance costs. The percentage spent on human capital is approximately 70 percent of total expenditure within large businesses (Human Capital Management Ins4tute, n/d), calcula4ng the available expenditure on job crea4on at £229 million per annum; leaving £98 million for energy costs, cost of repairs, rental of roof space/facade space, adver4sing etc. If the value of £229 million for the cost of human capital is compared to the average distribu4on of wage per 1 percent of popula4on within the UK (HM Revenues and Customs, 2015) the job crea4on of urban agriculture within Manchester can be calculated. For example, the 1st percen4le of the labour force in the UK earn on average £8,370 per annum which accounts for 0.3 percent of the total wage bill of the UK. On the other hand, the 99th percen4le of the workforce earn on average £150,000 per annum, which accounts for 5.5 percent of the total wage bill of the UK (HM Revenues and Customs, 2015). By using the same propor4ons of wage spend per 1 percent of popula4on and applying it to the workforce of urban agriculture within Manchester, it can be calculated that 8,385 jobs would be created within the city at varying levels of importance and income. For the purposes of this exercise a sample of the data has been provided indica4ng 84.7 jobs are created for every one percent of workforce, equalling 8,385 job in total. It should be noted that the es4mated number of jobs created is not a result of intense economic study and as such should be taken as an approxima4on only. The crea4on of a strong local economy through the integra4on of urban agriculture is apparent. In Manchester alone, the annual gross turnover is es4mated to be between £360 million and £720 million and would create over 8,000 direct jobs and numerous indirect job opportuni4es, in addi4on to genera4ng approximately £30 million a year to invest in local community projects and technological advances.
6. Conclusions
Today, 54 percent of the world's popula4on live in ci4es (ESA, 2015) and this propor4on is expected to reach 66.4 percent by 2050; accoun4ng for 1.1 billion people in developed regions and 5.2 billion people in developing regions (ESA, 2014). Although cites are primarily man-‐made techno-‐centric environments, they depend en4rely on ecosystem services well beyond their civic boundaries. As a result, ci4es are primarily reliant on imports from foreign lands. This prac4ce of impor4ng food not only leaves ci4es vulnerable to shock and change, but also requires vast amounts of energy to harvest, package, refrigerate, freeze and transport the food needed by urban popula4ons; all of which depend on the burning of fossil fuels. If ci4es are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with ecosystem services at increasingly localised levels. Urban agriculture, in most respects, provides a viable solu4on to producing food where demand is highest. Although the food produced within urban environments through non-‐intensive farming methods (i.e. natural lit polytunnels and facades) will never be able to produce the total amount of food needed by urban popula4ons, it can help reduce the need for imported foods, as well as reduce the need to cul4vate natural environments elsewhere.
The role of urban agriculture is primarily to produce food, but it can also improve many aspects of urban life. Urban environments can dras4cally affect the physiological and psychological wellbeing of an individual. Air pollu4on, poor diets, physical inac4vity, depression, anxiety and financial insecurity are all issues which affect the wellbeing of individuals and urban agriculture can help remedy these issues to varying degrees. In the case of Manchester, England the integra4on of urban agriculture can increase vegeta4on within the city by over 700 percent. In doing so the ability to sequester carbon, produce oxygen, reduce par4culate maeer and to varying degrees reduce ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and sulphur dioxide is increased. All of which reduce the probability of urban popula4ons suffering asthma aeacks or developing chronic obstruc4ve pulmonary diseases. The reduc4on in people with respiratory diseases not only saves money by reducing pa4ent numbers but more importantly, leads towards healthier and happier urban popula4ons. Addi4onal green vegeta4on within ci4es, even if
Table 1. Sample data of job crea*on when applied to percen*le earnings of UK (UA = Urban Agriculture) Percentile of
Workforce Average WageUK Annual Percentage of UK wage
bill
Money available to
UA Creation in UAMoney for Job Number of Jobs Created by UA
1st £8,370 0.31 £229,000,000 £708,949 84.7 10th £10,900 0.40 £229,000,000 £923,244 84.7 20th £13,100 0.48 £229,000,000 £1,109,586 84.7 30th £15,400 0.57 £229,000,000 £1,304,399 84.7 40th £18,000 0.67 £229,000,000 £1,524,623 84.7 50th £21,000 0.78 £229,000,000 £1,778,726 84.7 60th £24,800 0.92 £229,000,000 £2,100,591 84.7 70th £29,700 1.10 £229,000,000 £2,515,627 84.7 80th £36,700 1.36 £229,000,000 £3,108,536 84.7 90th £49,200 1.82 £229,000,000 £4,167,302 84.7 99th £150,000 5.55 £229,000,000 £12,705,188 84.7 TOTAL (84.7 x 99) = 8,385
not en4rely accessible by the public, aids in reducing depression and anxiety through the restora4ve healing power of natural landscapes, and can aid in promo4ng exercise through the use of green corridors and provision of engaging public spaces. Finally, urban agriculture can produce vast quan44es of food, promo4ng healthier diets, reducing obesity, and crea4ng thousands of new jobs within cleaner, more engaging ci4es.
7. References:
• Barton, J., Preey, J., 2010. What is the best dose of nature and green exercise for improving mental health? A mul4study analysis, Environmental Science and Technology, 44, 3947–3955.
• Befort, C., Nazir, N., Perri, M., 2012, Prevalence of Obesity Among Adults From Rural and Urban Areas of the United States: Findings From NHANES (2005-‐2008), The Journal of Rural Health, 28:392–397
• Bousquet, J. ed, Khaltaev, N. ed, 2007, Global surveillance, preven4on and control of chronic respiratory diseases : a comprehensive approach, [pdf] available at <file:///Users/Andy/Documents/PhD/2nd%20year/ Food%20Reports/aesop%20'15/Well%20being/GARD%20Book%202007.pdf> [accessed 14th September 2015]
• Bruinsma, J. 2009, The Resource Outlook to 2050: By How Much do Land, Water and Crop Yields Need to Increase by 2050? [pdf] Available at <hep://www.fsnnetwork.org/resource-‐outlook-‐2050-‐how-‐much-‐do-‐ land-‐water-‐and-‐crop-‐yields-‐need-‐increase-‐2050> [accessed 24th August 2015]
• Defra (2007). The air quality strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The Sta4onery Office, London.
• Economic and Social Affairs Division of the United Na4ons , (2014), data from: World Urbaniza4on Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Urban Popula4on at Mid-‐Year by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-‐2050, [spreadsheet] Available at: <hep://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-‐ROM/> [accessed 21st August 2015]
• Economic and Social Affairs Division of the United Na4ons, (2015), data from: World Popula4on Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Total popula4on (both sexes combined) by major area, region and country, Es4mates, 1950 -‐ 2015 [spreadsheet] Available at: hep://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-‐Data/popula4on.htm [accessed 21st July 2015]
• Environmental Audit Commieee (2010) Fiph Report: Air Quality [online] available at: hep:// www.publica4ons.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmenvaud/229/22902.htm, [accessed 18th September 2015]
• Everee, T., Ishwaran, M., Ansaloni, G.P., Rubin, A., 2010, DEFRA Evidence and Analysis Series, Paper 2: Economic Growth and the Environment, available at <heps://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ uploads/aeachment_data/file/69195/pb13390-‐economic-‐growth-‐100305.pdf> [accessed 16th September 2015]
• Faculty of Health, N/D, Built Environment and Physical Ac4vity, [pdf] available at <hep://www.fph.org.uk/ uploads/briefing%20statement%20-‐%20built%20environment%20and%20physical%20ac4vity.pdf>, [accessed 15th September 2015]
• Food and Agricultural Organisa4on of the United Na4ons, (2012) [online] available at <hep://www.fao.org/ rioplus20/75189/en/> [accessed 7th August 2014]
• HARTIG, T., EVANS, G.W., JAMNER, L.D., DAVIS, D.S. AND GÄRLING, T. (2003). Tracking restora4on in natural and urban field se|ngs. Journal of Environmental Psychology 23, 109–123.
• HARTIG, T. (2007). Three steps to understanding restora4ve environments as health resources. In: C. Ward Thompson and P. Travlou (eds.) Open Space: People Space. Taylor & Francis, Abingdon, pp. 163–180. • HM Revenues and Customs, 2015, Percen4le Points from 1 to 99 for Total Income Before and Aper Tax,
[pdf] available at <heps://www.gov.uk/government/sta4s4cs/percen4le-‐points-‐from-‐1-‐to-‐99-‐for-‐total-‐ income-‐before-‐and-‐aper-‐tax>, [accessed 19th September 2015].
• Human Capital Management Ins4tute, n/d, Managing an Organiza4on’s Biggest Cost: The Workforce, [pdf] available at <hep://www.hcminst.com/files/OrgPlus_Total_Cost_Workforce_.pdf> [accessed 20th September 2015].
• Interna4onal Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, (2009), Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, Island Press, Washington
• Jenkins, A., Keeffe, G., Hall, T., 2014, Facade Farm: Solar Media4on Through Food Produc4on, Proceeding of the Eurosun 2014: Interna4onal Conference on Solar Energy and Buildings, [pdf] available at <hep:// proceedings.ises.org/paper/0031-‐Jenkins.pdf> [accessed 20th September 2015]
• Jenkins, A., Keeffe, G., Hall, T., 2015, Planning Food Produc4on into Todays Ci4es, Future of Food: Journal on Food Agriculture and Society, 3(1), 35-‐47
• KAPLAN, R. (1993). The role of nature in the context of the workplace. Landscape and Urban Planning 26, 193–201.
• Masoli, M., Fabian, D., Holt, S., Beasley, R., 2004, The global burden of asthma: execu4ve summary of the GINA Dissemina4on Commieee Report. 59:469–478.
• McCrone, P., Dhanasiri, S., Patel, A., Knapp, M., Lawton-‐Smith, S., 2008, Paying the Price: The Cost of Mental Health Care in England to 2026, Kings Fund, London
• Mendez, M.A. & Popkin, B.M. (2004). Globaliza4on, Urbaniza4on, and Nutri4onal Change in the Developing World. Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, 1(2): 220-‐241
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board, (2005), Ecosystems and Human Well-‐being: Current State and Trends, Volume 1, Island Press, Washington
• NHS Medical Directorate, 2012, COPD Commissioning Toolkit: A Resource for Commissioners, [pdf] Available at <heps://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/aeachment_data/file/212876/ chronic-‐obstruc4ve-‐pulmonary-‐disease-‐COPD-‐commissioning-‐toolkit.pdf> [accessed 16th September 2015] • Office for Na4onal Sta4s4cs, 2015, UK Labour Market: September 2015, [pdf] available at <hep:// ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-‐market-‐sta4s4cs/september-‐2015/sta4s4cal-‐bulle4n.html> [accessed 20th September 2015]
• Organisa(on for Economic Coopera(on and Development, 2012, Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inac(on, OECD Publishing, Paris
• OTTOSSON, J. AND GRAHN, P. (2008). The role of natural sePngs in crisis rehabilita(on: How does the level of crisis influence the response to experiences of nature with regard to measures of rehabilita(on? Landscape Research 33, 51–70.
• PARK, B.J., TSUNETSUGU, Y., KASETANI, T., KAGAWA, T. AND MIYAZAKI, Y. (2010). The physiological effects of Shinrin-‐yoku (taking in the forest atmosphere or forest bathing): evidence from field experiments in 24 forests across Japan. Environmental Health and Preventa(ve Medicine 15, 18–26.
• Peen, J., Schoevers, R. A., Beekman, A. T., Dekker, J. (2009), The Current Status of Urban-‐Rural Differences in Psychiatric Disorders, Acta Psychiatr Scand 2010: 121: 84–93
• Peytremann-‐Bridevaux, I., Faeh, D., Santos-‐Eggimann, B., 2007, Prevalence of overweight and obesity in rural and urban sePngs of 10 European countries, [pdf] available at <hkp://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/ download?doi=10.1.1.468.9401&rep=rep1&type=pdf>, [accessed 16th September 2015]
• Prescribing and Primary Care Team, Health and Social Care informa(on Centre (2013). Quality and Outcomes Framework Achievement, Prevalence and Excep(ons Data 2012/13, [pdf] Available at: <hkp:// www.hscic.gov.uk/catalogue/PUB12262/qual-‐outc-‐fram-‐12-‐13-‐rep.pdf> [accessed 14th September 2015] • Public Health England, 2014a, Adult Weight Data Factsheet, [pdf] Available at: <hkp://www.noo.org.uk/
securefiles/150914_1324//AdultWeight_Aug2014_v2.pdf> [accessed 14th September 2015]
• Public Health England, 2014b, Adult Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes, [pdf] available at: <hkps://www.gov.uk/ g o v e r n m e n t / u p l o a d s / s y s t e m / u p l o a d s / a k a c h m e n t _ d a t a / fi l e / 3 3 8 9 3 4 / Adult_obesity_and_type_2_diabetes_.pdf> [accessed 16th September 2015]
• ROE, J. AND ASPINALL, P. (2011). The restora(ve benefits of walking in urban and rural sePngs in adults with good and poor mental health. Health and Place 17, 103–113.
• Steel, C., (2013) Hungry City: How Food Shapes our lives, Vintage, London
• The Royal Society, (2009), Reaping the benefits: science and the sustainable intensifica(on of global agriculture [pdf] Available at <hkps://royalsociety.org/policy/publica(ons/2009/reaping-‐benefits/> [accessed 21st August 2015]
• Tesco, 2015, Annual Report and Annual Report and Financial Statements 2015, [pdf] available at <hkp:// www.tescoplc.com/files/pdf/reports/ar15/download_annual_report.pdf> [accessed 20th September 2015] • Van de Poel, E., O’Donnell, O. & Van Doorslaer, E. (2009). Urbaniza(on and the spread of diseases of
affluence in China. Economics and Human Biology, 7(2):200-‐16.
• ULRICH, R.S. (1993). Biophilia, biophobia, and natural landscapes. In: S. R. Kellert and E. O. Wilson (eds.) The Biophilia Hypothesis. Island Press, Washington D.C., pp. 73–137.
• Wild, S., Roglic, G., Green, A., Sicree, R., & King, H. (2004). Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Es(mates for the Year 2000 and Projec(ons for 2030. Diabetes Care, 27(5), 1047–1053.
• World Health Organisa(on, 2002, World health report 2002, World Health Organiza(on, Geneva
• World Health Organisa(on, 2003, Health Aspects of Air Pollu(on with Par(culate Maker, Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide, [pdf] available at: <hkp://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/112199/ E79097.pdf> [accessed 15th September]
• World Health Organisa(on, 2013, Global ac(on plan for the preven(on and control of NCDs 2013-‐2020, [pdf] available at: <hkp://www.who.int/en(ty/nmh/publica(ons/ncd-‐ac(on-‐plan/en/index.html> [accessed 14th September 2015]
