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(1)

Session 119PD: Designing a Retirement Program: A Sponsor Perspective

10/16/2018

2:00-3:15 p.m.

SOA Antitrust Compliance Guidelines

SOA Presentation Disclaimer

(2)

PRESENTERS:

BILL BRANCH, ASA, EA

ARTHUR RAINS-MCNALLY, FSA, EA

Retirement Plan Designs from a Plan

Sponsor’s Perspective

Session 119

October 16, 2018

(3)

SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES

Antitrust Compliance Guidelines

Active participation in the Society of Actuaries is an important aspect of membership. While the positive contributions of professional societies and associations are

well-recognized and encouraged, association activities are vulnerable to close antitrust scrutiny. By their very nature, associations bring together industry competitors

and other market participants.

The United States antitrust laws aim to protect consumers by preserving the free economy and prohibiting anti-competitive business practices; they promote

competition. There are both state and federal antitrust laws, although state antitrust laws closely follow federal law. The Sherman Act, is the primary U.S. antitrust law

pertaining to association activities. The Sherman Act prohibits every contract, combination or conspiracy that places an unreasonable restraint on trade. There are,

however, some activities that are illegal under all circumstances, such as price fixing, market allocation and collusive bidding.

There is no safe harbor under the antitrust law for professional association activities. Therefore, association meeting participants should refrain from discussing any

activity that could potentially be construed as having an anti-competitive effect. Discussions relating to product or service pricing, market allocations, membership

restrictions, product standardization or other conditions on trade could arguably be perceived as a restraint on trade and may expose the SOA and its members to

antitrust enforcement procedures.

While participating in all SOA in person meetings, webinars, teleconferences or side discussions, you should avoid discussing competitively sensitive information with

competitors and follow these guidelines:

Do not discuss prices for services or products or anything else that might affect prices

Do not discuss what you or other entities plan to do in a particular geographic or product markets or with particular customers.

Do not speak on behalf of the SOA or any of its committees unless specifically authorized to do so.

Do leave a meeting where any anticompetitive pricing or market allocation discussion occurs.

Do alert SOA staff and/or legal counsel to any concerning discussions

Do consult with legal counsel before raising any matter or making a statement that may involve competitively sensitive information.

Adherence to these guidelines involves not only avoidance of antitrust violations, but avoidance of behavior which might be so construed. These guidelines only

provide an overview of prohibited activities. SOA legal counsel reviews meeting agenda and materials as deemed appropriate and any discussion that departs from the

formal agenda should be scrutinized carefully. Antitrust compliance is everyone’s responsibility; however, please seek legal counsel if you have any questions or

concerns.

(4)

Presentation Disclaimer

Presentations are intended for educational purposes only and do not replace

independent professional judgment. Statements of fact and opinions expressed are

those of the participants individually and, unless expressly stated to the contrary,

are not the opinion or position of the Society of Actuaries, its cosponsors or its

committees. The Society of Actuaries does not endorse or approve, and assumes no

responsibility for, the content, accuracy or completeness of the information

presented. Attendees should note that the sessions are audio-recorded and may be

published in various media, including print, audio and video formats without further

notice.

(5)
(6)

Retirement plans are not a new concept

5

(7)

The Transition to Modern Retirement

For much of our national history, families were the

“retirement plan.” But then, after World War II . . .

(8)

Here comes ERISA . . .

Company sponsored retirement plans—but many

receive no benefits

7

“History of Retirement Plans and Savings,” TIAA, March 27, 2017

ERISA—Enacted in 1974;

included formation of PBGC

1963—Studebaker terminated

pension plan; more than 4,000

auto workers in South Bend,

Indiana, lost some or all

(9)

1978 – The Revenue Act of 1978

1983 – The Social Security Amendments of 1983

(NRA from 65 to 67)

1992 – The 404(c) Regulation

2006 – The Pension Protection Act of 2006

Post World War II Developments

(10)

Possibility of Survival if Age 65 Today

9

Source: Cannex Financial Exchange Using the Society for Actuaries RP 2014 Mortality Table with MP 2014 Projection

Scale for 2015. The tables reflect the mortality experience of U.S. pension plan participants.

(11)

The Aging of America

(12)

Why did sponsors put retirement plans in

place at all?

(13)

Support of workforce strategy

Attraction

Retention

Renewal

Promotion

Financial ability to retire

(14)
(15)

Headline: “The Champions of the 401(k)

Lament the Revolution They Started”,

Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2017

“Many early backers of the 401(k) now say they have regrets

about how their creation turned out... Some say it wasn’t

designed to be a primary retirement tool …”

(16)

Headline: “Corporate pension

contributions reach record-level in 2017,

funding status improves to 86.0%”, PR

Newswire, Milliman analysis, April 19,

2018

“Seventeen employers contributed $1 billion-plus to pensions in

2017.”

(17)

Headline: “As Many as 114

Multiemployer Pension Plans Expected

to Fail Within 20 Years”, PlanSponsor,

August 2017

(18)

Headline: “Teamsters Pension Fund

Warns 400,000 [people] of Cuts”, New

York Times, October 6, 2015

(19)

Real World Example: The Evolution of

Retirement Plans in the Aerospace and

Defense Industry

(20)

19

19

Specific characteristics of A&D Industry

Requires highly skilled workforce – important to retain

professional and manufacturing labor

High labor replacement costs

Cyclical industry – slow times requires small workforce,

want to ease transition in and out of workforce during

booms and contractions

Competition for skills among industry competitors and in

other industries

Retirement plans have historically been a valuable tool for employers to

attract and retain employees and manage workforce during

(21)

Target Industry Peer Group Benchmark Data

20

Company New EntrantsClosure to Benefit ReductionPartial Freeze/ CompleteFreeze TerminationPlan 3M

(1/1/2009)

(Reduced benefits for hires after 1/1/2001)

Boeing

(1/1/2009)

(Cash Balance formula effective 1/1/1999)

(12/31/2015)

Caterpillar

(12/1/2010)

(Reduced benefits for hires after 1/1/2003; frozen for many

participants 12/31/2010)

(12/31/2019)

Emerson Electric

(1/1/2016)

(Frozen for some participants 9/30/2016)

General Dynamics

(1/1/2007)

(Partial FAE freeze 12/31/2010; Complete freeze for Corp

HQ employees 12/31/2013)

Honeywell

(1/1/2013)

(Reduced benefits for hires after 1/1/2009; FAE freeze for

heritage formulas 12/31/2015)

Johnson Controls

(1/1/2006)

(12/31/2014)

L-3

(1/1/2007)

(12/31/2018)

Lockheed Martin

(1/1/2006)

(FAE frozen 12/31/2015)

(12/31/2019)

Northrop Grumman

(7/1/2008)

(Cash Balance 7/1/20013 with 5-year “better of” benefit;

FAE freeze 12/31/2014)

Raytheon

(1/1/2007)

Rockwell Collins

(10/1/2006)

(Reduced benefits for hires after 1/1/1993)

(9/30/2006)

Textron

(1/1/2010)

(Reduced benefits for hires after 1/1/2007)

United Technologies

(1/1/2010)

(Reduced benefits for hires after 7/1/2002; Cash Balance

(22)

Primary Peer Group Qualified Plan Provisions

21

Company

Qualified Retirement Plan

Closed

Frozen

Boeing

Hired before 1/1/2009: Prior Plan FAE benefits as of 12/31/1998 (with pay increases) + prospective Cash

Balance benefit (3% to 11% based on age). Benefits completely frozen as of 12/31/2015.

Hired on or after 1/1/2009: DC only.

Yes

12/31/2015

General Dynamics

Hired before 1/1/2007: FAE5 (1.33% for service prior to 1/1/2007 + 1% thereafter); FAE5 for service prior to

1/1/2007 frozen as of 12/31/2010, but FAE5 for service after 1/1/2007 continues to grow. Corporate

Headquarters employees completely frozen as of 12/31/2013.

Hired on or after 1/1/2007: DC only.

Yes

Partially

12/31/2013

(Corp HQ

Employees only)

Lockheed Martin

Hired before 1/1/2006: FAE3 (1.25% plus 0.25% in excess of Covered Compensation; 1.5% for service over 35

years) x Service. FAE3 frozen on 12/31/2015 and service will be frozen on 12/31/2019.

Hired on or after 1/1/2006: DC only.

Yes

Will Be 12/31/2019

Northrop Grumman

Hired before 7/1/2008: Heritage Plan through 7/1/2003 transitioning to Cash Balance by 7/1/2008 on a 5-year

“better of” basis. FAE for Heritage benefits frozen as of 12/31/2014.

Hired on or after 7/1/2008: DC only.

Yes

No

Raytheon

Hired before 1/1/2007: FAE5 (1.8% for first 20 YOS + 1.2% thereafter, less same percentage split of Social

Security).

Hired on or after 1/1/2007: DC only.

(23)

22

22

Example of Alternatives Considered

Pension plan liabilities became increasingly large over the last

50 years

Populations matured; lifespans increased; interest rates (and

underlying inflation) decreased substantially

Workforce size remained constant or declined

Pension liabilities became larger than business capitalization in many

cases. Some analysts noted that a few of the A&D companies were

becoming insurance companies with an aerospace/defense sideline

Companies wanted to ease out of DB liabilities but maintain

the attraction/retention/workforce management advantages

of a retirement plan

(24)

De-Risking Approaches

23

• Lump sum offers to active

participants on termination

• Bulk lump sum offers to deferred

vested employees

• Bulk lump sum offers to retirees

(within restrictions)

• Increase funding

• Implement liability-driven

investment (LDI) strategy

• Immunization or

duration-matching strategies

• Liability settlement

through targeted

purchase of annuities

• Terminate the plan

• Close plan to new entrants

• Freeze any Final Average Pay

components

• Introduce prospective Cash

Balance formula

• Freeze/Reduce future benefit

accruals

Plan Design

Risk

Transfer to

Insurance

Company

Risk

Transfer to

Participants

Funding &

Investment

Policy

(25)

24

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

20

52

20

54

20

56

20

58

20

60

20

62

20

64

20

66

20

68

20

70

20

72

20

74

20

76

20

78

20

80

20

82

20

84

20

86

20

88

20

90

20

92

20

94

20

96

Future Accruals: Additional projected payments to be

earned in the future for active plan participants.

Active Accrued Benefits: Payments to active plan

participants that have already been earned.

Vested Terminated Benefits: Payments to terminated

participants not currently receiving benefits.

Retiree Benefits: Payments to participants currently

receiving benefits.

(26)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

20

52

20

54

20

56

20

58

20

60

20

62

20

64

20

66

20

68

20

70

20

72

20

74

20

76

20

78

20

80

20

82

20

84

20

86

20

88

20

90

20

92

20

94

20

96

25

If assets return 5.12% each year, no future

contributions would be necessary to fund projected

benefit payments. However, contributions may still

be required due to minimum funding requirements

and volatility associated with investment returns.

Projected Benefit Payments –

Matching IRR

Benefit Payments from future contributions.

Benefit payments from earnings on current assets.

(27)

Pension Design Alternatives

26

Alternative Advantages Disadvantages Notes/Comments

1. Reduce future Cash Balance

contribution crediting rates • Relatively easy to implement and offers multiple flexible alternatives for prospective change.

• Current plan has some room to lower credits and still maintain a competitive level of benefits.

• Approach was used as recently as July 1, 2008, leading to questions of why again?

• Participants with a low contribution crediting rate may prefer enhanced savings.

Contribution credits currently range from 3.5% to 9.0% of pay based on points (age + service), with an additional 4.0% for pay above the Social Security Wage Base.

2. Reduce future Cash Balance interest

crediting rate • Relatively easy to implement. Will not significantly reduce benefits for longer-service employees.

• Current interest crediting rate is already considered low by most investment standards.

• Participants may prefer enhanced savings so they can invest their accounts more aggressively.

Cash Balance interest crediting rate currently tied to 30-Year Treasury’s; which are already at historically low levels.

3. Reduce early retirement subsidies • No effect on those that retire on or after age 65.

• May discourage some unwanted early retirements.

• Very complex administratively as any reduction can only apply to future benefit accruals (current benefits must be grandfathered). • May discourage some wanted early

retirements.

Substantial early retirement subsidies generally apply to those hired before July 1, 2003; these subsidies apply to both the FAE and cash balance portions of the total retirement benefit.

4. Eliminate pay updates to FAE

portion of benefits • Relatively easy to implement. • Common approach for many other

companies when converting from FAE to cash balance structure.

• Larger reductions in projected benefits for those with longer service nearing retirement age. • Tends to impact higher performers

more than lower performers.

Change would affect less than half of the current workforce, but amounts could be large for certain individuals.

5. Exclude certain employees from

future participation in the plan • Somewhat easy to administer as it does not involve a change in the plan formula, but affected participants must be identified.

• Potential non-discrimination testing issues.

• Complexities in determining who is in and who is out of the plan.

Is generally the approach taken by some business segments to reduce costs and volatility.

6. Complete plan freeze • Easy to implement.

• Approach taken by some direct competitors.

• Involves multiple segment closings. • Would need to develop alternative arrangements to offer a competitive benefits structure.

Most of the newer defense/aerospace competitors do not (and never have) offered DB benefits.

(28)

FAS Cost Projections ($ in Millions)

27

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Current Plan $239 $350 $359 $335 $286 $234 Alternative I 239 255 258 231 179 134 Alternative II 239 241 251 239 200 153 Alternative III 239 297 305 286 240 189

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

FAS Projections

(29)

Cash Cost Projections ($ in Millions)

28

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Current Plan $559 $125 $397 $781 $850 $670 Alternative I 559 125 397 781 734 519 Alternative II 559 99 358 577 761 585 Alternative III 559 110 373 672 798 604

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Cash Projections

(30)

Alternative Design Benefit Impacts

29

Years of Service

Age 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 Over 34 Total

Under 25 7 46% → 40% 13 43% → 40% 20 25 to 29 30 40% → 38% 42% → 39%465 47% → 41%21 516 30 to 34 13 34% → 33% 1297 41% → 38% 439 46% → 40% 16 49% → 41% 1,765 35 to 39 11 31% → 30% 36% → 33%793 43% → 37%813 48% → 40%243 45% → 38%8 1,868 40 to 44 10 27% → 26% 721 32% → 29% 745 38% → 33% 44% → 37%474 50% → 40%242 56% → 44%33 2,225 45 to 49 4 19% → 18% 927 27% → 25% 797 33% → 29% 635 39% → 33% 980 47% → 39% 915 51% → 42% 79 54% → 45% 4,337 50 to 54 3 17% → 17% 22% → 21%983 28% → 25%884 34% → 30%759 43% → 37%1185 48% → 41%2121 52% → 45%1022 45% → 40%74 7,031 55 to 59 3 13% → 13% 676 17% → 16% 653 22% → 21% 600 29% → 27% 727 37% → 34% 1504 42% → 39% 1208 48% → 44% 503 49% → 45% 5,874 60 to 64 1 8% → 8% 14% → 14%139 19% → 18%151 25% → 24%121 34% → 33%163 39% → 38%299 44% → 43%255 46% → 44%172 1,301 Over 65 0 Total Count 82 6,014 4,503 2,848 3,305 4,872 2,564 749 24,937 Benefit Reduction % # of employees Assumptions in calculating age 65 accrued benefits:

20% - 25% 33 Salary Scale

15% - 20% 2,949 Age Rate

10% - 15% 8,626 < 30 6.00% Cash balance interest crediting rate: 4.50%

5 - 10% 11,308 30 - 40 5.00% >0% - 5% 2,021 40 - 50 4.00% No Change 0 50 - 60 3.00% 60 + 2.50% Cell Legend

Number of employees affected

Replacement ratio before alternative → Replacement ratio after alternative

(31)

Alternative Design Benefit Impacts

30

Alternative II

Years of Service

Age 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 Over 34 Total

Under 25 261 41% → 33% 52 41% → 33% 313 25 to 29 1344 37% → 30% 1556 39% → 32% 26 46% → 39% 2,926 30 to 34 963 33% → 27% 3345 38% → 32% 798 43% → 36% 23 46% → 39% 5,129 35 to 39 636 29% → 23% 33% → 28%2092 40% → 34%1526 44% → 39%354 41% → 36%13 4,621 40 to 44 568 24% → 20% 2086 29% → 24% 1500 35% → 30% 790 40% → 35% 350 45% → 40% 41 51% → 46% 5,335 45 to 49 638 18% → 15% 24% → 20%2413 30% → 26%1497 35% → 31%1067 42% → 38%1449 46% → 42%1280 49% → 45%98 8,442 50 to 54 571 14% → 12% 2533 19% → 17% 1688 25% → 22% 1202 30% → 28% 1645 38% → 35% 3135 43% → 40% 1510 46% → 43% 88 43% → 40% 12,372 55 to 59 320 9% → 8% 1738 15% → 13% 1299 20% → 19% 978 25% → 23% 1060 32% → 31% 2147 37% → 36% 1950 42% → 40% 802 42% → 40% 10,294 60 to 64 231 5% → 5% 1045 10% → 9% 825 16% → 15% 589 19% → 19% 688 26% → 26% 1119 32% → 32% 1018 35% → 34% 943 37% → 36% 6,458 Over 65 103 6% → 6% 572 11% → 11% 490 17% → 17% 321 20% → 20% 388 25% → 25% 555 29% → 29% 426 31% → 31% 835 35% → 35% 3,690 Total Count 5,635 17,432 9,649 5,324 5,593 8,277 5,002 2,668 59,580 Benefit Reduction % # of employees Assumptions in calculating age 65 accrued benefits:

20% - 25% 0 Salary Scale

15% - 20% 14,936 Age Rate

10% - 15% 15,812 < 30 6.00% Cash balance interest crediting rate 4.50%

5 - 10% 19,158 30 - 40 5.00% >0% - 5% 5,984 40 - 50 4.00% No Change 3,690 50 - 60 3.00% 60 + 2.50% Cell Legend

Number of employees affected

(32)

Alternative Design Benefit Impacts

31

Years of Service

Age 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 Over 34 Total

Under 25 3 40% → 39% 3 25 to 29 513 38% → 36% 790 40% → 38% 7 47% → 45% 1,310 30 to 34 422 35% → 32% 1967 39% → 37% 551 44% → 41% 12 48% → 46% 2,952 35 to 39 283 30% → 28% 1118 35% → 32% 968 42% → 39% 242 46% → 42% 5 40% → 39% 2,616 40 to 44 232 25% → 23% 1049 30% → 28% 819 36% → 34% 534 41% → 38% 174 46% → 43% 13 58% → 56% 2,821 45 to 49 221 20% → 18% 1249 25% → 23% 823 31% → 29% 658 36% → 34% 919 43% → 41% 752 47% → 45% 46 54% → 52% 4,668 50 to 54 227 15% → 14% 1305 21% → 19% 877 26% → 25% 727 31% → 30% 1014 39% → 38% 2135 44% → 42% 927 48% → 46% 43 44% → 43% 7,255 55 to 59 131 10% → 9% 16% → 15%885 21% → 20%652 27% → 26%534 33% → 32%618 39% → 38%1373 43% → 42%1258 44% → 44%429 5,880 60 to 64 106 6% → 5% 519 11% → 10% 400 17% → 16% 313 20% → 20% 335 27% → 27% 643 33% → 33% 619 36% → 36% 570 39% → 38% 3,505 Over 65 0 Total Count 2,138 8,882 5,097 3,020 3,065 4,916 2,850 1,042 31,010 Benefit Reduction % # of employees Assumptions in calculating age 65 accrued benefits:

20% - 25% 0 Salary Scale

15% - 20% 0 Age Rate

10% - 15% 0 < 30 6.00% Cash balance interest crediting rate 4.50%

5 - 10% 17,239 30 - 40 5.00% >0% - 5% 13,771 40 - 50 4.00% No Change 0 50 - 60 3.00% 60 + 2.50% Cell Legend

Number of employees affected

Replacement ratio before alternative → Replacement ratio after alternative

(33)

Conclusion

There is no perfect retirement plan

Shifting investment and longevity risk to employees

through a traditional 401(k) improves financial volatility,

but dampens effectiveness of retirement as a tool for

retention and workforce management

(34)

Plan design from the viewpoint of

multiemployer plan sponsors

(35)

Multiemployer plans

Have remained largely DB, though many have DC as supplement

Plans funding

Liability calculated based on long term asset return assumption, most between

7.0% and 7.5%

Assets invested in balanced portfolios, most hold 60-70% stocks

System is struggling since global financial crisis

Some plans healthy

Some heading to insolvency (running out of money)

Plans sponsored jointly by employers and labor unions

(36)

Employer perspectives

For smaller employers, allows access to benefits plans at

economies of scale

Provides access to union workforce

Well trained workers

Workforce flexibility, can employ just the number of people

needed

(37)

Employer perspectives

Contributions made based on hours worked

At negotiated level, based on collective bargaining agreement

Contribution stability very important in many industries

Volatile of contribution requirements substantial since global

financial crisis

Underfunding exposes employers to withdrawal liability

Makes exit less feasible, more costly

May reduce credit-worthiness or business sales price

(38)

Union perspectives

Want to be able to attract and retain top workers

Want to be able to retain current employers

Committed to retirement plans that

Provide retirement benefit as lifelong income

Provide solid benefits for generations to come

Remain strong without intergenerational risk transfer

Committed to retirement plans that

(39)

Current system is vulnerable

The widespread plan underfunding creates problems for

both sponsoring entities

Some plans headed toward insolvency

Some plans have switched to DC

Some plans are remaining in traditional DB plans

With goal to build reserves in order to withstand downturns

Think current funding problems are only due poor decade of returns

Some plans are exploring/transitioning to alternative designs

(40)

Multiemployer plans, zone status v. maturity

39

The 2000s were

more difficult for

more mature

plans.

Traditional plans

are vulnerable to

effects of

maturity.

Source: Zone statuses and cash flows from most

recent IRS Form 5500 filings and funded percentages

from Spring 2017 Milliman Pension Funding Study

(41)

Mature plan “management” (actual plan)

40

This is an extreme intergenerational risk transfer

Doesn’t include loss of adjustable benefits

Year

Hourly Contrib

Worked

Hours

Accrual

Rate

Contrib

Annual

Earned Per Yr

Mo. Benefit

2000

$1.00

1,800

9.5%

$1,800

$171

2010

$1.00 inside the multiplier,

$1.50 outside the multiplier

1,800

1.0%

$4,500

$18

Change

Increased

150%

Decreased

90%

Change

9.5 times

(42)

Maturity life cycle

Maturity is

inevitable.

We need plan

designs that are

indifferent to

maturity.

Assumptions

New plan starts in year 0

No legacy liability

Open group, average age 40

Asset returns = asset return assumption

Asset returns/assumption

7.00%

Contribution inflation

3.00%

-3.74%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A

nnual

c

as

hf

low

as

a per

c

ent

of

as

s

et

s

Plan Year

(43)

Why alternative design?

Alternative design applicable to corporate, public, and

multiemployer plans

Traditional plans become “difficult to maintain” (funding

variability causes large contribution requirements) as they

mature. Mature plans:

Are often large compared to their sponsoring entity

Typically have large negative cashflows

Have relatively few actives upon which to make contributions

Alternative design goals: retain lifelong income but without

contribution volatility

(44)

Is maturity a problem?

Maturity is only a problem

If a plan is underfunded

Or can become underfunded

Plans become mature

That is the point of a pension plan

To pay benefits when people retire

Is avoiding it reasonable?

(45)

2018 Enrolled Actuaries Meeting

44

The problem is a system that is

BOTH vulnerable to maturity

(46)

2018 Enrolled Actuaries Meeting

45

The problem is being less than

100% funded

(47)

2018 Enrolled Actuaries Meeting

46

(48)

We need plans that are indifferent to maturity

We need plans that remain 100% funded

Alternative design goals: retain lifelong income but w/o contribution

volatility—and remain 100% funded in all market conditions

Basic variable annuity plan (basic VAPP) does this

But at the expense of routine retiree benefit declines

Most alternative designs in multiemployer sector are

Modifications on variable annuity plan

(49)

Basic VAPP

Basic variable annuity pension plan (VAPP) from 1953 Revenue Ruling

Initial accruals are smaller than in traditional plan (for same cost)

Liabilities are calculated at a hurdle rate (usually between 4% and 5%)

For same amount of contribution accruals are smaller than if calculated at 7%

Benefits change each year by difference between actual asset return and the

hurdle rate

Benefits are expected to grow over time

Stays funded in all market conditions

Requires that normal cost plus expenses be funded each year

Benefits (and therefore liabilities) adjust to match the assets

(50)

Traditional DB v. basic VAPP

Basic VAPP benefit

is volatile

Basic VAPP provides

inflation protection

Retirement at 30

years of service,

equal cost plans

Retired

(51)

Risk balance: traditional DB plan

Current employers and current actives bear most of the risks

EMPLOYERS

AND ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS

PARTICIPANTS

Longevity

risk

Investment

risk

Inflation

risk

Interest

rate risk

(52)

Risk balance: DC plan

Participants bear all the risk

EMPLOYERS

PARTICIPANTS

Investment

risk

Inflation

risk

Longevity

risk

Interest

rate risk

(53)

Risk balance: sought by VAPP modifications

EMPLOYERS

AND ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS

PARTICIPANTS

Longevity

risk

Investment

risk

Inflation risk

Longevity risk is predictable and manageable when grouped

Investment risk is shared equitably across all participants, not just actives

Inflation protection possible, depending on modifications

(54)

Modifications to the VAPP

Modifications designed to smooth out retiree benefits

2014 regulations provide a number of options

All modifications sacrifice benefit level for downside

protection

The basic VAPP is expected to provide larger benefits than ANY

modified VAPP for the same level of contributions

Be aware that some modifications reintroduce risks the

basic VAPP eliminated

(55)

Modifications to the VAPP

Invest conservatively to limit volatility

Locking in benefits in retirement

Purchasing annuities

Providing a floor benefit

(56)

Traditional DB v. basic VAPP

Basic VAPP benefit

is volatile

Basic VAPP provides

inflation protection

Retirement at 30

years of service,

equal cost plans

Retired

(57)

Modifications to the VAPP

Basic VAPP:

balanced vs.

conservative

portfolio

Conservative

portfolio: benefit

less volatile, but

much smaller

Retirement at 30

years of service,

equal cost plans

Investing conservatively

Retired

(58)

Modifications to the VAPP

Locking benefits in

at retirement vs.

basic VAPP

Invested

conservatively in

order to fund lock-in

Retirement date has

permanent impact

on benefit

Retirement at 30

years of service,

equal cost plans

Retired

Active

(59)

Modifications to the VAPP

VAPP with floor vs.

basic VAPP

Invested

conservatively to

minimize volatility

as floor has cost

Retirement at 30

years of service,

equal cost plans

Retired

Active

(60)

Modifications to the VAPP

SIP vs. basic VAPP

Maintains balanced

portfolio

Uses years of

outperformance to

prevent benefit

declines in poor

return years

Retirement at 30

years of service,

equal cost plans

Retired

Active

(61)

The future

People need secure retirement, whether they work in

the public, corporate or multiemployer sectors

Lifelong retirement income at a reasonable price should

be a priority for our profession

(62)

DC Designs and the Plan Sponsor

Perspective

(63)

How are DC plans designed?

Motivators of DC Design

Replacement plan to offset loss of DB accruals

Safe harbor/non-discriminatory design

Benchmarked to be middle of the road

Stretch match to suit philosophical stylings of management

Avoid complexities that existed under DB plans

Cost containment

Little diligence paid historically towards a design that is geared

towards retirement readiness

Effective match

Limit early access to funds

(64)

What does an employer want from a

retirement plan?

Attraction and retention of associates

Orderly attrition of employees

Manageable costs

Simple administration

Low compliance efforts

(65)

Issues under the DC regime

No straightforward mechanisms to facilitate exit

No extended vesting or early retirement features to

encourage people to stay

Associates relying on STD/LTD as bridge to retirement

Leakage

Loans and hardship withdrawals

People generally not proactive with respect to

retirement savings

Dearth of payout options and advice

Employers are

having to turn

themselves into

financial

educators to

address these

concerns.

(66)

Effective (DC) Design

Design ER contributions with an eye toward retirement readiness

Automatic enrollment and automatic increases

Coordinate disability programs with DC plan

Robust distribution options

Mitigate leakage

Inside vs. outside the plan

Risk pooling

Investment management

Efficiency of Retirement Money: Pooling assets and risks makes attaining

retirement goals easier in the long run.

(67)

Retirement Income Projections

The research indicates that a one-year increase in

average retirement age results in:

66

An incremental cost of over $50,000 for an

individual whose retirement is delayed.

2

This

represents the cost differential between the retiring

employee and a newly hired employee.

“Why Employers Should Care About the Cost of Delayed Retirements,” 2017 Prudential

Financial Inc.

2

Represents the difference between the workforce costs of a retiree vs. an entry-level employee. It is assumed

that when an employee retires, an advancement opportunity is created such that all employees progress through

the workforce (i.e., “move up a notch”), and an entry-level employee is hired.

(68)

Efficiency of Retirement Money

It is significantly more cost effective for a person to insure

longevity risk through risk pooling (whether through

purchasing an annuity or other lifetime income guarantee or

electing a lifetime income option in a pension plan) than to

bear that risk alone.

67

American Academy of Actuaries, Letter to Employee Benefit Security Administration (EBSA) of the U.S. Department of Labor,

May 3, 2010.

(69)

Concluding observations- where do plan

sponsors go from here?

(70)

69

Long time sponsors of traditional DB plans will likely

continue to freeze and terminate those plans and

usually replace with a DC

Most current DCs shift investment and longevity risk

(71)

70

Sponsors who require a stable, skilled workforce will likely

realize over the next decade that retirement plans

Will remain an important tool for attraction/retention/workforce

management

Current 401(k)s shift too much risk and are not efficient enough to

be fully effective

Need to focus on developing alternatives that mitigate the

employee risks, improve efficiency, and protect the plan

sponsor from extreme volatility

(72)
(73)

References

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