I would like to thank everyone who has helped me to, finally get to the end of the beginning of my trading.



I would like to thank everyone who has helped me to ,“finally get to the end of

the beginning of my trading”.



Davin Clark, Chris Shea

•

Toni Turner-short-term trading in the new stock market.

John Carter-mastering the trade.

•

John l person-candlestick & pivot point trading triggers

ATAA conferences

•

Martin & all the other ATAA members

•

Charles Browne’s great Brisbane Atta conference talk & all other talks about

human thinking & theory of mind.(if you haven't seen it get a copy)

•

Zac Zacharia who started my intra-day trading journey(the best live trader I

have watched in person) & who’s work I use. go to one of his night sessions.

•

Lance Beggs -

www.yourtradingcoach.com

the best $300 I have ever spent

& the one blog, website, trading course that changed the way I look at

markets.

•

Look at his website & blog –it’s worth the cost of the course for trading plan by

it self.(He also let me use his stuff for my presentation without any drama’s,

thank you)

•I trade 3 systems

•1) a weekly position trading wealth building

Weinstein/Wyckoff system with my own checks. This is

my most important system as most of my money is put to

use this way.

•2) a daily pattern based system used to trade swings in

bigger moves. I now pay less attention to this as my index

trading is taking a lot of time as I try to perfect it.

•3) day trading system which is also acting as a method to

teach me about price structure . I am finding markets



Know who you are

• Must take the time to find out who you are, maybe a mechanical or a discretionary rule

based trader.

• How much time you have to trade. In my opinion intraday swing trading is like a part time job &

needs to be treated as such.

• Need patience to watch, learn & have confidence in yourself & strategy(testing is very hard with

discretionary trading)



Why are you trading intra-day?

• By far the hardest form of trading(due to trading psychology-I know what you are thinking it is a

load of bull s… but it is important)

• Longer term trading for growth, to me is much more important than short term or intraday

trading.

• Picking important turning points longer term will make more money for the average trader or

investor than day trading.

• I started to learn intra-day in 2010 after being killed in the sideways moving Aussie markets. • After thinking about it, and losing a lot of money, I stated to think that true market



What?

• I use Ig markets cfd’s against market indexes, gold, oil ,Aussie 200 cash & look at

euro/used & $au/$used

• Started with the dax mainly, but had to move to the euro stoxx50 after losing a lot

of money due to the nature of the market & struggling with my stop losses.

• I needed to find what I wanted from these markets - know what your plan is before

you start ,otherwise it will frustrate - only income for me & are happy with 10/20 points

• Need to know when to trade & when not to trade. • Tired , sick ,angry & when time could be better spent • When do you start with full positions-leave sim account.

•

- a very big question



What are markets?-

•

Most people see markets simply as

price movement

& look for

indicator or pattern set ups, to me this is only a small part of

intra-day trading.

•

After trading like this for a long time, giving away a lot of

money & really taking a confidence hit, I

started to look at what

really moves markets.

•

I would look at stochastics , moving averages & breakouts for

example & trade them out of context . In my opinion most of the

books I had read were based on bull market breakouts &

simply did not work in bear markets & intraday trading.

•

I needed to know why I could not get a mechanical system to

work when everyone had told me this was the only way to go.

So what are markets & what really moves

them??

•

.

To me markets are traders making decisions & the

emotions that they are feeling. Its about people not

price.

•

Traders make decisions , which lead to order flow , which in turn leads

to price movement.

• what makes you think that you are going to be one of the 10% that makes money

.

•

What is your edge in the market

?

•

You must be able to answer this question straight away!!!

•

If you can’t answer this then any intra-day or forex

My edge is knowing on a chart where other traders will have to make

decisions

If you can see on a chart fear , greed(hope) , regret & where other traders will have to make decisions - you can have an edge.

I'm trying to buy at areas where others will buy after me & to sell at areas where others will sell after me.

I'm looking for areas where I have been caught before & will trade against trapped traders.

This together with good trade management , patience & trust in your strategy should lead you to make a profit.

• One thing about spending 12 months feeling pain & frustration & disgust at losing thousands of

dollars is that you learn or its over quick.

•

You need to view all price movement from the perspective of other

traders & how price movement influences their decision making

urgency. E.g.- When a position has moved against them & they’re in drawdown, at some point they’re going to reach maximum stress & finally accept they’re wrong & exit their position.- More simply at areas where traders are coming to accept they’re wrong.

• Regret at missing a rally & having an impulse to just jump on before it moves further without you

- the fear of missing out can cause decisions in which we can profit.

• Find the areas on a chart where other traders will make trading decisions , with good trade

management & patience then you’ve found an edge.

• These areas are support & resistance on higher timeframes, swing highs & lows , changes in

trends , pivot points, news events(non-farm pay rolls),extended pullbacks, complex pullbacks(abc moves) ,areas in the past where you have felt pain, & not letting changes in trends prove

themselves before we trade.

1)

DEFINE STRUCTURE

2)

DEFINE TREND

3)

IDENTIFY STRENGH & WEAKNESS

4)

IDENTIFY FUTURE TREND DIRECTION

5)

VISUALISE FUTURE PRICE ACTION

6)

AREAS OF TRADE OPPORTUNITY

• I will use a higher timeframe 30min to 4 hour

• I will use a trading timeframe 3/5min depending on traded markets.

• I will use a lower timeframe 1min/25 tick chart depending on markets traded.

1) Define structure

– a framework in which our trading timeframe will

move. Framed by 30min , 1 & 4 hour support & resistance with major

attention paid to 30min structure.

2) Define trend

–

used

to asses trend direction - up , down or sideways.

Used to identify swing highs & swing lows on 5 or 3 min chart.

Used to see strength & weakness in extensions & pullbacks.

3) Strength & Weakness

– compare current price swings with previous

price swings in the same direction. We are trying to buy strength & fade

weakness.

Compare the momentum of the current price swing with the one in the opposite direction. Seeing if current price is accelerating or decelerating , compare extensions & projection of price

swings. Take note of every candle when it is finished & put into context with structure & our indicators that we use on the trading timeframe. (3/5 min time frame).

4)

Identify future trend direction

-

within support/resistance frame work.

•Has 6 price principles – most of my trading is done between S/R lines .we

use these to decide what set up to use.

• First principle

–

we expect an

UP OR DOWN TREND

to continue in its current

state until the next s/r barrier , unless displaying evidence of weakness within the trend.

• Second principle

-

when an

UP OR DOWN TREND

shows evidence of

weakness , we expect a higher likelihood of a complex correction rather than a reversal,

until such time as the market shows both price acceptance & strength in the new trend

direction. --- to me one of the hardest things to get used to , but one of the main things

that stopped me losing so much money. (suspect it is like an Elliot wave ABC pattern)

ALWAYS trust the trend to continue , until it shows clear evidence of weakening.

• Third principle

– a

SIDEWAYS

trend within the framework is expected to continue in

its current state , unless displaying evidence of strength towards a range boundary.

These are kind of the rules i stick to.

• Fourth principle

– when a

SIDEWAYS TREND

shows evidence of

strength towards a range boundary , we expect a break of the boundary.

we observe the behaviour of price post-breakout for clues as to future

direction.

•Weakness following the breakout

– the expectation is for a breakout failure &

reversal back within the trading range.

• Weakness on the pullback

– the expectation is for a breakout pullback &

continuation, simply just a retracement move.

- the first 4 principles are within the support/resistance framework, the

final 2 are at the edges of the support/resistance framework.

Fifth principle

–

we expect a test of our framework S/R to hold unless

strength is displayed on approach to the S/R boundary.

•

Sixth principle

–

if strength is shown on an approach to an S/R barrier ,

we expect a breakout & watch the behaviour of price post-breakout for clues

to future direction.

•

Weakness following the breakout

– the expectation is for a breakout failure &

reversal back through the area of S/R . maybe upper tails on candles

•

Weakness on the pullback

– the expectation is for a breakout pullback &

continuation. basic retracement to support.

everything requires patience & waiting & if a move gets away from you

don’t worry about it. –remember ‘the next 1000’.



Buying strength , fade weakness & trade

against trapped traders.

• trying to do this as simply as possible by watching strength & weakness in the

extensions & pullbacks of price action.– almost start with price & add indicators as conformation

• I trade a mixture of John Persons /John Carter pivot point trading with some

indicators. I also use some of Zac Zacharia’s methods. some Woddies CCI system & reading price action similar to Lance Beggs & Davin

Clark.- price action is my number 1 concern.

•

I will start with looking at other trader perspective.

•

AGAIN I THANK Lance Beggs for letting me use his material ,

he

This is a very quick & basic look at price structure in the

trading timeframe

Compare swings in opposite

direction

compare angles of bullish & bearish

swings

Increased projection is a sign of potential

trend strength

Decreased projection is a sign of

potential trend weakness

Increased depth is a sign of trend

weakness

Decreased depth is a sign of

potential trend strength

Same price action as previous slide-happened as I was doing power point

6) IDENTIFY AREAS OF TRADE OPPORTUNITY

THE ENTRY – remember price is the main indicator.

- Basically set S/R lines.

- Define trend on 3/5 min chart & look for set ups.

(Buying breaks of these candles is like buying at retail prices)

-TRY TO LOOK FOR BETTER ENTRIES ON THE LOWER TIMEFRAME 1 min or 25 tick chart, these entries are more like buying at wholesale prices e.g. spikes, springs, breakouts, patterns.

- Check support/resistance lines – mark previous days high & low. -Check direction & slope of moving averages lines.

Check every average after each 5 min candle has finished.

Like to really watch 9 period pivot point average & 20 EMA average. -Check all pivot lines.

- Best trades are when 5 & 15 min. indicators are in line.

- Check price action & look at price extensions & price projections.

- Check divergences, trade in path of least resistance. Don’t trade announcements, I don’t trade at US open time. Know what you want and the market you want to trade (Eg - 10 Points on Euro Stox 50, 20 points on Dax). And whatever else you might want to use.



SIMPLE IS BETTER-YOU THINK YOU KNOW THESE

BUT DO YOU REALLY??

Opportunity is found at higher timeframe s/r levels, change of trend, trend line breaks, pivot point lines ,

swing high / low pivots & pullbacks within a trend. It is identified in these areas by

weakness within the price action & trapping other traders into taking bad positions. I use 5 price setups, 3 which occur at price support & resistance lines

And 2 which occur within a trend

1) TST – a test of support or resistance which is expected to hold;

2) BOF – a breakout failure, as price breaches an area of support or resistance & then reverses;

3) BPB – a breakout pullback, as price breaches an area of support or resistance & it holds;

4) PB – a simple ,single leg, pullback within a trend;

non price setups include watching for trend line breaks on price & some indicators - rsi & cci trend line breaks

- alerts set when cci crosses +/- 50 - .

I am playing with the aroon indicator (I use this on my main weekly trading) as it is a very basic measure of highs & lows against time.

Also looking at a keltner channel / bollinger band break (john carter) in times of low volatility to take away some of the screen time.

Remember make price your main indicator

Entries are taken when my market analysis is done & looking at what price principle I might be able to use.

I can enter off a 3/5 min chart but will look for a better entry off my lower timeframe as my preferred market , the stox 50 has a 2 point spread & I need good entries.

I keep a record of which setups work best, this way I can see what to use & avoid. I sent an email to Lance Beggs for some help with my breakout failure entry.

The answer was simple –don’t use the set-up(is counter trend trading & some people cant do it).

Right now my best performing set up is the breakout pull back. If you get it wrong, don’t stress you can stop & reverse.

I FIND MOST NEW TRADERS LOOSE HERE-SWING LOWS HAVE NOT BEEN

BROKEN IN THESE SLIDE-UP TREND STILL IN PLACE

Closer look at complex pullback-I found it hard to get my

head around it.

All my trade examples are basically taken the week after ATAA movie

night-did this so I could not cherry pick trades & to show the good & the

bad.

-smallest position size taken ,as I may have been forcing trades & trying

to save slides for power point. (not really a fan of paper trading as you

feel no emotion)-not good with computers.

My normal euro 50 size is 5 contracts as I am aiming for 10 points($100 a

night) as my trading gets better I will increase size.

This came about after having heavy loses on the Dax

My theory was that most currency trading courses cost between $5000 –

8000 so if I lost $4000 learning I would be in front.

With no real plan this happened real quick.

TEST OFF MS2-TAKING PROFITS WHERE MOST WILL ENTER

TEST OFF MS2 SPRING – TOOK PROFITS WHERE MOST WILL ENTER

3

TEST DIDN’T

HOLD-EXCEPT

BREAKOUT.

Real happy with this as I sold at a point I would have entered 9 months ago

BOF OR BPB SETTING UP. SHORT TAKEN ON

Trading timeframe setup & lower timeframe entry.

Might have been a little early but went early to beat

the spread.

Enter long-got it wrong with a small loss

-but you can stop & reverse.

Don’t get upset because you got it wrong , just move

on.

SS

Bof entry got out early-no reason to hold for a full target

Breakout pull back entry-felt better, but let the better one

go, close to getting points though

Made money , but not happy as it would have been high risk with full position , tst

may have been the better trade

Complex pullback or/& test entry – second principle

(up trend shows

evidence of weakness ,we expect a higher likelihood of a complex correction

rather than a reversal)

Up to swing high –now looking for a breakout & will asses after breakout

Right now treat breakout bof setups with caution as they

have been quickly reversed – it seems everyone now is fading

the breakout.

I don’t trade around news events no matter how tempting.

-have lost $ hundreds trying to find ways to trade these things

-it’s the whole get rich quick thing – now I walk away from them.

Should have got the pullback to the 20ema though.

Indicators have a place-I call them gates that

we have to pass through

Daily example

– ran out of time to get my own examples.

Beggs example & entry

3)Strength &

weakness

This is where it gets

hard, having to wait

for the next setup if

you missed the top.

4)Future trend

direction

5)Visualise future

price action



Where do I stop , there is so much more?

-how to set targets & stops.

-pre & in market trading process

-have you had enough sleep – very important.

-business plan , targets & goals, when do you increase position size.

-what sort of entries – limit ,stop orders or market orders

-the learning process , how are you going to handle drawdown.

-reading candles.

•

For anyone who thinks the setups are a little simple , remember some of the

big boys are using similar ideas.

•

Bruce Vanstone( AI expert & speaker at the last ATAA conference)told me

that one of their better systems uses % moves around pivot point lines &

around key support & resistance lines.

•

They keep good stats & can back test these sort of setups easily.

You must keep a journal of what setups are working ,I keep hearing now that all

breakouts fail & we must now fade the breakout.

These AI people keep better stats than us – I am now very careful in fading the

breakout.-this is what I did in 2009.

remember

- patience

-where’s strength ?

-where’s the weakness ?

-hold while the premise is valid

-forgive yourself & move on , remember –the next 1000