Cloud Computing futures

(1)

Cloud Computing futures

One of the most important IT trends of the decade has barely started

CA Cloud Academy Summit – 16

th

_{February 2010}

Laurent Lachal –

[email protected]

(2)



Ovum



Cloud computing - past and present



Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain



Cloud computing - futures

(3)

Ovum

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Ovum/Datamonitor

[50]

Analysts

[100]

Analysts

[150]

Analysts

150 Analysts

100 Analysts

TECHNOLOGY AND TELECOMS CONSULTING

150 Analysts

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

Ovum



Cloud computing - past and present



Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain



Cloud computing - futures

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Rapid evolution

From controversy to business



2006-2009 = public cloud (IaaS then PaaS and SaaS)



2009-2010 = public vs. private cloud



2010-2011 = hybrid cloud

---

2006-2010: what is it?



2010 -2011: how can I benefit from it?

‘Style of computing’

‘Damn big server farm’

Architecture

Business model

Strategy

No private cloud!

No SaaS!

Evolution

Revolution

(7)

The new black for suppliers

Some fashions are more important than others



Every vendor converging on it – many still finalizing offerings



Internet-centric companies (e.g. Amazon, Google, Salesforce.com)



IT software incumbents (e.g. IBM, Microsoft, Oracle)



IT service incumbents (e.g. Accenture, Capgemini, CSC, Indra, Rackspace)



Telecom incumbents (e.g. AT&T, BT, Telefónica, Vodafone)



Private cloud users turned (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) public cloud providers



Big money and profits already: e.g. Amazon web services (UBS Investment

Research, Aug10)



$500m to $2.5bn - 2010 to 2014 (1.7% to 3.7% of total revenue)



49% to 53% gross margin (more than twice gross retail margin)

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Public clouds: two perspectives

Technology < Business perspective

Self-service standardized

online services upgraded

centrally and evolved

iteratively available from large

data centers over multiple

networks via multiple devices,

software and APIs

PAYG? Elastic? No

commitment? To start with

Transparent pricing? Cheap?

Not necessarily

Ecosystem

services

Marketplace services

Business services

Community services

SPI model

SaaS

Software-as-a-service

PaaS

Platform-as-a-service

IaaS

Infrastructure-as-a-service

(9)

IaaS use: Netflix



From DVDs in the mail to online video delivery:

$600 million in profit on $1.6 billion in sales last

year - largest commercial operation in the cloud



Move to AWS end 09 almost complete



video encoding farm first then large-scale log and

analytics based on Hadoop in 2009



on-demand streaming, API and more than 80% of

its Web functionality in 2010 + API



back end infrastructure to migrate in next few years

Product

Catalogue

Pricing

CRM



Prefer to spend millions on content rather than servers and facilities



As AWS agnostic as possible to keep choice open

(10)

Private clouds: two perspectives

IT < end-user perspective (no private cloud without it)



1 increasing pressure



keep up with public

cloud Joneses

Automation

Virtualisation

SOA

Standard

services

Self-service

Chargeback

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All levels



public cloud (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS)



public / private (NB: private =

hybrid)



cloud / traditional services



software products, applications



from companies to supply chains

(e.g. Pharma)



Reflects market maturation

Hybrid clouds: all levels

Success = right recipe

Private

Shared

private

Virtual

private

Public

Internal

External

1 n

Virtual

Shared

private

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Pharma: Genome research supply chain example

Cloud

Applications

(Virtual)

DataCenter

(Virtual) DataCenter

Organization

A

Cloud

Applications

Cloud Compute

Plasmapper

Ensembl

(Virtual) DataCenter

Organization

B

VPN

Internal

SLA

No SLA

Limited

SLA

Commercial

SLA

genome

Plasmapper

genome

Ensembl

Source: BT

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Mixed adoption

Private/hybrid cloud small but big potential

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Benefits

Multiple layers of benefits

Convenience,

simplicity, speed

Adaptation, innovation

Lower costs, cost

transparency

Quality of service (QoS)

centralization

Cloud computing

Avoid public cloud

limitations/constrains

Adopt public cloud

technologies, designs

and best practices

Private cloud

Capex to Opex,

affordable

IT focus, risk to vendor

Fast updates/feedback

Scalability & reach

Internet integration

Easy to access, demo,

test, use, share…

Public cloud

IaaS

reuse & control

PaaS

speed of

development, integration

SaaS

turnkey proposition

Lower cost >

convenience,

speed, lower

risk, new tech

(15)

Challenges

Multiple layers of challenges

Info, resources, skills

Service-centric IT

execution &

governance: OSS &

BSS infrastructure

Demand/cost

management + cost

transparency

QoS/SLAs

Interoperability

Cloud computing

Old industrialization,

consolidation &

standardization concerns.

New generic (e.g. green IT,

network) & cloud specific

(e.g. self-service, sharing)

concerns

Private cloud

Migration/long-term

costs, Capex vs opex

Security, compliance

Immaturity and

evolution/ upgrade

Shadow IT

Public cloud

IaaS

effort & constrains

PaaS

constrains, lock-in &

technologies

SaaS

functionality

& customizability

(16)



Ovum



Cloud computing - past and present



Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain



Cloud computing - futures

(17)

Cloud in Europe: behind NA and APAC



SaaS international

already



IaaS and PaaS

becoming so



Big APAC potential

(18)

Cloud in Europe: European Commission focus

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Innovation for recovery

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Jan 10 Innovation Union Scoreboard: EU behind US & Japan



cloud R&D - link to integration & open source

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Cloud friendly regulatory framework

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to deal with economic and legal issues

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challenge: finding the right balance

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“A cloud without robust data protection is not the sort of cloud we need”

(Viviane Reding, European Justice Commissioner, Jan 10)



Need to focus on more VC, less red tape

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Cloud in Europe: potentially big impact

Source: centre for economics and business research, Dec 2010

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Cloud in Spain: drivers and barriers

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Drivers



economic situation, SMEs (99.84% in January 2009) & services

(50%+GDP/43% jobs)



cost advantage, good (IT/transport) infrastructures, well educated

workforce, ties with Latin America



Large companies (Telefonica) & small start ups (Abiquo, EyeOS, Tuenti)



Spanish government’s Broadband Rollout Plan (PEBA) to extend access

to 99% of Spanish territory & cloud ambitions

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Barriers



Economic situation, weather, energy cost, inertia/conservatism



Vanson Bourne CA survey Feb10: 86% undecided as to cloud future



Colt CIO survey April -May 2010 – 58% Cloud awareness vs UK (77%),

Germany (75%), France (71%) and Italy (66%)

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Cloud in Spain: big potential

Source: centre for economics and business research, Dec 2010

(22)



Ovum



Cloud computing - past and present



Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain



Cloud computing - futures

(23)

Overview



(Relatively) slow growth, increasingly hybrid



demand: relationship evolution



supply: industry convergence



Slow interoperability



Intercloud a long way away



in the meantime, cloud federations rise (e.g. VMware or Microsoft cloud

provider ecosystem)

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Public sector role: US 2011 procurement guidelines

“OMB, as part of the FY 2011 Budget Process, requested all

agencies to evaluate cloud computing alternatives as part of their

budget submissions for all major IT investments, where relevant.

Specifically:

• By September 2011

– all newly planned or performing major

IT investments acquisitions must complete an alternatives

analysis that includes a cloud computing based

alternative

as part of their budget submissions.”

The State of Public

Sector Cloud Computing

Vivek Kundra

Federal CIO

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

Maturation: security and compliance to remain

top priorities, performance/SLA concerns to

increase



Difficulties will fuel a backlash

Public clouds become more business-centric



Driven by continuing economic crisis - big investments continue



From technology to ecosystem view



new roles (extenders, mediators, integrators, brokers…)



Consolidation/commoditization smaller than expected, democratization

larger than expected

(27)



Next big opportunity



emerges and converges

with IaaS



increased competition

Each public cloud sector goes its own way



Takes off & gets

complicated



production



internationalization



from storage and

compute to network



Explodes, expands and combines



IaaS/PaaS-based SaaS



SaaS combinations

PaaS

SaaS

IaaS

Many trends

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

virtual private clouds to become fashionable (supply chain)



orchestration, integrated self-services via governance portals will take time

to emerge



hybrid offerings help traditional ones (e.g. managed hosting services) get a

foot in the door

More private and hybrid clouds



Private clouds emerge with a focus on cost-aware service delivery



Public clouds keep internal IT on its toes



from technology to user-centric service delivery, slowly (from customer to

user satisfaction)



result in financially aware accountable data centers



increasingly automated, standardized, focused & governed API-centric IT

(29)

Messages to users



Consider whether you are ready for cloud computing, not just whether

cloud computing is ready for you.



Focus on what the cloud can do, not what it cannot do.



Head up, take stock and create your own recipes



Remain in control of your choices. Get involved, shape standards

(ODCA, ECLC, Cloud commons)



Get inspired by public clouds: Move towards

increasingly shared and service-centric IT

(30)



Unavoidable, early gold rush days



already big money



will take a decade to get established



Many perspectives



look top-down, not just bottom-up



Remain pragmatic and specific



focus on end (business outcome &

user experience), not mean (Cloud)



interact with others e.g. via Cloud

commons

Summary

Keep a balanced view/approach

SLA

User

concerns

IT

concerns

Top down

Bottom up

Browser-based

self-service PAYG

standardized app

portal/catalogue

Automated and

elastic pool of

abstracted

resources

(31)

Thank you – Any questions?

One of the most important IT trends of the decade has barely started

CA Cloud Academy Summit – 16th February 2010

Laurent Lachal –

[email protected]