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AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCE © 2019 AMERICANAJOURNALS | Volume 8 | Issue 1 | ISSN: 2356-6394

The Impact of China-Africa Trade And Outward Foreign

Direct Investment On The Economic Growth Of

Sub-Saharan Africa

Emma Serwaa Obobisa

School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, PR China

Email address

:

emmaserwaa2@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of China-Africa trade and OFDI on the economic growth of

Sub-Saharan Africa. A multivariate method context was utilized for the panel data spanning from

2003-2015. Our results, utilizing the Ordinary Least Square (OLS), fixed-effects, random effect and

Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models to 4 countries indicate that China-Africa trade and

OFDI has a positive impact on sub-Saharan Africa economic growth. Our findings therefore support

the view that the relation between trade openness, OFDI and economic growth is linear for

Sub-Saharan Africa.

The recommendation of the study is

that Sub-Saharan Africa as a developing

continent must formulate policies that would create a friendly environment for attracting FDI in

order to enable human capital development, technology transfer and economic growth. Also,

Sub-Saharan Africa countries must have more effective trade openness in order to boost their economic

growth.

Keywords

: International trade, Outward foreign direct investments (OFDI), Economic growth,

China, Africa

INTRODUCTION

China has become increasingly involved in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past years. This economic involvement has taken the form of growing Sino-Africa trade, investment, aids and Chinese industries moving to Africa (Ficawoyi 2018). China’s increasing presence in Africa has, however, spurred much speculation about the nature of the developing economic relationship model (Donou-Adonsou & Lim, 2018). Some researchers asserts that China OFDI can integrate Africa building and construction sector into the global economy through its investment flows and can boost the development of international networks (Boakye–Gyasi & Li, 2015). China FDI can be reasonable impact on the shaping

of policy in some sectors as their investments can propel the governments of Africa to strengthen their regulatory capabilities to bolster indigenous development. This tends to echo the need for Africa countries to gain from China OFDI in order to maximize technical knowledge, human capital, firm development and technological transfer. This study looks to ascertain whether China trade with Africa countries and OFDI to the continent contribute to the growth of Africa’s economy and performance.

From the global view, only few researchers have studied potential impact of trade and FDI on growth with focus on developing countries, though recent study shows that south to south trade have increased. Some other studies (Afonso, 2001; Akiri,

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Vehe, & Ijuo; Al-Sadig, 2013; Almfraji & Almsafir, 2014; Antwi, Mills, Mills, & Zhao, 2013; Belloumi, 2014) focused on international trade and OFDI in general whiles extant studies (Mourao, 2018; Shan, Lin, Li, & Zeng, 2018; Zahonogo, 2016) investigated economy-to-economy trade, OFDI and economic growth. In other words, these researchers (Babatunde 2011; Zhang, Wei, and Liu 2013) focused on the relationship among trade, FDI, economic growth and not the impact of a specific country trade and FDI on Africa’s economy.

Regarding the challenges this study addresses, number of researchers (Ademola, Bankole, & Adewuyi, 2016; Alden, Alao, Chun, & Barber, 2017; Ayodele & Sotola, 2014; Boakye–Gyasi & Li, 2015; Busse, Erdogan, & Mühlen, 2016; Dent, 2010; Doku, Akuma, & Owusu-Afriyie, 2017; Donou-Adonsou & Lim, 2018; Eisenman & Shinn, 2018; Kim, 2017; King, 2013; Klaver & Trebilcock, 2011; Li, 2017; Naniuzeyi, 2016; Onnis, 2017; Pigato & Tang, 2015; Sanfilippo, 2010; Voss, 2011; Wang & Elliot, 2014; Xing, 2016; Zhang, Alon, & Chen, 2014; Zhao, 2017) have been done on trade, FDI and economic growth of Africa with diverging results. However, most studies (Ayodele & Sotola, 2014; Biggeri & Sanfilippo, 2009; Boakye–Gyasi & Li, 2015; Busse, Erdogan, & Mühlen, 2016; Donou-Adonsou & Lim, 2018; Eisenman & Shinn, 2018; Harneit-Sievers, Marks, & Naidu, 2010; Pigato & Tang, 2015; Renard, 2011; Sanfilippo, 2010) regarding the connection between trade and the Africa economies although they include Africa and China bilateral have ignored the contribution of the China-Africa trade and OFDI as a model of growth. The findings, however, seems inconclusive. This study, therefore, seeks to contribute immensely to literature by further explicating the impact of international trade and OFDI from the perspective of emerging economies, China and Africa. The study further gives policy suggestions necessary to maximize the growth impact of China on Africa’s economy.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: section two presents the recent literature on the topic. Section three provides the econometric framework utilized. In the section four, the empirical results and findings are discussed whilst the Section five contains the conclusion and possible policy recommendation.

LITERATURE REVIEW

For several decades, most researchers Hofmann, 2013; Michael, 2018; Osano & Koine, 2016; Yingxi & Hung, 2018) have examined the nexus between trade, OFDI and economic growth using diverse

methodologies and samples. Most of these studies showed that there is cointegration among trade, OFDI and economic growth. Some of these literatures have confirmed a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (Chen and Nord 2017; Fosu 1990; Kim, 2011; Jouini, 2015; Leonidov, 2016). According to Fosu (1990) export increases improve economic growth in Africa economies. Chen and Nord (2017) study the potential effect of China’s new development model on Sub-Saharan Africa economies. The author’s outcome confirms the importance of trade ties between China and Saharan Africa economies, particularly between China and investment-driven commodity exporters, consistent with discoveries from (Kireyev & Leonidov, 2016), and Blagrave & Vesperoni, (2016). (Drummond & Liu, 2013) estimates the effect of China’s fixed assets investment (Baharom, Habibullah, & Royfaizal)(Baharom, Habibullah, & Royfaizal)(Baharom, Habibullah, & Royfaizal)Saharan Africa economies’ exports to China spanning from 1995–2012. The authors results include that a one-percent increase (or decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is connected with an average 0.6 percent increase (or decline) in Saharan Africa economies’ export growth. (Drummond & Liu, 2013) additionally, point out that increasing trading relation with China have pace a way for Africa economies to expand their export base across nations, away from developed “Northern” economies, which can be regard as a positive growth. However, the researchers also confirmed that the rising reliance on China might cause Africa economies to become more vulnerable to spillovers from China’s local economy. (Baliamoune‐Lutz,

2011) discover that Africa economies export goods to China and imports from China have a positive impact on Africa economic growth.

However, some researchers(Musila & Yiheyis, 2015; Ulaşan, 2015) revealed a negative causality between trade and growth. (Ulaşan, 2015) utilized a dynamic panel data context and revealed that trade openness has no relationship with economic growth.. Elu and Price (2010) study on the China and Africa trade relationship over the period 1992-2004 disclose that, there is no connection between productivity-enhancing FDI and trade with China. The authors further revealed that the increasing China-Africa trade has no influence on the growth rate of total factor productivity.

Several researchers that examined the causality among FDI and economic growth from the perspective of emerging Africa economies posit the existence of positive causality between FDI and economic growth (Nahidi and Badri 2014).

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Nahidi & Badri (2014), discovered a uni-directional causality running from FDI to economic growth. The author whilst applying a panel data for the Middle East, North Africa (MENA) region spanning from 2005-2010 revealed that FDI contribute positively to economic growth. Antwi, Mills, Mills, & Zhao, 2013 in their studies, revealed a bi-directional causality between FDI and economic whilst examining the influence of FDI on real output in Ghana. The author emphasizes the existence of a feedback relationship between FDI and economic growth of Ghana. Sackey, Compah-Keyeke, & Nsoah, (2012) established the existence of a positive longrun influence of FDI on Ghana’s economic growth spanning from 2001-2010. Some researchers (Carkovic & Levine, 2002; Frimpong Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, 2006) however, found that FDI does not granger cause economic growth. Frimpong Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, 2006, discovered an insignificant nexus among FDI and GDP for Ghana whiles investigating the FDI and economic growth in the context of Ghana, an indomitable economy in Africa with promising economic success.

Recent studies on China OFDI to Africa include those by Boakye-Gyasi and Li (2015), Baah, Otoo and Ampratwum (2008), Donou-Adonsou (2018), Klaver and Trebilcock, (2011) and Owusu-Afriyie (2017). Boakye-Gyasi and Li (2015), found that China OFDI flows contribute to employment creation through direct impact on building and construction sector of Ghana for the period 2000-2014 whilst applying the robust regression model. From the point of views and studies of other researchers (Donou-Adonsou 2018; Klaver and Trebilcock, 2011; Owusu-Afriyie 2017), China OFDI positively impact Africa economy.

According to Klaver and Trebilcock (2011) Chinese OFDI contributes to Africa growth through seven ways: commodity prices, capacity to extract, infrastructure. Donou-Adonsou (2018) in a recent study revealed that China OFDI contributes to Africa economic growth while using production function for the period 2003-2012. In establishing the link among China OFDI and output in emerging Africa economies, Owusu-Afriyie (2017), revealed that China OFDI contributes to Africa’s output. Baah, Otoo and Ampratwum (2008) examined China OFDI to Ghana and focused on the political, economic, and migration issues ties Chinese investment in Ghana. Their study employed a primary data approach using structured interview that spanned a five-day field study with participant from the GIPC, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance and Trade and Industry, official of the Chinese Embassy in Ghana, representatives of Ghana and others. Their study revealed that, Chinese

investment are mostly dominant in the manufacturing and general trade sectors of Ghana’s economy and surprisingly, China’s investment is relatively small in comparison to the total value of FDI inflow to Ghana. This study is significant for our research because it pertains to research instrument used in this research and it demonstrates the means by which FDI perception index was acquired and we believe it will be useful in our research

In the other vein, researchers such as Ademola et al. (2009) disclosed that China OFDI responds negatively to Africa’s growth more than positive. Many researchers have gone ahead to study the causality among selected variables in the trade-OFDI-economic growth nexus. This is to comprehend the direction of the causality among trade, OFDI and economic growth; crucial for policy formulation and future reforms on trade, FDI and economic growth especially for developing and emerging countries. Our study reviewed the causality analysis under regional and also at country levels. Other researcher that examined the causality among trade openness, FDI and economic growth from the perspective of China and Africa economies posit both positive and negative impact of OFDI to economic growth (Busse and Erdogan 2016). Busse and Erdogan (2016), whilst utilizing Solow Growth Model found a positive impact of China-Africa trade on Africa economy but a negative for China OFDI. Findings from most researchers seem inconclusive, hence the need for further studies to explicate the effect of trade and FDI on economic growth. Our study, therefore, seeks to further investigate the impact of international trade and FDI on economic growth from the perspective of the emerging countries, China and Africa whilst using recent methodologies and techniques.

3. DATA AND METHOD 3.1 Data

The data for this study is derived from the World Bank Indicators, UNCTAD, China´s Ministry of Commerce and United Nations Comtrade Statistics Database. The dependent variable is the economic growth (measured as Real GDP per capita). The explanatory variables: FDI (Stock of China outward foreign direct investment); total export (measured as Merchandise Export per capita); population (Total population growth); inflation (Inflation, GDP deflator), government final consumption. All the variables are taken in their natural logarithms form. This is a common phenomenon in such econometric analyses in finding relationship among these variables. The definitions for the utilized variables are shown in Table 1

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Table 1 Variable Definitions

3.2 Methods

This study used econometric model to investigate the impact of China-Africa trade and OFDI on economic growth of Africa. This study followed the approach of recent studies (Ademola, Bankole, & Adewuyi, 2016; Ajakaiye, 2006; Alden, 2005; Alden, Alao, Chun, & Barber, 2017; Anshan, 2007; Ayodele & Sotola, 2014; Boakye–Gyasi & Li, 2015; Busse, Erdogan, & Mühlen, 2016; Christensen, 2010; Davies, Edinger, Tay, & Naidu, 2008; Dent, 2010; Doku, Akuma, & Owusu-Afriyie, 2017; Donou-Adonsou & Lim, 2018; Eisenman & Shinn, 2018; Elu & Price, 2010; Gill, Huang, & Morrison, 2007; Gu, 2009; Harneit-Sievers, Marks, & Naidu, 2010; Jinyuan, 1984; Kim, 2017; King, 2013; Klaver & Trebilcock, 2011; Li, 2017; Naniuzeyi, 2016; Onnis, 2017; Pigato & Tang, 2015; Voss, 2011; Wang & Elliot, 2014; Xing, 2016; Zhang, Alon, & Chen, 2014; Zhao, 2017), in the FDI-trade-economic growth literature. All the variables were taken at its natural logarithms. This is a common phenomenon in such econometric analyses. This study additionally added government consumption and inflation to the paramount set of variables utilised in most recent studies. The main estimated equation of Chinese-Africa trade and FDI in their natural logarithms (L) is defined as:

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

The study performed Ordinary Least Squares analysis to examine the extent at which each model or variables affects the result of China-Africa trade and OFDI. This enables the study to eliminate or focus on the most critical variables that influence the dependent variable understudy. In addition, it enables the development of a predictive model that can be used to explore the causality between the observed variables. To meet this objective, the study will regress the dependent variables with the independent

variables based on the general form of the robust regression model:

Where LGDP denotes natural logarithms of Economic Growth; LTR denotes natural logarithms of trade; LINFLA denotes natural logarithms of Inflation Rate; LOFDI denotes natural logarithms of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment to Africa; LGCE denotes natural logarithms of General Government Final Consumption Expenditure and εt is an error term. The model is designed to provide information on whether economic growth is influence by the independent variables.

Fixed effect and random effect model

Using Baier and Bergstrand (2007), Liu et al. (2018), Shan and Lin (2018) Wooldridge (2003) approach, the study further used the Fixed and random effect model to achieve endogeneity bias. We investigated the models based on the variables in their natural logarithms (L). The Fixed and random effect equation in the extended model is estimated in Equation 4-5 as:

The study redefined the above equation as:

Where i is a country, Yit is the dependent variable (GDP), t refers to a time period

X' represent a vector of expletory series (LGCE, LINFLA, LPOP, LOFDI, LTR).μitrefers to the error term consisting time-constant error and time-varying error (ai , vi), ai portrays the undetected elements that is unchanged and has impact on Yi , vi depicts the idiosyncratic error that changes over period and has impact on Yi. The study assumes that the time-variant error it v is uncorrelated with each independent variable across all time periods, the estimation of the model (6) can be established in two models: the fixed effects estimation and the random effects estimation. With the fixed effect estimation, the time-invariant error i a is correlated with the explanatory variables. Under the random effect model, i a is assumed not correlated with any explanatory variables. The study assumes that time-constant error i a is correlated with explanatory variables and there is no intercept in equation (7), we average this equation over time for each i to get

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The study subtract equation (7) from equation (8) for each t, we get

Under the fixed effects only the effects of variables that change at certain period can be measured. The fixed effects estimator is assumed to be unbiased when theXitin all time periods are uncorrelated with the vit in all time periods for the regressors. Therefore, equation (8) can be estimated by OLS in the study and parameter β can be performed the transformed in equation (9) by OLS. The random effects estimator further assumes that ai is uncorrelated with regressors in all time periods. Hence, equation (9) develops random effect model. The error termai anduit is assumed to be mutual in each time period, the composite error uit is serially linked all the time. We average equation (9) in each i over time as:

Where a fixed proportion λ within the individual is `subtracted from the data to achieve transformed model(0 ≤ λ ≤ 1)and presented as:

The variance-covariance matrix φa2and φ u 2 are unidentified therefore, following (Liu & Tang, 2018) the study measured it using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). GMM estimator takes into consideration the dependency of the error term within individual over time period and countries. Also, the estimated OLS and the fixed effects are assumed to be biased upwards estimator and biased downwards respectively. An instrumental series estimator that applies this statistics best is the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. Valid instruments are lagged levels yi, t−2 ,…., yi, t−3 ,….. yi, 1 . The GMM estimator uses the moment condition to establish the parameters constantly and proficiently in two phases.

EMPIRICAL RESULTS

This section discusses the results and findings from the descriptive statistics, OLS, fixed effect and random effect. Table 2 shows the descriptive statistics. The table revealed that the highest mean was recorded by population followed by economic growth with the least mean recorded by trade and

inflation. OFDI recorded the highest changes in the panel data as shown by the standard deviation. population and OFDI therefore appear to be key variables for Sub-Saharan Africa. The correlation matrix results, however support our literatures that GCEt, OFDIt, TRt, are major influential factors of GDP as it is significant and positively correlate with GCEt,OFDIt,TRt.

Table 2 Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix results

The results of the unit root test

This study initially tested the unit root properties of the variables with conventional approach-ADF and PP Test. All these test as reported in Table 3 revealed that all the variables are I (1), thus; they are non-stationary at the levels but becomes non-stationary after the first differencing.

Table 3 Results of the Unit Root Test

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Table 5 shows the estimates of the impact of China-Africa trade and OFD on the economic growth of Africa. The linear regression model (5) is utilized firstly applying FMOLS. The coefficient associated with the variable of inflation (INFLA) and population (POP) are statistically insignificant. This might imply that Africa inflation and population growth does not exhibit significant impact on the Africa economic growth, which could be due to the inefficiency of the pooled linear regression model. The OLS results do little about the problem of unmeasured variables that influence both trade and aid volumes between countries.

To control unobserved individual heterogeneity, model (6) is estimated and the results are shown in columns 2 –3. The Hausman test

revealed that the fixed effects model is preferred. However, no significant impact can be found on the total trade between China and Sub-Saharan Africa countries. It implies that the Sino-Africa trade is not an indispensable catalyst for the growth, which conforms to the practice. These results seem not to support the assumption that trade openness increases economic growth. A possible reason could be that trade benefits of foreign aid are not only limited to the current year. Model (4) with lagged terms of dependent variable (GDP) is estimated using GMM to avoid the problems of omitted variable and reverse causality. For remaining regressors, such as the government consumption, OFDI and trade show significant impact on economic growth. The coefficients of INFLA and POP capturing the impact of china-Africa trade and OFDI on Africa growth are still statistically insignificant. Additionally, GCE, OFDI and TR (government consumption expenditure, OFDI and trade) are significant, which further proves that China-Africa trade and OFDI contributes to economic growth in Africa.

Table 4 Results of the ordinary least squares

Table 5 Results of regression with fixed-effect and Random model (Dependent Variable GDP)

CONCLUSION

Trade, OFDI and its associated with economic growth capture one of the sensitive topics in the field of economics in every country. Several researchers have conducted a lot of studies concerning the predictability of the result of future events. The same cannot be said when it comes to the study and predictability of the economic growth in Africa. For countries to attain economic growth and development maximize, it is prudent to find a market and investment that will yield the needed revenues. However, the merits inherent in trade and FDI of host countries is making it attractive for countries wanting to trade internationally and attract foreign investment.

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This study is shifting from the norm to focus on the impact of trade and FDI on the Africa economies with particular reference to China and Africa economic relationship. Our study investigated the impact of China-Africa trade and outward foreign direct on the economic growth and performance of Africa economies for the period 2003-2015. Our study achieved the following objectives: examined the role of China-Africa trade, outward foreign direct investment on economic growth of the Sub-Saharan Africa economies for the study period. The main aim for such a comparative research is that the developing economies, the economic relationship between China and Africa countries have increased remarkably in recent years. China, therefore happens to be Africa largest investor and trading partner. The study used the recent econometric methods: Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), Fixed effect, random effect and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for better, accurate and thorough analyses and discussions.

The key findings are summarized as follows. First, only a positive effect of OFDI and population on the China’s OFDI to Africa is found. The findings are consistent with the notion that OFDI and population boosts economic growth, particularly in the host countries. Whereas, the inflation not affected by the economic growth. Second, China-Africa trade exhibits a positive influence on the economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa. Third, promoting trade and OFDI is a major concern for China to support the Africa region. These results advocate that the win-win agreement China sign when investing in Africa may be attained, and China OFDI contributes to growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical evidence seems to suggest that a positive relationship between China-Africa trade, OFDI and Africa economic growth would be achieved if China continue its existing outward foreign investment policy.

(1) The findings of this paper have important policy implications. The empirical results show that both trade and OFDI have a significantly positive impact on Africa economic growth, while there is a lack of evidence for the positive impact of inflation on Africa GDP, this may suggest that China can continue the existing foreign aid policy as an element for its exports within the South-South cooperation context, which brings win-win partnership for China and Africa. Nevertheless, the study recommends for more China OFDI in Africa countries, which would interpret into higher economic growth, and consequently leading to reduction in poverty in the region. To achieve economy growth,

Africa countries should transform its trade growth mode to increase level of gross domestic product by strengthening international cooperation and taking advantage of being a leading exporter of goods and services. Policy makers must stimulate FDI through encouragement acts such as tax rebate for investors to embrace more foreign investments in continent. A policy suggestion for enhanced growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be to reform the labor sector in sub-Saharan Africa to ensure increased production. Our study highly recommends that Africa countries modifies its trade and FDI policies to attract more foreign investment.

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Figure

Table 3 Results of the Unit Root Test
Table 5 shows the estimates of the impact of China-Africa trade and OFD on the economic growth of Africa

References

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