1
Last update: 24 September 2013
Publications Michel den Elzen
Refereed journal articles
1. Hof, A.F., den Elzen, M.G.J., Roelfsema, M., 2013. The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. Environmental Science and Policy 33, 308-319.
2. den Elzen, M.G.J., Olivier, J.G.J., Höhne, N., Janssens-Maenhout, G., 2013a. Countries' contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress. Climatic Change, 1-16.
3. den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., Roelfsema, M., 2013b. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020. Energy Policy 56, 633-643.
4. den Elzen, M.G.J., Beltran, A.M., Hof, A.F., van Ruijven, B., van Vliet, J., 2013c. Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries' reduction targets by 2050. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18, 491-512.
5. van Vliet, J., van den Berg, M., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M., Hof, A.F., Beltran, A.M., Meinshausen, M., 2012. Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming: A Letter: A Letter. Climatic Change 113, 551-561.
6. van Ruijven, B.J., Weitzel, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., Peterson, S., Narita, D., 2012a. Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches. Energy Policy 46, 116-134.
7. van Ruijven, B.J., van Vuuren, D.P., van Vliet, J., Mendoza Beltran, A., Deetman, S., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2012b. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions. Energy Economics 34, S459-S469.
8. Höhne, N., Taylor, C., Elias, R., Den Elzen, M., Riahi, K., Chen, C., Rogelj, J., Grassi, G., Wagner, F., Levin, K., Massetti, E., Xiusheng, Z., 2012. National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: Comparison of studies. Climate Policy 12, 356-377.
9. Grassi, G., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., Pilli, R., Federici, S., 2012. The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges. Climatic Change 115, 873-881. 10. den Elzen, M.G.J., Meinshausen, M., Hof, A.F., 2012. The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto
period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancún Agreements. Climatic Change 114, 401-408. 11. van Vuuren, D.P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M.G.J., Kram, T., van Vliet, J., Deetman, S., Isaac, M.,
Goldewijk, K.K., Hof, A., Beltran, A.M., Oostenrijk, R., van Ruijven, B., 2011. RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Climatic Change 109, 95-116. 12. Mendoza Beltran, A., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., van Vliet, J., 2011. Exploring the
bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations. Energy Policy 39, 7361-7371.
13. Hof, A.F., den Elzen, M.G.J., Mendoza Beltran, A., 2011. Predictability, equitability and adequacy of post-2012 international climate financing proposals. Environmental Science and Policy 14, 615-627.
2
14. den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., Roelfsema, M., 2011a. The emissions gap between the Copenhagen pledges and the 2°C climate goal: Options for closing and risks that could widen the gap. Global Environmental Change 21, 733-743.
15. Den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., Mendoza Beltran, A., Grassi, G., Roelfsema, M., van Ruijven, B., van Vliet, J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2011b. The Copenhagen Accord: Abatement costs and carbon prices resulting from the submissions. Environmental Science and Policy 14, 28-39.
16. van Vuuren, D.P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vliet, J., Isaac, M., 2010a. Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3W/m2 in 2100. Energy Economics 32, 1105-1120.
17. Van Vuuren, D.P., Isaac, M., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Stehfest, E., Van Vliet, J., 2010b. Low stabilization scenarios and implications for major world regions from an integrated assessment perspective. Energy Journal 31, 165-192.
18. Hof, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2010a. A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change: Does discounting still matter? Ecological Economics 70, 43-51.
19. Hof, A.F., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2010b. Including adaptation costs and climate change damages in evaluating post-2012 burden-sharing regimes. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15, 19-40.
20. Hof, A.F., Den Elzen, M.G.J., 2010. The effect of different historical emissions datasets on emission targets of the sectoral mitigation approach Triptych. Climate Policy 10, 684-704.
21. den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., van Vliet, J., 2010a. Postponing emission reductions from 2020 to 2030 increases climate risks and long-term costs. Climatic Change 99, 313-320.
22. den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., Hagemann, M.M., van Vliet, J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2010b. Sharing developed countries' post-2012 greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15, 433-465.
23. den Elzen, M., Roelfsema, M., Slingerland, S., 2010c. Dealing with surplus emissions in the climate negotiations after Copenhagen: What are the options for compromise? Energy Policy 38, 6615-6628. 24. den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C. Climate
Policy 10, 247-260.
25. Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Obersteiner, M., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, K.M.G.J., Möllersten, K., Larson, E.D., 2010. The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Climatic Change 100, 195-202.
26. van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vliet, J., Kram, T., Lucas, P., Isaac, M., 2009. Comparison of different climate regimes: the impact of broadening participation. Energy Policy 37, 5351-5362. 27. van Vliet, J., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2009. Meeting radiative forcing targets under
delayed participation. Energy Economics 31, S152-S162.
28. Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., Van Vuuren, D.P., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Eickhout, B., Kabat, P., 2009. Climate benefits of changing diet. Climatic Change 95, 83-102.
29. Hof, A.F., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Van Vuuren, D.P., 2009a. Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented versus universal regimes: What can we learn from model studies? International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 9, 39-62.
3
30. Hof, A.F., de Bruin, K.C., Dellink, R.B., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2009b. The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation. Environmental Science and Policy 12, 832-843.
31. den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., van Vliet, J., 2009. Analysing comparable greenhouse gas mitigation efforts for Annex I countries. Energy Policy 37, 4114-4131.
32. Dellink, R., den Elzen, M., Aiking, H., Bergsma, E., Berkhout, F., Dekker, T., Gupta, J., 2009. Sharing the burden of financing adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change 19, 411-421. 33. Winkler, H., Höhne, N., den Elzen, M., 2008. Methods for quantifying the benefits of sustainable
development policies and measures (SD-PAMs). Climate Policy 8, 119-134.
34. Van Vuuren, D.P., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.K., et al., 2008. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105, 15258-15262.
35. Hof, A.F., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2008. Analysing the costs and benefits of climate policy: Value judgements and scientific uncertainties. Global Environmental Change 18, 412-424. 36. den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P.L., Van Vuuren, D.P., 2008a. Regional abatement action and costs under
allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO2-equivalent concentrations. Climatic Change 90, 243-268.
37. den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Moltmann, S., 2008b. The Triptych approach revisited: A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation. Energy Policy 36, 1107-1124.
38. den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2008. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting concentration stabilisation targets: An editorial comment. Climatic Change 91, 249-274.
39. Van Vuuren, D.P., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P.L., Eickhout, B., Strengers, B.J., Van Ruijven, B., Wonink, S., Van Houdt, R., 2007. Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Climatic Change 81, 119-159.
40. Lucas, P.L., van Vuuren, D.P., Olivier, J.G.J., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2007. Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Environmental Science and Policy 10, 85-103.
41. Den Elzen, M.G.J., Van Vuuren, D.P., 2007. Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 17931-17936.
42. den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., Brouns, B., Winkler, H., Ott, H.E., 2007a. Differentiation of countries' future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime. An assessment of the "South-North Dialogue" Proposal. Environmental Science and Policy 10, 185-203.
43. den Elzen, M., Meinshausen, M., van Vuuren, D., 2007b. Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: Costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase. Global Environmental Change 17, 260-280.
44. van Vuuren, D.P., Eickhout, B., Lucas, P.L., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2006a. Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing - Exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework. Energy Journal 27, 201-233.
45. van Vuuren, D.P., Cofala, J., Eerens, H.E., Oostenrijk, R., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., den Elzen, M.G.J., Amann, M., 2006b. Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe. Energy Policy 34, 444-460.
4
46. Meinshausen, M., Hare, B., Wigley, T.M.L., Van Vuuren, D., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Swart, R., 2006. Multi-gas emissions pathways to meet climate targets. Climatic Change 75, 151-194.
47. Höhne, N., den Elzen, M., Weiss, M., 2006. Common but differentiated convergence (CDC): A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy. Climate Policy 6, 181-199.
48. Den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M., Lucas, P., Criqui, P., Kitous, A., 2006. Multi-stage: A rule-based evolution of future commitments under the climate change convention. International Environmental
Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 6, 1-28.
49. den Elzen, M., Meinshausen, M., 2006. Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: Global and regional emission implications. Climate Policy 6, 545-564.
50. den Elzen, M.G.J., Schaeffer, M., Lucas, P.L., 2005a. Differentiating future commitments on the basis of countries' relative historical responsibility for climate change: Uncertainties in the 'Brazilian Proposal' in the context of a policy implementation. Climatic Change 71, 277-301.
51. den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P.L., 2005. The FAIR model: A tool to analyse environmental and costs implications of regimes of future commitments. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 10, 115-134.
52. den Elzen, M., Lucas, P., van Vuuren, D., 2005b. Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes. Energy Policy 33, 2138-2151.
53. den Elzen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Höhne, N., Trudinger, C., Lowe, J., Matthews, B., Romstad, B., de Campos, C.P., Andronova, N., 2005c. Analysing countries' contribution to climate change: Scientific and policy-related choices. Environmental Science and Policy 8, 614-636.
54. van Vuuren, D., den Elzen, M., Berk, M., de Moor, A., 2002. An evaluation of the level of ambition and implications of the Bush climate change initiative. Climate Policy 2, 293-301.
55. Van Harmelen, T., Bakker, J., De Vries, B., Van Vuuren, D., Den Elzen, M., Mayerhofer, P., 2002. Long-term reductions in costs of controlling regional air pollution in Europe due to climate policy.
Environmental Science and Policy 5, 349-365.
56. Metz, B., Berk, M., Den Elzen, M., De Vries, B., Van Vuuren, D., 2002. Towards an equitable global climate change regime: Compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development. Climate Policy 2, 211-230.
57. Mayerhofer, P., De Vries, B., Den Elzen, M., Van Vuuren, D., Onigkeit, J., Posch, M., Guardans, R., 2002. Long-term, consistent scenarios of emissions, deposition, and climate change in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy 5, 273-305.
58. den Elzen, M.G.J., De Moor, A.P.G., 2002a. Analyzing the Kyoto Protocol under the Marrakesh Accords: Economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness. Ecological Economics 43, 141-158. 59. den Elzen, M.G.J., De Moor, A.P.G., 2002b. Evaluating the Bonn-Marrakesh agreement. Climate
Policy 2, 111-117.
60. Den Elzen, M., Schaeffer, M., 2002. Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change 54, 29-73.
61. Berk, M.M., Den Elzen, M.G.J., 2001. Options for differentiation of future commitments in climate policy: How to realise timely participation to meet stringent climate goals? Climate Policy 1, 465-480. 62. De Vries, B., Bollen, J., Bouwman, L., Den Elzen, M., Janssen, M., Kreileman, E., 2000. Greenhouse gas emissions in an equity-, environment- and service-oriented world: An IMAGE-based scenario for the 21st century. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 63, 137-174.
5
63. den Elzen, M.G.J., Beusen, A.H.W., Rotmans, J., 1997. An integrated modeling approach to global carbon and nitrogen cycles: Balancing their budgets. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11, 191-215. 64. Braddock, R., Filar, J., Zapert, R., Rotmans, J., den Elzen, M., 1994. The image greenhouse model as a
mathematical system. Applied Mathematical Modelling 18, 234-254.
65. Rotmans, J., Den Elzen, M.G.J., 1993. Modelling feedback mechanisms in the carbon cycle: balancing the carbon budget. Tellus, Series B 45 B, 301-320.
66. Den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J., 1993. Modeling climate related feedback processes. Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part A Environmental Science and Engineering 28, 2095-2151. 67. Rotmans, J., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Krol, M.S., Swart, R.J., Van Der Woerd, H.J., 1992. Stabilizing
atmospheric concentrations: towards international methane control. Ambio 21, 404-413.
68. Rotmans, J., Den Elzen, M.G.J., 1992. A model-based approach to the calculation of global warming potentials (GWP). International Journal of Climatology 12, 865-874.
69. den Elzen, M.G.J., Swart, R.J., Rotmans, J., 1992a. Strengthening the Montreal Protocol: Does it cool down the greenhouse? Science of the Total Environment 113, 229-250.
70. den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J., 1992. The socio-economic impact of sea-level rise on the Netherlands: A study of possible scenarios. Climatic Change 20, 169-195.
71. den Elzen, M., Janssen, M., Rotmans, J., Swart, R., de Vries, B., 1992b. Allocating constrained global carbon budgets: Inter-regional and inter-generational equity for a sustainable world. International Journal of Global Energy Issues 4, 287-301.
72. Swart, R.J., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J., 1990. Emission scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. EMISSIESCENARIO'S VOOR HET INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE 5, 82-89.
73. Den Elzen, M.G., 2002. Exploring climate regimes for differentiation of future commitments to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations. Integrated Assessment 3, 343-359.
74. Martens, W., Den Elzen, M., Slaper, H., Koken, P., Willems, B., 1996. The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: an assessment of the Netherlands and Australia. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 1, 229-240.
6
Technical reports
1. Roelfsema, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., Hof, A.F., Braun, N., Fekete, H., Brandsma, R., Larkin, J., Böttcher, H., 2013a. Analysing greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
2. Roelfsema, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., Höhne, N., Braun, N., Fekete, H., Brandsma, R., Larkin, J., Böttcher, H., 2013b. Methodology for analysing greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands,
http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2013-methodology-policy-brief-analysis-of-domestic-climate-policies.pdf.
3. Den Elzen, M.G.J., Fransen, T., Rogner, H.H., Gütschow, J., Grassi, G., Höhne, N., Levin, K., Sawin, E., Roelfsema, M., Taylor, C., Xiusheng, Z. (Eds.), 2013. Emissions trends under both business-as-usual and pledge implementation scenarios. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenia.
4. den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2013. The Gap Between the Pledges and Emissions Needed for 2 C. Elements of a New Climate Agreement by 2015, 9.
5. Bakker, S., Coninck, H.d., Egging, R., Jansen, J., Oostvoorn, F.v., Kok, M., Aerts, J., Asselt, H.v., Bayangos, V., Beers, C.v., 2013. Beyond Climate. Options for broadening climate policy. Policy Studies 2012, 2011.
6. Angelsen, A., Wang, C., den Elzen, M.G.J., Mendoza Beltran, A., 2013. REDD credits in a global carbon market: Options and Impacts. A report prepared for NOAK (Den nordiska arbetsgruppen för globala klimatförhandlingar – The Nordic Working Group for Global Climate Negotiations), the Nordic Council of Ministers. .
7. Johansson, D.J.A., Lucas, P.L., Weitzel, M., Ahlgren, E.O., Bazaz, A., Chen, W., den Elzen, M.G.J., Ghosh, J., Grahn, M., Liang, Q.M., 2012. Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime. Kiel Working Paper.
8. Höhne, N., Braun, N., Fekete, H., Brandsma, R., Larkin, J., den Elzen, M.G.J., Roelfsema, M., Hof, A.F., Böttcher, H., 2012. Greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies - Policy brief. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
9. Hof, A.F., Brink, C., Mendoza Beltran, A., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2012. Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030: Conditions for a EU target of 40%. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
10. den Elzen, M.G.J., Roelfsema, M., Hof, A.F., Böttcher, H., Grassi, G., 2012. Analysing the emission gap between pledged emission reductions under the Cancún Agreements and the 2 °C climate target. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
11. Van Ruijven, B., Weitzel, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., Peterson, S., Narita, D., 2011. Assessment of the impacts of different post-Kyoto regime proposals on China and India. POEM Working Package 2 report, European Commission DG Environment.
7
12. Slingerland, S., Meyer, L., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2011. Forks in the Road:
Alternative Routes for International Climate Policies and their implications for the Netherlands. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven/The Hague.
13. Hof, A.F., den Elzen, M.G.J., Van Vuuren, D.P., Mendoza Beltran, A., Slingerland, S., 2011. Climate Policy after Kyoto. Analytical insights into key issues in the climate negotiations. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
14. Alcamo, J., Adegoke, J., Ribeiro, S.K., Metz, B., Patwardhan, A., Ramakrishna, K., Zahedi, K., 2011. Bridging the Emissions Gap: a UNEP Synthesis Report.
15. van Vuuren, D., Den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Meinshausen, M., Rogeli, J., Chaeffer, M., Fenhann, J.V., Christensen, J.M., O'Neill, B., Riahi, K., 2010. How Close Are We to the Two Degree Limit?: UNEP Governing Council Meeting & Global Ministerial Environment Forum 24-26 February, 2010 Bali, Indonesia, by Chief Scientists Office, UNEP, in conjunction with representatives from nine scientific groups. Information Note.
16. den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., Mendoza Beltran, A., Roelfsema, M., van Ruijven, B.J., van Vliet, J., Van Vuuren, D.P., Höhne, N., Moltman, S., 2010a. Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord: Chances and risks for the 2°C climate goal. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL),
Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
17. den Elzen, M., Hare, W., Höhne, N., Levin, K., Lowe, J., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Sawin, E., Taylor, C., van Vuuren, D., 2010b. The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C? A preliminary assessment. United Nations Environment Programme.
18. van Vuuren, D.P., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Strassman, K., Smith, S., Wigley, T., Raper, S., Riahi, K., de la Chesnaye, P., 2009a. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6, 2012.
19. van Vuuren, D.P., Hof, A., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2009b. Meeting the 2 °C target. From climate
objective to emission reduction measures. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), www.pbl.nl\en, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
20. den Elzen, M.G.J., Roelfsema, M., Slingerland, S., 2009a. Too hot to handle? The emission surplus in the Copenhagen negotiations. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL),
Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
21. den Elzen, M.G.J., Mendoza Beltran, A., Van Vliet, J., Bakker, S., Bole, T., 2009b. Pledges and actions: a scenario analysis of mitigation costs and carbon market impacts for developed and developing countries. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Pledges-and-actions.html.
22. den Elzen, M.G.J., Mendoza Beltran, A., Piris-Cabezas, P., Van Vuuren, D.P., 2009c. Analysing the international carbon market and abatement costs by 2020 for low concentration targets: policy choices and uncertainties. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
23. den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., Hagemann, M., van Vliet, J., 2009d. Sharing post 2012 developed countries’ greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
8
24. Den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., van Vliet, J., Ellerman, C., 2009e. Exploring comparable post-2012 reduction efforts for Annex I countries. MNP Report.
25. den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2009. Analysing reductions in Annex I and non-Annex I for meeting concentration stabilisation targets. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6, 112007.
26. den Elzen, M., Hof, A., van Vuuren, D., 2009f. Regional total climate change costs for different burden sharing regimes and concentration targets. IOP Conference Series: Earth and
environmental science 6, 322005.
27. Den Elzen, M., Dellink, R., 2009. Sharing the burden of adaptation financing: Translating ethical principles into practical policy. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6, 112021.
28. den Elzen, M., Beltran, M.M., Piris-Cabezas, P., van Vuuren, D., 2009g. BALANCING THE CARBON MARKET.
29. Dellink, R., Elzen, M.d., Aiking, H., Bergsma, E., Berkhout, F., Dekker, T., Gupta, J., 2009a. Sharing the burden of adaptation financing: an assessment of the contributions of countries. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
30. Dellink, R., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Bergsma, E., Dekker, T., Aiking, H., Berkhout, F., 2009b. Common-But-Differentiated-Responsibilities for adaptation financing: An assessment of the contributions of countries. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (Amsterdam), Amsterdam, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
31. Winkler, H., Marquard, A., Manley, J., Davis, S., Trikam, A., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., Witi, J., 2008. Quantifying SD-PAMs: National energy models and international allocation models for climate change mitigation. SOUTH AFRICAN CASE STUDY. Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South-Afirca,
http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/08Winkleretal-SD-PAMs%20quantified%20SA%20case%20study.pdf.
32. Stehfest, E., Bouwman, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., Eickhout, B., Jeuken, M., van Oorschot, M., Kabat, P., 2008. Vleesconsumptie en klimaatbeleid. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
33. Rao, S., Riahi, K., Cho, C., van Vuuren, D.P., Stehfest, E., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Van Vliet, J., Isaac, M., 2008. IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentrations to Low Levels. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Laxenburg, Austria.
34. den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., van Vliet, J., Ellerman, C., 2008. Exploring comparable post-2012 reduction efforts for Annex I countries. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, www.pbl.nl\en.
35. Co-operation, O.f.E., Development, 2008. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
36. Bakkes, J.A., Bosch, P.R., Bouwman, A.F., Eerens, H.C., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Isaac, M., Janssen, P.H., Klein Goldewijk, K., Kram, T., de Leeuw, F.A.A.M., Olivier, J.G.J., van Oorschot, M.M., Stehfest, E.E., van Vuuren, D.P., 2008. Background report to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030:
9
Overviews, Details, and Methodology of Model-Based Analysis. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
37. Sijm, J., Bakker, S., den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M., van den Wijngaart, R.A., 2007. Options for EU Burden Sharing and EU ETS allocation post-2012. Energy Centre Netherlands (ECN) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Amsterm, the Netherlands.
38. Faber, J., Boon, B., den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., Lee, D., 2007. Aviation and maritime transport in a post 2012 climate policy regime. CE Delft, Solutions for environment, economy and
technology, Delft, the Netherlands.
39. den Elzen, M.G.J., Olivier, J.G.J., Berk, M.M., 2007a. An analysis of options for including international aviation and marine emissions in a post-2012 climate mitigation regime. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
40. den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P., Gijsen, A., 2007b. The emissions targets and costs for the European countries under the 20% reduction target. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), www.mnp.nl\en, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
41. den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N., Lucas, P., Moltmann, S., Kuramochi, T., 2007c. The Triptych approach revisited: a staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
42. Den Elzen, M., Olivier, J.G.J., Berk, M., den Elzen, M., 2007d. An Analysis of Options for Including International Aviation and Marine Emissions in 1 Post-2012 Climate Mitigration Regime.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
43. Boeters, S., den Elzen, M.G.J., Manders, T., Veenendaal, P., Verweij, G., 2007. Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the
Netherlands.
44. van Vuuren, D., Den Elzen, M., Lucas, P.L., Eickhout, B., Strengers, B., van Ruijven, B., Berk, M., de Vries, H., Hoogwijk, M., Meinshausen, M., 2006. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of options and costs. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven.
45. Faber, J., Boon, B., Berk, M., den Elzen, M., Olivier, J., Lee, D., 2006. Aviation and maritime transport in a post 2012 climate policy regime. CE, Solutions for environment, economy and technology.
46. den Elzen, M., Meinshausen, M., 2006. Multi-gas emission pathways for meeting the EU 2 C climate target. Avoiding dangerous climate change, 299-309.
47. Lucas, P.L., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2005. A Multi-gas abatement analysis of the Marrakesh Accords. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, p. 34.
48. Jol, A., Eerens, H., Saunders, P., Barkman, A., Isoard, S., Mourelatou, A., Wiesenthal, T., Bates, J., Berk, M., Eickhout, B., 2005. Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system. EEA Report, 1-76.
49. den Elzen, M.G.J., Meinshausen, M., 2005. Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
10
50. den Elzen, M.G.J., 2005. Analysis of future commitments and costs of countries for the "South-North Dialogue" Proposal using the FAIR 2.1 world model. Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
51. Eickhout, B., Elzen, M.d., Vuuren, D.v., 2004a. Multi-gas emission profiles for stabilising
greenhouse gas concentrations: Emission implications of limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees centigrade.
52. Eickhout, B., Elzen, M.d., Kreileman, G., 2004b. The Atmosphere-Ocean System of IMAGE 2.2. A global model approach for atmospheric concentrations, and climate and sea level projections. 53. den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., Lucas, P., 2004. Simplified Multi-Stage and Per Capita
Convergence: an analysis of two climate regimes for differentiation of commitments. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands. 54. den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., 2004. Bottom up approaches for defining future climate
mitigation commitments. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
55. Berk, M.M., den Elzen, M.G.J., 2004. What if the Russians don't ratify?, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
56. van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., Lucas, P., Eickhout, B., Eerens, H., Oostenrijk, R., 2003a. Regional costs and benefits of alternative post-Kyoto climate regimes. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
57. van Vuuren, D.P., Cofala, J., Eerens, H., Oostenrijk, R., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., den Elzen, M.G.J., Amann, M., 2003b. Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe. EEA, Copenhagen.
58. Lucas, P., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2003. Mitigation costs and emissions trading for the Kyoto Protocol and various post-Kyoto climate regimes based on CO2 and non-CO2 MAC curves. Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
59. Elzen, M.d., Schaeffer, M., Eickhout, B., 2003. Responsibility for past and future global warming: time horizon and non-linearities in the climate system.
60. Eickhout, B., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2003. Multi-gas emission profiles for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP),
Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
61. den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P., 2003. FAIR 2.0: a decision-support model to assess the environmental and economic consequences of future climate regimes. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
62. den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., Lucas, P., Eickhout, B., Vuuren, D.P.v., 2003a. Exploring climate regimes for differentiation of commitments to achieve the EU climate target. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
63. den Elzen, M., Berk, M., Lucas, P., Eickhout, B., Van Vuuren, D., 2003b. Exploring climate regimes for differentiation of commitments to achieve the EU climate target. RIVM.
64. Criqui, P., Kitous, A., Berk, M.M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Eickhout, B., Lucas, P., van Vuuren, D.P., Kouvaritakis, N., Vanregemorter, D., 2003. Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in the UNFCCC Process up to 2025 - Technical Report. CNRS-IEPE, Grenoble, France.
11
65. Berk, M., Lucas, P., Eickhout, B., 2003. Exploring climate regimes for differentiation of commitments to achieve the EU climate target.
66. Vries, B.d., Vuuren, D.v., Elzen, M.d., Janssen, M., 2002. Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical Documentation.
67. Moor, A.d., Berk, M., Elzen, M.d., Vuuren, D.v., 2002. Evaluating the Bush climate change initiative.
68. Elzen, M.d., Moor, A.d., 2002. Evaluating the Bonn Agreement and some key issues.
69. Elzen, M.d., Both, S., 2002. Modelling emissions trading and abatement costs in FAIR 1.1-Case study: the Kyoto Protocol under the Bonn-Marrakesh Agreement.
70. Eickhout, B., den Elzen, M.G.J., Kreileman, G.J.J., 2002. The Atmosphere-Ocean System in IMAGE 2.2, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
71. den Elzen, M.G.J., Schaeffer, M., Eickhout, B., 2002. Responsibility for past and future global warming: time horizon and non-linearities in the climate system. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
72. den Elzen, M.G.J., Both, S., 2002. Modelling emissions trading and abatement costs in FAIR 1.1 - Case study: the Bonn Agreement and Marrakesh Accords. Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
73. den Elzen, M.G.J., 2002. Exploring post-Kyoto climate regimes for differentiation of future commitments to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven.
74. de Vries, H.J.M., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., Janssen, M.A., 2002. The Targets Image Energy model regional (TIMER) - Technical documentation. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
75. de Moor, A.P.G., M.M. Berk, den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2002. Evaluating the Bush Climate Change Initiative. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
76. Berk, M.M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Metz, B., 2002a. Differentiatie van Toekomstige Inspanningen in het kader van het Klimaatverdrag - enkele verkennende berekeningen ten behoeve van het NMP-4. Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
77. Berk, M., Minnen, J.v., Metz, B., Moomaw, W., Elzen, M.d., Vuuren, D.v., Gupta, J., 2002b. Climate OptiOns for the Long term (COOL)-Global Dialogue Synthesis Report.
78. Berk, M., Elzen, M.d., Metz, B., 2002c. Differentiatie van toekomstige inspanningen in het kader van het klimaatverdrag-Enkele verkennende berekeningen ten behoeve van het NMP4.
79. van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., Oostenrijk, R., 2001. RIVM contribution to UNEP
environmental Outtlook (Kiev). Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environmen. 80. den Elzen, M.G.J., de Moor, A.P.G., 2001a. Evaluating the Bonn agreement and some key issues.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, p. 34. 81. den Elzen, M.G.J., de Moor, A.P.G., 2001b. The Bonn agreement and Marrakesh Accords: an
updated evaluation. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, p. 34.
12
82. den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M., Both, S., Faber, A., Oostenrijk, R., 2001. FAIR 1.0 (Framework to assess international regimes for differentiation of commitments): a decision-support model to explore options for differentiation of future commitments in international climate policy making. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven.
83. Elzen, M.d., Schaeffer, M., 2000a. Assessment of major uncertainties in calculating regional contributions to climate change.
84. Elzen, M., Schaeffer, M., 2000b. Evaluating major scientific uncertainties of the Brazilian proposal for emission burden sharing. RIVM Rapport.
85. den Elzen, M.G.J., Schaeffer, M., 2000. Assessment of major uncertainties in calculating regional contributions to climate change. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP),
Bilthoven, p. 41.
86. Elzen, M.d., 1999. Report on the Expert Meeting on the Brazilian Proposal: scientific aspects and data availability. Center Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Cachoeira Paulista, Brasil. 87. den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., Schaeffer, M., Olivier, O.J., Hendriks, C., Metz, B., 1999. The
Brazilian proposal and other options for international burden sharing: an evaluation of methodological and policy aspects using the FAIR model, Bilthoven, the Netherlands (www.mnp.nl/en), p. 125.
88. Leemans, R., Kreileman, E., Zuidema, G., Alcamo, J., Berk, M., van den Born, G.J., den Elzen, M., Hootsmans, R., Janssen, M., Schaeffer, M., Toet, S., de Vries, B., 1998. The IMAGE User Support System: Global Change Scenarios from IMAGE 2.1, Bilthoven, pp. CD-rom.
89. den Elzen, M.G.J., 1998. The meta-IMAGE 2.1 model: an interactive tool to assess global climate change. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands. 90. de Vries, B., Bollen, J., den Elzen, M., Gielen, A., Janssen, M., Kreileman, E., Olivier, J., Bakker, J.,
Berk, M., Leemans, R., Swart, R., 1998. IMAGE-based scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), Bilthoven, p. 107.
91. Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M.B., de Vries, B.J., Beusen, A.H., den Elzen, M.G., Hilderink, H.B., Hoekstra, A.Y., Janssen, M.A., Koster, H.W., Niessen, L.W., 1997. 3 THE TARGETS MODEL. 92. den Elzen, M.G., Beusen, A.H., Rotmans, J., Koster, H.W., 1997. 8 THE BIOGEOCHEMICAL
SUBMODEL: CYCLES. Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach, 161.
93. Elzen, M.d., Beusen, A., Rotmans, J., Koester, H., 1995. Modelling Global Biogeochemical Cycles: an integrated assessment approach'. Global Dynamics and Sustainable Development
Programme, GLOBO Report Series.
94. den Elzen, M.G.J., Beusen, A.H.W., Rotmans, J., 1995. Modelling global biogeochemical cycles: an integrated assessment approach. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, p. 104.
95. Asselt, M.v., Rotmans, J., Elzen, M.d., Hilderink, H., 1995. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling. A Cultural Perspective Based Approach.
96. Slaper, H., den Elzen, M.G., vd Woerd, H.J., 1994. OZONE DEPLETION AND SKIN CANCER
INCDDENCE: AN INTEGRATED MODELING APPROACH AND SCENARIO STUDY. Stratospheric ozone depletion/UV-B radiation in the biosphere 18, 341.
13
97. Rotmans, J., Den Elzen, M., 1993. Halting Global Warming: Should Fossil Fuels by phased out. 1993) Global Warming. Concern for tomorrow. Tata Mc Graw-Hill Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi.
98. Slaper, H., den Elzen, M., van de Woerd, H., de Greef, J.d., 1992. Ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence: an integrated modelling approach. Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en
Milieuhygiëne.
99. Janssen, M.A., Elzen, M.d., Rotmans, J., 1992. Allocating CO2-emissions by using equity rules and optimization. RIVM Rapport 222901012.
100. Elzen, M.d., Janssen, M., Rotmans, J., Swart, R., Vries, H.d., 1992. Allocating constrained global carbon budgets: interregional and intergenerational equity for a sustainable world. RIVM Rapport 222901011.
101. Jonas, M., Elzen, M.d., Olendrzynski, K., 1991. A Time Dependent Zonally Averaged Energy Balance Model to be Incorporated into IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). RIVM Rapport 222901005.
102. Elzen, M.d., Rotmans, J., 1991. Modelling feedback mechanisms in the carbon cycle: balancing the carbon budget. RIVM Rapport 222901006.
103. den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J., Vloedbeld, M., 1991a. Stabilising atmospheric concentrations: towards international methane control. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.
104. den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J., 1991. Modelling feedback mechanisms in the carbon cycle: Balancing the carbon budget, 222901006 ed, Bilthoven, p. 32.
105. den Elzen, M., Kreileman, E., Rotmans, J., 1991b. Documentation to IMAGE: An integrated model to assess the greenhouse effect, Version 1.0, 481500800a ed, Bilthoven, p. 23 + 116.
106. Rotmans, J., Elzen, M.d., 1990. Temperature increasing potentials (TIPS) for Greenhouse gases. RIVM Rapport 222901001.
107. Elzen, M.d., Rotmans, J., Swart, R.J., 1990. The role of CFCs, substitutes and other halogenated chemicals in climate change. RIVM Rapport 222901002.
108. den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J., 1989. A scenario study on the socio-economic impact of the greenhouse effect for the Netherlands'. University of Limburg, Maastricht, the Netherlands. 109. Elzen, M.d., Rotmans, J., 1988. Simulatiemodel voor de maatschappelijke gevolgen van het
broeikaseffect voor Nederland. RIVM Rapport 758471008.
110. de Vries, B., Bollen, J., den Elzen, M., CPB, A.G., Janssen, M., Kreileman, E., Olivier, J., Bakker, J., Berk, M., Leemans, R., B1 Marker Scenario (IMAGE Model).
14
Books/book sections:
1. van Vuuren, D.P., Isaac, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Stehfest, E., van Vliet, J., 2010. Low stabilisation scenarios from an Integrated Assessment Model perspective (IMAGE/TIMER and FAIR), in: Hulme, M., Neufeld, H. (Eds.), Making climate change work for us.
2. Hof, A.F., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2010a. Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented vs. universal regimes: What can we learn from modeling studies?, in: Bierman, F., Pattberg, P., Zelli, F. (Eds.), Global climate governance after 2012: architecture, agency and adaptation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
3. Hof, A.F., de Bruin, K., R., D., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., 2010b. Costs, benefits and inter-linkages between adaptation and mitigation, in: Bierman, F., Pattberg, P., Zelli, F. (Eds.), Global climate governance after 2012: architecture, agency and adaptation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
4. den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., van Vliet, J., Lucas, P., 2010. A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation, in: Hulme, M., Neufeld, H. (Eds.), Making climate change work for us, European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 5. den Elzen, M.G.J., Meinshausen, M., 2006. Multi-gas emission pathways for meeting the EU 2°C
climate target, in: Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T., Yohe, G. (Eds.), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 299-310. 6. den Elzen, M.G.J., Berk, M.M., 2003. How can the Parties fairly and effectively establish future
obligations under long-term objectives?, in: Michel, D. (Ed.), Climate policy for the 21st century: meeting the long-term challenge of global warming. Center for Transatlantic Relations, Washington, D.C., pp. 79-112.
7. den Elzen, M.G.J., Schaeffer, M., 2002. Industrial ecology & integrated assessment: an integrated modeling approach for climate change, in: R.U., A., Ayres, L. (Eds.), Handbook of Industrial Ecology. Edward Elgar, Chetenham, UK, pp. 555-561.
8. Rotmans, J., den Elzen, M.G.J., 1999. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, in: Martens, W.J.M., Rotmans, J. (Eds.), Climate change: an integrated perspective, Advances in Global Change Reseach. KLuwer, Dordrecht/Boston/London, pp. 240-280.
9. Strengers, B.J., den Elzen, M.G.J., Koster, H.W., 1998. the land and food submodel : TERRA, in: Rotmans, J., de Vries, B. (Eds.), Perspectives on global change: the TARGETS approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
10. den Elzen, M.G.J., van Asselt, M., Beusen, A.H.W., Rotmans, J., 1997a. Human disturbance of global biogeochemical cycles, in: Rotmans, J., de Vries, B. (Eds.), Perspectives on global change: the TARGETS approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 191-215.
11. den Elzen, M.G.J., Beusen, A.H.W., Rotmans, J., Koster, H.W., 1997b. The biogeochemical submodel: CYCLES, in: Rotmans, J., de Vries, B. (Eds.), Perspectives on global change: the TARGETS approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 159-186.
12. den Elzen, M., 1993. Global environmental change: An integrated modelling approach. Rijksuniversiteit Limburg, Maastricht, p. 253.
15
13. Rotmans, J., den Elzen, M.G.J., 1992. Halting global warming: should fossil fuels be phased out?, in: Lal, M. (Ed.), Halting global warming: concern for tomorrow. Tata Mc Graw-Hill Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi, pp. 240-280.