The Polish Residential Market 2015

The Polish Residential Market 2015

The conference programme Day one, 21 October, Wednesday

9.00 – 9.20 Registration of guests. Breakfast.

9.20 – 9.30 The opening of the conference.

9.30 – 10.15 A friendly city, or what kind? A social analysis

Special Guest: prof. Janusz Czapiński, social sociologist, head of the „Social Diagnose” project, University of Warsaw

10.15 – 11.30 The excellent apartment sales in 2015 – the beginning of a new boom, or a normal, healthy moment of the market cycle? The findings from the latest REAS research.

Both analysts and developers agree that the turn of 2014 and 2015 was the best period for our residential market since the global economic downturn. Some say it is the result of the cyclical nature of the market, others see a natural reflection of the fact that the long-standing state interventionism has finally eased. How long will this market prosperity last?

 Supply and demand for residential properties in Poland’s largest cities.  Plans for launching new projects.

 Prices up or down? Possible scenarios.

Moderator: Katarzyna Kuniewicz, partner, research & market analysys department, REAS Paneliści: Zbigniew Juroszek, CEO, ATAL

Krzysztof Foder, sales and marketing director, Bouygues Immobilier Polska

Artur Ceglarz, vice-president, Robyg

Michał Witkowski, sales director, Skanska Residential Development Poland

11.30 – 11.40 Case study 1 11.40 – 11.55 Coffee break.

The problems and specific nature of competition between developers in large urban centers are well known in the industry. But what about the situation in middle-sized and small cities, where no more than several hundreds-dozens apartments are built in a year?

 The availability and costs of plots in smaller urban centers in Poland  How much cheaper than in a large city – average development costs

 Who are the buyers of apartments in small cities and what are their financial capabilities? Moderator: Marcin Jańczuk, member of audit committee, Polska Izba Nieruchomości

Paneliści: Michał Kubicki, CEO, UNIMAX

Małgorzata Mellem, vice-president, Budlex

Michał Kubasiewicz, CEO, Mak Dom

13.10 – 13.20 Case study 2 13.20 – 14.10 Lunch break.

14.10 – 14.55 The most interesting residential projects developed in Poland in last years

Moderator: Maciej Górka, real estate market expert, Domiporta.pl

14.55 – 16.10 Building societies: why can’t they still be created?

Even though the industry has for years discussed the idea of creating building societies in Poland, it has long lingered in the planning sphere. A positive climate for their creation has finally emerged with the change of the National Bank of Poland’s position on the issue. So why is it not happening yet?

 Building societies as an antidote to the high own contribution requirement for taking out mortgage loans?

 Projected state spending necessary for the operation of building societies.

 Examples of successful operation of building societies in Western and Central European countries.

Moderator: dr Jacek Furga, chairman of the Housing Finance Committee, Związek Banków Polskich Paneliści: prof. Jacek Łaszek, financial stability department, Narodowy Bank Polski

Hans Maltz, german lawyer

Roman Nowicki, chairman of the Polish Construction Committee

Christian König, head of the legal affairs, Association of Private Bausparkassen in Berlin

16.10 – 16.20 Case study 3

16.20 – 17.35 Facts and myths about demand for prime real estate.

Developers like to argue that a really luxurious property will always find a buyer. But luxury apartment and housing estate projects are in many cases empty. Is the developers’ mantra false, or perhaps these properties aren’t luxurious enough?

 Who is the „average” buyer of a luxurious property in Poland?  How fast will the ranks of millionaires grow in our country? Moderator: Kazimierz Kirejczyk, CEO, REAS

Paneliści: Karolina Kaim, CEO, Tacit Development Polska

Arkadiusz Wojciechowski, managing director, Sothebys

Katarzyna Rauber, sales director, Yareal

17.35 The conclusion of the first day of the conference.

21.00 Banquet

Day two, 22 October, Thursday

9.00 – 9.30 Breakfast.

9.30 – 10.15 The harmonious development of the City - Paris and its policy of the housing market development.

Special Guest: Dominique Alba, director, Paris Urban Planning Agency (APUR)

10.15 – 10.45 Goodbye millions, welcome thousands? Demographic forecasts for migration trends in the coming 10 years

10.45 – 11.30 The Y generation, or how will the most desired apartments look in 10 years?

People born in the 1990s make a completely new category of buyers that is only just entering our

residential market. Even today, it is worth considering what will be their financial capabilities, requirements and preferences regarding desired properties.

 Representatives of the „Y Generation”: who are they? What values are important to them? How can this translate into the residential market?

 The impact of migration trends on demand for apartments in the coming decade.

 The rapid growth of the BPO sector and the residential market – is it possible to cash in on this speeding locomotive?

Prelegents: Kinga Barchoń, director, real estate team, PwC

Krzysztof Sakierski, manager, real estate team, PwC

11.30 – 11.40 Case study 4 11.40 – 11.55 Coffee break.

11.55 – 13.10 „AftY” – scorned yesterday, hailed today. The current situation in the mortgage loan market.

After the change of the price indicators qualifying a property for purchase on loan in the “Apartment for the Young” program at the beginning of the year, borrowers have flocked to banks and developers’ sales offices. While in 2014 not all the budget funds allocated to subsidies were used, this year the ceiling is almost certain to be reached. As the popularity of “AftY” grows, there are more and more voices saying it corrupts the residential market, and its main beneficiaries are primarily banks and developers. Is it true?

 Price manipulation, promoting only peripheral projects, stuffing the developers’ pockets with cash – the list of accusations against “AftY” is long. Are they legitimate?

 The potential effects of the planned extension of the program to the secondary market.  When will the interest rates, and mortgage loan installments, go up?

Moderator: Marcin Krasoń, analyst, Home Broker

Paneliści: Bogusław Białowąs, deputy director, agency services department, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego

Robert Pepłoński, CEO, Dom Kredytowy Notus

Grzegorz Kiełpsz, CEO, PZFD

Paweł Komar, COO, Open Finance

13.10 – 13.20 Case study 5 13.20 – 14.10 Lunch break.

14.10 – 15.25 Better conditions may not come – how to kickstart the rental apartment market?

Young Poles no longer attach as much importance to having their own apartments as older generations, the realities of the labour market also force them to be more flexible when it comes to the place of residence. More and more foreigners are employed on temporary contracts by companies from the BPO sector in our country. It might seem these are ideal conditions for the rental apartment market to take off. What needs to change for it to happen?

 The potential of the Polish rental market – estimates and forecasts.

 Government programs supporting building for rent at the turn of centuries – a bunch of facts.

 The act on the protection of the rights of tenants – who is supposed to finally clean up this mess?

Moderator: Marek Wielgo, journalist, Gazeta Wyborcza Paneliści: Mariusz Kania, CEO, Metrohouse SA

Artur Kaźmierczak, CEO, Mzuri Investments

Piotr Linke, CEO, TFI BGK

Paweł Sztejter, partner, REAS

Zdzisława Ledzion-Trojanowska, member of the board, PSDRN

The rapidly enacted Act on special rules for restructuring of foreign currency housing loans due to changes in foreign currency exchange rates against the Polish currency was quite a surprise not only for banks, but also for borrowers themselves. The act in its final form turned out to be much more favourable for the latter than originally anticipated. Can we expect a mass retreat of borrowers from the Helvetian currency?

 Was such an act really necessary in the context of high repayment rates for foreign currency loans?

 The estimated cost of the effects of the act for banks

 Legal solutions adopted in other European countries – similarities and differences

Moderator: KPMG

Paneliści: Daniel Iwin, manager, mBank

Iwona Załuska, CEO, Upper Finance Consulting

Konrad Płochocki, CEO, Polski Związek Firm Deweloperskich