Final Report LED Demand Aggregation Study ClimateWorks Foundation

Final Report

LED Demand Aggregation

Study

ClimateWorks

Foundation

October 2011

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 5 Abbreviations 7 List of Tables 9 List of Figures 9 Background 11

Overview of Indian LED market 11

Growth drivers 11

Context of the study 12

Scope of the study 12

Task I 12

Task II 13

Task III 13

Content of the report 13

Task I: Estimation of space lighting demand 14

Analytical approach 14

Approach 1: Using floor area and allowable Lighting Power Densities (LPDs) 15

Estimation of total floor area 15

Commercial buildings 15

Residential buildings 16

Estimation of lighting power density (LPD) 17

Estimation of space lighting demand 19

Approach 2: Using total connected load and load distribution profiles 21

Estimation of connected load at the national level 21

Estimation of lighting load / space lighting demand 22

Comparative study of lighting demand estimation from approaches 1 & 2 23

Estimation of National lighting inventory / stock 25

Lighting Inventory and Lumen demand projection 29

Baseline lighting demand in lumen hours 29

National lumen demand projection 31

Task II: Identification of Energy & GHG Savings 33

Estimation of Market Share 33

Future Energy Savings Estimation 35

Analytical approach 35

Step 1: Future Improvement in Lighting 35

Step 2: Total Savings Potential 35

Step 3: Calculation of Penetration based Savings 35

Step 1: Future Improvement in Lighting 36

Technology Roadmap 36

Future Efficacy Predictions 36

Future Life Predictions 36

Price Roadmap 37

Step II: Total Savings Potential 38

Estimation of Future Market Share 38

Baseline Scenario 1 38

Baseline Scenario 2 38

Determination of Energy Savings 39

Baseline Energy Consumption 39

Energy Savings Potential 40

GHG Emission Reduction Potential 40

Step 3: Penetration based Savings 42

LED Penetration Rate 42

Calculation of Payback Period 42

Determination of Penetration Rates 42

Market Share based on Penetration Rates 43

Calculation of Savings 44

Flow Chart for calculation of Savings 45

Conclusion 45

Task III: Economic analysis of Demand aggregation strategies 46

CFL growth in India 46

Demand aggregation strategies 48

Stimulating economies of scale with demand aggregation strategies 49

Economic analysis of demand aggregation strategies 51

Demand aggregation in Residential buildings 51

Integration of LED lighting into the second phase of RGGVY scheme 51

Replacement of T12 luminaries 56

Replacement of CFL luminaries 56

Replacement of ICL bulbs 57

Demand aggregation in Commercial buildings 58

The production and supply scenario of LED lighting systems 61

White-Light LED 61

Components of LED luminaires 62

Manufacturing process 67

Raw materials 68

Key players in the manufacturing segment 69

LED‟s under the SEEP project 70

Conclusion 70

Recommendations and suggested roadmap 71

Appendix-I: Forecasting floor area in the residential buildings of the country 73 Appendix-II: Summary of lighting aspects of building energy audit reports 74 Appendix III: Cash flow statement for demand aggregation for BPL households 76 Appendix IV: Cash flow statement for demand aggregation of LED replacements for T12 luminaries 77 Appendix V: Cash flow statement for demand aggregation of LED replacements for CFL luminaries 78 Appendix VI: Cash flow statement for demand aggregation of LED replacements for ICL bulbs 79 Appendix VII: Cash flow statement for demand aggregation in central government buildings 80

Executive Summary

Over the years, opportunities for Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) in Indian lighting markets have showcased and materialised in automotive, communications, signage, signalling, architecture and entertainment sectors. The opportunity for LEDs in the general space illumination segment of residential and commercial buildings has most recently emerged. This segment is niche and has significant potential for market transformation towards LED lighting. LED technology has been globally recognised as super efficient and eco friendly in comparison to the conventional lighting technologies. Several strategies have been considered to promote LED lighting in India with demand aggregation being the key initiative.

In order to evaluate the demand aggregation strategies available with the stakeholders, it is necessary to understand the scale of this demand and the nature of savings that can be achieved by meeting the demand. In this regard, the ClimateWorks Foundation has initiated this study to analyze and estimate the total potential demand for space lighting in the residential and commercial buildings of India. The overall assignment has been broadly divided into three major tasks. The initial task involves estimation of space lighting demand in terms of the total installed lighting load in the residential and commercial building categories of the country. The findings of this task are critical supporting the basis for further analysis in the study. In the next task, national level energy savings and GHG emission reductions potential are estimated to understand the scale of benefits resulting from the complete market transformation. In the subsequent task, demand aggregation strategies have been proposed and analyzed to determine the overall costs and benefits derived by all segments of the stakeholders. The overall study is primarily focused to discuss the analytical approach, input parameters and assumptions to estimate and quantify the characteristics of Indian lighting market. The findings presented in each of the three major tasks are confined to general interior space illumination in the residential and commercial building categories of the country.

The estimation of space lighting demand in India is a complex web of quantification of parameters involving a very high degree of uncertainty. The floor space and connected load are the two primary input parameters driving the space lighting demand in residential and commercial buildings in the country. The scale of this demand estimated in this study is enormous with 31 GW of lighting load in the residential buildings and 11 GW in the commercial buildings. Further this study estimates that in residential buildings, 46% of the current lighting stock is accounted by CFLs followed by other florescent lamps (41%) and incandescent lamps (13%). In the commercial buildings 63.7% is accounted by CFLs followed by other fluorescent lamps (34.6%) and

incandescent lamps (1.6%). Apart from this the total annual lighting service is also determined in terms of teralumen-hours. Keeping this parameter constant per square metre of floor area, the future growth in the lighting market is determined for the next two decades. The market for general interior space illumination in India is estimated to increase by approximately 82% in the residential buildings and 54% in the commercial buildings over the next two decades.

After quantifying the lighting demand and the national lighting stock, the present levels of efficacy for various lighting technologies have been analyzed to determine the energy savings potential and GHG emission reductions. With complete market transformation in the present day‟s scenario, the annual energy savings potential and GHG reductions are estimated to the tune of 29,850 GWh and 25.6 million tcO2 respectively. The residential buildings contribute 76% of the national savings potential where as the commercial sector is

contributing for the remaining 24% potential.

In order to understand the future of Indian lighting market, a comprehensive analytical model is being developed considering the various dynamic characteristics of Indian lighting industry. Variations in critical lighting parameters like efficacy, price, useful life etc. are analyzed and competition among conventional technologies are considered in the development of this model. The parameters affecting the market penetration of LEDs have been forecasted after significant secondary research and consultations. This model conclusively determines that between 2016 and 2021 the price reductions and efficacy improvements anticipated in the LED technology will bring down the relative payback periods with respect to the conventional technologies to less than 3 years. The model also predicts that by 2021 the LED technology will penetrate 57% of the lighting market

in commercial buildings where as it will capture only 32% of the market in the residential buildings. By 2031 more than 80% of the lighting market will be captured in both the building categories. The findings of this model are based on Empirical frameworks which assume that market penetration is solely driven by the economics of transactions (payback periods). However the income level of the consumers, standardization of the technology, consumer confidence and many other purchase characteristics may also drive market penetration of LEDs.

In the final task of this study, demand aggregation strategies have been proposed and analyzed to assess and quantify the overall benefits for the system as whole. Demand aggregation strategies by public entities can be very useful in transforming the lighting market and motivating the major LED manufacturers to set up

production facilities in the country. Such strategies are always accompanied with benefits of bringing down the initial costs to affordable prices. The demand aggregation options proposed in this study may integrate with the existing schemes & policies or bring about a complete market transformation with newly evolved guidelines. The strategies are proposed for a variety of consumer segments like BPL households, Non BPL households, central government buildings, private commercial buildings etc. The price reductions of LED luminaries corresponding to the volume of the demand aggregation have also been determined from a variety of sources. With properly structured demand aggregation projects, LED lights can be procured at extremely competitive prices with discounts up to 30%. Detailed financial statements have been developed to further evaluate the demand aggregation options after considering the benefits of price reductions (discounts) and domestic manufacturing facilities. The whole set of assumptions in terms of aggregated demand, energy use parameters by various lamps, prices of luminaries, cost of energy saved and useful life have been developed for the sake of economic analysis. The economic analysis is not relevant to any particular stakeholder. The overall costs and benefits of demand aggregation projects (as whole) are being considered to evaluate the cash flows. The analysis shows that all the proposed demand aggregation options are economically very attractive at discount rates beyond 50% whereas the options with discounts less than 50% are promising only for replacement of incandescent and T12 lamps in residential and commercial buildings respectively. Therefore demand

aggregation strategies seem to be very promising with high volumes of aggregation and higher price reductions are availed from manufacturers.

The LED technology is still emerging and there is significant potential for growth in the efficacy, cost

effectiveness and useful life of the LED lighting fixtures. Thus the improvement of these critical parameters will drive the market penetration of LED technology in the near future. The findings of this study indicate that the market penetration in commercial buildings will be more aggressive in the future as compared to the residential buildings. Therefore the government should focus on initiating demand aggregation options for residential buildings to kick start the penetration of LED lighting technologies. Also the future policies in the Indian lighting industry should focus on initiating the following strategies:

Extensive multi state demand side management programs with LED lighting as the focal point initiative Investment conducive environment for global manufacturers for setting up Domestic manufacturing facilities of LEDs for long term sustainability

Extensive R&D in the LED lighting areas for capitalizing the potential for technology improvements in LED

Way forward

The findings of this study could form the basis for future detailed market assessment studies for various

investors in the energy efficient lighting industry. The demand aggregation options studied and analyzed in this study can be further formulated for institutional structuring and development of new schemes. The

government/policy makers may base the findings of this study to structure and develop incentives for various stakeholders in the LED lighting industry.

Abbreviations

BEE: Bureau of Energy Efficiency BLY: Bachat Lamp Yogana BPL: Below Poverty Line

CDM: Clean Development Mechanism CEA: Central Electricity Authority CER: Certified Emission Reductions

CFL: Compact Fluorescent Lamps

CMIE: Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy CPWD: Central Public Works Department

DSM: Demand Side Management

ECBC: Energy Conservation Building Code

ECO III: Energy Conservation and Commercialization (ECO) Bilateral Project Agreement EELE: Energy Efficient Lighting Equipments

ELCOMA: Electric Lamp and Component Manufacturers‟ Association of India EPS: Electric Power Survey

ESMAP: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program FTL: Fluorescent Tube Light

GDP: Gross Domestic Product GHG: Green House Gases

GIZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH GOI: Government of India

GTZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit GWh: Giga Watt hour (10^9 watt hours)

HP: Himachal Pradesh

HPERC: Himachal Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission ICL: Incandescent Lamps

INR: Indian National Rupees IRG: International Resources Group IRR: Internal Rate of Return

ISLE: Indian Society of Lighting Engineers LBNL: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

LPD: Lighting Power Density

MOHW: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare

MOSPI: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation MSDP: Multi State DSM Programmes

NMCC: National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council NMEEE: National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

RGGVY: Rajiv Gandhi Gramin Vidyutikaran Yojana Sqm: Square meter

SSL: Solid State Lighting

TERI: The Energy and Resources Institute Tlm: Tera Lumens Hours (10^12 lumen hours)

ToR: Terms of Reference defined for this assignment as per the ClimateWorks Foundation US DoE: United States Department of Energy

List of Tables

Table 1: Commercial floor estimates for India ... 15

Table 2: Summary of commercial floor estimates by GIZ ... 16

Table 3: Residential floor area estimates ... 17

Table 4: Population, urbanization and household size projections ... 17

Table 5: Interior lighting power density - building area method ... 18

Table 6: Interior lighting power density by space function method ... 18

Table 7: Average existing LPD ... 19

Table 8: Total space lighting demand in Residential sector ... 20

Table 9: Total space lighting demand (in Giga watt) in commercial buildings ... 20

Table 10: Space lighting demand in commercial sub-category buildings ... 20

Table 11: Space lighting demand estimation for the year 2011 ... 23

Table 12: Electricity consumption from lighting appliances for the year 2011 ... 24

Table 13: National lighting inventory in residential buildings ... 28

Table 14: National lighting inventory in Commercial buildings ... 29

Table 15: Estimation of baseline teralumen-hours of annual lighting service in residential buildings ... 30

Table 16: Estimation of baseline teralumen-hours of annual lighting service in commercial buildings ... 30

Table 17: Baseline annual lighting service in teralumen-hours for 2011 ... 31

Table 18: Estimation of annual lighting service intensity for year 2011 ... 31

Table 19: Market Share in Present Lighting Demand ... 33

Table 20: Efficacy Projections for Lighting Technologies ... 36

Table 21: Projected Life of various Lighting Technologies ... 37

Table 22: Price Projections of various Lighting Technologies ... 37

Table 23: Future Projected Lighting Demand ... 39

Table 24: Future Projected Lighting Demand ... 39

Table 25: Projected Future Baseline Consumption ... 39

Table 26: Projected Energy Savings Potential ... 40

Table 27: Projected GHG Reduction Potential (Determined Efforts) ... 41

Table 28: Projected GHG Reduction Potential ... 41

Table 29: Demand aggregation strategies recommended by NMCC core committee ... 48

Table 30: Demand aggregation strategies by stakeholder consultations ... 49

Table 31: Reduction in prices Vs volume of sales ... 50

Table 32: Reduction in prices of CFLs for large scale distribution programs ... 51

Table 33: Assumptions for economic analysis ... 52

Table 34: Assumptions for economic analysis of demand aggregation projects in Non BPL households ... 54

Table 35: Assumptions for demand aggregation in central government offices ... 59

Table 36: Summary of economic analysis of demand aggregation strategies ... 60

Table 39: List of countries producing Indium14 _{... 63}

Table 40: Production of primary Gallium – world ... 64

Table 41: Production of Yttrium - world ... 65

Table 42: world smelter production and capacity of Aluminium3 _{... 65}

Table 43: Mine production and reserves for Rare Earths3 _{... 66}

Table 37: Various materials used for different color LEDs ... 68

Table 38: Leading manufacturers of LED chips, components and fixtures* in the world ... 69

List of Figures

Figure 1: Trend of opportunities for LED market in India... 11

Figure 2: Total connected load in the Residential buildings category ... 21

Figure 3: Total connected load in the commercial buildings category ... 22

Figure 4: Distribution of connected load in the commercial buildings ... 23

Figure 5: Distribution of power consumption by appliances ... 25

Figure 6: Distribution of lighting load in residential buildings ... 26

Figure 8: National lighting stock in Millions ... 28

Figure 9: National lumen demand forecasting in teralumen-hours ... 32

Figure 10: Overall market share of different technologies in the present scenario ... 34

Figure 11: Analytical approach for Task II ... 35

Figure 12: Efficacy Projections for Lighting Technologies ... 36

Figure 13: Projected Life of various Lighting Technologies ... 36

Figure 14: Price Projections of various Lighting Technologies ... 37

Figure 15: Market Share of various Lighting Technologies for Commercial Buildings (Scenario 2)... 38

Figure 16: Market Share of various Lighting Technologies for Residential Buildings (Scenario 2) ... 38

Figure 17: Future Projected Lighting Demand ... 39

Figure 18: Projected Future Baseline Consumption ... 39

Figure 19: Projected Energy Savings Potential ... 40

Figure 20: Projected GHG Reduction Potential (Determined Efforts) ... 41

Figure 21: Projected GHG Reduction Potential (Aggressive Efforts) ... 41

Figure 22: Arthur D. Little Payback v/s Penetration Models ... 42

Figure 23: Payback for Conventional Technologies against LED in Residential Sector ... 42

Figure 24: Payback for Conventional Technologies against LED in Commercial Sector ... 42

Figure 25: Penetration of LED in Market Share of Conventional Technology in Commercial and Residential Sector ... 43

Figure 26: Projected Future Lighting Inventory ... 43

Figure 27: Share of LED in overall lighting Market... 44

Figure 28: Probable Savings Based on Penetration Levels ... 44

Figure 29: Flow Chart for Task II ... 45

Figure 30: The Indian lighting industry ... 46

Figure 31: Growth of CFL in India ... 47

Figure 32: Growth of CFL Vs GLS in India ... 47

Figure 33: Demand Vs manufacturing capacity for CFL‟s in India ... 48

Figure 34: Bulk order discounts available on the current market price of LEDs ... 50

Figure 35: Sensitivity of Project IRR with the price reductions provided by manufacturers ... 54

Figure 36: Price reduction vs. Project IRR for demand aggregation projects replacing T12 luminaries ... 57

Figure 37: Price reduction vs. Project IRR for demand aggregation projects replacing CFL luminaries ... 57

Figure 38: Price reduction vs. Project IRR for demand aggregation projects replacing ICL luminaries ... 58

Figure 39: Price reduction vs. Project IRR for demand aggregation in central government buildings ... 60

Background

Overview of Indian LED market

Light Emitting Diode (LED) lighting technology has been globally recognised as extremely efficient and eco friendly in comparison to the Incandescent Lamps (ICLs) and florescent lamps (FTLs, CFLs). Penetration of LEDs in India could significantly reduce lighting load, peak demand and overall energy consumption without compromising on the output. The entire lighting industry in India in 2009 was estimated to be INR 7167 crores1 _{out of which, the share of LED lighting was only INR 216.38 crores (@ Rs44.8 exchange rate)}2._{Over the} years the opportunities for LEDs in Indian lighting market have been across various segments including automotive, communications, transport, signage, signalling, architecture and entertainment. The opportunity for general space illumination of residential and commercial buildings purposes has recently emerged (see figure-1).

Figure 1: Trend of opportunities for LED market in India

Growth drivers

The Indian LED market is anticipated to grow at 54% till 2014 based on the estimates of a major lighting manufacturer. The various factors contributing to this growth are listed below.

Government support for promoting investments in energy efficient lighting systems Development of national standards for testing and performance evaluation

Transfer and Improvements in existing technology for new applications Global mandate to address GHG emissions &

Decline in average prices of LED

1 _{Statistics of Indian lighting industry, ELCOMA} 2 _{LED Lighting scenario in India, Philips}

Current times

General Space Illimunation

Recent past

Automotive

Entertainment

Communication

Architecture

Early Years

Task I

•Estimation of the total space lighting demand and future growth potential

Task II

•Identification of Energy Savings

Task III

•Economic Feasibility Study to implement the demand aggregation strategies

Context of the study

The Indian lighting sector especially the general illumination segment in residential and commercial buildings has significant potential for market transformation. The Ministry of Power and specifically the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) developed Bachat Lamp Yojana as the flagship scheme for increasing the market penetration of CFLs. Through various other policy interventions, it is estimated that sales of CFLs increased from 20 million in 2003-04 to 250 million in 2009-10, and reduced costs by 50%. Similar interventions to impact the LED market in India would greatly reduce the need to add generation capacity and also would significantly affect the peak demand. LED lighting offers advantages like:

Directional Lighting

Compactness & flexibility - lightweight, discreet and robust are making them very useful in virtually all lighting applications.

Durability and low power consumption leading to very economical life cycle costs Cool operation Lower heat generation and minimal effect on increasing space heat Lower maintenance costs

Produce all manner of different pure colours

Several strategies have been considered to promote LED lighting in India with demand aggregation being the key initiative. One of the key recommendations made by the Core Committee set up by the National

Manufacturing Competitiveness Council (NMCC) is the implementation of a multi-state demand side management program that would aggregate the demand for LED lighting, thereby stimulating economies of scale and reducing costs and time-frames. The committee has also proposed a few demand aggregation strategies in the final report „The Economic case to stimulate LED lighting in India‟.

To identify and execute the best option among the demand aggregation strategies available, it is necessary to understand the scale of the demand and the nature of the savings that can be achieved by meeting this demand. In this regard, ClimateWorks Foundation has initiated this study to analyse and estimate the total potential demand for space lighting in the residential and commercial buildings of India. The demand estimated represents the potential of Indian lighting market which can be met by LEDs. The study also determines the total energy and cost savings that can be achieved with a detailed cost-economics of the proposed demand aggregation programmes. This study will be further used to identify the impact that of an LED demand aggregation programme at national level on the GHG emissions trajectory.

Scope of the study

The overall assignment has been broadly divided into the following major tasks:

Task I

Task I involves the estimation of total space lighting demand in the residential and commercial sectors of India. Further the estimated demand is forecasted in the near future to identify the growth potential of the industry. The scope of lighting demand estimation in this task is confined for general space illumination purposes. The

project team has proposed two different approaches to estimate the space lighting demand in the task I. The first approach adopts floor area estimates as the basic input parameter and further uses the lighting power densities (LPDs) analyzed from the various building energy audit reports of BEE. The space lighting demand is further estimated as the product of the floor area and the LPDs of the respective category of the buildings. The second approach is based on the connected load data collected from the nodal agencies at the national level. The team will further analyse the functional distribution of connected load in the residential and commercial sectors to estimate the lighting demand. Subsequently the distribution/penetration of lighting technologies in the current lighting market is analysed for estimating the installed base of lighting inventory/stock. The lighting inventory is converted to an appropriate metric representing annual lighting service (lumen-hours) which is further forecasted based on the information from a variety of sources.

Task II

In task II, the team will undertake an assessment of the national level potential for energy savings and GHG emission reductions by adoption of LED based lighting applications in the commercial and residential building categories. The team will further forecast and analyze characteristics of LED and other technologies derived from the mapping of LEDs to the existing lighting technologies. The team will also evaluate the relative

penetration of LED with respect to the conventional technologies for the next two decades. This will be based on a theoretical model that relates the consumer penetration characteristics with the relative payback periods.

Task III

Task III involves analyzing economic feasibility for scaling up the LED market penetration (in commercial and residential buildings) at the national level. Several demand aggregation strategies will be recommended to take advantage of the price reductions, economies of scale and stimulate market with domestic manufacturing of LEDs. Various lessons learned from the CFL success story will be incorporated in the proposed demand aggregation strategies. The discounted prices of LEDs and performance shall be considered to form the basis of all the economic analysis.

Content of the report

This report is focused to discuss the analytical approach, input parameters and assumptions adopted to support all three tasks. Further the report presents the findings of each of the tasks that are primarily confined to general interior space illumination in the residential and commercial building categories of the country. In the commercial buildings category, the analysis may be further categorized separately for public and private sector owned buildings wherever possible. However there are certain limitations to carry out this assignment to the extent of the scope defined as per the ToR. These limitations are discussed in the following sections whenever and wherever required while detailing the methodologies.

The parameters quantified in this study are dependent on the information derived from a variety of sources available in the public domain. The study does not comment on the quality, scope and reliability of the

information derived from these sources. However while using certain information the contextual relevance and appropriateness may be discussed which are exclusively based on the judgments of the project team. Also the scope of the commercial and residential sectors may vary significantly across the sources of information. This variation in scope may affect the uniformity in the analysis and estimation of parameters. However any such variation is neglected for the purpose of simplification in the analysis presented in this study.

Task I: Estimation of space

lighting demand

This section of the report will discuss the analytical approach, input parameters and assumptions adopted to present the findings of this task. The objective of this task is to estimate the space lighting demand which is the presented as the total wattage of general lighting equipments currently installed in the country. This parameter is further used to estimate the national lighting stock in the residential and commercial building categories. The demand is also forecasted in the near future to understand the scale and nature of the future lighting market.

Analytical approach

The estimation of space lighting demand in the commercial and residential sectors of India is a complex web of quantification of parameters involving a very high degree of uncertainty. The rising floor area (residential and commercial), economy (especially the boom in services sector), gap in demand and supply of power, rising electricity/fossil fuel costs, industrial growth and many other factors play significant role in driving the space lighting demand. The availability and reliability of relevant sources of data has been a significant challenge in the development of the overall analytical approach.

Two different approaches have been adopted in structuring and developing the model for Indian space lighting demand. The overall analytical approach is presented in the following diagram. A comparative study of the findings of both the approaches is carried out in the later part of this study to identify the most appropriate demand estimate.

Estimation of space lighting demand

Approach 1:

Using total floor area and allowable lighting power density

Approach 2:

Using total connected load and load distribution profile

1. Estimation of total Floor area (in Sq.m)

2. Estimation of Internal lighting power density (Watt/Sq.m) 3. Estimation of space lighting

demand in KW

1. Estimation of total connected load 2. Analysis of load distribution

profile across different functions 3. Estimation of lighting load / space

The following sections will detail the methodology and various sources of information adopted in approaches 1 & 2 to estimate the required parameters.

Approach 1: Using floor area and allowable Lighting

Power Densities (LPDs)

This approach adopts the total floor area estimates in the commercial and residential building categories as the primary input parameter. Further it analyzes the actual existing lighting power densities in these building categories. Based on the floor area and the existing LPD estimates, the total wattage of the lighting equipments installed is calculated. The following sections will detail the analysis and relevant sources adopted for deriving the floor area and existing LPDs.

Estimation of total floor area

The total floor area estimates are derived separately for commercial and residential building categories. Commercial buildings

A variety of sources report the floor area estimates for the commercial buildings category in the country.

However further classification of this floor area estimate into public and private commercial is limited. Recently in June, 2010 a study („Total commercial floor space estimates for India‟) has been carried out by the ECO III team with the support of USAID and BEE for estimating the total floor area in the commercial buildings category. Similarly a study by LBNL „India energy outlook, 2009‟ also estimates the commercial floor space in India. The floor area estimates calculated by ECO III and LBNL are based on the no. of enterprises and

establishments reported for various categories of businesses/services defined in the „Economic census, 2005 by Ministry of statistics and programme implementation‟. The other sources that report similar information are Mckinsey, 2009 and ClimateWorks Foundation.

The ECO III study mentioned above also provides a comparative analysis of the commercial floor space estimates determined across different sources in the industry. In addition to the floor space estimates, the compounded annual growth rates are also provided by the respective sources (see Table-1). The study also estimates that approximately 30 Million sq.m of commercial floor space may be added every year across the country.

Table 1: Commercial floor estimates for India

Source Commercial Floor space in Million sq.m Compounded annual growth rate Commercial floor space projected for 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 McKinsey, 2009 697 752 812 877 947 1022 8% 1103.76 LBNL, India energy Outlook 860 885 912 939 966 995 3% 1024.85

ECO III, Total commercial floor space estimates for India 516 542 569 597 627 659 5% 691.95 ClimateWorks Foundation, EDS estimate 346 376 408 442 480 521 8.5% 565.285

Note* Underlined numbers in bold are as calculated or as provided in respective study of the source. The remaining numbers are projections based on the effective compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) – which is either assumed, or as calculated, based on the numbers provided.

Apart from this, the ECO III study has also made informed assumptions for the % distribution of commercial buildings floor space among public (26%) and private sectors (74%). These estimates are provided by the expert industry sources after significant consultations. The annual growth rates of commercial floor space provided in table-1 will form the basis for forecasting the space lighting demand in this sector.

Another useful source of information for estimating commercial floor space is the „Market assessment study for Tri-generation in India‟ undertaken by DSCL Energy Services Company Ltd in February, 2010. This study commissioned by GIZ has undertaken a review of the commercial floor space estimates reported by various agencies for different categories of buildings in commercial sector. Table- 2 shows the summary of existing floor space estimates presented in the above mentioned study.

Table 2: Summary of commercial floor estimates by GIZ

Market segment Unit

Floor space Remarks

Existing stock (year)

Projected stock (year) Private offices3 Million sq.m 21.04 (2009)

37.16 (2011) Data for seven major cities

considered based on availability of data

Central government offices4

Million sq.m 1.24 (2008)

NA Only central government. Data for state government and municipal offices are not available

Retail5 Million sq.m 2.83 (2006)

12.24 (2010) Represents organized retail segment only which is 4% of the total retail space

Hotels6 Rooms 65,614 (2009) 117,117 (2011) Include on 3 star and above rating for 11 cities

Hospitals7 Million sq.m 36.18- Govt. (2007) 29.07- Pvt. (2007)

NA Based on no. of beds and floor area per bed allowed by MoHFW

Airport8 Million sq.m NA

7.25 (2015) Based on Data for 47 airports across Tier-I, Tier-II & Tier-III level cities

Residential buildings

For the Residential building sector, the total floor area estimate has been calculated based on the provisional population totals derived from the census of India, 2011. The division of population among urban (30%) and rural (70%) India has been derived from the „Report of the technical group on population projections

constituted by the national commission on population‟ published by census of India in May 2006. The Census

3 _{Knight Frank Research; India Office Market Review; Q 1 2009}

4 _{Govt of India; Ministry of Urban Development; Annual Report; 2007-08}

5 _{AT Kearney; Windows of Hope for Global Retailers; Indian Retail Market Review Q3 2006 & 2008, Knight} Frank

6 _{India Report: The Voyage. An exploration of key hospitality markets in India by Cushman & Wakefield} 7 _{National Health Profile, 2007, MOHFW, GOI}

of India, 2006 report also provides population and urbanization projections until March 2026. A recent study by World Bank in 2008 for quantifying the electricity consumption in residential sector has further

extrapolated these projections until 2031. Apart from these projections the World Bank study has also projected the average household size in urban and rural India.

Based on the data provided in the above mentioned sources, a total of about 9670 million sq.m of residential floor space has been estimated in the country for the current year (see Table-3).

The annexure-1 shows the detailed calculations of residential floor space projections for the next two decades. These projections are based on the population and urbanization forecasts carried out World Bank in 2008. The average household area and the electrification rates in the urban and rural sectors have been projected after significant research and consultations with the experts in the industry.

Table 3: Residential floor area estimates

Population Total no. of households

Total no. of electrified households

Total area under electrified households

in million sq.m Urban 365030961.2 88550738.2 83060592.4 3903.848

Rural 845162460.8 184159869 110864241 5764.941

Total 1210193422

(as per census, 2011) 272710607 193924833 9668.79 The growth rate in residential building sector is estimated based on the population & urbanization projections provided by the Census of India, 2006 and World Bank, 2008. The forecasts of the key input parameters shown in the table-4 derive the growth in development of residential floor space in the country. This will form the basis for forecasting the space lighting demand in this sector.

Table 4: Population, urbanization and household size projections

Year Population ('000 persons)

Urbanization(% of urban population to

total)

Average household size

Urban Rural 2011 1210193.42 30.00 4.1 4.6 2016 1268961.00 31.10 4.0 4.5 2021 1339741.00 32.30 3.9 4.4 2026 1399838.00 33.40 3.9 4.3 2031* 1444110.00 34.60 3.7 4.1

Source: Census of India, 2006; World Bank, 2008

Estimation of lighting power density (LPD)

The LPD of a building represents the wattage of the lighting fixtures in the unit lighted area of the building. The Energy Conservation Building code (ECBC), 2007 developed by BEE defines the allowable LPDs for different categories of buildings in the country (see – Tables 5 & 6). The average LPD for various types of commercial buildings/spaces defined by ECBC is 12.3 watts/sq.m. The allowable LPD estimate for multifamily residential buildings is 7.5 watts/sq.m.

Table 5: Interior lighting power density - building area method

Building area type LPD (watts/sq.m) Building area type LPD (watts/sq.m)

Automotive Facility 9.7 Multifamily Residential 7.5

Convention Center 12.9 Museum 11.8

Dining: Bar Lounge/Leisure 14 Office 10.8

Dining: Cafeteria/Fast Food 15.1 Parking Garage 3.2

Dining: Family 17.2 Performing Arts Theatre 17.2

Dormitory/Hostel 10.8 Police/Fire Station 10.8

Gymnasium 11.8 Post Office/Town Hall/ 11.8

Healthcare-Clinic 10.8 Religious Building 14

Hospital/Health Care 12.9 Retail/Mall 16.1

Hotel 10.8 School/University 12.9

Library 14 Sports Arena 11.8

Manufacturing Facility 14 Transportation 10.8

Motel 10.8 Warehouse 8.6

Motion Picture Theatre 12.9 Workshop 15.1

Table 6: Interior lighting power density by space function method

Building type LPD (watts/sq.m)

Convention Centre 12.9

Dining: Bar lounge/Leisure 14 Dining: Cafeteria Fast Food 15.1

Dormitory/Hostel 10.8

Gymnasium 11.8

Health Care Clinic 10.8

Hospital/Health Care 12.9 Hotel 10.8 Motel 10.8 Museum 11.8 Office 10.8 Police/Fire Station 10.8

Post Office/Town Hall 11.8

Mall/Retail 16.1

Sports Arena 11.8

Motion Picture Theatre 12.9

Total/Average 12.3

The LPDs defined by ECBC signify allowable values that are theoretically calculated based on the function and purpose served by the building. However the estimation of space lighting demand should consider the actual existing LPDs rather than the allowable LPDs. Also the ECBC, 2007 does not categorize the buildings as public and private sector while defining the LPDs. Therefore various sources of building energy audit reports have been reviewed and analysed to derive the actual existing LPDs in the residential and commercial buildings. The energy efficient building program of BEE has undertaken energy audit studies for more than 25

commercial buildings in the public sector. These public sector buildings are distributed across different states and functions like educational university, hospital, hostel, office, administrative etc. Annexure-2 shows the summary of the energy audit studies pertaining to the lighting aspect of these buildings. The average interior LPD derived from this sample of commercial buildings is about 9.07 watts/sq.m.

For private commercial buildings in the country, the estimation of average existing LPD has been a major challenge as there are very few energy audit studies reported in the public domain. Also the scope of energy audit studies of private commercial buildings may vary significantly given the variety of services provided in this category of buildings in the country. However if the lighting aspect of these buildings are studied with a substantial sample size covering the various types of buildings, the results may be further analysed to derive the average existing LPD for these buildings. Therefore in the absence of such information 12.3 W/sq.m of LPD has been adopted for this category based on ECBC, 2007 recommendations.

For residential buildings in the country, the PwC team has analyzed recent survey findings of about 200 household buildings in the state of Himachal Pradesh. The built up area, lighting load, distribution of lighting technologies and other aspects of lighting have been analysed for all the 200 residential buildings. The average LPD estimated based on this analysis is about 3.43 watts/sq.m.

Table-7 shows the average existing LPD estimated for different sectors in the commercial and residential buildings category.

Table 7: Average existing LPD

Sector Public commercial Private commercial Residential Average existing LPD

(in watt/sq.m)

9.07

12.3 3.43

Source

Energy Audit studies of the efficient building program of BEE

ECBC, 2007 Himachal survey data

Estimation of space lighting demand

The Interior lighting power allowance of the building represents the total wattage of lighting fixtures required to illuminate the building. It is the product of the gross lighted area and the allowable LPD defined for the

building. For simplification of analysis, the gross lighted areas of buildings in the residential and commercial sectors have been assumed to be equal to the average floor area estimated in the previous sections.

The average floor area and LPD estimates calculated in the previous sections are used to determine the Interior Lighting Power allowance. This parameter which represents the total wattage of lighting fixtures presently installed in the country may also be considered as the total space lighting demand in the residential and commercial building sectors. Table-8&9 show the present space lighting demand in Giga Watt estimated for residential and commercial building sectors in the country. The residential buildings category contributes 33 GW of space lighting demand whereas for the commercial buildings four different estimates have been calculated based on the four different sources of floor space information.

Table 8: Total space lighting demand in Residential sector

Sector Residential

Floor space in sq.m 9668788370

LPD in W/sq.m 3.43

Space lighting demand in Giga watt

33.164

Table 9: Total space lighting demand (in Giga watt) in commercial buildings

Public

commercial

Private

commercial

Total

commercial

Source

2.60

10.05

12.65

McKinsey, 2009

2.42

9.33

11.74

LBNL, India energy Outlook

1.63

6.30

7.93

ECO III, Total

commercial floor space estimates for India

1.33

5.15

6.48

ClimateWorks Foundation

For further sub-categories of buildings in the commercial sector, the floor area estimates presented in table-2 and the allowable LPD estimates based on ECBC, 2007 are used to determine the space lighting demand. These space lighting demands correspond to the year of the floor area information available for the respective sub- categories of buildings (see Table-10). The demand estimates calculated in this table are not exhaustive and does not cover the whole of commercial sector buildings in the country. Therefore for simplification of further analysis in this report, the overall demand estimated for commercial buildings in table-8 has been used.

Table 10: Space lighting demand in commercial sub-category buildings

Sub-category Year Floor space in million sq.m Allowable LPD (watt/sq.m) as per ECBC, 2007 Space lighting demand in Giga Watt Private offices 2011 37.16 10.8 0.401328

Central government offices 2008 1.24 10.8 0.013392 Organised Retail 2010 12.24 16.1 0.197064 Private Hospitals 2007 29.07 12.9 0.375003 Government Hospitals 2007 36.18 12.9 0.466722 Airport 2015 7.25 10.8 0.0783

Approach 2: Using total connected load and load

distribution profiles

In this approach the total connected load in the residential and commercial building sectors is analysed from the database of the nodal agencies at the national level. The team has further analysed the functional

distribution of connected load in these sectors to estimate the lighting demand. The following sections detail the methodology and the analysis carried out to estimate the space lighting demand using this approach.

Estimation of connected load at the national level

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) undertakes a general review of the power scenario in India periodically in which it captures the no. of consumers and the total connected load for different categories of consumers. The All India total connected load of residential buildings has been compiled from the general review studies of CEA until 2008 and is presented in figure-2. Based on the general trend of the connected load, the same has been polynomially extrapolated until the year 2011-12. These projections indicate that the present total connected load in the residential buildings sector is about 200 GW.

Figure 2: Total connected load in the Residential buildings category

Similarly the all India total connected load in the commercial buildings sector has been extrapolated from the general review studies of CEA and these projections indicate that the present connected load is about 55 GW (see figure-3). R² = 0.9953 0 50 100 150 200 250 1992-93 1997-98 2002-03 2007-08

Figure 3: Total connected load in the commercial buildings category

Estimation of lighting load / space lighting demand

This task details the assessment of the % share of lighting load in the residential and commercial buildings among the various functions like HVAC, lighting, ICT & Entertainment and others. Further this share of lighting load is multiplied with the total connected load estimated in the previous section to derive the space lighting demand. The project team has come across several studies to analyse the load distribution profile based on the load research surveys for a sample of consumers. However none of these studies have adopted the samples that are representative of national level with a uniform geographical distribution of the sample. For residential buildings, the most useful source of information for this purpose is a recent load research report “Load Research for Residential and Commercial establishments in Gujarat” prepared by IRG/USAID in

consultation with BEE in 2010. This report which was concluded recently in March, 2010, (IRG/USAID in consultation with BEE) conducted a load research survey targeting 400 residential households in the state of Gujarat. The objective of this study was to understand the end-use consumption patterns of various appliances and evolve a suitable programmatic approach to be taken up by the state utilities. As per the findings of this survey, the lighting load constituted 5% of the total connected load in the residential buildings. Another useful source of information available for residential buildings is the Himachal survey data which was used to estimate LPD in the earlier section. Analysis of this survey data shows that lighting accounts for 19.66% of the total connected load.

The % share of lighting load derived from Gujarat study may represent the economically developed states in the country where as the % share derived from the Himachal survey may represent the economically

underdeveloped states. Further the estimation of most appropriate value (% lighting load) that is the representative of national level is derived from a weighted average calculated based on the population of economically developed and underdeveloped states. The corresponding weights derived from the population in the states as per their economic development is 0.3 for the % share of lighting load from Gujarat study and 0.7 for the % share of lighting load from Himachal survey. Thus the overall weighted average % share of lighting load estimated for residential buildings on this basis is 15.27%.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1992-93 1997-98 2002-03 2007-08

For the commercial buildings sector, Gujarat study has undertaken a load research survey targeting 200 commercial establishments where in the lighting load constituted 20% of the total connected load (see Figure-4). Based on this assessment of the share of lighting load, the space lighting demand (total wattage of the lighting inventory) for residential and commercial buildings in the country is estimated as shown in Table-11.

Figure 4: Distribution of connected load in the commercial buildings

Table 11: Space lighting demand estimation for the year 2011

Sector Residential buildings Commercial buildings

Total connected load in Giga watt 200 55

% of lighting load 15.27% 20%

Total lighting load / space lighting

demand in Giga watt 30.54 11

The total space lighting demand estimated using this approach is about 41.54 Giga Watt. The residential buildings category contribute about 30.54 GW where as the commercial buildings contribute 11 GW of this demand.

Comparative study of lighting demand estimation from approaches 1 & 2

Approaches 1 & 2 which are used to estimate the space lighting demand vary both analytically and also in terms of the scope of the information adopted. We may observe that the space lighting demand estimated in both the approaches (see tables 8 & 11) vary significantly. For the commercial buildings category, the demand estimated in approach II is compared across the four different demand estimates calculated in approach I (see table 9 & 11). This comparison shows that the demand estimated (in approach I) based on LBNL and Mc Kinsey floor space information is very much close to the estimate of lighting demand calculated in approach II. Therefore for the purpose of future analysis, the space lighting demand estimated in the commercial buildings category is adopted as 11 GW. Space cooling 45% Lighting 20% ICT & Entertainm ent 17% Others 18% Commercial buildings

For the residential buildings category, the project team has considered an indirect approach which compares the end use electricity consumption of lighting appliances across various other reliable sources of information. To begin with, the end use electricity consumption of lighting appliances is estimated based on the findings of lighting demand from approaches 1 &2. Further an annual average of 1580 hrs of operation has been assumed for all types lighting appliances in the residential buildings. This assumption is based on the secondary research of various load profile studies by LBNL, TERI etc. With this estimate of annual hours of use, the project team has calculated two different estimates of lighting energy consumption based on the total wattage/demand of lighting appliances derived from approaches 1&2 (see Table-12). The approach 1 has yielded 52,399 GWh of electricity consumption whereas approach 2 has yielded 48,253 GWh of consumption by lighting.

Apart from this, the 17th Electric Power Survey (EPS) of India has projected the total electrical energy consumption in residential sector in India until 2011-12. A total consumption of 194937 GWh is projected by CEA in the residential building sector. With respect to the total consumption of electricity, approach 1 estimate contributes 27% and the approach 2 estimate contributes 25% in 2011.

Table 12: Electricity consumption from lighting appliances for the year 2011

Parameter Approach 1 Approach 2

Electricity projections in residential sector in

2010-11 as per 17th EPS (in GWh) 194937

Lighting consumption based on approach 1 (in GWh)

52,399 48,253

% of total electricity consumption in residential buildings

26.88% 24.75%

Further the lighting energy consumption calculated in Table-12 has been compared with two important sources of information which have studied the appliance wise end use electricity consumption in residential building sector in the past.

The primary source of information regarding the electricity consumption by lighting appliances is adopted from a World Bank study “Residential consumption of electricity in India” in 2008 which was commissioned as a background study for developing strategies for low carbon growth. The study quantifies and projects the electricity consumption as a function of the no. households, household expenditure, electrification rates and appliance ownership. This assignment by World Bank has estimated 57, 786 GWh of electricity consumption by lighting appliances in the Residential sector contributing about 30% of the total electricity consumption in this sector for the year 2011 (see Figure-5).

Another important source of information in this regard is the distribution of electricity consumption in Indian buildings provided by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) in 2001. As per this source, 28% of the annual electricity consumption in residential buildings is contributed by lighting.

Therefore after comparing the lighting energy consumption estimates across various sources of information, the residential space lighting demand estimated as per approach 1 (33 Giga Watt) is considered as most appropriate value for further analysis in this study.

Figure 5: Distribution of power consumption by appliances

Source: World Bank, 2008

A lot of reasons can be attributed to explain the non-appropriateness of lighting demand estimated from approach 2. Inherent differences in the data, methodology and assumptions may have lead to different results. In approach 2, the Lighting demand in the residential sector is derived from mainly the connected load data which is surveyed by CEA.

The connected load information surveyed by CEA during the time of establishment of residential buildings may increase significantly with the increase in household income/expenditure. Therefore the actual load in the residential buildings in most of the cases may be greater than the connected load. Such cases can be seen from the Gujarat load research study by TERI, wherein average connected load per household was found in the range of 27%-75% of the actual load.

In contrast to the residential sector the reverse was found in the commercial sector, wherein the connected load exceeded the actual load in about 80% of the cities/towns covered under the study. The range of connected load varied between 105%-189% of the actual load.

Estimation of National lighting inventory / stock

The purpose of this task is to determine the total existing installed base of lighting inventory/stock in the country. This task initially requires a detailed analysis of the distribution of existing lighting inventory among different lighting technologies. This also signifies the penetration of various lighting technologies in the present day‟s lighting scenario which will play a key role in the forecasting of lighting demand and the development of key policies for further growth of the lighting industry.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Distribution of Power Consumption

Figure 6: Distribution of lighting load in residential buildings

Figure 7: Distribution of lighting load in commercial buildings

T12 tube light - magnetic choke 30% T12 tube light - electronic choke 4% T8 tube light - magnetic choke 11% T8 tube light - electronic choke 6% T5 tubelight 4% Incandescent lamps 25% CFL 20% LED 0%

Residential Buildings

T12 tube light - magnetic choke 25% T12 tube light - electronic choke 9% T8 tube light - magnetic choke 7% T8 tube light - electronic choke 11% T5 tubelight 6% Incandescen t lamps 4% CFL 38% LED 0%

Commercial Buildings

The three most useful sources of information for this purpose are: a recent load research report prepared by IRG/USAID in consultation with BEE in 2010, a load research survey conducted by TERI in the city of Delhi in 2007 and another load research study initiated by the Himachal Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (HPERC) in 2010. The first report has analysed the penetration of different lighting technologies from the survey of a sample of 400 residential households and 200 commercial establishments in the state of Gujarat. Among the different lighting technologies in the residential buildings, tube lights account for 55% of the lighting load followed by CFL (29%) and incandescent lamps (16%). In the commercial buildings, tube lights account for 58% of the lighting load followed by CFL (38%) and incandescent lamps (4%).

The load research study conducted by TERI was a case study approach in the city of Delhi for a sample of 1000 households in 2007. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the usage and ownership pattern of electrical appliances in the households. As per the findings of this study fluorescent tube lights account for 63% of the lighting load followed by incandescent bulbs (33%) and CFLs (4%).

In the state of Himachal Pradesh, recently a load research survey was undertaken by the state regulatory commission for development of a state wide DSM regulation. About 200 households and 100 commercial establishments have been surveyed for analysing the end use appliance consumption and load patterns. As per the findings of this study fluorescent tube lights account for 55% of the lighting load in the residential building sector followed by incandescent bulbs (28.7%) and CFLs (16.8%). In the commercial building sector fluorescent tube lights account for 64% of the lighting load followed by incandescent bulbs (3%) and CFLs (33%).

After reviewing all of the three relevant load research studies, the ECO III study in Gujarat and the load research study in Himachal Pradesh (HP) have proved as the most promising sources for information regarding penetration of lighting technologies with the latest information. For the residential sector, though TERI has analyzed the lighting distribution for a sample of 1000 households, the information presented is relatively old (2007). The lighting technology penetration (%) values derived from the Gujarat study may represent the economically developed states in the country where as the % penetration derived from the Himachal survey may represent the economically underdeveloped states. Further the estimation of national level lighting stock is derived from a weighted average % of penetration calculated based on the population of economically developed and underdeveloped states. The corresponding weights derived from the population in the states as per their economic development is 0.3 for the Gujarat study and 0.7 for the Himachal survey. For commercial buildings the findings of only Gujarat study has been considered. Figures-6&7 show the distribution of lighting stock in residential and commercial building sectors estimated as discussed.

The data from the above mentioned sources used in the calculation of lighting stock is illustrated in Tables - 13&14. The subsequent columns in these tables show the normal wattage per lamp and the total demand in kW for various lighting technologies. The wattage considered includes the losses in the ballast. The total stock of fixtures in the country is calculated based on the penetration levels and the total lighting demand in kW estimated for residential and commercial buildings in the previous sections.

In the residential buildings, a total of 992 million lighting fixtures have been estimated with 450 million stocks of CFLs, 406 million stocks of fluorescent Tube lights and 131 million stocks of incandescent lamps. In the commercial buildings category, a total of 398 million lighting fixtures have been estimated with 250 million stocks of CFLs, 138 million stocks of fluorescent Tube lights and 6 million stocks of incandescent lamps. Figure-8 shows the present national lighting stock of various technologies in these sectors.

Figure 8: National lighting stock in Millions

Further using the above estimated lighting inventory, this study applies average efficacies, wattages, and operating hours to convert the national lighting inventory into lumen-hours of lighting service in each sector (residential and commercial buildings). Subsequently holding the lumen demand per square meter constant within each sector, the lumen demand will be forecasted using the percentage change in square meters of floor area projected in the earlier sections.

Table 13: National lighting inventory in residential buildings

Technology General specification Share in load

Normal wattage per fixture (in watts)

National demand in kW Stock of fixtures (in millions) T12 tube light - magnetic choke

Single lamp with ballast -

4 feet

30.0%

52

9949183

191

T12 tube light - electronic choke

Single lamp with ballast -

4 feet

3.9%

43

1293394

30

T8 tube light - magnetic choke

Single lamp with ballast -

4 feet

10.9%

44

3614870

82

T8 tube light - electronic choke

Single lamp with ballast -

4 feet

5.9%

35

1956673

56

T5 tube light Single lamp with ballast

- 4 feet

3.9%

28

1293394

46

Incandescent General service lamp

24.9%

63

8256755

131

CFL Equivalent to 60 W

incandescent

20.4%

15

6771566

451

LED Equivalent to 60 W _incandescent

0.1%

9

33164

4

Total 100.0% 33,163,944 992 0 100 200 300 400 500 Residential buildings Commercial buildings

Table 14: National lighting inventory in Commercial buildings

Technology General specification Share in load

Normal wattage per fixture (in watts)

National demand in kW Stock of fixtures (in millions) T12 tube light - magnetic choke

Single lamp with ballast - 4 feet

25.0% 52 2500000 48

T12 tube light - electronic choke

Single lamp with ballast - 4 feet

9.0% 43 900000 21

T8 tube light - magnetic choke

Single lamp with ballast - 4 feet

7.0% 44 700000 16

T8 tube light - electronic choke

Single lamp with ballast - 4 feet

11.0% 35 1100000 31

T5 tube light Single lamp with ballast - 4 feet

6.0% 28 600000 21

Incandescent General service lamp 4.0% 63 400000 6

CFL Equivalent to 60 W incandescent 38.0% 15 3800000 253 LED Equivalent to 60 W incandescent 0.0% 9 4000 0.44 Total 100.0% 10000000 398

Lighting Inventory and Lumen demand projection

This analysis determines the present annual demand for lighting services (in teralumen-hours9_{) and then} groups this service by lighting technology. The baseline lighting demand is then divided by the total building floor space to ascertain the lighting demand per square metre of building space. Lighting demand per square metre is then held constant in each sector, and total national lumen demand is forecasted over the analysis period using floor space growth estimates for residential and commercial sectors.

This methodology has been adopted from a recent study by US department of energy in February 2010 „Energy savings potential of solid state lighting in general illumination‟.

Baseline lighting demand in lumen hours

For each of the lamp types, the lamp wattage by sector is multiplied by the estimated installed base of lamps and the annual operating hours. For fluorescent lamps, ballast losses are included with the lamp wattage estimate. This provides lighting system kilowatt hour (kWh) consumption per annum for the residential and commercial building sectors. These values are then multiplied by their respective light source efficacies, converting the national annual energy demand (in kWh) into an annual lighting service demand (in teralumen-hours). For example, if a residential dwelling consumed 100 kWh of electricity for general service incandescent lighting, this would be converted into 1300 kilo lumen-hours per year of lighting service. This result is found by multiplying 100 kWh of electricity consumption by 13 lumens per watt (lm/W), the estimated efficacy of a residential general service incandescent lamp. Often, higher incandescent wattage lamps of the same type have

9 _{Due to the magnitude of calculated national lumen demand, the notation “tera” is used, meaning 10E+12} (1,000,000,000,000) lumen-hours of annual lighting service.

higher efficacy ratings, and increasing wattages and efficacies will both contribute to greater annual lumens of service. Conversely, fluorescent lamps tend to have increasing efficacy at lower wattages.

Table 15: Estimation of baseline teralumen-hours of annual lighting service in residential buildings

Technology National demand (in kW) No. of fixtures in the country (in millions) Hours of use per day Lamp lumen efficacy (in lm/W) Annual lighting demand (in Teralumen-hrs) T12 tube light - magnetic choke

9949183

191

5 65

1180

T12 tube light - electronic choke

1293394

30

5 75

177

T8 tube light - magnetic choke

3614870

82

5 85

561

T8 tube light - electronic choke

1956673

56

5 95

339

T5 tube light

1293394

46

5 105

248

Incandescent lamps

8256755

131

3 13

118

CFL

6771566

451

3.7 60

549

LED

33164

4

3 100

4

Total 33163944 992

3175

Tables-15 & 16 present the data used for the various lighting technologies in the baseline inventory. The average operating hours and lamp efficacy are primarily extracted from the LBNL study 2010, TERI load research study 2007, US DoE 2010 and some stakeholder consultations and also through significant secondary research from major lamp manufacturer catalogues. A total of 4824 teralumen-hours of annual lighting service has been estimated in the residential & commercial buildings in the country.

The teralumen-hours of lighting service calculated has been further classified and apportioned into three technology bins. The technology bins are created to group together the annual lighting demand according to the lighting service quality. Table-16 shows the baseline annual lighting service demand estimated for the grouped technology bins.

Table 16: Estimation of baseline teralumen-hours of annual lighting service in commercial buildings

Technology National demand (in kW) No. of fixtures in the country (in millions) Hours of use per day Lamp lumen efficacy (in lm/W) Annual lighting demand (in Teralumen-hrs) T12 tube light - magnetic choke 2500000 48 8 65 475 T12 tube light - electronic choke 900000 21 8 75 197 T8 tube light - magnetic choke 700000 16 8 85 174

T8 tube light - electronic choke 1100000 31 8 95 305 T5 tube light 600000 21 8 105 184 Incandescent lamps 400000 6 3 14 6 CFL 3800000 253 3.7 60 308 LED 4000 0.44 _{3 100} 0.44 Total 10000000 398 1649

Table 17: Baseline annual lighting service in teralumen-hours for 2011

Technology Bin Incandescent Fluorescent Compact

fluorescent LED Total

Residential buildings 117.53 2505.10 548.70 3.63 3175

Commercial buildings 6.13 1334.44 307.91 0.44 1649

Total 123.67 3839.54 856.61 4.07 4824

National lumen demand projection

The lumen-hour demand calculated by sector and technology bin is projected over the analysis period to estimate the growth in lighting demand between 2011 and 2031. The lumen-hour demand calculated in 2011 is divided by the cumulative national floor space for each sector to determine a lumen-hour of lighting demand per square metre of building space. Then, the projections for square feet of building growth by sector are used to project the lumen-hour demand from 2011 to 2031, holding the lumen intensity per square metre constant. This assumption is based on the premise that in the future, people occupying a space will continue to expect today‟s luminance levels and duration of service. For the residential sector, the annual lighting demand in 2011 is approximately 331 kilo lumen-hours per square metre while for the commercial secto