People & Machine Collaboration?

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People & Machine

Collaboration?

Year of Autonomy 2017

Richard Westgarth BEng

CEng MIET FRINA

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Agenda

• Introduction

• A changing world

• Emerging and disruptive

technologies

• Industry 4.0

• What about the people

• Challenges

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A Changing World

• Changing balance of power and global

economics

• New and emerging threats to security and

safety

• Proliferation of consumer technologies with

Low cost of entry

• Global changes to trade and business and

disruptive business models

• Engineering Resources and Skills

1, 2

– Need 182,000 engineers per year to 2022

– Annual shortfall of 55,000 skilled workers.

• Productivity

3 tablet

40%

smartphone

mobile phone

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION IN US

telephone

10

20

30 40 yrs

10%

Source: MIT and OPA

1 _{Engineering UK Report 2016}

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Emerging and disruptive technologies

• Consumer R&D budgets (in the order of

$1.62Trillion pa)

4 • Autonomy and AI

• Information explosion and data analytics

• Cyber Systems

• Biotech

• Additive Manufacturing

4

_{Batelle, 2014Global R&D Funding Forecast}

http://www.battelle.org/docs/tpp/2014_global_rd_funding_for

ecast.pdf

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Industry 4.0

• The fourth industrial revolution

– 1700 – 1800

Steam and propulsion

– 1800 – mid 1900s

Mass Production

– 1960’s- - 2000

Computers and digital

– 2000 - ?

Cyber Systems / AI / IOT

• Driven by technology – digitisation

• Catalysing new business models and

competitors

• New currencies

• New businesses and Supply Chains

• Gig Economies

• Manufacturing technologies

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Future of Work Trends

• Demographic change

– Ageing workforce and multi generational working (18 to 80)

– 90% increase in the 50+ segment

• Changing work environments

– Virtualisation and flexibility

– Mobility

• New business ecosystems

– Networks and collaboration

– The gig economy

• Digitalisation

– Digital solutions and advanced manufacturing

• Two tiered labour market

– High skilled minority versus low skilled and the decline of

middle ground jobs

– High skilled jobs account for 70% of employment rise

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Levels of Autonomy

7 Remote control

(All control by human operator)

Permissive

(UMV asks for permission)

Declarational

(UMV declares intention)

Reportive

(UMV reports action)

Autonomous

(UMV does not report)

1 Human operated

2 Human directed

3 Human delegated

4 Human monitored

5 Autonomous

Operator

UMV

Control level

Description

Turn to new course

I would like to turn to new course

I will now turn to new course

I have now turned to new course Go ahead / No go / <silent>

No go / <silent>

6 Manager

Vessel manages Human

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So let’s not forget the people

• Changing nature of workforce and use of AI / robotics

– RAS is forcing change to existing structures, people, career paths

– Increasing number of non-standard jobs

– New people /machine transactions (Cobots), AI / Robot as a manager

– Governance of Robotics / AI (WEF Global Risk Report 2017) 46.3% respondents

believe we need better Governance

• Role of the People

– Have we addressed the real challenges: trust, cooperation, emotional intelligence

– Cognitive bias – in developing systems?

– Why do we work?

• Will need to address training and development

– Creating the required new skills and organisations and demographics

– What about the education system – exploit human capabilities such as creativity

• What workforce do we need?

“Advances in robotics and AI also hold the potential to

reshape, fundamentally the way we live and work”

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A final thought

We are very focussed on the technology, have we

focussed enough on the problems it can solve and as a

technology community can we make the socio-economic

case for RAS

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Richard Westgarth

QinetiQ

[email protected]

+44 (0)7881 500776