Transit Planning Practice in the Age of Transit-Oriented Development

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Portland State University

PDXScholar

TREC Friday Seminar Series Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC)

4-11-2014

Transit Planning Practice in the Age of Transit-Oriented Development

Ian Carlton

Ian Carlton Research & Consulting

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Recommended Citation

Carlton, Ian, "Transit Planning Practice in the Age of Transit-Oriented Development" (2014). TREC Friday Seminar Series. 31. http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/trec_seminar/31

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IAN CARLTON 2014

Ian Carlton Research & Consulting

Helping turn visions of sustainable urban development into reality

www.IanCarlton.com | 404.803.0025 | Ian@IanCarlton.com

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IAN CARLTON 2014

Theoretical TOD implementation process

TOD Delivery PreDev Infrastructure Investment Land Use Planning District Planning Transit Project Delivery Transit System Planning Regional Planning Statewide Planning 2

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How have fixed-guideway transit investments

been planned with TOD in mind?

TOD Delivery PreDev Infrastructure Investment Land Use Planning District Planning Transit Project Delivery Transit System Planning Regional Planning Statewide Planning 3

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Literature on U.S. transit investments’

influence on real estate development

1. Numerous necessary conditions for transit investments to

influence real estate development outcomes

• e.g., Knight and Trygg 1977, Loukaitou-Sideris and Banerjee 2000, Cervero et al 2004

2. Transit investments’ impact on markets and real estate

development modest in most locations given U.S. context

• e.g., Myer and Gomez-Ibanez 1981, Cervero and Landis 1995, Giuliano and Agarwal 2010

3. Development has occurred when stations were located where

real estate investment was allowed and financially feasible

(in some cases, transit catalyzed critical land use policy changes)

• e.g., Knight 1980, Cervero et al 2004, Giuliano 2011

4. The potential for station area real estate development is best

understood at a site-specific scale

• e.g., Knight and Trygg 1977, Porter 1997, Giuliano and Agarwal 2010

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Image source: Mithun

Practitioners’ TOD theories may contribute to

ineffective and inefficient transit planning

Complexities of real estate development potential

can be addressed in the transit planning process

Transit plans have been modified to foster TOD

but costs have not consistently yielded benefits

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Planning Transit for TOD

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Interviewees

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Professional experiences

Interviewees that

contributed

relevant data

Transit project planning

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Transit system planning

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Land use planning

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Federal transit policymaking/implementation

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Travel demand modeling

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Real estate services

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Transportation and land use advocacy

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Non-transit transport planning

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“Transit investments are a precursor and

catalyst for sustainable urban development”

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TOD-related planning process and

project design impacts

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2

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Image source: Google

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Image source: Google

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Image sources Dan Haneckow via www.urbanindy.com

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Portland’s South-North Light Rail

Alternatives

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Interstate Ave

1. Fewer takings 2. Better perceived safety

3. Fewer I-5 risks 4. More economic

development -

TOD

I-5 right of way

1. Lower capital cost 2. Faster travel times 3. Closer to trip generators 4. More riders 5. Lower operating costs 6. Fewer business impacts 7. Reduced highway externalities 8. No TIF funds

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I-5 Alignment

Interstate Avenue Alignment

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Portland’s South-North Light Rail

Alternatives

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I-5 Alignment

Interstate Avenue Alignment

Killingsworth Street

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Theories of practice

inform (in)effectiveness

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Transit planners’ real estate

development-related theories-of-practice

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Doug

Lauren

Stan

Image source: USGBC, LA Metro, Bay Area Economics, CTOD

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Planners’ learning loop is incomplete

Transit planners rely on real estate

theories Planners establish high development expectations Planners support costly transit elements Investors assess real estate development Developers pass on investment options Planners lament shortfall in real estate investment Planners reflect on/improve real estate theories 19

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Planners’ learning loop is incomplete

Transit planners rely on real estate

theories Planners establish high development expectations Planners support costly transit elements Investors assess real estate development Developers pass on investment options Planners lament shortfall in real estate investment 20 Rationalization

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Why are planners unreflective about their

real estate-related theories-of-practice?

Strategic

misrepresentation

• Pickrel 1992, Flyvbjerg et al 2003

Implementation / rent

seeking success

• Hamer 1976, Schon 1983

Unquestioned norms

• Kuhn 1977, Argyris and Schon 1974

Public policies

cement/validate norms

• Yanow 2000

Professional self-image

• Baum 1983, Eraut 1994, Brinkman 2003

Wicked Problems

• Rittel and Webber 1973, Argyris and Schon 1974

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Federal transit funding policies do not

evaluate real estate as developers do

Economic

Development Score – “Future Land Use” Transit Supportive

Plans and Policies Growth Management

Transit Supportive Corridor Policies Supportive Zoning

Tools to Implement Plans and Policies

Performance and Impact of Plans and

Policies

Cases of Development

Station Area Development Proposals Adaptability of Station Land Corridor Economic Environment

Affordable Housing

Need and Supply

Adopted Tools and Strategies Evidence of Developer Activity Support for Very/Extremely Low Income

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Change federal evaluations of sustainable

real estate development potential

Applicants describe developments

that they anticipate within five years

& why they’re expected

Employ panel of real estate

professionals to review applications

Reward applicants for anticipated

development determined to be

credible

Conduct ex-post evaluations

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DEFINING TOD OPPORTUNITY

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Research  Practice

Consulting experiences

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ULI’s TOD reality-check altered Southwest

LRT alignment in Minnesota

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Development potential informed Federal

Boulevard station location preference

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DEFINING TOD OPPORTUNITY

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Figure

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