HO
CH
IM
IN
H
CI
TY
INT
ERNATION
AL
U
NIV
ER
SIT
Y
• HCM - IU •
INTERNSHIP REPORT
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
BITEXCO BUILDING, 7th FLOOR
19-22 NGUYEN HUE STR, DIST. 1, HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
INTERN: TRAN QUANG NGAN
at Position Retail Intern
SUPERVISED BY: Mr. DALE WATKINS
Commercial Leasing Manager
and Ms. DANG THI THU HUONG
Junior Retail Leasing Executive
PERIOD: 90 Working Days
May, 6th 2012 - September, 4th 2012
HO
CH
IM
IN
H
CI
TY
INT
ERNATION
AL
U
NIV
ER
SIT
Y
• HCM - IU •
TABLE OF CONTENT
Contents
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
II. INTERNSHIP CERTIFICATION
4
III. COLLIER INTERNATIONAL
6
1. INTRODUCTION
6
2. HISTORY
7
3. ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
8
4. COMPANY SERVICES
10
IV. INTERNSHIP ACTIVITIES
12
1. JOB DESCRIPTION
12
2. ACTIVITIES
12
3. THE RETAIL SERVICES
16
V. SUGGESTIONS FOR THE THESIS TOPIC
16
VI. ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNSHIP
17
HO
CH
IM
IN
H
CI
TY
INT
ERNATION
AL
U
NIV
ER
SIT
Y
• HCM - IU •
This report is to hand in the School of Business Administration of International University. The report described as my assignment, and is one of the proof of for the internship period that show what I did, what I achieved, though about...
In term of Summer Semester Internship
• Fulltime Internship from: 05/06/2012 - 04/09/2012 • At Position: Retail Intern
• With Job description:
- Identifying potential sites to include in our retail property database by visiting city neighborhoods - Working with landlords to acquire information pertaining to sites in our retail property database - Working with various retail tenants to research movements in the retail market
- Conducting general research relating to the retail market
- Assisting in administrative tasks to support the retail department
- Assisting with general marketing and PR related activities to support the retail department
Supervisors:
Mr. DALE WATKINS
Commercial Leasing Manager
Mob: +84 903 332 193 [email protected]
and Ms. DANG THI THU HUONG
Junior Retail Leasing Executive Mob: +84 989 230 232
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
HO
CH
IM
IN
H
CI
TY
INT
ERNATION
AL
U
NIV
ER
SIT
Y
• HCM - IU •
II. INTERNSHIP CERTIFICATION
Comments of Supervisor: ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Mr. Dale Watkins
HO
CH
IM
IN
H
CI
TY
INT
ERNATION
AL
U
NIV
ER
SIT
Y
• HCM - IU •
Comments of Supervisor: ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Ms. Dang Thi Thu Huong Junior Leasing Executive
Colliers International is a leading global real estate services organisation defined by our spirit of enterprise. Through our culture of service excellence and a shared sense of initia-tive, we have integrated the resources of real estate specialists worldwide to accelerate the success of our clients.
Colliers’ headquarters in Seattle, Washington and more than 512 offices worldwide share a common brand and vision to provide the best service experience available.
Most commercial real estate firms are either loose networks of variously owned companies, or a tightly controlled cor-porate structure. Colliers International has created a unique operating model, combining the power and accountability of a global enterprise with local equity and flexibility. We are backed by the financial strength of FirstService Corp., a strong, diversified capital partner, allowing us to invest in ma-jor client resources.
Colliers International is one of the first truly global commercial real estate organisations, formed more than 30 years ago as a network of independent firms. This collaboration pro-vided clients with expert local real estate knowledge around the world.
• Colliers again makes the International Association of Outstanding Professionals - Global Outsourcing 100 list.
• Colliers combines operations with FirstService Real Estate Advisors, forming the 3rd largest global real estate services company.
Colliers refreshes its visual identity and logo, adopts the tagline "Accelerating Success". • Colliers grows hospitality and project management services with acquisitions of PKF Hospitality Research, MHPM Project Managers and Roberts Weaver Group.
• Business name: Colliers International • Address: Bitexco Building, F7
19-23 Nguyen Hue, Dist. 1, HCMC • Phone: +84 8 3827 5665 • Email: [email protected] • Website: http://www.colliers.com 2011 2010 2007
1. INTRODUCTION
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL AT A GLANCE*¤154
B
IN TRANSACTION VALUE OVER LAST 3 YEARS15,000
PROFESSIONALS¤1.8
B
IN ANNUAL REVENUE1250
M
SQUARE METERS UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT
522
OFFICES62
COUNTRIES *BASED ON 2011 RESULTSIII. COLLIER INTERNATIONAL
7
INTERNSHIP REPORT
• Colliers MN launches the Global Strategic Plan and incorporates the tagline "Our Knowl-edge is your Property".• First Service Real Estate becomes a majority shareholder of Colliers MN, providing equity to expand the business.
• Colliers MN acquires the remaining 50% share of Colliers Jardine and the combined group takes on the name Colliers International, although it retains the trading name CMN to distinguish itself from other independent members of the global Colliers network. Doug Frye becomes CEO of Colliers MN. Frye becomes only the 6th CEO in more than 100 years of operation.
Colliers MN shifts the global head office to Seattle. • Revenues top $1 billion for the first time
• Colliers MN continues expansion into Eastern Europe. Colliers MN surpasses $100 million in revenue.
• Colliers expands into emerging markets including Central Europe and Latin America • Asia Pacific grows operations to 20 markets
• US and Canada join Colliers
• MNM and Colliers International form an alliance under the leadership of John Mc.Lernon. • The firm reports revenue of $4.5 million.
• MNM opens offices in Edmonton and Seattle. By the end of 1978, MNM has 11 offices and 360 employees in Canada and the U.S. 1977.
John McLernon becomes president and chief executive officer of MNM in Vancouver. • Several successful property companies merge and take the name of their mentor, Ronald Collier, a Chartered Surveyor who was instrumental in the development of the profession in Australia.
Colliers Property Consultants rapidly grows throughout the Asia Pacific and Canada on an independently owned, referral network platform. 1957.
• J.P. Nicolls dies at age 87, completing 57 years of service to the firm. Dean Mansell be-comes President of MNM. Dean also served on the Canadian Association of Real Estate Boards and as president of the Vancouver Real Estate Board.
• Macaulay dies and J.P. Nicolls becomes the firm's second president. • MNM and Company post a profit of $57,000.
• The firm incorporates and Charles Macaulay is named its first president.
• Ronald Maitland, who joined the firm as a clerk in 1904, becomes a partner and the firm becomes Macaulay Nicolls Maitland (MNM).
• Macaulay Nicolls registers in the province of British Columbia, Canada – currently the 13th oldest registered company.
2005 2004 2002 2001 1995 1990 1986 1985 1984 1979 1978 1976 1957 1932 1927 1926 1922 1898
2. HISTORY
GENERAL DIRECTOR Peter Dinning
FINANCE – ADMINISTRATION CFO - Office Manager
Thoa Le General Accountant Hien Ho Payable Accounant Huy Dang HR-Admin Thao Nguyen IT Manager Tri Phan Driver Cuong Driver Tanh MANAGING DIRECTOR Peter Small RETAIL SERVICES Leasing Manager Dale Watkins Leasing Executive Huong Dang Retail Interns Tung Nguyen ail Interns Tung Nguyen terns Tung Nguyen Retail Interns Ngan Tran INDUSTRIAL SERVICES Senior Leasing Executive Rose Quan Junior Leasing Executive Xuyen Phan RESIDENTIAL SERVICES Senior Leasing Manager Rose Quan Leasing Executive Dung Doan Leasing Executive Khanh Tran Leasing Executive Ha Pham Leasing Executive Hien Nguyen OFFICE SERVICES Landlord Representation BFT Leasing Manager Dale Watkins Senior Leasing Executive Dong Nguyen Leasing Executive Vy Tran KAP Senior Leasing Executive Dong Nguyen REE Tower Leasing Executive Hung Le PVGasTower Leasing Executive Huong Dang Tenant Representation Senior Leasing Executive Rose Quan Leasing Executive Huong Le REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT SERVICES KAP Property Director Norm Kisken Property Manager Sinh Vuong REE/Etown PropertyDirector David Jackson Asst Property Manager Thuy Dinh IPC Property Manager Quang Dang Secretary Thao Nguyen INVESTMENT SERVICES Investment Services Manager Hieu Do
RESEARCH, VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES Associate Director Renee Kha RESEARCH SERVICES Research Manager Giang Nguyen Researcher Nhu Dinh VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES Finance Analyst Manager Thuy Vo (Maternity Leave) Financial Analyst Yen Pham Financial Analyst Nam Nguyen Valuer-Team Leader Thuy Phan Mortgage Valuer Hung Le Valuation Interns Trung Nguyen Valuation Interns Hien Tran
3. ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
9
INTERNSHIP REPORT
GENERAL DIRECTORPeter Dinning
FINANCE – ADMINISTRATION CFO - Office Manager
Thoa Le General Accountant Hien Ho Payable Accounant Huy Dang HR-Admin Thao Nguyen IT Manager Tri Phan Driver Cuong Driver Tanh MANAGING DIRECTOR Peter Small RETAIL SERVICES Leasing Manager Dale Watkins Leasing Executive Huong Dang Retail Interns Tung Nguyen ail Interns Tung Nguyen terns Tung Nguyen Retail Interns Ngan Tran INDUSTRIAL SERVICES Senior Leasing Executive Rose Quan Junior Leasing Executive Xuyen Phan RESIDENTIAL SERVICES Senior Leasing Manager Rose Quan Leasing Executive Dung Doan Leasing Executive Khanh Tran Leasing Executive Ha Pham Leasing Executive Hien Nguyen OFFICE SERVICES Landlord Representation BFT Leasing Manager Dale Watkins Senior Leasing Executive Dong Nguyen Leasing Executive Vy Tran KAP Senior Leasing Executive Dong Nguyen REE Tower Leasing Executive Hung Le PVGasTower Leasing Executive Huong Dang Tenant Representation Senior Leasing Executive Rose Quan Leasing Executive Huong Le REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT SERVICES KAP Property Director Norm Kisken Property Manager Sinh Vuong REE/Etown PropertyDirector David Jackson Asst Property Manager Thuy Dinh IPC Property Manager Quang Dang Secretary Thao Nguyen INVESTMENT SERVICES Investment Services Manager Hieu Do
RESEARCH, VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES Associate Director Renee Kha RESEARCH SERVICES Research Manager Giang Nguyen Researcher Nhu Dinh VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES Finance Analyst Manager Thuy Vo (Maternity Leave) Financial Analyst Yen Pham Financial Analyst Nam Nguyen Valuer-Team Leader Thuy Phan Mortgage Valuer Hung Le Valuation Interns Trung Nguyen Valuation Interns Hien Tran
Colliers International offers a comprehensive portfolio of real estate services to occupiers, owners and investors on a local, regional, national and international basis.
The services that Colliers provide: • Tenant Representati on
• Landlord Representation • Real Estate Management • Investm ent Servic es
• Valuatiaon and Advisory Services • Marketing Advisory
• Legal Advisory
4. COMPANY SERVICES
Colliers tenant representation teams are experts at crafting real estate strategies to suite current and future needs including: • Guide stakeholders through the selection process;
• Provide in-depth analysis of market conditions and trends to ensure the best possible lease/purchase choice is made;
• Identify potential hurdles and top tenant mistakes to keep your relocation or renewal process on target with minimal disruption to your business and productivity.
Tenant Representation
Landlord leasing teams provide a clear overview of competing properties and market trends. The easing specialists help to: • Identify competitive advantages and opportunities for improve-ment;
• Create a specific go-to-market strategy tailored to your business needs;
• Apply best-in-class marketing tools to segmented targets and generate strong interest and feedback from prospects.
Landlord Representation
While most firms just quantify asset value on a balance sheet, Col-liers take into account factors such as tenant loyalty, the relation-ship and regular contact between managers and tenants, top ten-ant service requests and new opportunities for mutually beneficial tenant collaboration. These factors are proven to add asset value over time by reducing turnover and operational costs and improv-ing a buildimprov-ing’s reputation in the market.
11
INTERNSHIP REPORT
Investment Services We work with national and global institutions and investors to
identify, evaluate and select assets that best complement their portfolio, property performance, income goals, and risk profile. This often requires complex analysis and innovative thinking to provide a defensible, well-researched strategy for asset acquisition Our ability to provide a professional and accurate property valu-ation relies on a combinvalu-ation of the professionalism and special-ized training of our valuers, compliance with the International Valuation Standards and RICS standards, and the high quality of available market data. Continuous market research programs give us an abundance of market knowledge and allow us to provide a high level of service.
The accuracy and preciseness of value estimates is ensured via the use of specialized valuations software. For clients’ convenience all work files and reports are uploaded on a virtual data room.
We are experienced in the valuation of a wide range of property types across all of Southeast Europe. Every valuation made by Colliers International meets the highest international standard. Valuation and Advisory Services
Once you’ve entrusted us with your business, Colliers will exe-cute a detailed marketing strategy based on your targeted goals for the property. Our integrated approach to property marketing includes considering the entire go-to-market cycle: targeting the right audience, positioning the property, developing the creative materials and timing the sale or lease.
Marketing Advisory
No matter whether a retail, office, industrial or residential project – operational or under development - legal team will provide sup-port in drawing up tenant relations agreements, and subsequently supporting the property management process. Colliers also offers legal services in various processes such as real estate acquisition and disposal, condominium ownership matters, planning docu-mentation such as construction permits and licenses, legally bind-ing agreements with subcontractors, financial institutions and partners, title and land registration, and insurance.
IV. INTERNSHIP ACTIVITIES
The intern position is much different than my friends also said: “You will apply to intern at a company. The company there will accept a very best student and provide them a seat on the company. Day by day, you will seat there at watch a lot of news and waiting for the end of the day in boring. Sometimes you will watch out other people who will call you for a cup of tea, typing, photocopying and some kind of jobs that do not need a best student.
So, very negative thinking I have up to now. I don’t have to seat day by day, I don’t have to wait for somebody to call me for photocopying or typing. I spent almost my time to “explore”. I mean explore the job, explore the knowledge of Real estate, explore the city and some kind of master plan that I ever do.
The job description that I had in the requirement is below:
Retail Interns will be responsible for assisting the Commercial Leasing Manager and Retail Leasing Executives in daily tasks including, but not limited to:
• Identifying potential sites to include in our retail property database by visiting city neighborhoods • Working with landlords to acquire information pertaining to sites in our retail property database • Working with various retail tenants to research movements in the retail market
• Conducting general research relating to the retail market
• Assisting in administrative tasks to support the retail department
• Assisting with general marketing and PR related activities to support the retail department
1. JOB DESCRIPTION
2. ACTIVITIES
2.1 District Site Research:
Research on the potential site such as Dist. 1, 3, 10, 5 and some other place that the tenant want to build up a brand name or want to broaden the market such as: KFC, Lotte,…
The site is a resident house face of the street. The house they are living in has more than 1 floor that they want to rent the ground space to have more money, or they just build the house for rent. The broker of my company will travel around the area (district) to collect the data about the rental house.
The data that we want to collect is: Address, Phone number, size of the space for rent, the price for rent (a month) and the commission fee (amount of money that the landlord agree to pay for the agent for them to introduce somebody to rent)
The data we collect will sum up in database and archive. The customer will contact Colliers for helping them to find the area that satisfies them. For Example:
MARKET OVERVIEW
In 2Q 2012, the total retail supply is recorded at 727,900 sq m, up 12% q-o-q. The leading suppliers are shopping centres and supermarkets.
Primary areas for large scale retail development in Ho Chi Minh City are District 1, District 7 and Tan Binh District which will introduce approximately 320,000 sq m to the market. Also, thereare new and planning projects located in District 2.
13
INTERNSHIP REPORT
MARKET OPERATIONHCMC’s retail market is facing competitive pressure to attract tenants. Some developers are now offering lower rents and more incentives to attract tenants. The average occupancy rate in 2Q 2012 was approxi-mately 84%, down by 7 percentage points q-o-q. The highest occupancy rate is recorded for department store at 99%, an increase of 1 percentage point q-o-q. Retail podiums overall reached onlya 68% occupancy rate.
The average rents for shopping centres, retail podi-ums and department stores are recorded at US$64/ sq m/month, a significant decrease of approximately 9% y-o-y due to the lower rents of retail centres in the non-CBD districts. However, retail spaces in prime locations still command rents over US$100/sq m/ month. Many retailers have offered promotions such as discounted pricing, additional promotional prod-ucts, etc in order to encourage consumers.
Total retail sales of goods and services of Ho Chi Minh City only increased by 8.9% y-o-y.
OUTLOOK
In 2H 2012, approximately 150,000 sq m of retail space is expected to enter the market, equivalent to 20% of total current supply. New retail project devel-opment located in fringe areas of CBD such as Pico Plaza (Tan Binh District) and Pandora City (Tan Phu District) will provide 94,000 sq m, accounting for 62% total new supply of 2012.
Vietnam has dropped out of the top 30 in the Glob-al ReGlob-al Estate Development Index produced by A.T.Kearney due to inadequate infrastructure and high rentals. However, Vietnam still has a certain at-tractiveness owing to the current size of market as well as growth potential, especially among the large young population.
2.2 Office Tenant Research:
Research from about 40 offices building in the area of Ho Chi Minh City for a database of tenant inside the Building.
The research includes all of the company on every floor of the Building. The, from the specific floor, I estimate or calculate the area (the square meter) that the tenant agree to rent in that building. For that reason, Colliers will know about the rental rate of that building (Tenant Representation will find out the rate) and the tenant area. So, when the agreement of the tenant with the Office Tower Management is end, Colliers will ask them to find another office area. If they agree, we will find for them the building that they satisfy.
Some of the Office Tower that I’ve done so far: Saigon Center, Saigon Tower, Central Plaza, Diamond Plaza… So, with our research about Office Tenant, the Research Department came up some data below
MARKET OVERVIEW
The total office supply in HCMC was approximately 1.3 million sq m NFA from 164 office buildings. The downward trend in rental rate is continuing to create more pressure for the developers.
Most office buildings in the CBD and non-CBD of-fered promotions, free rent for the first two or three months of new leasing contracts, flexible leasing term, concessions on parking, signage provisions and services in order to attract tenants.
MARKET OPERATION
The average rents across all grades, exclusive of ser-vice charge and VAT tax, was US$20/ sq m/ month in 2Q 2012. The average occupancy was recorded at 88.2%, a decrease by 2 percentage points q-o-q. Grade B and C office buildings achieved average oc-cupancy rates of 88% and 89%, respectively. The av-erage rents were at US$20 & US$16.3/ sq m/ month for grade B and C respectively.
v
In the second half of 2012, HCMC’s market will re-alize approximately 65,000 sq m GFA of office space from 6 projects within 2h 2012, which could contin-ue to put pressure on the occupancy rate and rents. The new supply is expected from The President Place, Times Square, Le Meridien and HMTC. District 1 accounts for 45% oftotal future supply in HCMC up to the period of 2016.
15
INTERNSHIP REPORT
2.3 The Master Planning Project:
To study about the Ho Chi Minh city Master Planning that comes to build and finish up to 2020. Colliers re-search about the Master Planning that help us to know whether the City want to develop the infrastructure. Those of the Master Planning for example:
- The Metro-line 1,2,3,4,5,6: The Metro station underground at Ben Thanh. Those infrastructure will help the City to open up another transportation and reduce the traffic-jams.
- The Highway Ho Chi Minh City – Long Thanh – Dau Giay: 55% of the highway is complete. Then we have the very straight way from Dong Nai to Ho Chi Minh city, they will contribute to the traffic and help us to reduce the time travel from Dong Nai to Ho Chi Minh
- The Long Thanh Airport: Ho Chi Minh city plan to build the International Airport that will help the Tan Son Nhat to broaden the scale…And a lot of plan that we collected. The data collect include the cost, investor, loca-tion, scale and some information.
Cost
932,4 million USD
o ODA of JICA: 516,5 mil USD
o OCR of ADB: 410,2 mil USD
Construction Stage: 55% Locations
o District 2, Dist.9 of HCM
o Long Thanh, Nhon Trach,
Cam My Thong Nhat of Dong Nai Area/Scale
o Length: 55km
o Velocity: 100-120km/h
Completion date: In waiting for In-vestment of the final route
17
INTERNSHIP REPORT
In the problem above, we try to satisfy the customer. When we choose the retail site, we must know whether the site is suitable or not. For example, when we find the site for customer who business is fastfood, we must know the location and become advantage for them to do business. Then the topic I would like to research is:• Factors that affect people in decision to choose location in starting or expanding the market of Fast food product.
V. SUGGESTIONS FOR THE THESIS TOPIC
3. THE RETAIL SERVICES
The Retail Team in the organizational structure includes me and my friend and our 2 supervisors. The retail team is another part of the Leasing Service that will take care of the requirement from the customers. The cus-tomers do not want an office area because they are a business, showroom that need a place face to the street, for example, KFC, Lotte, Pizza hut…they need an area that will attract the people and easy to use their product. The problem of the retail department is to find the location that suitable for customer in a suitable location, a reasonable price and effective area that make their business run smooth. However, follow the Ho Chi Minh City Master Planning, we try to identify the potential site and area that come with the traffic. When their is a plan to complete for example, the Highway station, Central business...there are a very attractive area that cus-tomers and also the resident prefer.
So, to identify the potential site and prove for the customer the importance of that site, we must have a plan to do that.
VI. ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNSHIP
1. What skills and qualifications you think that you have gained from the internship?
The day I intern at the Colliers Company, I have tried a lot to adapt with the jobs here, very urgent job. So, what I’ve learnt is to practice to be on time, that’s what sometime I lack of. I perceive that to work in the environment of business, the importance is not only I done the project before deadline, but also i must be on time.
However, to complete any project before deadline, the second thing is important to, that is you must arrange the level, the size of the small part of project. So, when you finish arranging the work, you will complete it in the shorter time. That’s why sometimes I think that I cannot do that project in the given time, but actually I can do it may be shorter time.
2. What kind of responsibilities you have undertaken during the internship period?
In the internship time, I realize that I joined in a lot of project and try to do as an official staff of Colliers. That’s mean I’m not an internship student that can do some small job which is not important. Some projects that I joined in, they are a part of the large project that the company carry out, for example:
- Office tenant research
- Japanese company in Vietnam Project
- Ho Chi Minh Master Planning Project
So, I think that the company, also my supervisors they give me and my internship friend a chance to do the real work. Therefore, the responsibilities of me I think it’s not for an internship student, It’s the same as the staff of the company.
2. How do you think the internship will influence your future career plans?
When I decide to apply to Colliers to intern here, I don’t think that I will work a lot like that. The real estate knowledge is very new and surprise. Sometimes I think the jobs that refer to Real estate is so hard and I always in a rush-hour. There’s some day I came back home and feel very tired, and sick also. But I’m not giving up. I try and try. So, when the time to internship here ran out, I feel very normal about the jobs I had done. I think that when I practice to work at Colliers, I will very strong and active. So, now I like to be challenged. It seems like real estate for whatever job I do that’s not a problem of hard or difficult. As the job of Office Tenant Research, the first time I’m very nervous, later I feel that so easy.
3. How do you think the internship activities that you carried out are correlated with your classroom knowledge?
So, I think it’s just a little bit help with the knowledge in the book. When I apply to Colliers, I have no knowl-edge that referred or correlated to my classroom knowlknowl-edge and real estate. But, I learned a lot when I’m in the real life, real work. My classroom knowledge is so boring. Some knowledge in the book is so theoretical, we learn and learn and to understand a lot. But in the real life, business has no specific theory. The book is somehow like a solution book to the present situation. You just study and study that solution, you know how to face with that problem, but you don’t know the problem is changing and it will much more different when you know the solution. So, business is not Math. They do not have any one-immortal-principle. You better look from inside the business into what you want to learn.
19
INTERNSHIP REPORT
VII. REFERENCE
• Colliers International. [About Us]. Retrieved August 20, 2012, from: http://www.colliers.com • Colliers International. [Home Page]. Retrieved August 20, 2012, from: http://www.colliers.com • Colliers International Vietnam Research Forecast Report 2Q2012 ENG (2012), P.8-12.