BLACK FRIDAY & CYBER WEEKEND

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BLACK FRIDAY &

CYBER WEEKEND

Recap of Past Years + Consumer Intentions for 2021

2021 PREVIEW REPORT

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Numerator’s 2021 Cyber Weekend preview combines a look back at past Black Fridays and Cyber Weekends with a look forward at how consumers are thinking about this year’s weekend of sales. It leverages a custom survey of over 1,000 individuals who typically participate in Black Friday / Cyber Weekend shopping, and also pulls from Numerator Insights, TruView, Promotions and Advertising data.

SECTIONS:

2021 Intentions Survey Page 3

Years in Review: The Cyber Shift Page 12 Promo & Advertising Trends Page 16

NUMERATOR CYBER WEEKEND PREVIEW

WHAT’S

INCLUDED?

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HOW WILL CONSUMERS SHOP CYBER WEEKEND 2021?

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WHO SHOPS ON BLACK FRIDAY & CYBER WEEKEND?

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Overall, nearly half of US consumers say they typically shop the weekend of Black Friday / Cyber Monday. This varies slightly by region, with Midwest shoppers more likely to participate and Southern shoppers less likely. Individuals who are vaccinated

against COVID-19 are also more likely to have participated in the past than those who don’t plan to get the vaccine.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 (n=5,092)

Of the following upcoming fall & winter holidays/events, which do you typically celebrate/participate in? – “Black Friday / Cyber Monday”

48.8%

^49.5%

50.0%

47.7%

49.1% 49.5%

47.0%

Total Northeast Midwest South West Vaccinated Won't Get

Black Friday & Cyber Weekend Participation

% of US Consumers

Vaccine Status

US Region

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WHEN WILL CONSUMERS SHOP ON CYBER WEEKEND?

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Among shoppers who typically participate in Black Friday / Cyber Weekend shopping, we see some shifting between days, with more planning to shop on Cyber Monday and fewer planning to shop on Black Friday versus their typical year.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) Which days do you typically shop for special sales/deals the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

This year, which days do you plan to shop for special sales/deals the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

41%

86%

39%

25%

63%

37%

81%

40%

26%

68%

1%

Thanksgiving Day Black Friday Saturday Sunday Cyber Monday I don’t plan to shop on this

weekend Typical Year This Year (2021) Shopping by Day

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers

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100 100 100 100 100

94 96

89 92

105 98

105

98 99 100

104

100

106

101 101

101

98

101

107

92

Thanksgiving Day Black Friday Saturday Sunday Cyber Monday

Total Northeast Midwest South West

REGIONAL INSIGHTS: WHEN WILL CONSUMERS SHOP ON CYBER WEEKEND?

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Consumers in the Northeast are most likely to shop on Cyber Monday and least likely to shop on any other day over the holiday weekend. Black Friday shopping is most popular among Midwestern consumers, while Western and Southern consumers are more likely to shop on Saturday or Sunday.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) Which days do you typically shop for special sales/deals the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

This year, which days do you plan to shop for special sales/deals the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

2021 Cyber Weekend Shopping Plans

Regional Index vs. Total

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WHERE WILL CONSUMERS SHOP ON CYBER WEEKEND?

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Nearly half of consumers plan to do all or most of their Cyber Weekend shopping online, up slightly from prior years. This is higher among vaccinated shoppers, while those not planning to get the vaccine are more likely to shop in-store.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) Where do you typically shop for special sales/deals the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

This year, where do you plan to shop for special sales/deals the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

In-Store vs. Online Shopping

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers

6%

4%

5%

21%

15%

17%

34%

32%

33%

29%

34%

33%

32%

10%

16%

15%

14%

Don't Plan to Get Vaccine

Vaccinated Shoppers This Year (2021)

Typical Year

Exclusively in-store Primarily in-store, some online Equal mix of in-store and online Primarily online, some in-store Exclusively online

Vaccine Breakouts (2021 Intentions)

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WHERE WILL CONSUMERS SHOP ON CYBER WEEKEND?

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Among shoppers who typically participate in Cyber Weekend, 4 in 5 say they usually shop at Amazon, and half shop at Walmart or Walmart.com. Consumers expect to shop more at Target.com and Walmart.com this year, and less in-store.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) Which of the following retailers do you typically shop at on the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

This year, which of the following retailers do you plan to shop at on the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

In-Store vs. Online Shopping

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers

81%

48%

54%

41% 46%

31% 28% 28% 33%

25%

78%

50% 47% 44%

39%

31% 28% 27% 26%

20%

Amazon.com Walmart.com Walmart Target.com Target Kohls.com Small businesses/

Local shops

BestBuy.com Kohl’s Best Buy

Typical Year This Year (2021)

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HOW MUCH HOLIDAY SHOPPING WILL BE DONE ON CYBER WEEKEND?

Nearly half of shoppers expect to complete all or most of their holiday shopping the weekend of Black Friday. 1 in 4 expect to spend more this year than they have in years past, while 2 in 3 expect to spend about the same.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) How much of your holiday shopping do you plan to complete on the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

How much do you expect to spend in total this year on Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend compared to a typical year?

9%

36%

24%

27%

1%

4%

All of it Most of it About half Some of it None of it Unsure

Holiday Shopping Completion on Cyber Weekend

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers (“How much of your holiday shopping do you plan to complete the weekend of Black Friday / Cyber Monday”)

7%

17%

64%

10%

Significantly more Somewhat more About the same Somewhat less Significantly less 2021 Spending vs. Typical Year

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers

9

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HOW DO SHOPPERS HEAR ABOUT CYBER WEEKEND DEALS?

The majority of Cyber Weekend shoppers hear about the weekend’s deals and sales digitally – through online advertisements, promotional emails, or social media. About 1 in 4 say they look at physical catalogues or toy books to see what will be on sale.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) How do you typically find out about sales & deals for the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

68%

58%

53%

44% 41%

38%

33%

28%

15% 15%

Online

advertisements Promotional emails Social media Print

advertisements TV commercial In-store

advertisements Word-of-mouth Catalogues/

circulars/ toy books

On a TV show (e.g., Today Show, GMA,

etc.)

From the radio/

streaming radio

Deal Awareness Method

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers

10

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WHAT TYPES OF DEALS DO SHOPPERS WANT MOST?

When it comes to specific deals offered, Cyber Weekend shoppers are most interested in straightforward product discounts, followed closely by doorbusters. Free shipping & free returns are also important to these consumers.

Numerator 2021 Q4 Holiday Survey 09/17/2021 | Black Friday / Cyber Weekend Participants (n=1,019) What types of deals are you most interested in the weekend of Black Friday/Cyber Monday?

68%

62%

55% 50%

47%

40%

34%

Product discounts Doorbusters Free shipping/Free returns Flash sales Buy-One-Get-One (BOGO)

Deals Rebates/Money-back Rewards points/Credits future spending

Deal Preferences

% of Cyber Weekend Shoppers

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LOOKING BACK AT PAST CONSUMER BEHAVIORS

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CYBER WEEKEND IN-STORE VS. ONLINE SHARE OF SALES

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Online sales have grown increasingly important to the overall Black Friday / Cyber Monday shopping weekend. In 2020, 1 in 3 Cyber Weekend dollars were spent online, up from 1 in 4 the two years prior and 1 in 5 the years before that.

Numerator TruView 2014 – 2020 (5-day period Thanksgiving Thursday – Cyber Monday), All Categories & All Channels

10% 15% 19% 20% 25% 26%

34%

90% 85%

81% 80%

75% 74%

66%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Online In-Store Cyber Weekend Sales

Share Online vs. In-Store

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CYBER WEEKEND DAILY HOUSEHOLDS SHOPPING ONLINE

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1 in 5 US households shopped online on Black Friday and / or Cyber Monday 2020. Online penetration also grew significantly in 2020 for the Saturday & Sunday of Cyber Weekend, likely driven by pandemic habits and increased reliance on ecommerce.

Numerator Insights 2014 – 2020 (5-day period Thanksgiving Thursday – Cyber Monday), All Categories, Online

5% 6%

4% 4%

6% 7% 7%

5% 5%

9%

7%

9%

6% 6%

11%

9%

12%

9% 8%

14%

11%

15%

11% 10%

16%

13%

18%

13% 12%

19%

14%

21%

18% 17%

21%

Thanksgiving Thursday Black Friday Saturday Sunday Cyber Monday

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Households Shopping Online

% HH Penetration

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BLACK FRIDAY BASICS: 2020 KEY METRICS IN STORE & ONLINE VS. CYBER MONDAY

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While more shoppers ventured in store than shopped online last Black Friday, those shopping online had higher buy rates and larger basket sizes overall. Cyber Monday online shoppers spent less than Black Friday online shoppers, though slightly more individuals overall shopped online on Cyber Monday.

2020 Black Friday & Cyber Monday

Key Metrics by Day / Channel

HH Penetration Buy Rate Basket Size Purchase Frequency Black Friday

(In Store) 53.0% $105.48 $41.88 2.6

Black Friday

(Online) 20.9% $125.53 $66.91 1.9

Cyber Monday

(Online) 21.3% $110.53 $59.51 1.9

Numerator Insights Cyber Weekend 2020 (5-day period Thanksgiving Thursday – Cyber Monday), All Categories, Online v. In-Store

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SPREADING THE WORD ON CYBER WEEKEND DEALS

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2020 BLACK FRIDAY & CYBER WEEKEND PROMOTIONAL MIX

In 2020, promo mix surrounding Black Friday & Cyber Weekend shifted to digital formats to meet shoppers in-the-moment.

Weekly ads declined as retailers pulled back on circulars overall during the height of the pandemic.

Numerator Promo Intel; General Merchandise & Sporting Goods promotions only, 11/22/2020-12/5/2020 vs YA

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2020 Cyber Weekend Promotional Mix

Share of Promotions

35%

32%

33%

Email Promotion Web Promotion Weekly Ad

173

108

66 Email Promotion Web Promotion Weekly Ad

Media Types Index vs 2019

Share of Promotions

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2020 BLACK FRIDAY & CYBER WEEKEND PROMOTIONAL OFFER TYPES

Retailers increased offers that featured percent or dollar discounts, while decreasing BOGOs and promotions that list a flat sale price. There was also significant growth in incentives featuring Free Shipping and Free Delivery, fueled by COVID-19.

Numerator Promo Intel; General Merchandise & Sporting Goods promotions only, 11/22/2020-12/5/2020 vs YA

*Contactless services include Curbside Pickup or Same-Day Pickup

18

24%

Share of promotions offering Free Shipping or Delivery

+41% vs year ago

48%

23%

12%

4% 7% 5%

37%

30%

18%

5% 5% 4%

Sale Price Save $ or % & Up No Offer Sale Price Range BOGO 2019 2020 Cyber Weekend Offer Types

Share of Promotions, 2020 vs 2019

15%

Share of promotions touting Contactless services*

+875% vs year ago

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2020 BLACK FRIDAY & CYBER WEEKEND AD METRICS

Ads featuring Thanksgiving or Black Friday promotional messaging were down across the board last year, in terms of both spend and occurrences. Media mix remained relatively on par with 2019— online video, while representing a small portion of ads overall, was the only media type to grow share vs. YA.

Numerator Ad Intel; Running ads featuring Thanksgiving/Black Friday retail promotional messaging, 11/22/2020-12/5/2020 vs YA

*Analysis representative of Numerator’s ad monitoring universe only.

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2020 Media Types

Share of Ad Occurrences

40% 54%

4%

2%

Radio TV Online Display Other

*Other includes mobile, online video and print.

↓37% 2020 Ad Spend

↓30% 2020 Ad Occurrences

vs. 2019

Media Types Index vs 2019

Share of Ad Occurrences

155

105 100

79 74

48

Online

Video Television Radio Online

Display Print Mobile

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2020 TOP BLACK FRIDAY ADVERTISERS

Many of 2020’s top advertisers cut back spend on ads featuring Thanksgiving or Black Friday promotional messaging vs 2019. The top 5 advertisers– Walmart, Kohl’s, Macy’s, Home Depot and Target – accounted for 2 in 5 Black Friday ad dollars spent overall.

Numerator Ad Intel; Running ads featuring Thanksgiving/Black Friday retail promotional messaging, 11/22/2020-12/5/2020 vs YA