PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT

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Supported By

PETROSYNC’S PROJECT MANAGEMENT SERIES

Your Key To Analyse & Identify Risk In Project Risk Management

1 March—4 March 2016

Bali, Indonesia

PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT

& MANAGEMENT

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Our Project Risk Assessment and Management course is developed to present the purposes and methods of risk management planning and employ opportunities and threats and the use of the risk breakdown structure in risk identification.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT | PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT

How Does This Course Benefits You?

Do you know that there are positive risk & negative risk in modern risk approaches?

Learn the purposes and methods of risk management planning

Mastering the skills in risk management and employ both opportunities and threats and the use of the risk breakdown structure in risk identification.

Attain the skill in demonstrating qualitative risk analysis methods and able to mitigate project risks

Demonstrate qualitative risk analysis methods of ranking risks by probability and impact and the use of those results to drive the quantitative risk analysis & risk response planning

Learn the quantitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk

Employ quantitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk by solving simple case studies using manual analytic methods.

Learn new quantitative risk analysis methods of Risk Drivers & the integration of cost and schedule risk analysis

Observe and explain modern quantitative risk analysis software and able to recognize the characteristics of the mature project risk management organization.

Do you know that you will likely to find the large majority of risk by combining different risk identification methods?

Protecting project interests from possible risks of major financial

liabilities has always been a major business concern. Projects must

properly managed by qualitative risk assessment to minimize or to

avoid risk occur in a project planning.

Course Overview

Course Design

This course focuses on qualitative risk analysis methods of ranking risks by probability and impact and the use of those results to prepare risk response methods

You will learn to employ quantitative and qualitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk and decision tree analysis through case studies and practical exercises. Attendees will also learn to demonstrate and apply six PMBOK® Guide (© Project Management Institute) processes of project risk management .

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PetroSync Distinguished Instructor

Who Needs This Program

Practical & Consulting

Over 25 years of experience in quantitative schedule risk analysis, integrated cost-schedule risk & analysis & project scheduling best practices

Training

Provides proprietary training in project risk management, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis and project scheduling to various multinational oil & gas companies.

Regional

Clientele base is from Asia Pacific, US, Europe, South America & Middle East

Awards

 Championed Risk Driver method

Publications

 Authored Practical Schedule Risk Analysis (Gower, 2009)  Authored the Recommended Practice 57R-09 on Integrated

Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis

 Published Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis

David T. Hulett

Project Management & Risk Analysis Consultant

People who are dealing with project selection & strategy, planning and scheduling. This course covers the Project Risk Management knowledge area of the PMBOK® Guide

.

Job Titles Include:

Project Managers Project Team Leaders Project Team Members

XXX

Project Risk Managers Project Controllers

PetroSync Inhouse Solutions

PetroSync can tailor our courses to meet your specific needs at your preferred location and schedule. Contact us for more information at +65 6415 4500 or email to general @petrosync.com

PetroSync Quality Assurance

All PetroSync courses are developed with top quality to address all your training needs and purposes. Our courses are vetted strictly to ensure that we always deliver the best courses with the best industry expert.

08:00—09:00 Registration (Day 1) 13:00—14:00 Lunch 09:00—11:00 Session I 14:00—15:30 Session III

11:00—11.15 Refreshment Session I 15:30—15:45 Refreshment Session II 11:15—13:00 Session II 15:45—17:00 Session Iv (Last Session)

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Course Agenda — 4 Days

DAY 1

Introduction to Risk Analysis and Management

Definitions of risk and uncertainty, opportunities and threats

Risk of interrelated project objectives Risk analysis and risk management Sources of project risk

Company and personal attitudes toward risk Alternative responses to project risk Attributes of successful risk analysis

Discussion: enablers and inhibitors in your company to risk management?

Risk Management Planning

Developing the approach to risk management to be used Determining the type of risk analysis, e.g. qualitative

assessment or quantification of risk (or both)

Budgeting and Scheduling the risk management activities

Discussion: how important is risk management planning

in your projects? Is it practiced in the planning stage of the project?

Risk Identification

Using Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) with categories of risk – technical, external, organizational and project management

Brainstorming the project risks

Structure of the Risk Statement (cause, risk, effect)

Risk Quantification – Simple Concepts in Probability

Expected value, standard deviation calculations Likelihood of two events occurring together

Discussion: How is risk quantification, different from

qualitative risk analysis, used in your company?

Project Cost Risk – Using Probability Distributions in Risk Analysis

The purpose of a cost risk analysis

Inputs – the baseline cost estimate without embedded or below-the-line contingency

3-point ranges of uncertainty in cost estimates Select the cost elements worth risk ranging

The Method of Moments analytical method for combining uncertain costs

-Monte Carlo Simulation approach explained, demonstrated

Results:

-Total program cost risk results from the simulation -Cost contingency calculation

-Identify elements of highest cost risk – tornado

Diagrams

Cost Risk Case Study – Offshore Gas Production Platform (small groups, report back)

Project cost estimate provided

Determine the risk ranges for the selected cost elements Find the likelihood of overrun using the MOM and pocket

Discussion: The risks in a typical refinery upgrading

project

Case study – Introduce the Offshore Gas Production

Platform for Risk Identification (in small groups) -Develop a risk breakdown structure (RBS) of the usual risks experienced in projects appropriate to the case

-Identify risks in each category (small groups)

Qualitative Risk Assessment

Ranking risk into Low, Moderate and High categories Defining the terms for probability and impact Using the Probability – Impact (PxI) Matrix approach Questions that elicit probability and impact scale results Combining probability and impact of risk events

Risk registers are always incomplete, but why, how to complete them?

Case study –Implementing the (P-I) approach for the

Offshore Gas Production Platform (small groups, report back results)

-Develop definitions for different levels of probability and impact

-Use those definitions on the risks identified at Point 4 above, in small groups to develop likelihood and impact scores

-Combine P-I scores and identify low, moderate and

high risks

-Report back to the group

Decision Tree Analysis for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Organizations

Types of decisions for which decision trees are helpful Setting up the Decision Tree structure

Adding cost, reward and probability data Rolling forward to calculate path values

Folding back to calculate the event nodes and select the decision node alternatives

Risk Aversion-Utility function illustrated Key data indicated by sensitivity analysis

Case study –Decision Tree (Building decision in an

Earthquake Zone)

Risk Data Collection

Steps in collecting high-quality risk data

Who should be interviewed? What other data sources do we have?

Motivational and organizational bias in collecting risk data Combating these biases

-Interviews vs. workshops, the value of confidentiality -Risk-range the important cost risk elements only – the Pareto concept

-The risk interview – rules and expectations

Discussion: what are the inhibitors and enablers to

collecting unbiased risk data in your company? DAY 2

Register For This Course Now!

Kindly fill up your particulars in the registration form placed at the end of this brochure, and send it to us or email to

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DAY 3

Modern quantitative risk analysis - using Risk Drivers in cost risk analysis

Identifying risks from the risk register Setting up the spreadsheet

Assigning the risks to cost elements Monte Carlo simulation of the cost model

How to consider the impact of schedule uncertainty on project cost

The Monte Carlo simulation method

Creating a synthetic sample of similar projects Making probabilistic statements from the synthetic

sample

What is simulation? How does it work?

Demonstration of @RISK Simulation Software with

Microsoft Excel using Risk Drivers

-Discuss the risks that you would put in for a Refinery

Upgrade Project

-Discuss the results compared to your company’s experience-Benchmarking against experience, or the

“outside view”

Project Schedule Risk Analysis

Why conduct a schedule risk analysis?

Importance of best practice CPM project scheduling

Using best practices Critical Path Method to develop the project schedule

Purpose of CPM scheduling as a basis of the quantitative project schedule Monte Carlo simulation

Schedule risk analysis basics

Risk in activity duration

Use the uncertainty concepts or “Reference Ranges” to help manage risk range data collection and uncertainty modeling

Risk along a path in critical path method network schedule Risk at convergence points of parallel paths – the “Merge

Bias”

Identify the high risk elements – the “Highest Risk Path” Constraint dates in schedule risk – testing important dates Scarce resources in schedule risk – resource leveling Probabilistic branching

Schedule Risk Case Study (small groups, report back results)

Simple oil & gas project schedule network

Identify Reference Ranges or important risk elements

Use supplied risk ranges for selected elements

Compute likelihood of overrun, contingency needed

Use pocket calculators and the Method of Moments to

derive the total schedule finish date probability distribution

Demonstrate Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) on simple schedule

Using the project example in the case study

Compute probability of schedule overrun and schedule contingency

Identify the highest risk activities / paths

Discussion: Questions about the Monte Carlo Simulation

method DAY 4

Risk Driver Method Focus on risks rather than activities

Uncertainty representing inherent variation, estimating error/bias

Risk Drivers applied to several or many activities Some activities have several Risk Drivers assigned Capture entire impact of individual risks including the impact of the schedule’s structure

Discussion: Use example of risks and uncertainties in the

resource-loaded offshore gas production platform Calculate correlation (rather than guess coefficients)

Discussion: The concept of correlation and why it is

important

Risk Prioritization to prepare for risk mitigation Prioritize schedule risks leading to Risk Response

Management and post-mitigated results

Demonstrate Polaris and automated risk prioritization

on Offshore Gas Production Platform Project

Demonstrate the risk mitigation methods

See how risk mitigation workshops help mitigate Risk Drivers

Model risk mitigation and compare with pre-mitigated results

What is a mitigation? Different from before, committed to, funded, resourced, monitored

Integrate cost and schedule risk

Use the schedule, assigned and costed summary resources Simulation captures schedule risk impact on the cost and

Risk Drivers’ impact on the burn rate of time-dependent resources

 Scatter diagram, probabilistic cash flow  Demonstrate these using Pertmaster software

 Discuss how oil & gas company budgets and schedules to

risk-adjusted cost and time targets

Project Risk Response Strategy examples for opportunities and threats  Threat avoidance  Threat mitigation  Contingency planning  Opportunity acceptance  Opportunity sharing  Opportunity exploit  Opportunity enhance

Case study – Identify effective risk management actions for pipeline construction project

-Take the top 5 risks identified earlier

-Develop a list of primary and backup strategies to effectively mitigate risk

Risk Monitoring and Control

 Risk reviews

 Audit of the Risk Management Processes

 Cycle through risk processes during the Project Life Cycle

Characteristics of a Mature Project Risk Management Organization

 Discussion – is our company a risk mature organization?

What could be done to make it more mature?  Summary of Risk Analysis and Management

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Title : Project Risk Assessment & Management

Date : 1—4 March, 2016

Location : Bali, Indonesia

COURSE DETAILS

INVESTMENT PACKAGE DEADLINE FULL MASTERCLASS

Standard Price 26 February 2016 USD 3,595 Early Bird Offer 29 January 2016 USD 3,395 Group Discount

(3 or more Delegates) 26 February 2016 Enjoy 10% discount for groups of 3 INVESTMENT PACKAGES (Please Circle)

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