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International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering

Website: www.ijetae.com (ISSN 2250-2459, Volume 2, Issue 9, September 2012)

48

Climate Change Impact on Hydro-meterological Variables: A

Review

Azhar Husain

1

, Ayman T Hamid

2

1Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia (Central University), New Delhi, 1Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Mosul University, Iraq

Abstract Due to increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, several hydro-meteorological variables are likely to be significantly impacted. Reservoir operations, crop production, erosion processes, runoff production and many other hydrological processes are likely to be impacted by the ongoing climate change. This paper presents a comprehensive review of climate change impact on hydro-meteorological variables in several river basins around the world. The hydro-meteorological variables considered in this study include maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow. A review of local weather generators to model hydrological impact of climate change has also been presented. Changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes may be one of the most significant consequences of climate change. Therefore, a review of impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes has also been presented.

Keywords climate, water, resources, impact, indices

I. INTRODUCTION

Climate change is anticipated to have significant impact on water resource systems around the world. One of the most important and immediate effects of global warming would be the changes in local and regional water availability (Jiang et al., 2007). Temperature changes are accompanied by changes in precipitation and runoff amounts. As a result, hydrological systems are anticipated to experience not only the changes in the average availability of water but also changes in the extremes (Simonovic and Li, 2003, Jiang et al., 2007). Dracup and Vicuna (2005) reported that increase in temperature has impacted the timing of snowmelt in the California Sierra Nevada mountains leading to earlier system runoff. Other impacts of climate change that have been identified include changes in rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, and the quality of water availability.

Reservoir operations, crop production, erosion processes, runoff production and many other hydrological processes are likely to be impacted by climate change. Revelle and Waggoner, (1983) and Gleick (1987) have indicated that climate change can adversely affect the availability of water supply. Patterns of water demand will need to alter in response to changes in water supply.

Some other impacts of climate change that have been identified includes changes in the quantity of runoff produced (Gleick, 1986; Lattenmaier and Gan, 1990), and changes in the timings of the hydrologic events (Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990; Kite, 1993; Burn, 1994; Simonovic, 2001). Any change in the hydrological processes will ultimately affect the water resource systems. Burn and Simonovic (1996) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the performance of reservoir operations. Hydrologic scenarios representing different sets of climatic conditions were generated and used as an input to a reservoir operation model. It was concluded that the reservoir performance is sensitive to climate change. Westmacott and Burn (1997) evaluated the effects of climatic changes on hydrological variables pertaining to the magnitude and timing of hydrological events in the Churchill-Nelson River Basin in west-central Canada. The magnitude of hydrologic events was found to decrease over time while snowmelt runoff events occurred earlier. Mortsch et al. (2000) studied the impact of changing climatic conditions on the Great Lakes region under the scenario of doubling of CO2 concentration. Climate change

scenarios considered by Mortsch et al. (2000) indicated declines in runoff and lake levels that could lead to potential water allocation problems in the region. Southam et al. (1999) evaluated the impact of climate change in Ontario’s Grand River basin under 21 scenarios of future surface water supplies, streamflow regulation, population and water use. The authors concluded that climate change may have serious impacts on the capability of Grand River to assimilate wastewater and yield a reliable supply of water for municipal purposes while maintaining existing water quality standards.

II. CLIMATE MODELS

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International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering

Website: www.ijetae.com (ISSN 2250-2459, Volume 2, Issue 9, September 2012)

49 Empirically based models make use of the historical observations to identify trends in important climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall and changes in important weather patterns such as El –Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Process based models use mathematical representations of the processes that govern atmospheric and oceanic circulation to estimate future climate variables and seasonal changes in climate. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the most sophisticated process-based models that simulate the climate system. During the last decade, a number of complex GCMs have attempted to simulate future anthropogenic climate change scenarios. GCMs have predicted considerable warming and changes in precipitation pattern under the well know scenario of doubling of CO2 emissions. If these changes

materialize, it is suggested that the ice regime may be modified in different ways in different regions. For example, in temperate regions such as the southwestern Ontario, the brief and capricious river ice cover may disappear completely, or become more intermittent (Clair et al., 1996). This could be beneficial to the socio– economic sectors but would be harmful to the aquatic life that depends on the ice cover for winter survival.

The projections made by GCMs are usually broad and it is not possible to identify specific areas and communities that may be vulnerable to climate change, or to anticipate the magnitude of economic and ecological impacts. These limitations are caused mainly due to the relatively large spatial resolution of GCMs, which is of the order of 2° × 2.5° in the horizontal (latitude × longitude). Such a resolution is unsatisfactory for catchment level hydrologic processes and gives rise to uncertainties when downscaling is carried out using the output from a GCM. Promising work addressing the issue of spatial resolution has been carried out by Hughes and Guttorp (1994), and Wilby (1994). But still there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the regional GCM output under future scenarios of increasing CO2 and aerosol changes. Further, a climate

change scenario based on the output from a GCM represents only one of the many future climate change scenarios whereas exploring several alternative climate scenarios would be more useful for effective management of water resource systems. Estimates of weather variables particularly precipitation on finer geographic and temporal scales are needed to predict the potential effects of climate change on a regional scale. Development of local weather generators to model hydrological impact of climate change has largely been motivated by the acknowledged limitations of GCMs in evaluating the regional climatic impacts. Sharif et al. (2007) developed a weather model for generation of daily and hourly weather data.

III. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES

Several studies have been carried out in various regions of the world to investigate climate change impacts on hydro-meteorological variables. Lindstrom and Bergstrom (2004) analyzed time series of annual runoff volumes and annual as well as seasonal flood peaks in Sweden. Novonty and Stefan (2007) examined stream flow records from 36 gauging stations in five major river basins of Minnesota, USA for trend and correlations using Mann-Kendal test and moving averages method. It was concluded that threat of flooding has increased due to rainfall events than due to snow melt. Burns et al., (2007) analyzed recent climate trends and its implications for water resources in the Catskill region of USA using 9 temperature, 12 precipitation and 8 stream gauge sites. Mann Kendal test was used for trend detection and Sen slope method (Gibbons, 1994) was used for the determination of magnitude of change. Results clearly indicated a broad general pattern of warming air temperatures, and increased precipitation, stream runoff, and potential evapo-transpiration in the region. Andrea and Depetris (2007) present an overview of discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic seaboard. Hua et al. (2007) analyzed temporal trends of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in the Hanjiang basin in China using Mann-Kendall and linear regression techniques. It was observed that temperature has a significant upward trend but precipitation has no trend. Analysis of temporal trends of runoff in Danjiangkou reservoir basin indicated an increasing trend. Zhang et al. (2006) investigated trends in water levels and streamflow in Yangtze river basin in China. Singh et al. (2008) analysed temperature records of nine river basins in northwest and central India using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Results of analysis revealed that 7 of 9 basins have a warming trend. A brief overview of techniques used for trend detection has been presented by Kundzewicz and Robson (2004).

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International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering

Website: www.ijetae.com (ISSN 2250-2459, Volume 2, Issue 9, September 2012)

50 Whitfield (2001) examined temperature, precipitation and streamflow data for sites in British Columbia and the Yukon. Fleming and Clarke (2003) investigated trends in annual streamflow volume in northern British Columbia and the Yukon. Burn et al. (2004 a) and Burn et al. (2004 b) examined trends in streamflow data in the Liard and Athabasca River Basins in northern Canada. Derry and Wood (2005) found a decreasing trend in streamflow in the Canadian Arctic, and attributed it to various large scale atmospheric phenomenons. Several studies have also been carried out to examine trends and patterns in measures of the timing of runoff for a catchment. Burn (1994) examined the impacts of climate change on the timings of spring runoff event for a set of 84 rivers in west-central Canada. Cayan et al. (2001) estimated the onset of spring runoff by defining a ―pulse day‖. Zhang et al. (2001) examined the date of the onset of spring runoff using an automated approach based on current and previous streamflow values. Zhang et al (2001), Hodgkins et al. (2003), and Hodgkins and Dudley (2006) used the centre of volume date to define the timing of runoff.

IV. CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Recognizing the critical concern of global warming in south Asia, various studies have been conducted in the region to analyze trends in hydro-meteorological variables at regional and basin level (Hingane et al., 1985; Sinha et al., 1997; Arora et al. 2005; Singh et al., 2008), Bangladesh (Ahmad and Warrick, 1996), and Nepal (Shrestha et al., 1999)). Hingane et al. (1985) analyzed long-term mean annual temperature records from 1901 to 1982 over India and detected an increasing trend in mean surface air temperatures. It was observed that about 0.4°C warming has taken place over India during the last eight decades mainly due to rise in maximum temperatures. Sinha et al. (1997), however, showed that the changes in mean annual temperatures are partly due to the rise in the minimum temperature caused by rapid urbanization. Pant and Kumar (1997) have reported an increase in mean annual temperatures in India at the rate of 0.57°C per 100 years. Arora et al. (2005) investigated temperature trend all over India using Mann-Kendall non parametric technique and linear regression method. The results showed that mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C per 100 years for the post monsoon season and 1.1°C per 100 years for the winter season.

Marco et al. (2003) analyzed the temperature data of 160 climate stations in China using Mann-Kendall and inverse distance methods.

An increasing temperature trend was detected all over the country; however negative trend was detected in high latitude regions during summer. Winter period showed a warming trend with 95% significant level in southwest of Xinjiang and southwest of Tibet region. Fowler and Archer (2005) examined temperature data of seven climate stations in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountains of the upper region of UIRB for seasonal and annual trends using regression techniques. Mean and maximum winter temperatures showed significant increase while mean and minimum summer temperatures showed consistent decline. Zhang et al. (2005) analyzed monthly temperature and precipitation data for 51 climate stations and three hydrometric stations in the Yangtze basin, China. Significant positive and negative trends at 90, 95 and 99% significant level were detected using Mann-Kendall test. The middle and lower regions of the Yangtze basin showed downward temperature trend and an upward precipitation trend. The authors concluded that the middle and lower regions of the basin are likely to face more serious flood disasters in the future.

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International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering

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51 CICERO (2000) estimated a temperature rise of 0.9°C for Pakistan by 2020 and predicted that the temperature rise could double by 2050. Khattak et al. (2011) investigated monthly trends in flow and timing measures at eight stations in the Upper Indus Basin and found predominantly increasing trends in winter and decreasing trends in summer.

Chen et al. (2007) investigated temporal trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin in China using Mann-Kendall and the linear regression methods. Results indicated that precipitation has no significant trend but a significant increasing trend for temperature was seen in most parts of the basin. Further, decreasing trend was seen in mean annual, spring, and winter runoffs in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin. Singh et al. (2008) have carried out an extensive analysis of basin-wide temperature trends in northeast and central India. A warming trend was observed in seven of the nine river basins studied. The other two basins showed a cooling trend. Results of several studies have confirmed that the south Asia region is indeed warming and the trend of warming is broadly consistent with the global warming trend. As a consequence, many aspects of the natural environment, including water resources, are anticipated to experience potentially serious climatic impacts in the South Asia region. Recent IPCC report (IPCC, 2007c) clearly indicates likelihood of considerable warming over sub-regions of south Asia with greater warming in winter than in summer. Results of multimodel GCM runs under Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios B1 and A1F1 project an increase in average temperature over whole of South Asia with greatest increase being projected for winter months. The projected rise in temperature for winter months is particularly alarming as it exceeds the limit of global mean surface temperature rise of 1.8 o C to 4o C reported by IPCC (IPCC, 2007 a).

V. IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

Climate change impacts on flooding and on the occurrence of low-flow events are expected to vary from location to location. The types of changes that actually occur are likely to be influenced by the current nature of the flood regime at a location as well as the types of climate changes that occur at the location. For example, a watershed that currently experiences primarily snowmelt related flood events may experience a decrease in flood magnitude if climate change results in increased winter and spring temperatures that lead to greater losses of the snowpack prior to the onset of the spring melt.

Increased temperatures can also be expected to shift the timing of flood events to earlier in the snowmelt season. Finally, a decrease in snowmelt related flood magnitudes may lead to greater importance of rainfall-runoff flood events, especially if changes occur in the magnitude or intensity of severe rainfall events.

Some of the changes in extremes can be effectively detected using trend analysis while others will be more difficult to discern from the historical record. For example, applying trend analysis to the magnitude and timing of flood events should enable the effective identification of changes in flood magnitude and changes in flood timing (Abdul Aziz and Burn, 2006). However, identifying changes in the meteorological processes that lead to flooding events (i.e., snowmelt versus rainfall driven flood events) may be more challenging. Determining changes of the latter type will require detailed analysis of the conditions prior to the flooding events; trend analysis may only be useful when applied to data sets resulting from considerable processing of the readily available meteorological and hydrometric data.

Changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes may be one of the most significant consequences of climate change (Beven, 1993; Jones, 1999). Kite (1993) showed an increase in maximum river flows that is consistent with the projected increase in extreme rainfall events in the Rocky Mountains of British Columbia. Loukas and Quick (1999) and Loukas et al. (2002) investigated the potential impacts of the future climate change on the causes of flood flows for two mountainous watersheds located in two different climatic regions of British Columbia. The results showed that the overall flood magnitude and frequency of occurrence would increase in the coastal basin, and decrease in the interior basin. Roy et al. (2001) investigated the impact of climate change on summer and fall flooding on the Chateauguay River Basin in Québec. The authors indicated potentially very serious increases in the volume of runoff, maximum discharge and water level under future climate change scenarios. Whitfield et al. (2003) found increasing frequency of floods in all analyzed watersheds in Georgia Basin, British Columbia. Weston et al. (2003) found peak annual flows of the Englishman River on the Vanouver Island to be 8% larger by 2020, 14% by 2050 and 17% larger by 2080. Cunderlik and Burn (2004) identified increasing maximum flows in spring, and decreasing autumn maximum flows in British Columbia.

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International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering

Website: www.ijetae.com (ISSN 2250-2459, Volume 2, Issue 9, September 2012)

52 Yulianti and Burn (1998) investigated the impact of air temperature change on low flow conditions for 77 rivers in the Canadian Prairies and found that low flows have a decreasing tendency. Hengeveld (2000) projected more frequent occurrence of droughts. The drought of 2001 affected Canada from coast to coast, with significant economic and social impacts. Many areas experienced the lowest summer precipitation in historic record (Lemmen and Warren, 2004). In 2001, the level of the Great Lakes reached its lowest point in more than 30 years (Mitchell, 2002). Significant trends toward longer frost-free periods could increase drought occurrence, since longer ice-free season for lakes and rivers increases the potential for open-water evaporation.

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