MATELAN Research
Preview Note
12 November 2012
Price as of 09/11/12: €8.69
Company / Sector
Fair Value
Recommendation
BDI – BioEnergy Intern.
€20.0
Neutral
HiTec Engineering (Renewable Energies)
(€20.0)
(unchanged)
Activity level in Q3 might not support FY estimates
Share price performance Investment case
While the second quarter showed some signs of improvement and following up on this performance would have left the com-pany positive even in a transition year, we might now face a weak level of activity in Q3, which might not allow the company to cover current fix costs. Though this would trigger a revision in our full year earnings estimates, the company’s strong cash position should still more than support the current market valu-ation. In any case, we stay Neutral on the stock until momen-tum picks up again.
LOW ACTIVITY IN Q3 WEIGHS ON EARNINGS
While the second quarter showed some positive signs we are
somewhat cautious with regard to BDI’s development in Q3.
Work on the new BioDiesel orders appears to show some delays
and there is little left to do in FVD and BioGas. This should lead
to a situation in which BioDiesel might just break-even while FVD
and BioGas should turn negative on EBIT level. As a
conse-quence, net profit for the quarter as well as the nine month period
should become negative.
FY FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO HIGH
With losses in BioGas most likely not phasing out as planned, it
will be hard to achieve our FY forecasts or even reaching a positive
result. The BioGas division’s performance might even require that
the goodwill in BDI’s accounts needs to be written down, which is
not yet part of our estimates, and which would trigger an even
stronger earnings revision after the release of results. Though an
earnings revision should have a negative effect on our valuation,
we should still see some upside from the current share price based
on the company’s high cash position.
Share data Reuters D7I.F Bloomberg D7I GY No. of shares (m) 3.80 Monthly volume 17.777 Free float 19.1% Market cap. (m) 33.0 EV (m) n.m.
Valuation 2012e 2013e
EV/Sales n.m. n.m. EV/ EBITDA n.m. n.m. EV/EBIT n.m. n.m. PER 24.6 13.9 Div. yield 2.9% 2.9% RoCE 1.8% 5.1% RoE 2.4% 4.2%
For additional disclosures please refer to the appendix
Analyst Forecasts 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
Hartmut Moers Sales 33.90 39.91 34.68 29.00 35.00 42.00
Tel.: +49 228 227 99 240 EBITDA 5.73 5.35 6.38 2.30 3.74 4.71
[email protected] EBIT 1.77 3.20 3.63 1.04 2.49 3.60
Adj. EPS 0.67 0.98 1.09 0.35 0.63 0.86
Dr. Anne Gronski Dividend 2.60 2.65 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Tel.: +49 228 227 99 238 Oper. CF 1.36 0.74 5.28 -5.07 2.61 3.19 [email protected] Free CF 1.51 -0.19 -0.84 -5.57 2.11 2.69 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 08/ 11/ 10 08/ 01/ 11 08/ 03/ 11 08/ 05/ 11 08/ 07/ 11 08/ 09/ 11 08/ 11/ 11 08/ 01/ 12 08/ 03/ 12 08/ 05/ 12 08/ 07/ 12 08/ 09/ 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 Volume (l.s.) Close (r.s.)
MATELAN Research
Q3 12 Preview
Source: BDI, Matelan Research
EUR000 Q3 12e Q3 11 Change 9M 12e FY 12e FY 11 Change
Order book at end of period 29,900 22,200 34.7% 29,900 15,000 15,100 -0.7% BioDiesel plant manufacturing 2,600 7,538 -65.5% 9,381 12,000 22,989 -47.8% Fine vacuum destillation 1,000 1,277 -21.7% 4,934 8,000 6,474 23.6% BioGas plant manufacturing 500 358 n.m. 4,962 9,000 5,221 n.m.
Sales 4,100 9,173 -55.3% 19,277 29,000 34,684 -16.4%
BioDiesel plant manufacturing 50 1,117 -95.5% 50 1,200 4,518 -73.4% Margin 1.9% 14.8% 0.5% 10.0% 19.7%
Fine vacuum destillation -300 218 -237.6% -300 750 700 7.1% Margin n.m. 17.1% n.m. 9.4% 10.8%
BioGas plant manufacturing -1,300 -192 n.m. -1,300 -910 -1,593 n.m. Margin n.m. n.m. n.m. -10.1% -30.5%
EBIT -1,550 1,143 -235.6% -1,550 1,040 3,625 -71.3%
Margin -37.8% 12.5% -403.4% n.m. 3.6% 10.5% -65.7% Net profit a.m. -1,450 1,109 -230.7% -579 1,345 4,151 -67.6%
MATELAN Research
Sales and EBIT-margin
Adj. EPS and DPS
Source: BDI, MatelanReserch, left scale in EURm Source: BDI, MatelanReserch, EUR, DPS incl. capital reduction
Operating cash flow and free cash flow
Capital expenditure and depreciation
Source: BDI, MatelanReserch, EURm, excl. invest. in securities Source: BDI, MatelanReserch, EUR, excl. unsched. depreciation
Equity and net debt
RoCE and RoE
Source: BDI, MatelanReserch, EURm Source: BDI, MatelanReserch
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0 20 40 60 80 100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Sales (l.s.) EBIT-margin (r.s.) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Adj. EPS DPS -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Opearting cash flow Free cash flow
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Capex Depreciation -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Equity Net debt (neg. numbers = net cash)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
MATELAN Research
PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT
BALANCE SHEET
EURm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Sales 77.1 61.7 33.9 39.9 34.7 29.0 35.0 42.0 50.0 59.0
Growth -20.0% -45.0% 17.7% -13.1% -16.4% 20.7% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0%
Change invent. / intern. prod. assets 0.2 2.8 0.5 0.6 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Total Output 77.3 64.4 34.4 40.5 37.0 29.2 35.2 42.3 50.4 59.4
Growth n.m. n.m. 17.6% n.m. n.m. 20.7% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0%
Cost of goods sold -55.0 -34.7 -16.2 -21.3 -17.2 -12.8 -15.5 -18.6 -22.2 -26.1
Gross profit 22.3 29.8 18.2 19.2 19.8 16.4 19.7 23.7 28.2 33.3
Gross-margin 28.8% 46.2% 52.9% 47.5% 53.6% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0%
Personnel expenses -7.5 -10.8 -9.0 -9.0 -9.5 -7.5 -9.1 -10.9 -12.9 -15.3
Other operating income 0.7 3.0 4.6 3.3 4.8 3.8 4.6 5.5 6.6 7.7
Other operating expenses -10.5 -14.3 -8.1 -8.2 -8.8 -10.4 -11.5 -13.6 -15.8 -18.9
EBITDA 5.0 7.6 5.7 5.3 6.4 2.3 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.8
EBITDA-margin 6.4% 11.8% 16.7% 13.2% 17.2% 7.9% 10.6% 11.1% 11.9% 11.5%
Amortisation and Depreciation -0.3 -2.6 -4.0 -2.1 -2.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9
EBIT 4.7 5.0 1.8 3.2 3.6 1.0 2.5 3.6 5.0 5.9
EBIT-margin 6.1% 7.8% 5.1% 7.9% 9.8% 3.6% 7.1% 8.5% 9.9% 9.9%
Financial costs 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Participation result -0.3 -1.4 -0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Income from securities 2.7 2.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Financial result 2.4 1.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Extraordinary result 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBT 7.1 6.3 2.5 4.7 4.5 1.8 3.2 4.4 5.8 6.8
Income taxes -1.6 -1.8 -0.5 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.7
Earnings transferred to limited partners 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net profit 5.5 4.6 2.5 3.4 3.9 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.4 5.1
Growth -16.3% -45.3% 33.3% 15.6% -65.6% 77.2% 37.3% 33.8% 16.7%
thereof minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
thereof net profit attrib. to shareholders 5.5 4.6 2.5 3.7 4.2 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.4 5.1
Average no. of shares (m) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
EPS (EUR) 1.46 1.22 0.67 0.98 1.09 0.35 0.63 0.86 1.15 1.34
Growth -16.2% -45.3% 46.2% 11.9% -67.6% 77.2% 37.3% 33.8% 16.7%
Adj. EPS (EUR) 1.46 1.22 0.67 0.98 1.09 0.35 0.63 0.86 1.15 1.34
Growth -16.2% -45.3% 46.2% 11.9% -67.6% 77.2% 37.3% 33.8% 16.7%
DPS (EUR) 0.00 0.75 2.60 2.65 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.34
Payout Ratio 0.0% 61.4% 389.3% 271.4% 22.9% 70.6% 39.9% 29.0% 25.0% 25.0%
EURm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Intangible assets 4.3 11.9 8.8 13.8 13.6 13.3 12.3 11.6 11.1 10.7
thereof goodwill 0.2 3.5 3.5 7.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
Tangible assets 0.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4
Financial assets 0.1 11.2 34.5 32.1 26.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Other fixed assets 4.8 10.3 9.0 9.7 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3
Fixed assets 9.6 35.7 54.4 57.8 54.0 55.6 54.7 54.0 53.5 53.2
Inventories 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.9
Accounts receivable 13.4 3.9 1.8 6.4 9.2 12.3 14.8 17.7 21.0 24.7
Cash and marketable securities 74.8 61.0 37.0 25.3 18.0 9.0 10.7 13.0 16.0 19.4
Other current assets 5.0 6.5 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
Current assets 93.1 72.0 42.8 35.8 32.2 27.0 31.7 37.5 44.5 52.4
TOTAL ASSETS 102.7 107.6 97.2 93.6 86.2 82.7 86.4 91.5 98.1 105.6
Subscribed capital 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Reserves 54.0 59.7 61.8 44.3 47.0 50.2 50.6 52.1 54.4 57.7
Profit for the year 5.5 4.6 2.5 3.7 4.2 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.4 5.1
Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shareholder's equity 63.3 68.1 68.1 52.3 55.0 55.4 56.8 59.1 62.6 66.6
Equity ratio 61.7% 63.3% 70.1% 55.9% 63.8% 67.0% 65.7% 64.6% 63.8% 63.0%
Short term financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long term financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gearing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pension and similar provisions 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.8 Other provisions and deferrals 14.2 17.4 15.0 16.6 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1
Provisions 15.7 19.4 17.1 19.2 15.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.0 Accounts payable 7.5 8.6 5.1 3.8 5.7 4.1 4.9 5.9 7.0 8.3 Advances received 14.1 8.9 2.0 3.3 6.2 4.0 4.8 5.8 6.9 8.1 Trade liabilities 21.6 17.4 7.2 7.0 11.9 8.1 9.8 11.7 13.9 16.4 Other liabilities 2.1 2.7 4.8 15.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 TOTAL LIABILITIES 102.7 107.6 97.2 93.6 86.2 82.7 86.4 91.5 98.1 105.6
MATELAN Research
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
DIVISIONAL BREAKDOWN
EURm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
EBIT 4.7 5.0 1.8 3.2 3.6 1.0 2.5 3.6 5.0 5.9
Depreciation and amortization 0.3 2.6 4.0 2.1 2.8 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
Change in other provisons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -1.9 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Change in net working capital -2.4 4.9 -5.6 -1.2 1.1 -7.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 Change in other assets & liabilities 0.3 1.7 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial result 2.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Extraordinary result 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Discontinued operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taxes -0.3 -0.6 0.4 -3.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.7
Cash flow from operating activities 5.2 14.8 1.4 0.7 5.3 -5.1 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.5
Investments in tangible and intangible assets -0.8 -3.0 -0.6 -0.8 -2.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Investments in financial assets -2.1 -25.5 -23.2 -6.1 -3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net investments in other fix assets 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash flow from investing activities -2.9 -28.6 -23.1 -4.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Change in financial liabilities 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in shareholder's equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in pensions and similar prov. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
Dividend payments 0.0 0.0 -2.9 -9.9 -10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other / Consolidation / Currency 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.3 -3.2 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2
Cash flow from financing activities 0.0 -0.1 -2.3 -7.9 -11.9 -3.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6
Cash at the beginning of period 72.5 74.8 61.0 37.0 25.3 18.0 9.0 10.7 13.0 16.0
Change in cash 2.3 -13.8 -24.0 -11.7 -7.3 -9.0 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4
Cash at the end of period 74.8 61.0 37.0 25.3 18.0 9.0 10.7 13.0 16.0 19.4
EURm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
BioDiesel plant manufacturing 77.1 55.1 29.6 32.6 23.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 18.0 22.0 Fine-vacuum distillation n.a. 6.6 4.3 5.6 6.5 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 BioGas plant manufacturing 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 5.2 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0
Sales 77.1 61.7 33.9 39.9 34.7 29.0 35.0 42.0 50.0 59.0
BioDiesel plant manufacturing 4.7 6.8 1.4 3.7 4.5 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.2
Fine-vacuum distillation n.a. -1.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
BioGas plant manufacturing 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -1.6 -0.9 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.1
EBIT 4.7 5.0 1.8 3.2 3.6 1.0 2.5 3.6 5.0 5.9
BioDiesel plant manufacturing 6.1% 12.3% 4.7% 11.3% 19.7% 10.0% 5.0% 8.0% 10.0% 10.0% Fine-vacuum distillation n.a. -26.2% 8.7% 5.2% 10.8% 9.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% BioGas plant manufacturing n.a. n.a. n.a. -46.5% -30.5% -10.1% 7.0% 8.0% 10.0% 10.0%
MATELAN Research
GROWTH MARGINS PROFITABILITY CAPITAL STRUCTURE VALUATIONBased on average share price up to 2011, Net Debt, LT provisions, Minorities and Participations are year-end numbers.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Sales -12.2% -20.0% -45.0% 17.7% -13.1% -16.4% 20.7% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% EBITDA -65.0% 52.4% -24.4% -6.7% 19.3% -64.0% 62.9% 26.0% 27.5% 13.7%
EBIT -66.6% 7.5% -64.8% 80.6% 13.4% -71.3% 139.4% 44.6% 38.9% 18.0%
Net profit -52.2% -16.3% -45.3% 33.3% 15.6% -65.6% 77.2% 37.3% 33.8% 16.7%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Gross 28.8% 46.2% 52.9% 47.5% 53.6% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0%
EBITDA 6.4% 11.8% 16.7% 13.2% 17.2% 7.9% 10.6% 11.1% 11.9% 11.5%
EBIT 6.1% 7.8% 5.1% 7.9% 9.8% 3.6% 7.1% 8.5% 9.9% 9.9%
Net 7.2% 7.2% 7.4% 8.4% 10.6% 4.6% 6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 8.6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
RoE 8.7% 6.7% 3.0% 6.5% 7.5% 2.4% 4.2% 5.5% 6.9% 7.0%
RoA 3.0% 3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 3.8% 0.7% 2.0% 2.7% 3.6% 4.0%
RoCE 75.9% 21.3% 9.1% 13.3% 12.6% 1.8% 5.1% 7.3% 9.9% 10.4%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Equity ratio 61.7% 63.3% 70.1% 55.9% 63.8% 67.0% 65.7% 64.6% 63.8% 63.0%
Asset turnover 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
Net working capital / sales 24.9% -1.4% -4.8% 22.6% 36.6% 70.7% 70.4% 70.2% 70.0% 69.8%
Receivables days outstanding 63 23 19 59 97 155 154 154 153 153
Payables days outstanding 35 51 55 35 60 52 52 51 51 51
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Share price 38.5 13.1 12.1 16.5 15.2 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
x No of shares 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
= Market Cap 146.2 49.8 46.1 62.9 57.6 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0
+ Net debt (- Net cash) -74.9 -72.1 -71.5 -57.3 -44.9 -37.8 -39.5 -41.8 -44.8 -48.2
+ LT provisions 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.8 + Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Participations -4.8 -10.3 -9.0 -9.7 -11.3 -11.3 -11.3 -11.3 -11.3 -11.3 = Enterprise Value 68.0 -30.6 -32.2 -1.0 3.5 -14.2 -15.5 -17.4 -19.9 -22.7 EV / Sales 0.9 n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.1 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. EV / EBITDA 13.7 n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.5 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. EV / EBIT 14.5 n.m. n.m. n.m. 1.0 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. PE 26.4 10.7 18.2 16.9 13.9 24.6 13.9 10.1 7.5 6.5 Dividend yield 0.0% 5.7% 21.4% 16.0% 1.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.9% Price / Book 2.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
MATELAN Research
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