1. Introduction
Consumer-oriented product design is begun by consumers. It means it is started by consumers’
preference. It satisfies consumers’ needs and corresponds with consumers’ emotion. That is why designers catch consumers’ preference, emotional images and design elements for a product through various ways and decide on design direction, and materialize a design based on their relationship. However, designers’ works which have to infer a direction of future product design are very difficult because consumers’ preference is constantly changed. There is actually a problem to need a lot of time in progressing after they decide on preference design direction of consumers. So there is a risk that con release a design to have been old design because consumer preference is changed that was so. Therefore, it is necessary the objective process that can decide on the design direction to be able to correspond with consumers’ emotion in future points of time. There may be various ways to decide a design concept, but trend analysis is one of the best ways to be able to satisfy consumer preference. This trend analysis has to include
not only the process of products' design related elements but also the process of products’ design related characteristics, social and cultural environment, market environment, and technological environment. Because product design is be closely connected with environment changes.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide the process to be able to present future design directions of MP3 players after catching products’ characteristics, social and cultural environment, market environment, technological environment and design progress.
In this study, we selected MP3 player for our research subject because nowadays MP3 player has been fast growth.
There are certain limits to predict and apply the future design to the MP3 player development based on the current design preference survey and designers’ subjective judgment. Accordingly, to overcome the limits, objective and appropriate processes for the future design should be taken.
Future Directions of MP3 Player Designs through Trend Analysis
Yuri Lee*, Jong-Youl Yang**,
Jeong-Chan Moon***, Ji-A Lee***, Mi-Ok Jung***
* Dept. of Design Manufacturing, Chonbuk National University, 664-14 Deokjin-dong Deokjin-gu 561-756, S. KOREA, [email protected]
** Dept. of Industrial Design, Chonbuk National University, 664-14 Deokjin-dong Deokjin-gu 561-756, S. KOREA, [email protected]
*** Dept. of Industrial Design, Chonbuk National University, 664-14 Deokjin-dong Deokjin-gu 561-756, S. KOREA
Abstract: It is very important that design based on preference of consumers who continuously change. So, the process that can decide on the design concept which a consumer can prefer in future points of time that a design is released is necessary.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide the process to be able to present future design directions of MP3 players after catching products’ characteristics, social and cultural environment, market environment, technological environment and design progress. For the purpose of this studywe examined MP3 player and the MP3 player market. And as an empirical research, we collected 227 MP3 players’ pictures released from 2000 to 2007 now, decide on design elements and levels of the elements and executed trend analysis used a SPSS program. We provided the process to be able to present future design directions of MP3 players through trend analysis. In the result, we knew future consumers are moving toward emotional experience-oriented consumption. Therefore, both high price and low price MP3 players have to be made to satisfy consumers’ emotional needs. This study can become a base of scientific study as present the theoretical basis that can present future direction of a design, and can be used momentously to working-level officials taking charge of a designas important competitive elements.
Key words: MP3 player, Trend analysis, consumer preference
2. Method
First, we examined MP3 player and the MP3 player market. And as an empirical research, we collected 227 MP3 players’ pictures released from 2000 to 2007 now and decide on design factors and levels of the factors.
Then, we executed trend analysis used a SPSS program.
Finally, we suggested a design strategy and a future design direction of MP3 player based on the results of trend analysis.
3. MP3 player and the Market Review 3.1 Definition of MP3 player
MP3 is short for MPEG Layer-3. It is the high quality digital audio signal compression method under the standard decided by ISO in 1991. MP3 players are devices that can decode and play the compressed digital audio files.
3.2 Structure of MP3
MP3 players comprise interface, data storage media, memory, decoder chip, amplifier, and LCD.
3.3 Types of MP3 player
Depending on decoding files and storage size, MP3 players can be grouped into CD type, flash memory type, and HDD type. Early MP3 players appeared as CD player type that plays the MP3 files recorded on CD. In the middle of 2002, flash memory replaced CD as a storage media and the flash memory type MP3 players became mainstream type. Recently, MP3 players obtain more functions such as photo display and movie play and become rapidly conversed to other technical devices.
3.4 MP3 player market
Now, MP3 player producers are at war in the very unpredictable market. Taste of consumers changes almost every month. Any mistake in reading the trends will result in elimination in the market. As of 2005, Apple’s iPod leads the market occupying 26 % of the market shares (73% of the US market and 72% of the HDD type market). More than 100 million iPods were sold in 5 years since its launch in November, 2001. No one thought that iPod would become this digital era’s leading icon when it was first released. With the explosive support from the digital music mania, it now became the new digital “cult” brand.
But iTunes operates limited service only in North America, Japan and Europe. So in other countries, iPod have comparative lower market share and other small and medium companies have market shares. And even in iTunes service area, debate on unfair trade of exclusive DRM continues, also there is antipathy due to worry for iPod's market monopoly. Like such, because areas of lower market share of iPod exist and anti-iPod areas exists, major global IT enterprise, MS, Samsung Electronics, Matsushita Electronics, Nokia are entering MP3 marker after 2003, are doing their best on R&D and market making.
Therefore, the “war” in the MP3 player market has just begun. Currently, Apple has the biggest market share in the MP3 player market with its iPods. This can be changed. In the competition with small companies such Reigncom, Apple’s iPod took the easy lead. However, big companies such as MS, Samsung, Matsushita, Nokia are getting used to the market and now well prepared for the competition among the big companies since entering the market.
3.5 Status of MP3 player producers
A Korea company, Saehan Information System developed MP3 player in 1997 for the first time in the world. Since then, many other companies such as Reigncom, Cowon System, Digitalway entered the market. As a result, domestic MP3 player market was led by these medium companies. In 2003, many global electronic companies and domestic big companies such as Samsung entered the MP3 player market causing dramatic changes in the market.
Domestic companies, though they supply HDD type MP3 players as well, mainly make flash memory type multifunctional ultra-small MP3 player, while HDD type is more popular in foreign countries. Recently in Europe, Korea-made MP3 players are gaining popularity.
These domestic companies list Samsung, Reigncom, Cowon system and so on. The foreign companies include Apple, RIO, and RCA from USA; Philips, Arcos, Bang&Oulfsen from Europe;
Sony, Panasonic, AIWA, Toshiba, and Sanyo from Japan. The current market leaders are Apple and Creative Technology with Apple being number one because of its successful iPod.
4. Empirical research
4.1 Data Collection
We extracted 227 MP3 players which were released from 2001 to 2007, June.
Fig.1 Objects for trend analysis
4.2 Design elements and dummy variables of level decision
We extracted each design elements structured MP3 player, decided the level of each design elements and made them dummy variables. If a design element did not have a design level, it was represented 1 and if a design element had a design level, it was represented 2.
Fig.2Design elements and dummy variables
4.3. Analysis
Fig.3 Homogeneous Analysis (3 dimension) by SPSS program
Fig.4Homogeneous Analysis by SPSS program
Figure 5, figure 6, and figure 7 show trend of MP3 players, 2001-2007.
Fig.5 Homogeneous Analysis (dimension 1) 2001-2007
Fig.5-2Homogeneous Analysis (1 dimension) 2005-2007
5. Results and Discussions
Table1. Design Trends of MP3 players
Fig.6Homogeneous Analysis (dimension 2) 2001-2007
Fig.7Homogeneous Analysis (dimension 3) 2001-2007
(1) Emotion-driven design trends
Since mp3 players made their first appearance in market, they have mainly aimed at designs which attach importance to functions and structures.
Since year 2003, as big companies entered the market, their competition was intensified. Hence, the speed of miniaturization and diversification of flash memory based players were accelerated and their shapes, structures and colors became various.
As high and low price markets are distinctly divided, the direction of each design trend clearly grows apart in two ways. Even though they are low price, they give emphasis to high quality.
In case of low price market, MP3 players get down to low-end price, so players’ design becomes styling.
In case of high price market, black or gray in body color and high-glossy in surface are continually showed up, the whole body form gets slimmer and new minimal edge emphasized simplicity is showed up and high quality design skills of simplicity that hide the most part of functions appear.
All of them give emphasis to emotional design.
(2) Trends for each year
The environment and design progress of MP3 players for each year are as follows.
1) 1997 year
· Environment & design trends:
MP man, the first MP3 player was launched by Saehan Information System.
2) 2000 year
· Environment & design trends:
Various MP3 players based on a CD player were released according to changing MP3 players’ structure and usage.
3) 2001 year
· Environment & design trends:
The first HDD type player was launched by Apple in November, 2001. From that time, prototype of HDD based player designs appeared.
4) 2002 year
· Environment & design trends:
As MP3 players of flash memory type put down the main current in the market, prototype of flash memory based player designs decreased but flash memory-based MP3 players were miniature and various.
5) 2003 year
· Environment & design trends:
As big companies entered the market, their competition was intensive. Hence, the speed of miniaturization and diversification of flash memory based players were accelerated and their colors were various.
6) 2004 year
· Environment & design trends:
HDD types and flash memory types of MP3 players were specialized with their own merits, so their designs were variously developed. Especially, flash memory based players were more miniature. As players were diverse, their shape, structure and color were various.
7) 2005 year
· Environment:
- According to expand flash memory-based MP3 player market due to be lowered flash memory price, MP3 players were increased.
-As market share of flash memory-based MP3 players increased to 68% in 2005 from 35% in 2004 due to introduction of Apple’s flash memory-based iPod, Korean MP3 players which are mainly flash memory-based were decreased in production and export.
- HDD type MP3 players’ market share was a little decreased but the MP3 players based movie or mass-storage have been constantly released.
- MP3 players’ market reorganized by big companies and their competition was more intensive.
- As PMP markets, started to form in 2004, started major growth in 2005, MP3 players with multimedia functions (electronic dictionary, DMB, MP3 phone) took the lead.
∙ Design trends:
- Round edge of shape was variously changed.
- Color, shape and structure were more diversified.
- The market of flash memory based MP3 player was divided into high and low price markets.
- i-Pod suffle as low-end price was launched by Apple.
- High priced MP3 players were added multi-functions and simple and minimal design was emphasized.
8) 2006 year
· Environment:
- New generation MP3 player, PMP was incorporated with DMB and/or PDA.
- In case of the MP3 players with basic functions, the speed of high-tech oriented and miniaturization were accelerated.
·Design trends:
-Indicated LCD of music function was developed into LCD played movie or music video. So, whole size of MP3 player was smaller, whereas LCD size of MP3 player was bigger.
- Black color and high-glossy in surface treatment was remarkable.
- Surface volume shape was strengthened and various organic forms were showed.
9) 2007 year
· Environment:
- i-Pod was more than 100 million sold and June, 2007, i-Phone was released by Apple.
- As anti-apple companies have been collaboration, production and exported amount of MP3 player in Korea has been increased. And, many companies have made various MP3 players and have plans to make new models.
·Design trends:
- As high and low price markets are distinctly divided, the direction of each design trend clearly grows apart in two ways.
In case of low price market, MP3 players get down to low-end price, so players’ design becomes styling.
In case of high price market, black or gray in body color and high-glossy in surface are continually showed up, the whole body form get slimmer and new minimal edge emphasized simplicity is showed up and high quality design skills of simplicity that hide the most part of functions appear.
Figure 8 sums up the environment and design progress of MP3 players for each year illustrated above.
Fig. 8. Design Trends of MP3 players
We consider the future trend of MP3 player into 4 points according to the result.
Market of MP3 player will be divided in to high priced market and low priced market.
1. High priced MP3 players with various multi-functions and simple designs will be still emphasized.
- LCD design is highly developed due to be important the LCD based on multi media and movie function.
- High-tech-oriented design and minimal design - Design of simplicity as an omission or a hiding skill - Emphasis of gray and black color
2. Low end priced MP3 players like i-Pod suffle will be expanded and they will have unique designs
- Fashionable design as accessories such as a cell phone, a necklace, and a bracelet
- Various forms and structures of MP3 player - Various colors
- High-tech oriented surface treatment
3. Various convergences of MP3 player will be still increased.
4. Flash type MP3 players should be possible the function of mass-storage. So, flash type MP3 players should substitute for HDD type.
6. Conclusions
We provided the process to be able to present future design directions of MP3 players through trend analysis.
In the result, we knew future consumers are moving toward emotional experience-oriented consumption.
Therefore, both high price and low price MP3 players have to be made to satisfy consumers’ emotional needs.
So, we present four design directions for MP players based on this study result. 1. Development of high-priced MP3 player with various multimedia functions. 2.
Development of MP3 player with basic functions. 3.
Development of new convergence products with MP3 function. 4. Development of new MP3 player based on flash memory. If designers can infer a future MP3 player design from this design trend results, the probability that can occupy competitive advantage in their competitions will be high.
As MP3 players become commodity and economies of scale get important, the market related to MP3 players is growing. Big companies such as MS, Samsung, Nokia, Matsushita recently entered the market, which will result in the competition among the global companies with more intensity than before. Therefore, MP3 player competitiveness will be determined by price, compatibility with various contents, device market related to MP3, and design based on miniaturization, high-tech function, and mass storage. Particularly, as several of designs can be applied to MP3 player without much restriction and life cycle of MP3 player is short, effect of design will be big. MP3 player market has now started to grow. Market share of Apple’s iPods is outstanding but overall ultimate competition has now begun.
This study has a limit that sample objects were not shown as real things but as pictures, there could be some measurement errors. We look forward for future researches to make up for those limitations.
7. References
1. Electronic parts institute. Market trend of MP3 player, JUN-2006
2. Korea Electronics Association, Industrial competitive research for MP3 player, 2006.11
3. Lee,Eun-Min. Current Market Trend of MP3 player.
IT Strategy, 2006; p.30.
