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FACTORING THE WHAT IFS INTO SUPPLY FORECASTING: WHY BUILDING A DURABLE SUPPLY CHAIN AROUND A PROTOCOL IS CRITICAL

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Table of Contents

Introduction

Drug Development Challenges Escalate Clinical Supplies Demand New Attention How Difficult Can Supply Planning Be? Key Considerations in Spully Planning

When “What If” Becomes Reality: Managing Supply Crisis Practicing Good Supply Chian Management

Fisher Clinical Services Case Study

Top 10 Recommendations for Supply Planning Success Advice From a Founding Father

More about Fisher Clinical Services References 3 5 8 11 13 16 20 22 25 26 27 28

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Introduction

Clinical supplies have historically been considered part of the execution phase of clinical trials, instead of a key component of the

planning process. Now, growing urgency in the biopharmaceutical industry to speed new products to market is leading to greater appreciation for supply forecasting as a strategic and highly complex success factor. One could posit that the attention is overdue. After all, clinical supplies have become a major trial expense. A supply shortfall, or the inability to deliver needed supplies to clinical sites, can delay the start of a clinical trial or cause an ongoing one to grind to a halt. Supply shortages can even imperil an entire clinical development program. According to one estimate, biopharmaceutical companies stand to lose between $600,000 and $8 million for each day that clinical trials delay the development and launch of a drug.1

At its core, the problem is one of perception. Although seemingly simple, supply forecasting is rife with complexity. Armed with a calculator and a protocol, it’s logical to assume that determining the required quantities of an investigational product (IP) and comparator would be a matter of

multiplication. Relying exclusively on a standard mathematical formula for forecasting supply needs, however, fails to factor in all that can go wrong to disrupt a supply chain at a time when sponsors can least afford costly missteps.

In spite of persistent efforts to contain research and development (R&D) spending, swelling trial costs reflect a steady increase in the volume, length, breadth and scope of clinical studies. The complexity of trials is also

accelerating, thanks in part to a spike in studies of biologics requiring special handling and those targeting especially challenging problems such as Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes and cancers. While the average cost of taking a drug from laboratory to licenser today has reached an all-time high, the success rate remains flat.2, 3, 4

With such high stakes, clinical trial professionals must take every precaution to prevent the supply chain from unraveling. In addition to modeling, this includes factoring in a host of “what ifs.” Defined as anything that could jeopardize the supply chain, “what ifs” include everything from natural disasters and terrorist attacks to increasingly common shortages of commercial drugs used as comparator or standard of care.5

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Introduction

between what’s known and unknown, risk and budget, the needs of the trial and those of patients. The ultimate goal is ensuring that the right patients receive the right drugs at the right time. Otherwise, everyone -- sponsors, investigators, patients and society at large -- stands to lose.

Fisher Clinical Services, a global leader in supply chain management, is exclusively focused on supplying global clinical trials. This paper discusses the aspects to consider when developing a supply plan, the influence of early decisions and impact on outcome as a trial progresses, and how decisions can put patients and the trial at risk.

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Drug Development Challenges Escalate

Pressure on biopharmaceutical companies to deliver new products faster and more efficiently is driving a heightened sense of urgency and amplifying already considerable operational and strategic

challenges.

That urgency is accelerating as companies grapple with an array of obstacles. Among them: The latest round of patent cliffs, increasing demands prior to licenser from regulatory authorities, and sluggish R&D output amidst pressure from investors demanding financial returns. Despite herculean efforts to hold the line on drug development costs, the average price tag for developing a drug has climbed to $1.3 billion, while the success rate is unchanged. Just 20 percent -- 1 in 5 -- of investigational drugs win marketing approval in the U.S.4

Just when it seemed that clinical trial professionals couldn’t possibly be under greater pressure, they find themselves facing a host of challenges.

Growth of clinical trials: The sheer number of trials is huge

and growing. In 2013, for example, there were +148,000 trials registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, the registry of clinical trials in the U.S. and around the world, compared with +5,000 registered trials in 2000.6

Logistical complexity: Thanks to the industry’s embrace of

globalization about 15 years ago, half of all clinical trials are now conducted offshore. In 2013, trials were underway in 185 countries; in 2012, about 40% of studies were taking place at sites in Asian, Latin American and African emerging nations.6 The migration of

studies to every corner of the globe has been a success, but supplying such trials is a highly complicated undertaking. In many countries, the supply chain must be closely managed. Take India, for example. Although this nation of 1.2 billion people is a

top-ranked location for clinical trials, its climate and infra structure pose substantial challenges, particularly for trials of biological products requiring cold-chain handling.

Shifting research: Double-digit growth in clinical trials of biological

products has been slowly transforming the clinical trial environment. The success of biologics is also projected to fuel explosive growth in the global biosimilars market as biological drugs generating more than $80 million in annual sales lose patent protection between 2013

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Drug Development Challenges Escalate

and 2015. 7, 8

Finally, studies that target medicine’s greatest puzzles have grown substantially as companies designate intractable diseases as research priorities.

Volume of investigators & clinical sites: Similarly, the number of

clinical investigators and sites are at an historic high. In 2012 alone, nearly 28,000 clinical investigators at 15,000 unique locations participated in global clinical trials.9 In many sprawling countries,

clinical sites are located hundreds of miles from major cities and airports, increasing supply issues.

Patient recruitment challenges: In addition to rising clinical trial

volume, more patients are enrolled in trials today than a decade ago. Larger-sized studies reflect requirements by regulatory bodies to ensure products’ safety and efficacy prior to licenser. Needless to say, the larger the trial, the greater the patient recruitment burden. Consider that 30,000 of the 148,000 trials registered in 2013 were recruiting patients.6 Trial plans frequently reflect unrealized

optimism about patient recruitment. Recruitment and retention rates can vary widely by investigator and site. While it’s common

knowledge that 20% of clinical sites recruit 80% of subjects, which investigators or sites will be productive is impossible to predict. Recruitment rates substantially impact supply forecasting for global trials, since supplies bound for one country cannot be redeployed to another without relabeling to accommodate language and regulatory differences.

Differing regulatory & customs requirements: Many countries,

mainly those considered to be emerging markets, are evolving and developing regulatory requirements. These ongoing changes significantly impact supply chain issues, such as the phrases used in labels, IP dating restrictions and eligibility for drug to be extended. In addition, despite substantial progress toward global regulatory alignment, customs requirements also continue to evolve and may differ dramatically amongst even neighboring countries. The greater the number of countries participating in a trial, the greater the pressure from a supply standpoint.

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pressure further.

Shorter study start-up timelines: Shrinking timelines also mean

shorter study lead times, resulting in the need to squeeze critical tasks -- from obtaining import permits and training investigators to manufacturing, blinding, packaging and shipping supplies -- into a narrower time window, with little room for error.

It’s obvious that there is no shortage of challenges facing clinical trial professionals.

In an effort to identify the top supply chain challenges, the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development surveyed clinical trial professionals. The following table is a summary of their responses.

Source: Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development

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If one imagines a clinical trial as a stool, its three legs would no doubt be sites, subjects and supplies. While sites and subjects have always gar-nered significant attention, for decades supplies were taken for granted largely because they were inexpensive and readily available. That is, until now.

As the industry grapples with escalating R&D costs, it is focusing new attention on the cost of clinical supplies, a subject that was of little

concern 20 years ago. Then drugs cost pennies per tablet and sponsors were unconcerned about overproduction and wastage. In fact, production of as much as 500% of the drug or drugs necessary for a clinical trial was commonplace and acceptable.

Once averaging just 4% of overall trial costs, clinical supplies have become big-ticket items and a major clinical trial expense. Clinical trial

professionals say supplies are now responsible for a minimum of 10% of trial costs, a proportion that continues to increase. In studies involving biologics, for example, the proportion may be substantially higher. What’s certain is this: Applying old assumptions to the cost of clinical supplies as a percentage of trial costs could result in projects running egregiously over budget. Here are some reasons why:

Impact of Biologics

Biologics have been heralded for making possible giant leaps forward in the treatment of a host of serious diseases, from cancers and diabetes to rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis. Their success has fueled the growth of biologics trials, impacting supply chains and development costs. Today, more than a third of Fisher Clinical Services’ projects involve biologics.

Due to their complexity to manufacture, biologics are expensive and often available in limited quantities during development. Because they are produced from living organisms, biologics must be stored, transported and maintained at controlled temperatures in a “cold chain,” a strict system of temperature and stock control to assure their potency and safety. Cold-chain compliance requires careful documentation, tracking of biological products at every level, and adherence to strict temperature requirements at all times.

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To ensure temperature control, special handling of biologics is necessary. Packaging and shipping, for example, are frequently more expensive than those for small molecule drugs. These additional precautions spell the difference between biological product that maintains its integrity, permitting a trial to proceed on schedule, and product that requires replacement, potentially putting the brakes on a study.

Global Trial Complexity

The biopharmaceutical industry embraced globalization in pursuit of cost-savings and the rapid recruitment of treatment-naïve patients, a gamble that has paid off. Another benefit of global trials has been that of gaining a marketing foothold in countries such as China and Japan, which may require local trials before licensing new drugs and vaccines.

Offsetting these substantial benefits are the expense and effort of supplying trials underway in thousands of locations across the world. Obstacles include the resources necessary to navigate evolving government regulations for drug importation, unravel jurisdictional disputes over paperwork that can delay the start of a trial, and manage the logistics of supplying multi-site trials in countries with inadequate infrastructure.

Growing Demand for Comparator

The volume and complexity of global clinical trials have been accompanied by a corresponding increase in the demand for commercial drugs used as comparator or standard of care and the challenge of obtaining them.

Securing large volumes of comparator, meeting the steep costs associated with the use of comparators instead of placebos, and taking precautions to prevent counterfeit product from infiltrating the supply chain are among the issues facing supply chain professionals today. Once comparator has been sourced, the need to blind solid dosage forms can also stress efforts to meet aggressive clinical timelines.

An important goal of effective supply planning is striking a balance between sourcing sufficient clinical supplies v. having an oversupply

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that could go to waste.

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To assume that supply forecasting is a matter of multiplication is understandable, but that’s merely a starting point in a highly complex process aimed at managing risk.

Of course, a standard forecasting formula can work -- assuming, of course, that everything goes according to plan. But how often does everything go perfectly?

Effective forecasting requires fully informed decisions that take multiple factors into consideration, including every imaginable complication that could derail a supply chain. Among the considerations:

Enrollment speed

Speed and location of enrollment impacts the volume of supplies needed. If enrollment speed differs from what is anticipated, an all too common problem, it can increase the difficulty in supplying the study.

Milestone attainment

Every supply chain has lead times that can turn out to be inconsistent with the development milestones for a study or

molecule. This can understandably result in friction between Clinical and the supply chain management team. Example: Clinical

traditionally establishes milestones such as protocol approval, country and patient allocation, and first-patient visits (FPVs). If for whatever reason, finalization of the protocol or the list of

participating countries is delayed and a corresponding adjustment in FPV timing is not made, there may be insufficient time to create labels or complete packaging. This can jeopardize both FPV attainment and that of future study milestones.

Dating & extensions

Ensuring that there are sufficient supplies with good dating prevents problems with potential shortages should resupplies be delayed. In

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How Difficult Can Supply Planning Be?

addition, some countries permit only a prescribed period of drug dating until real-time stability is established. This impacts how material is supplied to these countries.

Material availability

Drug shortages are a commonplace and growing problem, especially in the area of oncology. Supply chain managers may have to scramble to obtain sufficient supplies of comparator from many different sources, often at significantly higher cost. The issue of availability is not limited to comparators; Sponsor-provided IP can also be in short supply if the molecule is new or the active

pharmaceutical ingredient (API) is available in limited quantities.

Blinding

Supplies must be sourced early enough to permit blinding, since a delay in the latter could prevent a study from starting on time.

Distribution systems

Having an extensive global footprint of qualified distribution and packaging facilities provides needed flexibility for supplying trials, especially in the event of crises.

Numerous dosages, forms, sizes & shapes

It stands to reason that the greater the quantity of dosages, forms, sizes and shapes, the greater the complexity of supplying the study.

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Key Considerations in Supply Planning

Every supply forecasting decision impacts the protocol. Here we

examine three specific factors -- Package Design, Dispensing Plan and IP Label Grouping -- and the impact of decisions about each on the supply chain. Of course, these are not the only factors that impact planning and forecasting. Individual factors and situations vary and an experienced supply chain manager must assess their impact on the supply chain.

Factors 1 & 2: Package Design & Dispensing Plan

Though separate, these two factors are intertwined and for that reason are addressed together. Prior to decision making about package design and the dispensing schedule, it’s necessary to know the following:

• The dispensing visits in the study schedule

• Amount of drug in a primary package (i.e. tablet count per bottle or blister card)

• Number of packages per drug type to dispense per dispensing visit

In making decisions, considerations should include, but are not limited to: • The indication being studied

• The dosing information chart & diagram

• Stability information for packaging drug, including the allowable fill range

• Cost

• The enterprise supply chain page (i.e. manufacturing

locations → packaging locations → warehouses → countries → sites → patients)

• Ease of managing supply throughout study

Every decision has a downward effect on the success and ease of managing the IP supply.

Consider, for example, a decision to have a low number of package types for dispensing in a variety of combinations for all dispensing visits versus a specific package configuration for each dispensing visit. Similarly, consider a decision to have regular dispensing visits versus dispensing at every other visit or doubling up at one visit so the next visits can be skipped. The following charts illustrate the effects of Package Design and Dispensing

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Key Considerations in Supply Planning

Plan decisions on the supply chain.

Factor 3: IP Label Grouping

One of the first steps in building a supply plan is determining the country label groups. For a global trial, the choices could include:

• U.S. – Single panel, Outside the United States /Rest of World (OUS/ROW) booklet

• Regional booklets – North America (NA), European Union (EU) and Asia Pacific (AP)

• Global booklet – Inclusion of all countries

• Alternative – That of developing a customized solution Decision making considerations should include, but are not limited to:

• First Patient Visits (FPVs)

• Distribution network and inventory management complexity • Label requirements and label generation lead times

• Supply flexibility

• Frequency of regulatory changes

Note the impact and challenges of Label Grouping decisions on the IP supply chain.

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Decision Impact Supply Chain Challenge Low Number of

Package Types • Decreased demand

forecasting complexity • Increased flexibility in supply management • Decreased Overages • Decreased packaging lead times and/or instances

• More efficient use of storage space (warehouses and site) • Less complex Interactive Response Technology (IRT) • Fewer number of site shipments • Operational Communications • Lead Times • Forecasting Complexity Regular Dispensing Visit Intervals • Decreased demand forcasting complexity

• Less complex IRT forecasting and set up

• Fewer resupply shipments • Few site

monitor visits for drug return

• Operational Communications

• Forecasting Complexity

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Even the most meticulously planned trials can and do go awry. From acts of nature to acts of terrorism, life can intervene to jeopardize a trial.

It’s the responsibility of the supply chain manager to ensure that a trial continues uninterrupted and that supplies keep flowing, regardless of what happens to ground flights, close roads, cut off power or shut down sites. The following examples focus on two of the most common threats to trials -- natural disasters and drug shortages -- and the real-life solutions savvy supply chain managers marshaled to prevent trials from going off the rails.

Natural disasters

Natural disasters and weather patterns -- from earthquakes, floods and superstorms to tornadoes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and everything that falls in between top the list of threats that can have a material effect on supplies. Consider some recent examples:

April 2010: An ash cloud from the eruption of Icelandic

volcano Eyjafjallajökull closes European airspace for a week, grounding 100,000 flights in the biggest air travel disruption since World War II.11

March 2011: A 9.0 magnitude earthquake hits Japan,

triggering tsunamis that kill 28,000 people, washing away entire villages, and prompting a nuclear crisis. It becomes the most expensive natural disaster in world history.12

October 2012: Superstorm Sandy slams into the

mid-Atlantic region of the U.S., devastating communities, closing airports, train stations and roads, and leaving much of the hardest hit Greater New York City area without power for weeks.13

In similar circumstances, the strategies described here have enabled sup-plies to keep flowing to patients:

Shipping some supplies, warehousing the rest: Remember the idiom about not putting all one’s eggs in one basket? In this case, the supply chain manager had taken the precaution of shipping a portion of the material from a packaging campaign to one

When “What If” Becomes Reality:

Managing Supply Crisis

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This limited the exposure of clinical supplies to the crisis and permitted quick access to back-up material. Meanwhile, a review of the supply forecast was conducted to determine whether the next resupply should be expedited.

Assessing the protocol for visit flexibility: Occasionally, a solution may be as close at hand as the protocol. In this situation, the supply chain manager worked in collaboration with Clinical Operations and the Regional monitoring groups to determine whether the protocol allowed for flexibility in the visit windows. Protocols usually specify a target visit interval, but allow for minimum and maximum visit intervals as well. In the event of a crisis, it’s important to assess the risk of having patients run out of study drug and the sites’ inventory status. The solution was to have the sites reschedule patients for the maximum visit interval,

permitting time to assess the inventory or for new material to arrive. Of course, there may be instances in which material cannot be shipped in a timely fashion or patients cannot make a return visit in time. The supply chain manager and Clinical must develop a plan for dealing with these situations.

Qualifying multiple packaging locations: The precaution of qualifying multiple packaging locations as a precaution in the event of a crisis is the supply chain equivalent of having insurance. When the entire inventory was wiped out in a particular disaster, a network of locations in the affected area stood ready to spring into action and package new supplies. This solution required considerable preparation before any packaging was required, including:

Ensuring that additional bulk material and packaging components were available for a new packaging campaign

Checking to be sure that regulatory documents reflected all possible facilities capable of packaging material;

Confirming that all affected countries would accept material for the back-up facilities;

Reviewing labels to determine whether they contained any facility-specific information;

When “What If” Becomes Reality:

Managing Supply Crisis

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Networking with other facilities to determine if they had the capacity and appropriate tooling/capabilities necessary for packaging.

Drug shortages

Expanded use of commercial drugs in clinical trials as comparator or standard of care is occurring just as drug shortages impact supply chains and patients in general.

There were 251 drug shortages in 2011 and 121 shortages in 2012, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). A major reason for these shortages has been quality/manufacturing issues that shut down production. Other causes include delays in receiving raw materials and components from suppliers, cost issues, and an increase in demand that exceeded supply.14

Oncology drugs have been particularly hard hit by these shortages. In a survey of 245 physicians during the 2013 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, 83% of oncologists reported a drug shortage in the first half of 2013 and 92% said patients’ care was affected.15

The following are successful supply planning strategies that have been used to address drug shortages.

Sourcing globally: When shortages for many U.S.

commercial drugs that were standards of care appeared on the FDA website, supply managers had to act quickly in order to head off a potential supply crisis. They moved to source materials outside the U.S., then imported to the U.S. for use in trial there.

This strategy required that the drug be included on the FDA shortage list. Procurers faced a series of hurdles, among them obtaining a sufficient quantity of material with

appropriate dating in a usable form from credible sources. To accomplish all of this required lengthy lead time of 6 months or more.

When “What If” Becomes Reality:

Managing Supply Crisis

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Review Boards (ERBs), and the agreement of study patients in the Informed Consent. Study teams, monitors and sites also required additional training. This strategy impacts the availability of material on a global level.

Waiting it out: Some teams have opted for the risky approach of micromanaging their clinical supplies to the last vial or blister pack while they anxiously await new material from their current manufacturer. In choosing this strategy, it’s important to have a back-up plan for

obtaining the material from an alternative source or via alternative means. This could entail reimbursing sites for material they have in stock. Of course, the greatest danger is that new supplies fail to arrive in time, leading to a

treatment delay or halt in enrollment, and consequent impact on the development timeline.

When “What If” Becomes Reality:

Managing Supply Crisis

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The best way to prepare for the unexpected is by maintaining the fundamentals of good supply chain management at all times. So what constitutes good supply chain management?

Clinical trial professionals define good supply chain management as

planning effectively, taking a multitude of variables from a variety of sources into consideration, and creating a supply plan that’s flexible enough to withstand life’s unexpected events and constant evaluation so adjustments can be made when necessary.

Here we’ll discuss two tough lessons learned when faulty judgment during the planning process led to disastrous conclusions.

Weighing Cost v. Overage

An investigational drug was in a head-to-head global trial with an expensive commercial product. In an effort to avoid wasting resources, the supply plan allowed for ordering and packaging the bare minimum quantity needed of the commercial drug. However, enrollment was so rapid that the entire quantity of commercial material was depleted within a matter of weeks. As a consequence, further enrollment had to be put on hold for 6 months while more materials were sourced and packaged, extending the timeline of the trial and the development program.

Lesson learned: Overage isn’t necessarily an indication of wasteful planning. Running out of materials can actually be more expensive than investing in some overage at the start of a trial. Avoid being penny wise and pound foolish.

Knowing import license requirements.

As the supply chain for clinical trials continues to extend beyond the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to a host of emerging markets, strong distribution plans and a keen understanding of import license requirements are critical. In another recent study, an import license filed in one

country included the lot numbers only for new lots of product. The old import license was about to expire, but the lots of product included on it still had good dating. Subsequently, there was a delay in approving and

releasing the new lots. Because the new import license included only the new lots and the old import license had expired by then, no material could be shipped to the country and patients ran out of drug.

Practicing Good Supply Chain

Management

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lots with good dating on the import license in the event that the new material is not released on time.

Practicing Good Supply Chain

Management

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Fisher Clinical Services Case Study

This case study focuses on the challenges of what will be called the Apex Study (not the real name) and how these problems were addressed. Apex was a head-to-head study comparing the safety and efficacy of Product A and Product B (the competitor’s product) for diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP). The study was conducted in 15 countries in the EU and other countries outside the U.S.

Apex was a regulatory requirement for an already commercialized product. Although it was also the most complicated study in the life of the product, it was assigned a low priority by the sponsor. The reasons had to do with timing and resources.

Apex was being planned at the same time the sponsor was also planning and executing higher priority studies for compounds that were not yet commercialized. The sponsor and investment community were counting heavily on the success of these investigative products.

Study Details:

Study randomization was 1:1:1:1, with patients taking doses in the morning and evening:

Group 1 dosed with Product A only

Group 4 dosed with Product B only

Group 2 starts with Product A and adds Product B

Group 3 starts with Product B and adds Product A

Patients could opt to reduce the dose at any visit; however, dose escalation was required at visits 5 & 6. Patients could also elect early discontinuation at any time.

There were 5 basic packages -- Morning, Evening, Dose Reduction Morning, Dose Reduction Evening and Week 2 taper packages. Materials were packaged in 4 x 9 inch blister cards.

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Challenges:

The original plans called for the use of 40 distinct blister cards to manage all of the dose increases, decreases, tapering, morning and evening designations and to blind either Product A or Product B. Through careful planning, the team was able to reduce the number of blister cards by 80% to just eight base cards. Color coding and distinct labels were used to denote morning, evening, dose reduction and Week 2 taper doses.

The initial supply was planned to support about 50,000 cards. However, the packager could package only 10,000 cards to start the study due to higher priorities. Resupply was needed for dating on the bulk drug.

The team worked with Clinical Operations to refine the enrollment plan and win strict agreement to adhere to the plan until more material could be packaged

The team also calculated the most needed packages to start the study. This meant enough material to complete Study Period 2.

Clinical also had to agree to potentially using the maximum visit window for all patients if new material was not available prior to Study Period 3.

Outcomes:

Enrollment began more slowly than expected, which allowed the supply to last longer than anticipated. The second resupply was also limited to 10,000 cards because of competing priorities and capacity issues at the packager.

Now, however, the demand for supplies had to be spread across the entire study and was not isolated to packaging material for Study Period 2. A third resupply with dating to last to the end of the study was packaged much sooner than expected; from initial to final, there were three supplies in about eight months.

Lessons learned: Further reduction of package types could have been achieved had Regulatory and Country contacts been willing to allow the IRT to play a role in denoting the packages. For example, instead of labeling packages as either “morning” or “evening”, a sticker could have included

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both words. Then the IRT could have told the study coordinator at the point of assignment what the package actually was -- i.e. “This is a morning package; please mark it ‘morning’.”

-- In addition, better alignment on priorities between Material and Clinical would have permitted work to begin earlier on material needed to support the trial. This would have avoided the need to expedite small packaging runs and limit trial enrollment.

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Clinical supplies can no longer be taken for granted because global trials taking place under rigid timelines leave little room for error. In an

environment of increasing drug shortages, effective supply planning is more important than ever. The following recommendations can help establish a durable supply chain:

1. Allow sufficient time for supply forecasting, sourcing comparator, blinding solid dosage forms, filing import licenses and other critical pre-study activities. If materials are in short supply and must be sourced globally, 6 months or more of lead time is required. 2. Maintain constant communication between the operations and

supply team for more effective study planning and prompt fixes to problems as they arise.

3. Know the rules with respect to regulatory requirements, import licenses and other rules to avoid surprises that can derail a timeline. 4. Be inclusive on paperwork, particularly import licenses, to provide a

buffer against mid-trial supply shortfalls.

5. Avoid unnecessary risks and don’t make the mistake of assuming that commercial product will be available when needed. As one supply chain professional put it, supplying a global trial “is not like going to Walgreens.”

6. Be realistic as well as economical. No sponsor can afford to waste resources, but having some overage is better than having a trial derailed or delayed because there’s no more comparator in the cup board.

7. Expect the unexpected & factor in “what ifs” by ensuring that the supply plan reflects options in the event of a strike, tsunami, super storm or other emergency that could prevent material from reaching sites when it’s needed.

8. Learn from mistakes and others’ hard lessons to avoid planning catastrophes.

9. Remember that patients are the top priority, so treat every trial as a priority. Trials that aren’t treated as priorities have a strange way of being wracked with problems that impact patients and sponsor budgets.

10. Use an experienced partner. Fisher Clinical Services is the world’s most experienced supply chain partner. Its team has the knowledge and experience necessary to guide sponsors through the thorniest supply planning challenges.

Top 10 Recommendations for Supply

Planning Success

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To build a durable supply chain around a protocol requires proactively man-aging risk to prevent a dreaded “what if”– from an IP shortage to a

tsunami – from unraveling a supply chain and imperiling a billion-dollar development program.

Supply planning in the 21st Century demands exceptional knowledge and experience, a keen understanding of the environment, meticulous attention to detail -- and, some suggest, nerves of steel.

Benjamin Franklin, a Founding Father of the United States and noted polymath, could have been speaking about supply forecasting when he said “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!”

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For more than 20 years, Fisher Clinical Services has exclusively focused on serving the packaging and distribution requirements of clinical trials across the world. As clinical trials require increasingly complex supply chain support, our purpose-built integrated facilities provide the global presence, information systems, and flexibility to allow unparalleled visibility and control of GMP activities from protocol design through to the investigator site. Our professional teams bring unsurpassed experience to the challenges associated with supporting clinical trials today. With exposure to large multinational trials and thousands of protocols every year across all

therapeutic areas, Fisher Clinical Services has developed the industry’s best practices in clinical supply chain management.

Fisher Clinical Services is a part of the BioPharma Services Division of Thermo Fisher Scientific, the world leader in serving science, enabling our customers to make the world healthier, cleaner and safer. With annual revenues of $10 billion, we have more than 30,000 employees and serve over 350,000 customers within pharmaceutical and biotech companies, hospitals and clinical diagnostic labs, universities, research institutions and government agencies, as well as environmental and industrial process control settings.

More About Fisher Clinical Services

North America +1 610 391 0800 | UK +44 1403 2127 00 | Switzerland +41 61 485 23 00

India +912717 662200 | Singapore +65 6873 0860 | Japan +81 3 6457 0250 China +86 10 8947 2071 | Argentina +55 11 3719 0203 For more information

Email: info@thermofisher.com www.fisherclinicalservices.com

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References

1. Reprioritizing Investigator Meetings -- Accelerating Clinical Trials through Process Improvement; http://www.cuttingedgephar ma.com/Whitepapers/WP206_Clinical%20Trials%20Investi gator%20Meetings.pdf

2. J. DiMasi and H. Grabowski, “The Cost of Biopharmaceutical R&D: Is Biotech Different?,” Managerial and Decision Economics, 2007

3. J. DiMasi et al, “The Price of Innovation: New Estimates of Drug Development Costs,” Journal of Health Economics, 2003. 4. The Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development, “New Drugs

Entering Clinical Testing in Top 10 Firms Jumped 52% in 2003-2005,” Impact Report, 2006.

5. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, “Drug Shortages,” http://www. fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/DrugShortages/default.htm 6. ClinicalTrials.gov, http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/

7. Report on Biosimilars and Follow-on Biologics: World Market 2022, www.visiongain.com

8. Global Information Inc., “Despite Recession, Global Biosimilars Market Grew Over 40% 2010-2011, Set to Reach $3.6 Billion by 2016,” Press release, June 11, 2012. http://www. billion-2016-38667.html

9. The Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development, “Investigative Site Landscape Remains Highly Fragmented as the Number of New Investigators Worldwide Reaches and All-Time High,” Press release, March 12, 2013. http://csdd.tufts.edu/news/ complete_story/ir_pr_mar_apr_2013

10. Lamberti, Mary Jo; Costello, Mary; and Getz, Kenneth, “Global Supply Chain Management” Applied Clinical Trials Online,

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References

11. “How the 2010 ash cloud caused chaos: facts and figures”, The Telegraph, June 13, 2013

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/trans port/8531152/How-the-2010-ash-cloud-caused-chaos-facts-and-figures.html

12. “Japan Earthquake, Tsunami: Moments of Destruction,” ABC World News with Diane Sawyer, March 9,2012, http://abc news.go.com/International/japan-earthquake-tsunami-moments-destruction/story?id=15862106#

13. Freed, Joshua, “Sandy shuts down Northeast air travel”, The Associated Press on Boston.com, October 30, 2012, http:// www.boston.com/travel/destinations/2012/10/30/

sandy-shuts-down-northeast-air-travel/6sqxeQKDdd0nTq7K LOT7BI/story.html

14. Food and Drug Administration website, Frequently Asked Questions about Drug Shortages, http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/ DrugShortages/ucm050796.htm#q1

15. Szabo, Liz, “Cancer drug shortage putting patients at risk,” USA Today, June 3, 2013 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/LIFE/ usaedition/2013-06-04-Drug-shortages-endanger-cancer-pa tients-study-findsRECOVERED-Mon-Jun--3-17ART_ST_U. htm

References

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