Asset Classes – Performance per Year
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
US Equities
S&P 500
3.0% 31.5% -4.4% 21.8% 12.0% 1.4%
13.7% 32.4% 16.0% 2.1% 15.1% 26.4% -37.0%
5.6%
Russell 2000
-10.1% 25.5% -11.0% 14.6% 21.3% -4.4%
4.9%
38.8% 16.4% -4.2% 26.8% 27.1% -33.8% -1.6%
NASDAQ 100
26.6% 39.5% 0.0% 33.0% 7.3%
9.8%
19.4% 36.9% 18.3% 3.6% 20.1% 54.6% -41.6% 19.2%
Global Equities
MSCI World
0.4% 28.4% -8.2% 23.1% 8.2%
-0.3%
5.6%
27.4% 16.6% -5.0% 12.4% 30.9% -40.3%
9.7%
MSCI ACWI
0.4% 27.3% -8.9% 24.7% 8.5%
-1.8%
4.8%
23.5% 16.8% -6.8% 13.3% 35.5% -41.8% 12.3%
EuroStoxx 50
-13.5% 29.4% -11.3% 9.9%
4.8%
7.3%
4.9%
22.7% 19.6% -13.1% -1.8% 27.0% -41.8% 10.4%
Stoxx 600
-12.2% 27.9% -10.1% 11.4% 2.6% 10.2%
7.8%
21.5% 18.9% -8.0% 12.3% 33.4% -43.4%
2.9%
FTSE 100
-21.0% 17.2% -8.8% 12.0% 19.2% -1.4%
0.7%
18.7% 10.0% -2.1% 12.7% 27.4% -28.3%
7.4%
SMI
0.5% 30.2% -7.0% 17.9% -3.4%
1.1%
12.9% 23.9% 19.1% -4.6%
1.2% 22.1% -33.0% -1.4%
Topix
-3.0% 18.1% -16.0% 22.2% 0.3% 12.1% 10.3% 54.4% 20.9% -17.0% 1.0%
7.6% -40.6% -11.0%
Emergings
HSCEI
-10.8% 14.5% -10.0% 29.6% 1.4% -16.9% 15.5%
-1.4% 19.7% -19.6% 1.7% 66.0% -49.9% 58.8%
Bovespa
-16.1% 31.6% 15.0% 26.9% 38.9% -13.3% -2.9% -15.5% 7.4% -18.1% 1.0% 82.7% -41.2% 43.6%
MSCI Emerging Markets
-0.2% 18.8% -14.3% 37.8% 11.8% -14.6% -2.0%
-2.3% 18.6% -18.2% 19.2% 78.9% -53.2% 39.7%
Bonds
Euro Aggregate Bond Index
2.8%
6.0%
0.4%
0.7%
3.3%
1.0%
11.1%
2.2% 11.2% 3.2%
2.2%
6.9%
6.2%
1.4%
Euro 1-3Y Bond Index
0.0%
0.4%
-0.2% -0.1% 0.6%
0.6%
1.8%
2.0%
5.0%
2.3%
1.7%
5.8%
5.8%
3.6%
US Aggregate Bond Index
7.0%
8.7%
0.0%
3.5%
2.6%
0.5%
6.0%
-2.0%
4.2%
7.8%
6.5%
5.9%
5.2%
7.0%
US 1-3Y Bond Index
2.8%
4.0%
1.6%
0.9%
1.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
1.3%
1.7%
2.6%
5.0%
4.6%
6.7%
US High Yield
0.8% 14.3% -2.1%
7.5% 17.1% -4.5%
2.5%
7.4% 15.8% 5.0% 15.1% 58.2% -26.2%
1.9%
Commodities
CRB Index
-20.4% 9.4% -12.4% 0.7%
9.3% -23.4% -17.9% -5.0% -3.4% -8.3% 17.4% 23.5% -36.0% 16.7%
Gold
25.5% 18.3% -1.6% 13.5% 8.1% -10.4% -1.4% -28.3% 7.1% 10.1% 29.6% 24.4% 5.8%
30.9%
WTI Crude Oil
-35.6% 34.5% -24.8% 12.5% 45.0% -30.5% -45.9%
7.2%
-7.1%
8.2% 15.1% 77.9% -53.5% 57.2%
Dollar Index
-2.8%
0.2%
4.4%
-9.9% 3.6%
9.3%
12.8%
0.3%
-0.5%
1.5%
1.5% -4.2%
6.0%
-8.3%
Equity Markets - Price Action
September 22, 2020
3
The following table shows our trading targets for a number of market indices. We indicate our degree of
conviction as well as the short term, intermediate supports and resistances.
Last
Trading Target
in %
Conviction
Pattern & Comments
S&P 500
3'265
3'100 -5.1%
2 Return to long term trend
3'350
2.6%
3'230
-1.1%
Nasdaq
10'936
10'000 -8.6%
2 Return to long term trend
11'250
2.9%
10'400
-4.9%
EuroStoxx 50
3'157
3'000 -5.0%
2 Retracement within a corrective move
3'250
2.9%
3'150
-0.2%
Nikkei
22'660
Possible breakdown as the market reopens
22'900
1.1%
22'200
-2.0%
HSCEI
9'580
9'500 -0.8%
1 Retracement within a corrective move
10'015
4.5%
9'500
-0.8%
Support
Resistance
Short Term Price Action
S&P 500 - Daily
The
S&P 500 tested twice the 50D moving average, bounced to the resistance trend line before breaking down.
It has now confirmed it has entered another leg of correction that should extend to about 3’090.
Nasdaq 100 - Daily
September 22, 2020
5
The
Nasdaq had a similar pattern, has entered its second wave of correction and is poised to drop further on
some profit taking as investors secure YtD profits for the last quarter of the year.
But one thing is holding it back for now, investors are “buying on dips” FAANGs stocks… similar to what
happened in March before the sell-off.
FAANGs- Daily
FAANGs that had led the Nasdaq on the way up have stabilised for now but are at risk of potentially more pain
to come as most stocks still trade far away from their long term trends (see next page).
Apple - Daily
September 22, 2020
7
Large Tech stocks
The table shows the distance of a number
of tech indices and large tech and media
stocks to their moving average.
50D
100D
200D
S&P 500 Index
-2%
3%
6%
NASDAQ 100 Stock Index
-2%
5%
15%
S&P 500 Information Technology
-1%
6%
15%
SOX Index
-1%
6%
15%
Apple Inc
-1%
13%
30%
Microsoft Corp
-4%
1%
11%
Amazon.com Inc
-7%
3%
22%
Alphabet Inc
-7%
-3%
2%
Facebook Inc
-5%
2%
14%
Visa Inc
-2%
1%
4%
Tesla Inc
25%
64%
130%
Mastercard Inc
0%
5%
9%
NVIDIA Corp
7%
22%
51%
Adobe Inc
2%
10%
24%
salesforce.com Inc
12%
23%
34%
PayPal Holdings Inc
-3%
6%
30%
Netflix Inc
-2%
3%
18%
SAP SE
-4%
3%
9%
Accenture PLC
1%
8%
15%
ASML Holding NV
-4%
-3%
6%
ServiceNow Inc
3%
11%
29%
Autodesk Inc
-4%
0%
12%
Workday Inc
4%
10%
17%
Dassault Systemes SE
2%
4%
7%
ANSYS Inc
-2%
4%
12%
Nasdaq – Elliott Wave count
September 22, 2020
9
In terms of Elliott Wave pattern, a pullback to 9’500 / 10’000 would nicely complete the correction pattern on
Eurostoxx 50 - Daily
Finally, the
Eurozone Index has broken out of its 3 months consolidation pattern. The move is clearly on the
downside with little support before 3’000 and a strong resistance at 3’280.
Stoxx 600 - Daily
September 22, 2020
11
The broader, pan-European
Stoxx 600 failed to break above its 200 days moving average and is also likely to
retest its May highs at about 345.
DAX - Daily
EuroStoxx Banks - Daily
September 22, 2020
13
Banks drove the market down amid new revelations of past exposure to money launderers. Some banks such
as as Spain’s Santander or BBVA have even made new lows and the whole sector is at risk of having the same
fate amid growth worries.
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
M
ay
-1
8
Ju
n-18
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-18
Oc
t-18
Nov
-1
8
Dec
-1
8
Jan
-1
9
Fe
b-19
M
ar
-1
9
Ap
r-1
9
M
ay
-1
9
Ju
n-19
Ju
l-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-19
Oc
t-19
Nov
-1
9
Dec
-1
9
Jan
-2
0
Fe
b-20
M
ar
-2
0
Ap
r-2
0
M
ay
-2
0
Ju
n-20
Ju
l-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Se
p-20
Risk Appetite Index
S&P 500
Risk Appetite
Our
Risk Appetite Index returned in risk aversion territory but remains below 1 standard deviation meaning
that the market is not in risk-off mode yet.
Global Markets - Price Action
September 22, 2020
15
The following table shows our trading targets for a number of global macro markets. We indicate our degree of
conviction as well as the short term, intermediate supports and resistances.
Last Trading Target in % Conviction Pattern & Comments
Gold 1'904 1'850 -2.9% 2 Technical correction in a long term uptrend 2'020 6.1% 1'815 -4.7%
Silver 24.23 22 -11.3% 2 Technical correction in a long term uptrend 30.00 23.8% 22.30 -8.0%
Dollar Index 93.67 96 2.5% 2 Tactical stop below 92 94.00 0.3% 92.00 -1.8%
Euro/Dollar 1.1743 1.1490 -2.2% 2 Tactical stop above 1.20 1.2000 2.2% 1.1690 -0.5%
Cable 1.2817 1.2000 -6.4% 2 Technical pullback 1.3000 1.4% 1.2730 -0.7%
Dollar/Yen 104.55 no target Safe Haven Currency / Risk Off Play 106.00 1.4% 104.00 -0.5%
Dollar/CHF 0.9158 no target Safe Haven Currency / Risk Off Play 0.93 1.0% 0.90 -1.7%
Euro/CHF 1.0754 1.14 6.0% 1 Risk of upside following monthly breakout. 1.14 target as long as 1.065 holds 1.0860 1.0% 1.0730 -0.2%
Bund 174.62 no target Constructive pattern 175.00 0.2% 173.56 -0.6%
Italian BTP 147.40 143 -3.0% 1 Weakest bond market. Take short positions 148.00 0.4% 145.30 -1.4%
T-Note 139.6094 no target Constructive pattern 140.00 0.3% 137.50 -1.5%
Long Bond 176.7188 180 1.9% 1 Constructive pattern 180.00 1.9% 172.31 -2.5%
WTI Crude Oil 39.63 no target 45.00 13.6% 37.70 -4.9%
Bitcoin 10'465 15'000 43.3% 2 Breakout confirmed 14'000 33.8% 10'000 -4.4%
Currencies
Resistance Support
Bonds
Short Term Price Action Precious
Metals
The Dollar Index
The
Dollar Index is rebounding amid a rise in risk aversion and as the market was extremely short the
The EUR/USD
September 22, 2020
17
The
Euro rebound has been short lived. Today, the pair has opened below its 50D MA for the first time since
May. We continue to expect a pullback to 1.14 to 1.1490 with an intermediate support at 1.1689 (and a strong
resistance at 1.20) amid a rebound of risk aversion.
The Pound
The
Pound remains the weakest of the major currencies against the Dollar amid Brexit uncertainties and fears
of a rate cut in the UK. It failed to break above its resistance line and is poised to drop further.
US Long Bond – 240 Min
September 22, 2020
19
The
US Long Bond is in a constructive inversed H&S pattern in the short term with more upside potential to
180 as a first target.
Gold – Daily
As expected
Gold is also suffering from some profit taking (and from the strength of the Dollar) and we expect
the precious to drop along with stocks in the first phase of the rebound in risk aversion. Potential downside is
1’800 / 1’850 as a first target.
Silver – Daily
September 22, 2020
21
Crude Oil
Crude Oil jumped back in its trading range on shrinking US stockpiles but could weaken again as a rebound of
virus cases raises fears on new confinement measures in Europe.
Bitcoin
September 22, 2020
23
Bitcoin rebounded on the 10’000 level and remains in breakout mode for the time being.
Accumulate on weakness.
Contacts
Capital Union Bank Ltd.
CUB Financial Center, Lyford Cay
P.O. Box AP 59223
Nassau, Bahamas
capitalunionbank.com
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