Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
May 2015
This document is exclusively for use by Professional Clients and Financial Advisers inContinental Europe and Professional Clients in the UK and for Qualified Investors in Switzerland and is not for consumer use. Please do not redistribute.
Contents
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Investment team and philosophy
Investment process
Portfolio positioning
Portfolio performance
Appendix
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
3 months 1 year 3 years Since
managed* Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
MSCI World index
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Fund profile
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Source: Lipper as at 31 March 2015. Fund performance figures are shown for the A Acc share class, in USD on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of reinvested income and net of ongoing charges and portfolio transaction costs. The figures do not reflect the entry charge paid by individual investors. Benchmark source:
Investment
objective
Aims to generate a rising level of
income, together with long-term
capital growth, investing primarily in
global equities
Fund inception
2 March 2009
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
has been managed by Invesco since
5 July 2010
Benchmark
MSCI World index ND
Fund manager
Nick Mustoe
(Supported by the Invesco Perpetual
Global Equity Income Group)
Investment
philosophy and
process
Unconstrained, valuation-led,
bottom-up investment approach
We aim to construct a high
conviction portfolio of the best global
quality income ideas
No. of holdings
40 – 70
Market cap
All cap
Average holding
period
3 years
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Invesco Perpetual Global Equity Income Group
Bringing together the best regional quality income ideas
Specialist regional income managers
Name
Role
Industry experience
(years)
Firm tenure
(years)
Simon Clinch
US - regional specialist
17
3
Stephanie Butcher
Europe ex UK – regional specialist
21
12
Mark Barnett
UK – regional specialist
23
19
Tim Dickson
Asia ex Japan – regional specialist
22
7
Tony Roberts
Japan – regional specialist
20
15
Management
Nick Mustoe
Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Perpetual
30
5
Strategy oversight and implementation
Martin Weiss
Investment Strategist
24
10
Arwel Green
Product Manager, Global Equities & Multi-Asset
14
14
Product Director
John Botham
Product Director, Global Equities
22
1
7
Invesco Perpetual Global Equity Income Group
The benefits of our team approach
Seasoned fund managers, not analysts
Best of breed stocks - the highest conviction quality income ideas from
regional portfolios
Ownership of the idea within the portfolio
Portfolio construction experience and expertise
Investment philosophy
Quality income and capital upside
We seek companies that:
Can
grow margins
&
increase financial returns
across an economic cycle
Exhibit
strong and sustainable free cash flow
Engage in
capital allocation that benefits shareholders
We believe offer
attractive income and capital upside
opportunities
Investment process
High Conviction
Unconstrained
Valuation driven
Competition for capital
Typically 40 – 70 stocks.
Position sizes are based
on risk/reward
assessment
Multi-level system of risk
management
Ideas are generated from
the research capability of
our regional equity
investment teams.
Idea generation
Exhaustive bottom-up
analysis of the business
and its valuation
Comprehensive
understanding of the
industry
Must meet our quality
income criteria.
Fundamental research
Portfolio construction
& risk management
Investment process
Idea generation
11
Source: Invesco Perpetual as at 31 March 2015. For illustrative purposes only.
Regional equity investment
teams
Over 15,000 companies
All market coverage
Best regional income ideas
5 regional income
specialists
The best regional quality
income ideas
GEIG
Invesco Perpetual has a long history
of successful active equity income
investing
Ideas are sourced from the
Henley-based equity investment team (32
members)
Deep knowledge of local markets is
key to identifying attractive regional
income opportunities
5 regional income specialists,
represent the wider team
The best regional quality income
ideas are presented to the Global
Equity Income Group (GEIG)
Investment process
Fundamental research
Company valuation
Financials Company management Macro/ IndustryFinancials
We seek to understand current and future:
Revenues
Margins
Return on capital
Balance sheet structure and stability
Earnings and cash flow volatility
Company management
Capital allocation and dividend policy
Alignment of interests
Track record and strategic vision
Corporate governance
Macro/Industry
We seek to assess the:
Drivers of a business and its position within the
industry
Competitive and regulatory environment
Key high level risks and opportunities
Our approach is valuation-led and focuses on companies with strong balance
sheets, growing dividends and attractive organic growth opportunities.
Investment process
Portfolio construction
13
For illustrative purposes only.
Competition for capital: each fund manager pitches their best ideas to the
Global Equity Income Group for debate and challenge.
Consideration given to:
- Investment case
- Dividend income growth potential
- Relative attraction to existing holdings and geographical alternatives in the same
sector
- Absolute and relative risk/reward opportunity
CIO confirms stock inclusion and weight in portfolio, based on input from
debate
Portfolio is monitored to ensure diversification
Each individual fund manager ‘owns’ the stock once added and is
responsible for monitoring and updating
Holdings are sold if:
- They become fully valued
- There is a change in the investment thesis for that stock
- There exists a more attractive investment opportunity elsewhere.
Portfolio of our best
quality income ideas
globally
Investment process
Constant portfolio monitoring
Prompt
portfolio
review
Po
rtfolio
ove
rs
ig
h
t
Global macro
insight
Po
rtfolio positioning
and analysis
Constant
monitoring
Regional specialists
Chief Investment
Officer
Investment strategist
Investment oversight
team
Day to day
contact with market
Ongoing analysis of
portfolio holdings
Investment process
Multi-faceted risk management
Independent Risk Function
Global Performance and
Risk Management Team
CIO Challenge
– Adherence to philosophy
and process
– Scenario modelling
– Assesses conviction, and
rationale for holdings
– Portfolio behaviour under
different market
conditions
15
17
Our outlook for global equities in 2015
Equities look broadly fair value at a global level
But economic growth looks underpinned, hence we would expect
continued earnings growth
Valuations look better in Europe, Japan and Asia versus the US
on most valuation measures
Europe is our biggest overweight, we are more optimistic than
consensus on the growth outlook
We have a clear preference for economically sensitive stocks,
defensive earnings/bond proxies are overvalued in our view
Signs of structural change in Japan interest us, though
identifying attractive companies fulfilling our criteria is proving
more difficult
Source; Invesco as at June 2015.
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Current sector positioning
We see
economically sensitive sectors looking better value
than defensives or ‘ bond proxies’
We are
cautious on utilities and technology
stocks
We
like financials and industrials
, particularly in Europe
We have
neutralised our long standing underweight in the
energy
19
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2011
2012
2013
2014E 2015E 2016E
B3 Capital Surplus/(deficit) (EUR bn, LHS) B3 CET1 (%, RHS)
European Banking sector*: capital deficit turning to a
surplus, 2011-2016E (€bn)
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014E
2016E
Europe Dividend Yield
Banks Dividend Yield
Capital re-build presents the opportunity for stronger
European banks to grow dividends
Source: Citi Research as at 14 January 2015. Capital Surplus/(deficit) is before 2014-2016E dividends. Calculations assume minimum mortgage risk-weights of 15% with a +50% surcharge on internal model-based market risk RWAs. Target B3 CET 1 ratio is calculated by applying a B3 “fully loaded” ratio of between 10%-14.5% to each bank (based on Citi 2016E target forecasts). Each bank’s corresponding deficit/surplus has been calculated and cumulatively added to generate a sector deficit/surplus. For illustrative purposes only. *Stocks included: Banco Santander, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Bank of Ireland, Crédit Agricole, Natixis, Société Générale, Banco BPI, Banco Popolare, Banco Popular, Bankinter, Banco de Sabadell, BP Milano, CaixaBank, Commerzbank, Erste Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, KBC, Mediobanca, Monte Dei Paschi, Piraeus Bank, UBI Banca, Unicredit, Credit Suisse, HSBC, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Standard Chartered, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Raiffeisen Bank International, RBS, Danske Bank, DNB, UBS, Nordea, SE Banken AB, SHB, Swedbank. 2014E to 2016E based on Citi Research estimates. Right-hand chart: UBS European Equity Strategy as at 29 August 2014. 2014E-2016E are based on UBS estimates. Data is based on UBS European coverage universe which consists of c.600 companies with total market cap of €7.5trn. UBS European banks universe consists of c.40 companies with a market cap of c.€900bn. *B3 CET 1 = Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 ratio.
European Banks dividend yield vs. the market
Globally, cyclicals looking cheap relative to
defensives
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan 80
Jan 85
Jan 90
Jan 95
Jan 00
Jan 05
Jan 10
Jan 15
Source: Invesco and Datastream as at 7 May 2015. Data shows price/book value ratio between four cyclical sectors (oil, industrials,
21
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Year
Parity
Energy
Understandably unloved at present
Source: Empirical Research Partners Analysis as at 7 May 2015. 1Capitalisation-weighted data.
Integrated oils relative to all other large cap stocks
1Relative
price to book ratios, 1950 to May 2015
Low levels of leverage on corporate
balance sheets
Renewed management focus on
shareholder returns
Significant capex and opex reductions sow
seeds for rising prices and better
profitability in 2016 and 2017.
Dividends still secure in 2015 even at
Depressed earnings and valuation
Stock example: Aircraft manufacturer
Source: Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as at April 2015. For illustrative purposes only.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15E
20
16E
20
17E
20
18E
20
19E
20
20E
P&L Expensed R&D (€mn)
Deliveries (RHS)
Historic and projected aircraft deliveries & P&L expensed
R&D (€mn)
Leading manufacturer of commercial
planes. Also produces military equipment
Strong backlog order book
Current profitability and cash generation
impacted by high R&D costs and
investment…
Net cash on balance sheet
Should lead to enhanced cash returns
2016 onwards.
23
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Depressed sentiment and valuation
Example: What happens in Vegas, happens in Macau?
Source: Chart: Bloomberg as at 31 March 2015. Recent news bullet points sourced from newsletters and Chinese daily newspapers published between 10 February and 27 March 2015. For illustrative purposes only.
American casino and resort operating Co.
Share
price, USD
Leading global casino operator
Strong position in structural growth
markets in Asia
Chinese anti corruption drive provides
long term buying opportunity
Valued on 15x 2016 earnings, 4% yield
Entry point
December 2014
Recent news
February 2015:
Tycoon linked to
Macau casino laundering executed by
China
March 2015:
Fight against graft
targets Macau casinos
0.24 -1.72 6.35 -0.37 -2.07 1.64 3.98 -8.15 2.48 -3.16 3.65 2.89 2.20 1.63 2.76 1.49 2.76 1.49 3.95 4.01
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Energy Materials Industrials Cons. Disc. Cons. Staples Health Care Financials IT Telecoms Utilities
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund active sector weights
MSCI World index sector yields
Active sector weights vs. MSCI World index sector yields (%)
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
25
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Top ten holdings
Source: Invesco & Bloomberg as at 31 March 2015.
1Last 12 month dividend yield. As at 6 May 2015.
2Based on Bloomberg projected compound annual growth rate of dividend over three years. As at 6 May 2015.
Holdings may change without notice. This is no financial advice and no recommendation to buy/hold/sell these securities.
Stocks
Portfolio weight (%)
Dividend yield
1(%)
3 year dividend CAGR
2(%)
Novartis
3.49
2.79
8.27
BT
3.29
2.51
11.96
Legal & General
3.13
4.34
12.46
Pfizer
2.79
3.23
6.92
Reed Elsevier
2.73
2.42
3.71
Amgen
2.67
1.65
17.13
United Technologies
2.63
2.10
6.49
British American Tobacco
2.56
4.13
5.72
Roche
2.42
3.05
8.44
Airbus 2.33
1.95
6.27
28.13
38.63
21.04
2.67
5.53
2.04
61.25
17.81
21.04
8.62
1.78
2.89
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
North America
Europe ex. UK
United Kingdom
Japan
Pacific Rim
Australasia
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
MSCI World Index
*
Portfolio breakdown (%)
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
27
Shorter-term concerns ignore the potential for
recovery and attractive valuations in Europe…
Cyclically adjusted PEs for different geographies
Current cyclically
adjusted PE (x)
LT Median (x)
(Discount)/Premium
US
126.0
22.6
15%
Asia Pacific exc Japan AC
619.1
20.8
-8%
Europe
117.6
19.5
-10%
Switzerland
123.2
21.3
9%
UK
114.7
18.2
-19%
EMU
314.5
20.5
-29%
Germany
121.3
20.1
6%
France
217.9
23.0
-22%
Spain
414.1
19.2
-26%
Italy
512.6
25.7
-51%
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: JP Morgan Cazenove, Thomson Datastream as at 8 April 2015. 1Underlying data started from 31
January 1970 for MSCI Europe, MSCI US, MSCI UK , MSCI Germany and MSCI Switzerland. 2Underlying data started from 30 September 1971. MSCI index. 3Underlying data started from 31 January 1973. Thomson Datastream index. 4Underlying data started from 31 January 1980. MSCI index.5Underlying data started
from 29 April 1984. MSCI index. 6Index captures large and mid cap representation across 4 of 5 Developed Markets countries excluding Japan and 8 Emerging
Markets countries in the Asia Pacific region. Underlying data started from 30 November 1995. MSCI index. Current cyclically adjusted PE (x) as at 8 April 2015. All cyclically adjusted P/E data based on 10 year average nominal earnings.
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Net performance
29
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: Morningstar © 2015 as at 31 March 2015. *Periods greater than one year are annualized. Fund and sector performance figures are shown for the A share class in USD on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of gross reinvested income and net of ongoing charges and portfolio transaction costs. The figures do not reflect the entry charge paid by individual investors. Benchmark source: Invesco, net return, in USD. **Invesco has managed the fund since 5 July 2010.
Calendar year returns USD (%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund A Acc. USD
9.29
4.90
15.07
28.89
-0.84
MSCI World index
11.76
-5.54
15.83
26.68
4.94
GIF OS Global Equity Income Sector
-Quartile
2
1
2
1
3
Annualised returns USD (%)*
YTD
1 year
3 years
Since
managed**
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund A Acc. USD
2.59
-0.03
39.62
14.64
MSCI World index
2.31
6.03
41.20
13.90
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
An attractive risk-return profile
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Annualised return
Annualised risk
Invesco Global
Equity Income
Fund
MSCI World
index
Global Equity
Income sector
Higher risk
Higher return
Higher risk
Lower return
Lower risk
Higher return
Lower risk
Lower return
Risk versus return (%)
31
Invesco Global Equity Income Fund
Underlying portfolio characteristics
Source: Bloomberg as at 31 May 2015. Characteristics are trailing 12 month figures.
Characteristic
Portfolio
MSCI World index
Dividend Yield
3.3%
2.4%
Price to Earnings
19.5x
19.8x
Free Cashflow Yield
8.5%
4.4%
Invesco Global Equity Income strategy
Summary
An unconstrained approach
Means that we seek the best quality income ideas wherever they may be
Regional income expertise
Brings together our best quality income ideas globally
Detailed fundamental analysis
Is valuation-led and identifies companies demonstrating quality income characteristics
Conviction-led portfolio construction
Means that we only include our best ideas and size our positions accordingly
Independent risk management
A consistent investment approach
-4
-2
0
2
4
Portfolio Style Tilt – Dec 2014
-4
-2
0
2
4
35
Outlook for global equities
80
90
100
110
120
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 15
Apr 15
S&P500
Euro Stoxx 50
FTSE 100
Nikkei 225
Source: LHC: Bloomberg as at 27 April 2015. All data shown in US$. 1 January 2014 = 100. RHC: Barclays 7 April 2015. EM = Emerging Markets.
-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Dec 12
Jul 13
Feb 14
Sep 14
Apr 15
EM
US
Japan
Europe-ex-UK
UK
Stock market performance
Earnings revisions
Japan and Europe
outperforming in
2015
Strong dollar
hurting US
earnings revisions
17.3
15.7
15.4
13.7
12.7
16.8
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
USA
UK
Japan
APxJ
EM
The
World
+/-1 Stdev.
Current
Median
Outlook for global equities
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
MSCI Japan
MSCI AC Asia ex
Japan
MSCI UK
Contribution
to YTD total returns
(%pt)
EPS Change
PE Re-rating
Dividends
Markets are rising due to rerating,
not earnings growth
Markets are not looking cheap
Total contribution of EPS
Change
, PE Re-rating & Dividends
37
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
%
Outlook for global equities
Wide dispersion in sector returns over the last 12 months
Source: Bloomberg as at 27 April 2015 in US$. Global sectors are MSCI World sectors.
Important information
This marketing document is exclusively for use by Professional Clients and Financial Advisers in Continental Europe and Qualified Investors in Switzerland. Data as at 31.03.2015, unless otherwise stated. This document is not for consumer use, please do not redistribute. It is not subject to German regulatory requirements that ensure impartiality of financial analysis. Therefore, the prohibition of trading before the release of financial analysis does not apply.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.Where Invesco has expressed views and opinions, these may change and are not to be construed as investment advice. The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange-rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
For more information on our funds, please refer to the most up to date relevant fund and share class-specific Key Investor Information Documents, the latest Annual or Interim Reports and the latest Prospectus, and constituent documents. This information is available using the contact details of the issuer and is without charge. Further information on our products is available using the contact details shown.
Whilst great care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, no responsibility can be accepted for any errors, mistakes or omissions or for any action taken in reliance thereon. This marketing document is not an invitation to subscribe for shares in the fund and is by way of information only, it should not be considered financial advice. The performance data shown does not take account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. Any reference to a ranking, a rating or an award provides no guarantee for future performance results and is not constant over time. Persons interested in acquiring the fund should inform themselves as to (i) the legal requirements in the countries of their nationality, residence, ordinary residence or domicile; (ii) any foreign exchange controls and (iii) any relevant tax consequences. As with all investments, there are associated risks. This document is by way of information only. Asset management services are provided by Invesco in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulations. The fund is available only in jurisdictions where its promotion and sale is permitted. Not all share classes of this fund may be available for public sale in all jurisdictions and not all share classes are the same nor do they necessarily suit every investor. Fee structure and minimum investment levels may vary dependent on share class chosen. Please check the most recent version of the fund prospectus in relation to the criteria for the individual share classes and contact your local Invesco office for full details of the fund registration status in your jurisdiction. Please be advised that the information provided in this document is referring to Class A (accumulation - USD) exclusively. This fund is domiciled in Luxembourg.
Denmark: The fund is not registered for public distribution in this jurisdiction. This document is provided only to Professional Clients and must not be redistributed to retail clients. Germany, Austria and Switzerland: This document is issued in Germany by Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH regulated by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. This document is issued in Austria by Invesco Asset Management Österreich GmbH and in Switzerland by Invesco Asset Management (Schweiz) AG. Subscriptions of shares are only accepted on the basis of the most up to date legal offering
documents. The legal offering documents (fund & share class specific Key Investor Information Document, prospectus, annual & semi-annual reports, articles and trustee deed) are available free of charge at our website and in hardcopy and local language from the issuers: Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, D-60322 Frankfurt am Main, Invesco Asset Management Österreich GmbH, Rotenturmstrasse 16-18, A-1010 Wien, and Invesco Asset Management (Schweiz) AG, Talacker 34, CH-8001 Zurich, who acts as a representative for the funds distributed in Switzerland. Paying agent for the fund distributed in Switzerland: BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zürich. This fund is domiciled in Luxembourg.