Sustainable Aquaculture Development Planning Through GIS Modeling: An Experience From Timor-Leste

Sustainable Aquaculture Development

Planning Through GIS Modeling:

An Experience From Timor-Leste

Shwu Jiau Teoh1_{, Raimundo Mau}2_{, Julio da Cruz}2_,

Jharendu Pant1 _{& Michael Phillips}1

1 _{WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia}

2 _{National Directorate of Fisheries and Aquaculture (NDFA),}

Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAF), Timor-Leste - World Aquaculture Adelaide 2014 -

Outline



Background



The Process



Results

Background



Timor-Leste (also know as East Timor)

is a new country, achieved

independence on 20 May 2002



Aquaculture

has been identified by the

Government of Timor-Leste as one of

the

options for livelihood diversification



Widespread

poverty and malnutrition

:

•

About 40% of the population living

below US$0.55/day;

•

Malnutrition among children under

5 years estimated at:

− Underweight: 45%

Background



Per capita annual fish consumption:

•

Timor-Leste:

6.1kg

(RFLP/FAO, 2011)

•

Global:

18.9kg

(FAO, 2011)



Current annual fish supply in

Timor-Leste

:

•

Capture fisheries:

3,200t

(FAO, 2007)

•

Aquaculture:

46t

(NDFA, 2010)



To reach closer to global average,

Timor-Leste needs a fish supply

of

30,000t

by 2030

Background



Government of Timor-Leste developed

National Aquaculture Development

Strategy (2012-2030)

:

•

Supported by

WorldFish

•

Funded by

RFLP/FAO

and

CTSP



The Strategy emphasizes the

development of

aquaculture in agro-ecological ‘niches’ area

with

favorable resource-base and social-economic contexts



Key targets of the Aquaculture Strategy:

•

Annual fish supply:

30,000t by 2030

(12,000t to come from aquaculture)

•

Average per capita fish consumption:

15kg/capita/year by 2020

http://www.worldfishcenter.org/resource_ centre/WF_3602.pdf

The Process



The process involved aquaculture suitability

mapping of area taking a set of biophysical

and socio-economic factors into account



A

simplified Geographical Information

Systems (GIS) modeling using multi-criteria

evaluation (MCE)

was used for delineating

recommendation domains for freshwater

aquaculture across Timor-Leste

The Process

Identifying influencing factors (criteria)

1

Weighing the factors

2

Mapping indicators for factors

3

Applying suitability rating to indicator maps

4

Mapping the suitability sub-models (MCE)

5

Mapping overall suitability model (MCE)

6

Consultation with stakeholders

Facilitator, stakeholder & expert inputs

GIS/Mapping tasks

GIS technical expertise & software required

Identifying Influencing Factors/criteria

1

 Consultation meeting with national experts organized:

•

National Directorate of Fisheries and Aquaculture (NDFA)

•

National Directorate of Agriculture

•

National Directorate of Forestry

•

Agricultural Land use GIS (ALGIS)

 The experts were asked to list down factors (major determinants) for freshwater

aquaculture development

 The discussions were guided by asking a few key questions:

•

Which area(s) have high potential for

aquaculture development in Timor-Leste?

Weighing the Factors

(based on their relative importance)

2

 The determinants for freshwater aquaculture development are:

•

biophysical & socio-economic

 All factors were grouped to construct sub-models

 Each factor was weighed based on its relative importance in every single sub-model  Each sub-models was then weighed in another round to produce the overall model

Boxes:

Green: biophysical factors

Mapping Indicators for Factors

3

Factor Group Indicators Data sources

(suitability sub-model) (proxy function) Biop hy sic al

Biophysical _{Water (water supply for pond)}

Irrigated rice field (supplemental water supply from irrigation system)

Natural lakes (natural conditions for aquaculture) Slope steepness (ease of pond construction)

ALGIS ALGIS ALGIS CIAT-CSI SRTM v4.1 Socio -ec on omic Inputs &

Experiences Number of fish farmers (experiences with aquaculture)

Access to hatcheries (access to seed) Access to different feeds (access to feed)

NDFA,ALGIS NDFA,ALGIS ALGIS

Market & Accessibility

Population densities (local demand) Access to markets (market to sell fish) Proximity to road network (infrastructure) Coastal/Inland sucos (access to sea fish)

ALGIS

NDFA,ALGIS ALGIS

ALGIS

Mapping Indicators for Factors

3

 Indicator maps were generated from data layers collected

 River Network  DEM

Create proximity cost distance surface to rivers / streams by take into

consideration the slope

Proximity to rivers & streams (unitless)  DEM Slope steepness (percent) Near Far Gentle Steep

Water supply (Proximity to rivers & streams)

Applying Suitability Rating to Indicator

Maps

4

 Each indicator map was standardized to a common measurement scale of suitability rating ranging from 0 to 255 (0 = not suitable for aquaculture; 255 highly suitable for aquaculture)

 Need expert knowledge for applying the suitability rating

Apply suitability rating

0: Least

255: Most suitable

Water supply (Proximity to rivers & streams)

Mapping the Suitability Sub-models (MCE)

5

15%

Water supply (proximity to rivers & streams)

Supplemental water supply (location of rice field)

Natural lakes (location of lakes)

Terrain (slope steepness)

45% 15% 25%

=

+

+

+

Biophysical Sub-model

Combined indicator maps using

Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) Market & Accessibility Inputs & Experiences Biophysical Least Most suitable

Mapping Overall Suitability Model (MCE)

6

45% 35% 20%

=

+

+

Market & Accessibility Inputs & Experiences

Biophysical Least suitable Most suitable Moderately suitable Suitable Overall Model Reclassify Sub-Models Least Most suitable

Results: Harnessing Freshwater Fish

Production Potential

 1 ha : 3 tons productions  Focal districts: * Bobonaro * Ermera * Baucau Least suitable Most suitable Moderately suitable Suitable

Drilling Down to Identify Limitations

Knowing the limitations helps determine what interventions are needed

Biophysical Inputs & Experiences Market & Accessibility Overall Suitability 1: Least suitable 4: Most suitable 2: Moderately suitable 3: Suitable Least Most suitable

Sub-Models (fuzzy) Most limiting factors

0 -255 least-most suitable

Most limiting factor

0 -255 least-most suitable

fuzz_suitbiophy

Conclusions & Recommendations

 GIS is a useful decision support tool :

•

Comprehensive database/map layers generated showing spatial

distribution of area potential for aquaculture development in Timor-Leste

•

GOs/NGOs prioritizing aquaculture development interventions in high potential areas

•

In Sucu ida, Produto ida (one village one product) program, the

government is promoting aquaculture in nine sub-districts of 3 high aquaculture potential districts

Conclusions & Recommendations

 Quality of suitability maps largely depends on the accuracy & quality of available data (spatial & temporal availability)

 Further refinement of the maps can be done using updated databases over time

 Weightage given to each of the factors depends on judicious decision made by local experts/stakeholder – hence, a thorough discussion on each of the factors is vital