MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK:

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

MACROECONOMIC

OUTLOOK:

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SHOWS

THE FIRST SIGNS OF RECOVERY

AND GOVERNMENT PUSHES

FOR A POSITIVE AGENDA.

GLOBAL ECONOMY SEEMS

BOTTOMING.

Fabiana D’Atri

(6)

6

MAIN MESSAGE:

WE SEE SOME RISKS FOR

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY FOR NEXT

QUARTERS. THOSE RISKS ARE IN

DIRECTION OF A HEATING

ECONOMY.

GLOBAL ECONOMY GOING TO A

“NEW NORMAL” PHASE.

(7)

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE

SECOND HALF OF 2012, WHAT BRINGS

DOWN RISK AVERSION IN GLOBAL

MARKETS.

WORLD ECONOMY DECELERATION

WITHOUT RUPTURE.

(8)

SOURCE: FMI/WEO FORECAST: BRADESCO 8

WORLD GDP GROWTH

1993 - 2013

2.1 3.4 _3.3 3.8 4.1 2.6 3.6 4.7 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.9 4.5 5.2 5.4 2.8 -0.6 5.0

3.8

3.0

3.5 3.5 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ₂01 1 * 2 0 1 2 * 2 0 1 3 *

TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO PIB DO MUNDO (SOMA DOS PIBs OBTIDA PELA PARIDADE DO PODER DE COMPRA) 1993 - 2012. Fonte: FMI/WEO. Elaboração: Bradesco

(9)

EURO ZONE: REAL GDP GROWTH (%)

1995-2013

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 9 2.8 1.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 4.0 2.1 1.1 _0.9 2.1 1.8 3.4 3.1 0.4 -4.2 1.7 1.5 -0.7 0.5 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3

(10)

10

US: REAL GDP GROWTH (%)

1980-2013

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORCAST: BRADESCO -0.3 2.5 -1.9 4.5 7.2 3.5 3.2 3.6 1.9 -0.2 3.4 2.9 4.1 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.8 4.1 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.5 3.1 2.7 1.9 -0.3 -3.5 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.5 4.3 0.9 3.8 1.8 2.8 2.2 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 _2012* _2013*

(11)

11

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

CHINA: REAL GDP GROWTH (%)

1981-2013

5.2 9.3 11.2 15.2 13.2 8.5 11.511.3 4.1 _3.8 9.2 14.214.0 13.1 10.9 10.0 9.3 7.8 7.6 8.4 8.3 9.1 10.010.1 11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.2 7.5 7.6 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg

(12)

12



Brazil is much more sensible to China than to Europe. But

China is much more sensible to Europe than to US;



International outlook is deflationary for Brazil, excluding

agriculture prices due to supply shocks, mainly of grains;



High levels of spare capacity in the global manufacturing

industry is a challenge for the local manufacturing sector;



Gradual recovery on business expectations will impact

positively on productive investments.

MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR

THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

(13)

BRAZILIAN EXCHANGE RATE (R$/US$)

R$/ US$

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO 13

2.392

2.500

2.421

2.234

2.014

1.709

1.731

1.867

1.655

1.729

1.632

1.534

1.901

1.688

1.702

1.869

2.081

2.090

1.989

2.031

1.50 1.70 1.90 2.10 2.30 2.50 0 2 /1 0 /0 8 0 2 /1 1 /0 8 0 2 /1 2 /0 8 0 2 /0 1 /0 9 0 2 /0 2 /0 9 0 2 /0 3 /0 9 0 2 /0 4 /0 9 0 2 /0 5 /0 9 0 2 /0 6 /0 9 0 2 /0 7 /0 9 0 2 /0 8 /0 9 0 2 /0 9 /0 9 0 2 /1 0 /0 9 0 2 /1 1 /0 9 0 2 /1 2 /0 9 0 2 /0 1 /1 0 0 2 /0 2 /1 0 0 2 /0 3 /1 0 0 2 /0 4 /1 0 0 2 /0 5 /1 0 0 2 /0 6 /1 0 0 2 /0 7 /1 0 0 2 /0 8 /1 0 0 2 /0 9 /1 0 0 2 /1 0 /1 0 0 2 /1 1 /1 0 0 2 /1 2 /1 0 0 2 /0 1 /1 1 0 2 /0 2 /1 1 0 2 /0 3 /1 1 0 2 /0 4 /1 1 0 2 /0 5 /1 1 0 2 /0 6 /1 1 0 2 /0 7 /1 1 0 2 /0 8 /1 1 0 2 /0 9 /1 1 0 2 /1 0 /1 1 0 2 /1 1 /1 1 0 2 /1 2 /1 1 0 2 /0 1 /1 2 0 2 /0 2 /1 2 0 2 /0 3 /1 2 0 2 /0 4 /1 2 0 2 /0 5 /1 2 0 2 /0 6 /1 2 0 2 /0 7 /1 2 0 2 /0 8 /1 2 0 2 /0 9 /1 2 0 2 /1 0 /1 2

DECEMBER 2009

R$ 1.74 / US$

DECEMBER 2008

R$ 2.34 / US$

DECEMBER 2010

R$ 1.67 / US$

DECEMBER 2011

R$ 1.88 / US$

DECEMBER 2012

R$ 2.00 / US$

DECEMBER 2013

R$ 2.00 / US$

(14)

AFTER SOME FRUSTRATION

WITH FIRST HALF OF 2012,

WHAT DO WE EXPECT GOING

FORWARD?

THERE ARE FAVORABLE SIGNS

COMING FOR INDUSTRIAL

SECTOR AND INVESTMENTS.

(15)

BRAZILIAN REAL GDP GROWTH (SAAR)

1.4 2.1 1.4 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.6 -3.9 -1.6 1.5 2.6 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2 0 0 6 q 0 4 2 0 0 7 q 0 1 2 0 0 7 q 0 2 2 0 0 7 q 0 3 2 0 0 7 q 0 4 2 0 0 8 q 0 1 2 0 0 8 q 0 2 2 0 0 8 q 0 3 2 0 0 8 q 0 4 2 0 0 9 q 0 1 2 0 0 9 q 0 2 2 0 0 9 q 0 3 2 0 0 9 q 0 4 2 0 1 0 q 0 1 2 0 1 0 q 0 2 2 0 1 0 q 0 3 2 0 1 0 q 0 4 2 0 1 1 q 0 1 2 0 1 1 q 0 2 2 0 1 1 q 0 3 2 0 1 1 q 0 4 2 0 1 2 q 0 1 2 0 1 2 q 0 2 2 0 1 2 q 0 3 2 0 1 2 q 0 4

VARIAÇÃO TRIMESTRAL DO PIB (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS) FONTE: IBGE

ELABORAÇÃO:

15

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

(16)

RETAIL SALES AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BY

VOLUME – THREE-MONTH AVERAGE OF

SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED SERIES

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

January 2003 = 100

16

121.3

141.2

149.5

147.8

167.2

177.2

179.2

184.8

197.9

112.9

119.0

131.9

108.2

120.4

131.5

130.4

130.9

125.6

9

n

o

v

/0

9

ja

n

/1

0

m

a

r/

1

0

m

a

i/

1

ja

n

/1

1

m

a

r/

1

m

a

i/

1

ju

l/

1

s

e

t/

1

n

o

v

/1

1

ja

n

/1

2

m

a

r/

1

2

m

a

i/

1

2

ju

l/

1

2

Vendas no Comércio

Produção Industrial

Janeiro 2003 = 100 Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco

VOLUME DE VENDAS NO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA RESTRITO E PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIA L - MÉDIA MÓVEL

TRIMESTRAL DAS SÉRIES DESSAZONALIZADAS Janeiro 2003 = 100

Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco

RETAIL SALES

(17)

17

WHY DO WE BELIEVE IN

THE INDUSTRIAL

RECOVERY IN 2013?

INVENTORY CYCLE COMING TO

AN END, PUBLIC INCENTIVES,

DEPRECIATED EXCHANGE RATE,

LOW INTEREST RATES,

PROTECTIONISM ETC.

(18)

100,0

109.3

103.4

82.9

95.6

90.1

98.5

78.2

112.4

94.3

101.7

105.7

116.9

75.7

90.6

116.5

114.5

105.0

65.0

75.0

85.0

95.0

105.0

115.0

125.0

s e t/ 9 9 ja n /0 0 m a i/ 0 0 s e t/ 0 0 ja n /0 1 m a i/ 0 1 s e t/ 0 1 ja n /0 2 m a i/ 0 2 s e t/ 0 2 ja n /0 3 m a i/ 0 3 s e t/ 0 3 ja n /0 4 m a i/ 0 4 s e t/ 0 4 ja n /0 5 m a i/ 0 5 s e t/ 0 5 ja n /0 6 m a i/ 0 6 s e t/ 0 6 ja n /0 7 m a i/ 0 7 s e t/ 0 7 ja n /0 8 m a i/ 0 8 s e t/ 0 8 ja n /0 9 m a i/ 0 9 s e t/ 0 9 ja n /1 0 m a i/ 1 0 s e t/ 1 0 ja n /1 1 m a i/ 1 1 s e t/ 1 1 ja n /1 2 m a i/ 1 2 s e t/ 1 2

Índice de Confiança da Indústria - Série com ajuste sazonal

Fonte: FGV

SOURCE: FUNDAÇÃO GETÚLIO VARGAS, BRADESCO

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE

(19)

SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: ANNUAL VARIATION

2002 - 2013

IN %

19 2.73% 0.05% 8.30% 3.09% _2.82% 6.02% 3.10% -7.38% 10.47% 0.35% -2.50% 3.50% -9.0% -5.0% -1.0% 3.0% 7.0% 11.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL

(20)

SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO

(%)

20

TOTAL REAL INVESTMENTS (%). ANNUAL VARIATION

1996 - 2013

1.5 8.7 -0.3 -8.2 5.0 0.4 -5.2 -4.6 9.1 3.6 9.8 13.9 13.6 -6.7 21.3 4.7 -1.0 7.0 -12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 24.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 0 1 2 (p ) 2 0 1 3 (p )

(21)

RETAIL SALES – ANNUAL VARIATION – INCLUIDING

AUTO AND BUILDING MATERIALS SALES

2005-2013

21 SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO 3.1% 6.4% 13.6% 9.9% 6.8% 12.2% 6.6% 7.2% 6.5% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

VOLUME DE VENDAS DO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA INCLUINDO CARROS E MATERIAL DE

CONSTRUÇÃO (PMC AMPLIADA) - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 2005 - 2012

(22)

22

JOB MARKET IS HEATED, RETAIL

SALES PERFORMANCE IS

OUTSTANDING, HOUSEHOLD

INCOME AND CONSUMER

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AT A

HIGH LEVEL.

(23)

SOURCE: CAGED, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

NET CREATION OF FORMAL EMPLOYMENT

1996 - 2013

´

000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS

-271 -36 -582 -196 658 591 762 645 1,523 1,254 1,229 1,617 1,452 995 2,137 1,566 1,264 1,464 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 _2012* _2013*

GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL

1996 - 2013. Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): Bradesco

Em postos de trabalho

(24)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN

AREAS – YEARLY AVERAGE (2002 – 2013)

SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 24 9.9 10.0 9.3 7.9 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.6 _5.5 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TAXA DE DESEMPREGO

Fonte: IBGE

(25)

POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE,

EMPLOYED POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYED

191,8 162,8 101,1 92,7 8,4 0 50 100 150 200 250 População total PIA PEA População ocupada desempregados em milhões de pessoas TOTAL

POPULATION WORKING AGE POPULATION

LABOR FORCE EMPLOYED POPULATION

UNEMPLOYED

25

(26)

WORKFORCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND (2004 – 2011)

% ao ano

1,55%

2,45%

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%

PEA

OCUPADOS

CRESCIMENTO MÉDIO DOS ÚLTIMOS ANOS DA POPULAÇÃO OCUPADA E PEA

CRESCIMENTO DA OCUPAÇÃO VEM SENDO 0,9 PONTO PERCENTUAL ACIMA DA PEA

26

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

GROWHT IN DEMAND HAVE BEEN 0.9% ABOVE GROWTH

IN SUPPLY

LABOR FORCE EMPLOYED

(27)

REAL AVERAGE EMPLOYEE WAGE - YEAR-OVER-YEAR

GROWTH (2009 – 2012)

SOURCE: MTE, BRADESCO 2.5% -0.6% -1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 2.4% 5.1% 5.4% 6.6% 4.8% 2.6% 3.9% 2.2% 3.8% 3.0% 6.6% 6.1% 3.8% 4.7% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% ja n /0 9 fe v /0 9 m a r/ 0 9 a b r/ 0 9 m a i/ 0 9 ju n /0 9 ju l/ 0 9 a g o /0 9 s e t/ 0 9 o u t/ 0 9 n o v /0 9 d e z /0 9 ja n /1 0 fe v /1 0 m a r/ 1 0 a b r/ 1 0 m a i/ 1 0 ju n /1 0 ju l/ 1 0 a g o /1 0 s e t/ 1 0 o u t/ 1 0 n o v /1 0 d e z /1 0 ja n /1 1 fe v /1 1 m a r/ 1 1 a b r/ 1 1 m a i/ 1 1 ju n /1 1 ju l/ 1 1 a g o /1 1 s e t/ 1 1 o u t/ 1 1 n o v /1 1 d e z /1 1 ja n /1 2 fe v /1 2 m a r/ 1 2 a b r/ 1 2 m a i/ 1 2 ju n /1 2 ju l/ 1 2 a g o /1 2

Admitidos

Admitidos 27

(28)

BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991 - 2013

G:\Area Economica\BBV\Regina\ palestra agribusiness - arroz preços internos.xls

EM MIL TON

* Projeção

SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO 57.901 68.400 68.253 76.035 81.065 78.427 83.030 100.267 96.761 123.168 113.898 122.531 131.751 144.137 135.135 149.255 162.803 165.896 175.903 30.000 50.000 70.000 90.000 110.000 130.000 150.000 170.000 190.000 9 0 /9 1 9 1 /9 2 9 2 /9 3 9 3 /9 4 9 4 /9 5 9 5 /9 6 9 6 /9 7 9 7 /9 8 9 8 /9 9 9 9 /0 0 0 0 /0 1 0 1 /0 2 0 2 /0 3 0 3 /0 4 0 4 /0 5 0 5 /0 6 0 6 /0 7 0 7 /0 8 0 8 /0 9 0 9 /1 0 1 0 /1 1 1 1 /1 2 * 1 2 /1 3 *

em mil toneladas Produção Nacional de Grãos (Arroz, Feijão, Milho, Trigo, Soja, Algodão)Fonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco

(29)

BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL VARIATION

1984 - 2013

(%)

CRESCIMENTO DO PIB

1984 - 2012

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO 29 5.4 7.8 7.5 3.5 -0.1 3.2 -4.3 1.0 -0.5 4.7 5.3 4.4 2.1 3.4 0.0 0.3 4.3 1.3 2.7 1.1 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 1.6 4.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ₂01 2 * 2 0 1 3 *

Média dos 20 anos

anteriores: 2,7%

Média dos 10 anos:

4,0%

CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2012 Fonte: IBGE e IPEA

Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco

10 YEARS

AVERAGE: 4.0%

20 YEARS

AVERAGE:

2.7%

(30)

30

THE MARKET AND THE COMPANIES

MISUNDERSTOOD THE 7.5% GROWTH OF

2010 AS A PERMANENT SCENARIO.

NOW THEY OVERSTATE AGAIN,

PROJECTING THE 2% (OR LESS) GROWTH

OF 2012 AS A LASTING CONDITION FOR

THE COMING YEARS.

(31)

31

THE GROWTH MODEL IS

NOT YET EXHAUSTED,

BUT NEW DYNAMIC

SOURCES MUST COME

INTO PLAY SOON.

(32)

32,52 30,98 36,74 36,37 38,64 37,56 44,94 49,22 53,60 55,05 30,0 39,0 48,0 57,0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 20 08 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 SOURCE: CPS/FGV, BRADESCO

NEW MIDDLE CLASS (% SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION)

(33)

LATEST GOVERNMENT

MEASURES ARE

STRUCTURAL/LONG-TERM.

THIS IS THE OPPOSITE SEEN

IN THE FIRST HALF, WHEN

MEASURES WERE MORE

FOCUSED ON SHORT-TERM

TERM.

(34)

SOURCE: SNIC, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

CEMENT SALES – 1991 - 2013

34 27,335 23,993 25,046 28,063 34,505 37,92139,705 39,550 38,728 34,661 38,376 41,871 46,029 51,80851,547 59,191 63,929 68,497

73,554

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 _2012* _2013*

em mil toneladas

Fonte: SNIC Elaboração e (*) projeção:Bradesco Vendas nacionais de cimento - 1991 - 2011

(35)

BRAZIL: FORMAL EDUCATION IN YEARS OF

THE POPULATION AGED OVER 25

6,3

6,4

6,5

6,7

6,9

7,1

7,2

7,4

6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 _2010*

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 35

(36)

THE PROCESS OF SOCIAL

MOBILITY WILL CONTINUE

TO FAVOR THE EXPANSION

OF HOUSEHOLD

CONSUMPTION.

(37)

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION – ANNUAL VARIATION (%)

1996-2013

SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO 37 3.2 3.0 -0.7 0.4 4.0 0.7 1.9 -0.8 3.8 4.5 5.2 6.1 5.7 4.4 6.9 4.1 3.5 5.6 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 (p ) 2 0 1 3 (p )

TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO CONSUMO DAS FAMÍLIAS Fonte: IBGE

(38)

37.9%

20.0%

33.3%

3.8%

5.0%

18.4%

17.9%

53.2%

5.7%

4.8%

11.9%

16.3%

58.9%

7.9%

5.1%

00% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Classe E Classe D Classe C Classe B Classe A

2000 2010 2020*

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE

SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

CLASSE A:

R$ 7.006 OU MAIS

CLASSE B:

DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006

CLASSE C:

DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635

CLASSE D:

DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159

CLASSE E:

ATÉ R$ 701

38

(39)

% A+B+C CLASSES IN TOTAL POPULATION IN

2011

SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO 39 34% 36% 40% 41% 42% 43% 43% 45% 45% 47% 52% 53% 54% 58% 59% 62% 63% 64% 67% 67% 67% 69% 70% 72% 74% 77% 79% 80% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Alagoas Maranhão Pernambuco Ceará Piauí Bahia Rio Grande do Norte Sergipe Paraíba Pará Tocantins Acre Amazonas Amapá Rondônia Brasil Roraima Minas Gerais Rio de Janeiro Espírito Santo Goiás Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Rio Grande do Sul Paraná Distrito Federal São Paulo Santa Catarina

(40)

40

INDEBTEDNESS OR

DISPOSABLE INCOME

REDUCTION DUE TO

NEW HOUSEHOLD

CONSUMPTION MIX?

40

(41)

SERVICES ARE TAKING IMPORTANT

SHARE IN THE HOUSEHOLD

CONSUMPTION BASKET.

IT SEEMS TO BE A STRUCTURAL

CHANGE IN THE CONSUMPTION

BASKET, AS LOW-INCOME CLASSES

INCLUDE NEW SERVICES IN THEIR

USUAL EXPENDITURE.

41

(42)

42

REAL AVERAGE INCOME (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED,

CONSTANT PRICES) MONTHLY R$

42

1,265

1,318

1,357

1,461

1,522

1,544

1,623

1,603

1,628

1,713

1,750

1,150 1,250 1,350 1,450 1,550 1,650 1,750 a g o /0 8 n o v /0 8 fe v /0 9 m a i/ 0 9 a g o /0 9 n o v /0 9 fe v /1 0 m a i/ 1 0 a g o /1 0 n o v /1 0 fe v /1 1 m a i/ 1 1 a g o /1 1 n o v /1 1 fe v /1 2 m a i/ 1 2 a g o /1 2

RENDIMENTO MÉDIO NOMINAL - R$ (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS) Fonte: IBGE

(43)

SOURCE: IBGE- PNAD

SHARE OF HOMES WITH ACCESS TO SELECTED

DURABLE GOODS (2011)

43

98.7

97.2

96.3

51.6

16.3

49.8

43.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

STOVEN TV REFRIGERATOR WASHING MASHINE

FRIDGE MOBILE COMPUTER

(44)

NUMBER OF MINIMUM WAGES NEEDED TO BUY A NEW

CAR*

(*) NOVO GOL VW 1.0

SOURCE: MTE. DIEESE/PROCON, BRADESCO

154,7

146,0

125,5

113,4

95,5

102,1

91,4

79,1

74,1

66,4

57,2

51,6

50,1

44,1

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012*

Quantidade de salário mínimo necessário para comprar um carro zero - 2000 - 2010Fonte: MTE e IBGE Elaboração: Número de salários mínimos Bradesco

(*) Gol City (Trend) 1.0 Mi Total Flex 8V 2p NUMBER OF MONTHLY MINIMUM WAGES

(45)

SOURCE: SUSEP, FENAPREVI A AUTOSEG 8.938.814.689 10.526.970.130 12.133.376.218 13.053.247.88613.631.953.386 15.356.955.684 17.334.060.719 19.982.740.528 21.332.617.577 4.000.000.000 9.000.000.000 14.000.000.000 19.000.000.000 24.000.000.000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Seguuro de Automóvel (R$)

CAR INSURANCE (R$)

2003-2011

45

(46)

NUMBER OF MOBILE ACCESS

2003 – 2011

G:\Area Economica\Analises_Projecoes\Setorial\Agricultura\01 – Grãos\14 - Trigo -

players mundiais\Gráfprodução

SOURCE: ANATEL, BRADESCO

46.373

65.606

86.210

99.919

120.980

150.641

173.959

202.944

242.232

0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

BASE 46

(47)

SOURCE: SUSEP, FENAPREVI A AUTOSEG 1.311.532.050 1.627.251.885 2.138.338.761 2.748.559.136 3.585.051.8973.815.711.791 4.321.111.560 5.303.960.482 7.622.563.230 0 2.000.000.000 4.000.000.000 6.000.000.000 8.000.000.000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Seguro de Vida Individual

LIFE INSURANCE (R$)

2003-2011

(48)

89,160

101,771

106,933

114,529

113,182

128,136

152,177

169,868

189,445

80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 m a i/ 0 5 a g o /0 5 n o v /0 5 fe v /0 6 m a i/ 0 6 a g o /0 6 n o v /0 6 fe v /0 7 m a i/ 0 7 a g o /0 7 n o v /0 7 fe v /0 8 m a i/ 0 8 a g o /0 8 n o v /0 8 fe v /0 9 m a i/ 0 9 a g o /0 9 n o v /0 9 fe v /1 0 m a i/ 1 0 a g o /1 0 n o v /1 0 fe v /1 1 m a i/ 1 1 a g o /1 1 n o v /1 1 fe v /1 2 m a i/ 1 2 a g o /1 2 Movimentos - total

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS IN THE BRAZILIAN

AIRPORTS (DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS)

ON THE LAST 12 MONTHS

THOUSAND OF PASSENGERS

SOURCE: INFRAERO, BRADESCO 48

(49)

WHAT DO WE EXPECT

FOR CREDIT MARKET

AND DELINQUENCY

RATIO?

(50)

CREDIT/GDP - BRAZIL

50

24,6%

25,7%

28,3%

30,9%

35,2%

40,5%

44,4%

46,4%

49,0%

52,9%

55,3%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

40,0%

45,0%

50,0%

55,0%

60,0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2013*

Relação crédito/PIB (valores correntes)

Fonte: Bacen e (*) projeções: Bradesco

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: DEPEC- BRADESCO

(51)

NOMINAL TOTAL CREDIT GROWTH – TOTAL

BRAZILIAN BANKING SYSTEM

2004-2013

51 19,2% 21,7% 20,7% 27,8% 31,1% 15,2% 20,6% 18,8% 15,7% 14,8% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*

CRESCIMENTO NOMINAL EM 12 MESES DO ESTOQUE TOTAL DE CRÉDITO 2004 - 2017

Fonte: Bacen e (*)

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: DEPEC-BRADESCO

(52)

WE BELIEVE THAT

INDIVIDUALS

DELINQUENCY RATIO

HIKE CYCLE IS ABOUT

TO END.

(53)

INDIVIDUALS DELINQUENCY RATIO ABOVE 90 DAYS

TOTAL BRAZILIAN BANKING SYSTEM

2007 - 2013

7.0

7.2

7.4 7.3

8.5

8.1 6.8 5.7

6.1

7.1 7.6 7.4 7.8 7.9

7.3

6.9 7.0

6.5

5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 fe v /0 7 a b r/ 0 7 ju n /0 7 a g o /0 7 o u t/ 0 7 d e z /0 7 fe v /0 8 a b r/ 0 8 ju n /0 8 a g o /0 8 o u t/ 0 8 d e z /0 8 fe v /0 9 a b r/ 0 9 ju n /0 9 a g o /0 9 o u t/ 0 9 d e z /0 9 fe v /1 0 a b r/ 1 0 ju n /1 0 a g o /1 0 o u t/ 1 0 d e z /1 0 fe v /1 1 a b r/ 1 1 ju n /1 1 a g o /1 1 o u t/ 1 1 d e z /1 1 fe v /1 2 a b r/ 1 2 ju n /1 2 a g o /1 2 o u t/ 1 2 d e z /1 2 fe v /1 3 a b r/ 1 3 ju n /1 3 a g o /1 3 o u t/ 1 3 d e z /1 3

INADIMPLÊNCIA ACIMA DE 90 DIAS DE PESSOA FÍSICA

(54)

DELIQUENCY FROM

COMPANIES IS EXPECTED

TO FALL WITH DECREASE

IN CAPITAL COSTS AND

VERY QUICK

ADJUSTMENTS.

(55)

2.8

2.0

1.6

2.9

4.0

3.5

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.8

3.4

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 fe v /0 7 a b r/ 0 7 ju n /0 7 a g o /0 7 o u t/ 0 7 d e z /0 7 fe v /0 8 a b r/ 0 8 ju n /0 8 a g o /0 8 o u t/ 0 8 d e z /0 8 fe v /0 9 a b r/ 0 9 ju n /0 9 a g o /0 9 o u t/ 0 9 d e z /0 9 fe v /1 0 a b r/ 1 0 ju n /1 0 a g o /1 0 o u t/ 1 0 d e z /1 0 fe v /1 1 a b r/ 1 1 ju n /1 1 a g o /1 1 o u t/ 1 1 d e z /1 1 fe v /1 2 a b r/ 1 2 ju n /1 2 a g o /1 2 o u t/ 1 2 d e z /1 2 fe v /1 3 a b r/ 1 3 ju n /1 3 a g o /1 3 o u t/ 1 3 d e z /1 3

SINADIMPLÊNCIA ACIMA DE 90 DIAS DE PESSOA JURÍDICA

COMPANIES DELINQUENCY RATIO ABOVE 90 DAYS

TOTAL BRAZILIAN BANKING SYSTEM

2007 - 2013

(56)

OUR VIEWS ON

INTEREST RATE

AND INFLATION

(57)

Clique para editar o estilo do

título mestre

CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2002-2013*

SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 57 12.53% 9.30% 7.60% 5.69% 3.14% 4.46% 5.90% 4.31% 5,90% 6.50% 5.40% _5.16% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2013*

(58)

título mestre

12 MONTHS INFLATION RATE FOR SERVICES AND

GOOD (DURABLE AND NON-DURABLE) – 2003-2012*

58 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

10.84%

7.13%

9.96%

2.46%

1.59%

4.22%

1.87%

4.01%

3.01%

3.97%

2.99%

-0.37%

1.26%

6.84%

6.04%

5.26%

7.49%

6.39%

8.55%

9.18%

9.12%

7.97%

8.49%

-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% ju n /0 3 s e t/ 0 3 d e z /0 3 m a r/ 0 4 ju n /0 4 s e t/ 0 4 d e z /0 4 m a r/ 0 5 ju n /0 5 s e t/ 0 5 d e z /0 5 m a r/ 0 6 ju n /0 6 s e t/ 0 6 d e z /0 6 m a r/ 0 7 ju n /0 7 s e t/ 0 7 d e z /0 7 m a r/ 0 8 ju n /0 8 s e t/ 0 8 d e z /0 8 m a r/ 0 9 ju n /0 9 s e t/ 0 9 d e z /0 9 m a r/ 1 0 ju n /1 0 s e t/ 1 0 d e z /1 0 m a r/ 1 1 ju n /1 1 s e t/ 1 1 d e z /1 1 m a r/ 1 2 ju n /1 2 s e t/ 1 2 d e z /1 2

Bens

Serviços

GOODS SERVICES

(59)

título mestre

NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC)

2008-2013

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO 59 11.25% 11.75% 13.00% 13.75% 12.75% 11.25% 10.25% 8.75% 8.75% 9.50% 10.25% 10.75% 11.25% 12.00% 12.50% 11.50% 10.50% 9.75%

9.00%

8.50%

8.00%

7.50% 7.50%7.75% 8.50% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% ja n -0 8 fe v -0 8 m a r-0 8 a b r-0 8 m a i-0 8 ju n -0 8 ju l-0 8 a g o -0 8 s e t-0 8 o u t-0 8 n o v -0 8 d e z -0 8 ja n -0 9 fe v -0 9 m a r-0 9 a b r-0 9 m a i-0 9 ju n -0 9 ju l-0 9 a g o -0 9 s e t-0 9 o u t-0 9 n o v -0 9 d e z -0 9 ja n -1 0 fe v -1 0 m a r-1 0 a b r-1 0 m a i-1 0 ju n -1 0 ju l-1 0 a g o -1 0 s e t-1 0 o u t-1 0 n o v -1 0 d e z -1 0 ja n -1 1 fe v -1 1 m a r-1 1 a b r-1 1 m a i-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a g o -1 1 s e t-1 1 o u t-1 1 n o v -1 1 d e z -1 1 ja n -1 2 fe v -1 2 m a r-1 2 a b r-1 2 m a i-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a g o -1 2 s e t-1 2 o u t-1 2 n o v -1 2 d e z -1 2 ja n -1 3 fe v -1 3 m a r-1 3 a b r-1 3 m a i-1 3 ju n -1 3 ju l-1 3 a g o -1 3 s e t-1 3 o u t-1 3 n o v -1 3 d e z -1 3

Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic

(60)

WE BELIEVE THAT THIS

NEW INTEREST RATE

LEVEL IS SUSTAINABLE.

(61)

SOURCE: BRADESCO

REAL INTEREST RATE (SWAP PRE-DI 360 DEFLATED BY

IPCA 12 MONTHS FORECAST) 2010 - 2012

61

5.56%

6.01%

5.81%

6.75%

6.74%

5.63%

6.50%

6.97%

6.56%

7.11%

6.23%

4.83%

3.90%

4.58%

3.87%

3.16%

3.48%

2.11%

2.50%

1.71%

1.81%

1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4% 0 2 /0 1 /1 0 0 2 /0 2 /1 0 0 2 /0 3 /1 0 0 2 /0 4 /1 0 0 2 /0 5 /1 0 0 2 /0 6 /1 0 0 2 /0 7 /1 0 0 2 /0 8 /1 0 0 2 /0 9 /1 0 0 2 /1 0 /1 0 0 2 /1 1 /1 0 0 2 /1 2 /1 0 0 2 /0 1 /1 1 0 2 /0 2 /1 1 0 2 /0 3 /1 1 0 2 /0 4 /1 1 0 2 /0 5 /1 1 0 2 /0 6 /1 1 0 2 /0 7 /1 1 0 2 /0 8 /1 1 0 2 /0 9 /1 1 0 2 /1 0 /1 1 0 2 /1 1 /1 1 0 2 /1 2 /1 1 0 2 /0 1 /1 2 0 2 /0 2 /1 2 0 2 /0 3 /1 2 0 2 /0 4 /1 2 0 2 /0 5 /1 2 0 2 /0 6 /1 2 0 2 /0 7 /1 2 0 2 /0 8 /1 2 0 2 /0 9 /1 2 0 2 /1 0 /1 2

TAXA REAL DE JUROS NO BRASIL (SWAP 360 DIAS CONTRA SELIC 12 MESES À FRENTE) FONTE: Bloomberg

(62)

62

WHICH ARE THE BIGGEST RISKS

IN THE RADAR?

EUROPE, CHINA, FRUSTRATION

WITH PUBLIC INVESTMENTS AND

LOW INVOLVEMENT OF THE

PRIVATE SECTOR IN THE NEW

INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS.

(63)

(64)

03

E

D

C

B

A

(65)

Source Financial Statements.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

3,160

3,359

3,454

3,628

4,634

1H12

4,650

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011

59,721

1H12

48,691

38,510

32,081

24,161

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

11,539

16,061

20,200

26,104

34,839

1H12

40,476

04

65,370

(66)

4.2

Mobility and Other Service Channels

Source: Financial Statements (1) Values in millions - (2) Accumulated over 12 months - (3) Includes Webta – (4) PA (Service Point): consolidation of the PAB (Banking Service Point), PAA (Advanced Service Point) and Exchange points, according to Resolution CMN nº 4,072, of April 26th 2012; and PAE (Electric Service Points located in companies) – (5) Includes Banco 24 horas

05

29,913

34,524

37,957

43,072

46,971

2007

2008 2009

2010 2011 1H12

47,484

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1,296 1,549

1,846

2,399

2,983

1H12

(3)

3,375

2,776

3,738

4,112

4,490 4,439

2007

2008 2009 2010 2011 1H12

4,719

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3.5

5.5

32.5

99.1

192.5

1H12

(67)

Distribution Network in Brazil

*

27.8%

25.5%

21.3%

19.0%

21.4%

66.7 Million Clients

Total service points: 65,370

(1)

Market Share (Branches) %

North

Northeast

06

Midwest

South

Southeast

1,009 New Branches in 2011

(1) _{Includes Branches (in the country and overseas), PABs, PAAs, PAEs}

Bradesco Expresso, ATMs and Bradesco Promotora. * 2Q12 Data

(68)

Annual revenue up to

R$30 million.

Exclusive

Individuals

Bradesco Expresso and PAA

Monthly income from

R$3,000 to R$6,999.99 or

Investments starting

at R$30,000.

Monthly income

up to R$2,999.99.

Small Business

Client Segmentation

07

Annual revenue over

R$250 million.

Annual revenue from

R$30 million

to R$250 million.

Minimum investment of R$3 million.

Monthly income starting at

R$7,000 or Investment

starting at R$80,000.

(69)

08

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

IT/Telecommunication

Infrastructure

2,099

478

1,621

2,670

667

2,003

3,457

630

2,827

3,920

716

3,204

4,328

1,087

3,241

Cidade de Deus - IT Building

1,713

273

1,986

1H12

Source: Financial Statements.

Investments in Infrastructure, IT and

Telecommunications

Investment (2007 to 1H12):

R$ 18.5 billion

(70)

I

Strategic Positioning in Sustainability

Eco-Efficiency

Master Plan

Social and Environmental

Risks Management

GRI Sustainability

Report

Greenhouse Gas

Inventory

Emission

Financial

Education

Program

Floating Bradesco Branch

09

Responsible

Credit

Financial

(71)

•

Low Mortgage/GDP ratio

•

Housing Deficit of over 7.5

million

•

Long-term relationship with

clients

Mortgages

•

Formalization of the economy

•

Broader access to banking

services

•

Increased salary

•

Continued social mobility

•

Synergy with other areas of the

Bank

Retail

•

Increased investments in

Brazil

•

Access to Bradesco’s

relationship network

Investment Banking

•

Further segmentation

•

Consolidation of diverse

sectors of the economy

Bradesco Empresas

•

Substitution of payment

methods

•

Social ascension

•

Broader access to banking

services

Credit Cards

•

High inhabitant/ automobile

ratio

•

Long-term relationship with

clients

•

Opportunity for cross-selling

Vehicle Financing

•

Target the 7MM pensioners

receiving pensions through

Bradesco

•

Target new INSS beneficiaries

(190,000 per month)

•

Leverage origination of private

and public agreements

Payroll - Deductible Loans

10

•

Monitor demand and business

opportunities

•

Support /explore growing

investments by foreign

companies in Brazil

Corporate

(72)

(1)_{Does not include Savings Bonds.}(2)_{IMF Estimates.}

Source: Swiss RE

Insurance Business Opportunities

(1)

USA

CHINA

JAPAN

GERMANY

FRANCE

BRAZIL

UK

ITALY

GDP

(2)

PREMIUMS

%

PREMIUMS/GDP

1

st

2

nd

3

rd

4

th

5

th

6

th

15

th

7

th

8

th

8.0%

6

th

3.8%

10.1%

7.2%

10.5%

3.1%

12.4%

8.1%

11

1.48%

of Global

Market

Insured Homes:

10%

Health Plans Cover

24%

of the population

Insured Vehicles:

30%

8% of the

population has

dental insurance

1

st

2

nd

5

th

4

th

3

rd

7

th

(73)

(74)

(75)

(76)

Adjusted Net Income and EPS

(1)

15

+2.7%

+4.7%

Earnings per share (R$) – in the last 12 months

(1) For EPS comparison purposes, shares were adjusted in line with stock bonuses and splits. .

R$ Million

1Q11

2,738

2,825

2,864

2,771

2,845

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q12

5,712

1H11

1H12

2,867

2Q

2.72

2.82

2.91

2.93

2.96

2.97

2.82

5,563

(77)

R$ 5,563 million

+2.7%

R$ 5,712 million

Banking 72

Net Income Breakdown

1H11

%

16

Funding

8

Securities

8

Loans

30

Fees

26

Insurance

28

Banking 69

1H12

Securities

11

Loans

26

Fees

25

Insurance

31

Funding

7

(78)

17

R$ Million

NII – Interest / Trading Gains

Interest-Earning Portion

Non-Interest-Earning Portion

7,904

8,553

9,669

9,985

398

465

513

561

273

473

516

3Q10

4Q

1Q11

2Q

3Q

4Q

304

8,849

9,167

10,222

10,518

18,016

20,740

15.1 %

8,302

9,018

9,362

10,230

10,258

10,695 11,034

9,471

2.9

%

1Q12

2Q

(79)

Core NIM & NII

18

R$ Million

7,904

8,553

4Q

1Q11

8,849

2Q

9,167

3Q

9,669

4Q

9,985

1Q12

10,222

2Q

10,518

10.5%

10.2%

11.2%

10.3%

8.9%

11.9%

12.1%

11.3%

10.4%

10.0%

9.0%

7.6%

12.6%

12.3%

12.0%

11.3%

7.6%

7.8%

7.6%

7.5%

NII – Interest-Earnings Portion

NIM=(NII = Interest-Earnings Portion/Total Average Assets – Repos – Permanent Assets) Annualized Average Selic (annualized)

Pre BM&F (1 year)

3Q10

(80)

Credit NII

19

R$ Million

(1) Including loan discounts granted, credit recovery, earnings from properties sold, among others.

Net Credit Margin

PLL (1)

Gross Credit Margin

PLL/Gross Credit Margin %

35.3

37.4

38.2

37.2

40.1

37.2

43.1

46.3

3,774

3,848

3,820

4,111

4,149

4,501

4,087

2,059

2,295

2,360

2,437

2,779

2,661

3,094

3,407

3,955

3Q10

4Q

1Q11

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q12

2Q

5,833

6,143

6,180

6,548

6,928

7,162

7,181

7,362

2.5%

(81)

20

Fee Income

R$ 7,261 million

+15.7%

R$ 8,399 million

1H11

%

1H12

%

Cards

Checking

Accounts

Credit Operations

Asset

Management

Collection

Tax Payments

Consortium

Custody / Brokerage

Technical Analysis

Underwriting

Others

Cards

Checking Accounts

Credit Operations

Asset

Management

Collection

Tax Payments

Consortium

Custody / Brokerage

Technical Analysis

Underwriting

Others

(82)

Operating Expenses

(1) Accumulated over 12 months.

1Q12

1H11

Structural

2,351

4,097

Non - Structural

527

944

15.9

20.7

Personnel

Administrative

Total

Op. Expenses

(1)

/ Total Assets

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

3.6

16.8

21

R$ Million

Variation %

1H12

4,786

1,139

5,925

6,842

2Q12

2,436

611

3,047

3,441

6,488

5,041

5.9

17.5

6,319

1.2

8.3

2,878

3,401

11,360

3.3

12.4

12,767

6,279

(0.1)p.p

(0.2)p.p

3.1%

3.2%

3.3%

(83)

R$ Million

Variation %

Unrealized Gains

Securities – Fixed Income

Securities - Equities

Loan Operations

Investments

(2)

Others

Total

Mar 12

3,877

(845)

(574)

7,313

(394)

9,377

Jun 11

44.4

53.8

12.3

14.5

33.6

Q-o-Q

154.7

105.1

-

73.8

114.2

129.8

Y-o-Y

22

-

9,873

(1,733)

1,537

12,711

(844)

21,544

Jun 12

6,838

(1,127)

(160)

11,316

(737)

16,130

(1)

Note: Excluding the unrecorded goodwill from real estate for own use, in the amount of R$ 3,030 million;

(1) Includes advances on exchange contracts, leasing operations and other receivables with credit characteristics; and

(84)

(85)

(1) Includes PLL adjusted by discounts granted, by credit recovery, by income from the sale of foreclosed assets, among others.

Efficiency Ratio

24

12 – Month Efficiency Ratio

12 – Month Efficiency Ratio Adjusted to Risk (1)

%

3Q10

4Q

1Q11

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q12

2Q

43.0

44.0

42.0

42.9

45.1

40.8

53.3

52.4

52.1

52.2

52.4

53.0

52.6

53.1

42.5

42.7

43.0

42.7

42.4

(86)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1H12

Gains from Organic Growth

Anticipation of Organic Growth through the opening

of 1,009 branches in 2011

Distribution of products that were not previously

sold by Banco Postal

Break-Even and Payback

Source: Financial Statements

3,160

3,359

3,454

3,628

4,634

27.7%

4,650

# Branches

25

(87)

Customer

View

Capacity to properly

respond to the business

45 %

assertiveness of offers via CRM

(Sales Force Automation)

IT – New Architecture: 2005 - 2013

Time to

Market

Agility in developing

products and services

50%

to

70%

developing new products

faster in designing and

Operational

Efficiency

Business process and

back office activities

25%

reduction of operational

activities

Savings

Development and

maintenance cost

reduction

10%

reduction in development costs with

the reuse of components

(88)

Executive Efficiency Committee

COMPONENTS

13 Vice-Presidents and Executive Officers

07 Heads of Department

Specially-invited officers, depending on the subject matter

Dedicated working group

FREQUENCY

Meeting every two weeks and extraordinary meetings

whenever necessary

FOCUS

To encourage initiatives to improve revenue, expenses and

investments, thus aiming to streamline processes and

disseminate best practices, with a focus on efficiency, using

indicators to measure the results, in order to maximize the

returns of the business units.

(89)

(90)

Total Assets

29

R$ Million

Shareholders

´

Equity

Total Assets and Shareholders’ Equity

(1) Accumulated Adjusted Net Income for the period; and

(2) Excludes mark-to-market effects of available-for-sale securities registered under Shareholders’ Equity.

Total Assets

ROAA

(1)

Shareholders’ Equity

ROAE

(1) (2)

1.7%

1.5%

1.4%

Jun11

Mar12

Jun12

23.2%

21.4%

20.6%

Jun11

Mar12

Jun12

52,843

58,060

63,920

+20.5%

+21.0%

(91)

(1)Includes sureties and guarantees, letters of credit, anticipation of credit card receivables, credit assignment with recourse (FIDC - Receivables Securitization Fund and CRI - Real Estate Receivables Certificate), and Rural credit.

(2) Includes debentures and promissory notes operations.

Expanded Loan Portfolio

LARGE CORPORATES - TOTAL

SMEs - Total

INDIVIDUALS

124,057

92,830

102,915

Jun11

7.0

2.0

2.4

Q-o-Q

15.9

17.3

9.1

Y-o-Y

Expanded Loan Portfolio – Total

319,802

4.0

14.1

30

R$ Million

Variation %

134,451

106,730

109,651

Mar12

350,831

143,830

108,898

112,235

Jun12

364,963

Loan Portfolio

1

Other Loan Risk – Commercial Portfolio

2

117.650

110.985

103.404

6,0

13,8

26.180

23.466

20.653

11,6

26,8

Loan Portfolio

1

Other Loan Risk – Commercial Portfolio

2

107,035

104,792

92,010

2.1

16.3

(92)

(1)

Delinquency Ratio > 90 days

31

%

Individuals

SMEs

Large Corporates

Total

5.1

4.8

4.4

3.8

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7