Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets

Stock Market Indicators:

Bull and Bear Markets

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 2, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni

Joe Abbott

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

Bull Markets

1-3

Bear Markets

4-6

Figure 1. 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 T P T P T P

S&P 500 BULL MARKETS (ratio scale) +46%

19 months 28 months+58% 41 months+173% 5 months+47%

yardeni.com 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 T P T +169% 20 months 23 months+132% yardeni.com 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 P T P T +69%

15 months 30 months+75% 12 months+43%

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.

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Bull Markets

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 P T P T P

S&P 500 BULL MARKETS (ratio scale) +119% 34 months 19 months+56% yardeni.com 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 50 75 100 125 150 50 75 100 125 150 P T P T +39%

14 months 44 months+80% 11 months+33% 8 months+24%

yardeni.com 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 T P T P T +51% 11 months +33%

14 months 9 months+54% 12 months+31% 6 months+23% 15 months+28%

Figure 3. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 90 130 170 210 250 290 330 370 410 450 90 130 170 210 250 290 330 370 410 450 P T P T P

S&P 500 BULL MARKETS (ratio scale) +43% 8 months 60 months+229% +65% 31 months yardeni.com 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 280 400 520 640 760 880 1000 1120 1240 1360 1480 1600 280 400 520 640 760 880 1000 1120 1240 1360 1480 1600 P T +166% 43 months yardeni.com 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 P T _+102% P T 84 months 47 months+124% 9/2

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.

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Bull Markets

1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 5 15 25 35 45 55 5 15 25 35 45 55 T P T P T P

S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale) -14.8% -9.4% -44.3% yardeni.com 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 T P T -83.0% -31.8% -54.5% -31.9% yardeni.com 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 7 12 17 22 27 7 12 17 22 27 P T P T -31.9% -34.5% -13.1% -26.6% -20.6% yardeni.com

Figure 5. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 P T P T P

S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale) -14.8% -20.7% yardeni.com 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 50 75 100 125 150 50 75 100 125 150 P T P T -28.0% -22.2% -36.1% yardeni.com 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 P T P T P T -36.1% -48.2% -19.4% -17.1%

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.

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Bear Markets

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 90 150 210 270 330 390 450 510 570 90 150 210 270 330 390 450 510 570 P T P T P

S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale) -17.1% -27.1% -33.5% -19.9% yardeni.com 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 280 400 520 640 760 880 1000 1120 1240 1360 1480 1600 1720 280 400 520 640 760 880 1000 1120 1240 1360 1480 1600 1720 P T -19.9% -19.2% -49.1% yardeni.com 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 P T P T -49.1% -56.8% -16.0% 9/2 yardeni.com

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