H
appy New Year to you! I begin this issue with a look at the bet the bookies hate - the each way double.How was 2014 for the ‘Home-Grown’ systems? Read on and you’ll be pleasantly surprised. I’ve got a lot more Home-Grown betting systems for you in 2015. It’s great to have the Patriarch back for 2015, and as usual he does not disappoint. This month he shares with you a couple of greyhound betting ideas, as well as a great way to spot a potential stable gamble.
The Statman has crunched the numbers (yet again), and found that there have been some excellent profits to be had by following trainers when they run their horses in specific races.
With all of the hoo-ha surrounding ‘banker bets’ at the moment, I thought I would tackle them myself. Read about how you can double your money in three months betting on the football. There’s a discussion on how you can skyrocket your returns ten-fold too. And the great news is that I provide the selections to you for free at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
We end with the Systems and Tipsters Update: a review really on how the featured tipsters performed during 2014 and an exposé on a couple of really iffy new releases.
As I move some of my tipster updates to www.
whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, this will free up the space for new tipsters and strategies.
So let’s start with something that really irks the bookies...
betting strtegy:
Why bookies Hate the
each Way Double bet
and How you Can Profit
H
ere’s a clue that you’re on the right path as far as finding out what really wins money in our battles against the bookmakers. If the bookies don’t like these bets, you can be sure it’s because they’re beneficial to punters. So...Use the bet the bookies hate! The bookies hate this one particular bet for a good reason: this bet puts the odds in your favour. And what is this bet?
it’s the each-way double
Each-way betting, to remind you, is a form of betting predominantly used in horse racing, providing you with the ability to back a horse to win and also back the same horse to place (in the first three in an eight-runner or more race, and in the first two in a seven-runner or fewer race).
You can enhance your returns markedly by putting selected each-way bets into a double (the winnings from the first bet are transferred to the second bet).
REVIEWs:
Home-grown systems Update ... 3
ThE PaTRIaRch PREsEnTs:
Place This Bet When a Trainer has 2 or More horses in The same Race... ... 7
ThE sTaTMan REVEaLs:
The 10 Best Performing Trainers to Look Out For ... 9
BETTInG sTRaTEGY:
Enjoy steady Football Profits With These FREE Banker Bets selections ... 11
REVIEWs:
systems and tipsters Update ... 12
INSIDE THIS ISSUE:
What Really Wins Money
an Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting systems
How to Cash in on banker bets, trainer
tricks & the bookie’s nightmare
Let’s take a look at an each-way double featuring mod-estly priced 2/1 and 3/1 selections...
If we back these 2/1 and 3/1 selections in an each-way double, we only need both horses to place in order for our stakes to be returned.
Let me take you through what happens after a 2/1 and 3/1 each-way double where both horses do not win, but finish third in an eight-runner race.
» The 2/1 horse finishes third at 1/ 2 odds.
» The 3/1 horse finishes third at 3/4 odds.
A £20 each-way double – total £80 – would have lost the £20 win part of both bets (£20 each way is a total stake of £40 because we back the horse with £20 to win and £20 to place).
With the second horse at 3/1 – £30 is staked at place odds of 3/4 producing winnings of £22.50. The win-nings of £22.50 are added to the £30 stake, resulting in a return of £52.50 – a £12.50 profit on the bet without any horse winning.
If both horses won then we’d have had a £40 win from the 2/1 horse carried over to the 3/1 horse, whose stake is £40 + £20 = £60. If the horse wins at 3/1 the returns are £180. This produces a profit of £220 plus a profit of £12.50 from the place-only bets.
You can try these out for yourself by heading on over to www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/double.html. Let me show you the calculations from the 2/1 and 3/1 horses placing only:
As you can see, the total profit is £12.50 and these horses have not even won!
Let’s look at the rather exciting returns from both of
these horses winning:
A total profit of £252.50 is an excellent return to £20 each-way stakes.
Try out the different permutations yourself – of one horse winning, one placing, and at shorter or, indeed, bigger odds. The potential of a short-priced each-way double, I think, appeals greatly.
The best way to get the probabilities in your favour is to focus on eight-runner races only. Eight runners offer the smallest horse racing field which will pay out for three places. Any selection will only have to beat five horses to place at least and guarantee a return.
Below is the type of race I would look at for my each-way doubles:
Betting Forecast: 8/11 A Boy Named Suzi, 7/2 Royale Django, 13/2 So Oscar, 10/1 Baku Bay, 12/1 Rock of Ages, 14/1 Haatefina, 33/1 Black Lily, 100/1 Walk Of Gleams.
Why is the above race suitable for each-way doubles? Well, I like to see an odds-on favourite – that is a favourite whose odds are less than evens. Odds-on favourites usually naturally ‘boost’ the odds of the remaining horses.
What else do you notice about this particular race layout? How about the fact that there are two potential outsiders? Did you notice Black Lily at 33/1 and Walk of Gleams at 100/1? I tend to assume that these two will not place. Why is this good news? It reduces the com-petitive field to six runners – three of whom will place. That provides us with a 50/50 chance of success! Admittedly this is not new ground for battle-hardened
What Really Wins Money readers: I suppose ‘repetition
It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.
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is the mother of skill’.
Use my usual selections... Use your what now? Let me clarify. As part of your membership you have free access to www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. There you’ll see I provide daily each-way selections. As an aside, these each-way selections have produced winners at decimal odds of 4.9, 3.87, 3.28, 4.63, 8, 17.5, 21, 6.86, 3.6, 7.58, 3.13, 3.65, 8.11, 4.2, and 5.4 – and that’s not to mention some unlucky selections: head-second at odds of 32, second at 46, neck-second at 20.09, second at 30.
Impressive stuff for 2015! My each-way selections are divided into two distinctive types. These I call ‘usual’ and ‘speculative’ selections. The ‘usual’ selections are more obvious each-way selections, at relatively short odds, which I want to place at the very least. The ‘speculative’ selections are the less obvious each-way selections, at higher odds.
My goal with these selections is to use the ‘probabili-ties’ and indeed, the unpredictability of horse racing to hope for a shock result. As you see in 2015, I’ve had winners at odds of 17.5 and 21 (16.5/1 and 20/1) as well as close-second places at odds of 32, 46, 20.09 and 30. It is with the ‘usual’ selections that I would focus for this each-way double strategy whose focus is with shorter-priced, more obvious horses. This year, 1 Janu-ary was a superb example of how these ‘usual’ selec-tions can perform. We had winners at odds of 4.9, 3.87, and 3.28; 2 January saw usual selections winning at odds of 4.63 and 8, as well as a faller; 6 January saw usual selections come second at place-only odds of 2.15, third at only odds of 3.3, second at place-only odds of 1.87 and first at 4.21; and 10 January saw first at 3.6, second at 4.64, first at 7.58 and first at 3.13, with an unplaced horse at 6.6 odds.
So you see, the potential is there. Do keep an eye on the ‘usual’ selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I will also be looking at specific race types to see if we can find regular placed horses and the odds smattering of winners.
Try the each-way double out for yourself and become the bookmaker’s best friend... not!
reVieWs:
Home-grown
systems Update
I
f this section does anything, I hope it ignites your creative juices and instills in you the idea that creat-ing a bettcreat-ing system/strategy is really rather easy. So, before I give you a run down on how the Home-Grownbetting systems performed in 2014, I’d just like to offer you some pointers on how you can create your own betting systems...
think ‘niche’...
The first element to creating a successful betting system is to have a niche. In my review of 2014 Home-Grown systems to follow, you’ll see a number of niches which I use to make a year-long profit. Here’s a quick over-view of these niches:
» Place-only betting on Betfair. Here we bet on a horse to finish first or second in a seven-runner or fewer race; or first, second or third in an eight-runner or more race. There is a specific betting market for place-only betting, quite separate from the traditional Win Only market.
» Race types. Below you’ll see betting systems specific to race types. For instance, I use betting systems with a specific focus on handicap races only, or perhaps maidens, claimers and sellers. Or maybe my focus might be on National Hunt Flat races. All niches within the race type niche!
» Race venues. There are really three separate venues: Flat race courses; Jumps race courses; and the All-Weather (and we have a new All-Weather venue for 2015 at Chelmsford). We can create a niche by race venue. For example, a lot of my laying strategies focus on the All-Weather venues.
» Are you a backer or a layer (or both!)? I think a profitable portfolio should include backing and laying systems. You’ll see the vast majority of my Home-Grown betting systems in 2014 were laying systems. For me, the probability of picking a horse to lose in a 14-runner race is far easier than select-ing the winner! So we have a backselect-ing niche (Win Only, each-way or Place-Only betting) or a laying niche (laying to a fixed stake or a fixed liability).
Have access to past results...
With websites like www.racingpost.com, you can easily check results by race type, race venue and race country to see if you are on to something.
Marry the correct staking plan with
the correct betting system...
There are betting ‘scholars’ out there who tell us that if a betting system does not make a profit to level stakes, then it should be ditched. I say ‘Bertie Ollocks’ (who was actually a reporter for the Sunday Sport for you lovers of trivia).
Betting systems come in all shapes and sizes, with differing odds and differing strikerates. It would be remiss of you if you were not to take your betting ideas through as many staking plans as you can manage. As
you will see with my Home-Grown betting systems, I can increase profits markedly when I look away from level-stakes betting (whilst still ensuring that stakes risked are controlled), and even by placing restrictions on the odds of the horses.
For instance, one of my strategies has turned a profit in 2013 and 2014 by restricting my bets to horses at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 (decimal odds) only. I found, for instance here, that there was little value in look-ing below 1.1 and that horses priced above 1.5 had a greater chance of losing my stake money.
Before I begin with a review of 2014’s Home-Grown betting systems (the selections of which can easily be found at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk daily for you, as part of your membership to What Really Wins
Money), I’d just like to offer you a glimpse as to the
potentially profitable Home-Grown betting systems I’ll be sharing with you in 2015...
3-5-8 – With this idea, I have been making a note of the third, fifth and eighth races of the day, each day, to see if there is any pattern which emerges as far as favourites’ performances. In the back of my mind is the idea of a ‘betting cycle’ of three bets daily, stopping at a winner (or a loser if there is a laying angle). I have months of results which I need to crunch for you. Irish Chase races – Chase races for me are the tough-est of the two Jumps codes (the other being hurdling). Do favourites perform better or worse in Irish racing as opposed to racing in the UK?
Greyhound races – There are so many greyhound races from early morning to late evening that there simply must be an angle in here, for the backer or the layer. From a layer’s perspective though, the fact that Betfair’s greyhound markets can lack liquidity at times is a little off-putting. I have been looking at patterns and sequences and hope to offer you some interesting greyhound strategies this year.
Football ‘bet-and-go’ strategies – I run a profitable football trading service, which you can check out at www.drt.club. As part of that service, I research hundreds of matches a week. I have two ‘bet-and-go’ strategies in mind for you in 2015, which include Both Teams to Score (BTTS for short) and laying the 0-0 correct score in the Half-time market (you’ll notice I have selected real niche markets).
Banker bets – Did you know that I have been provid-ing free banker bets for the football for you at www. whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for going on three months now? Read the separate article in this edition of What
Really Wins Money and you’ll see how I have taken my
selections through numerous staking plans in order to try and maximise returns beyond simple level-stakes
betting.
Over the coming months, watch out for this regular Home-Grown betting systems series of articles. If my new betting ideas are as profitable as 2014’s school of homegrowns, then we can build up a profitable betting portfo-lio.
Without further ado therefore, let’s look at how the Home-grown betting systems for 2014 got on, as far as the all-important profit/loss is concerned...
Two-horse race placers – This is the second consecu-tive year of very good profits from the simplest of strat-egies. My Home-Grown betting strategies, particularly with regards to horse racing, have one good characteris-tic and that is this: you don’t need to know one end of a horse from another in order to profit (although you will need to know one end of a horse from another if you are feeding it a carrot – just a tip for you!).
Selections are available for you at www.whatreally winsmoney.co.uk under the imaginatively entitled heading ‘Two-horse race placers’.
What you’ll see is something like this:
7 120 Chelmsford Betting Forecast: 5/6 Zamoura, 100/30 Pin Up, 6/1 Duchess Of Marmite.
The ‘7’ at the beginning tells us the number of runners. In this case the Place Only market pays out for two places only. The Betting Forecast comes from www. racingpost.com and the information is freely available. The idea here is to back the live market favourite in the Place-Only market at www.betfair.com, as long as the place-only odds fall between 1.1 and 1.5.
In 2013, this strategy made 61 points profit. In 2014, this strategy made a 40-point profit. The profit graph really took off after April 2014, as you can see below:
This is a popular strategy amongst readers who follow my selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. With two consecutive years of profits, this is a ‘banker’ for my betting portfolio.
Laying the top weight in handicaps at All-Weather meetings – I wonder what the betting criteria here is? Simply follow the heading!
Lay the singular top weight in handicap races at All-Weather-only meetings (perhaps avoiding Chelmsford as it is a new venue in 2015). One caveat: lay any
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selection as long as their odds are below 10 decimals in www.betfair.com’s lay column.
A 104-point profit for 2014 is excellent considering this is such a simple strategy. The profit was made using level stakes laying: i.e. looking to win £10 per bet. The profit graph shows visually how 2014 progressed:
Irish Bumpers – Laying the favourite in NH Flat races in Ireland only was a profitable strategy in 2014. This strategy made 41 points profit, but the profit graph is not as encouraging as the two preceding strategies:
In this case, the beginning of 2014 right through the summer produced some excellent results for the layers. The system then plodded from thereon in.
This is not a strategy I would continue to use in 2015. The profit graph is not consistently on a 45-degree line from left to right. I want to see a betting bank grow rather than stagnate for a large proportion of the year. The worst performing favourites on the All-Weather – This is a strategy where I expected a possibly profit-able lay system to emerge. But I was wrong! It pays to keep an open mind at times.
Selecting qualifying bets is as easy as pie. We focus on Weather race meetings. Below you’ll see two All-Weather meetings: Lingfield (AW) and Wolverhampton (AW). Guess what the ‘AW’ stands for? Your next job is to click on the ‘FAVOURITES’ link and take note of the race types with the smallest percentage of favourites winning. In the case of Lingfield below, which race type has the smallest percentage of winning favourites?
If you answered ‘2yo HANDICAP with 29%’ then go to the top of the class. Your next step is to note the race times for any qualifying races. A ‘2yo [‘year old’] HANDICAP’ is also known as a ‘nursery handicap’. On this particular day, there are no nursery handicaps and therefore no qualifying bets.
When you do find a bet, you become a backer rather than a layer. Yes, I know: you’d have thought that laying favourites in the worse performing races for favourites on the All-Weather would profit well. It doesn’t, as you’ll see below!
Simply backing the favourite in these qualifying races this year would have produced a 63-point profit which is excellent. Whether it has the consistency to profit again in 2015 we’re yet to find out.
Would you like to see a profit graph
like the one below?
It looks excellent, doesn’t it? And what if I told you that I could turn £100 into £1,093 with a maximum stake of £27.50 and a minimum stake of £10? Would that inter-est you? It certainly piqued my interinter-est.
This is what I look for from a betting system: a steady upwards profit and that the maximum stake is very rea-sonable. This staking plan is called ‘Rolling Doubles’ and a discussion on the plan can be found at http:// www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php. It certainly deserves consideration.
This seems to be the perfect marriage of staking plan with selection strategy. I remain confident that this Rolling Doubles staking plan can continue its slow, graceful rise in 2015, keeping money risked to a bare minimum. (Note, with this strategy, I limited selections to favourites priced at decimal odds of 3.5 or lower and ideally using Betfair SP to enhance returns.)
Maidens, claimers and selling stakes races at All-Weather venues – There are actually three or four stak-ing plans which would produce a reasonable profit from this Home-Grown betting system.
In November’s What Really Wins Money, I wrote about a high-risk ‘lay ladder’ staking plan to lay the favou-rites in these races. The idea was to lay any favourite whose odds are over 3.5 decimals using loss-retrieval. This is the example I gave:
wins. You lost £25 because as a layer you want the horse to lose.
Bet 2 – Lay Horse B at odds of 3.5 to win £10 and £25 lost from Bet 1. Horse wins. You lose £87.50.
Bet 3 – Lay Horse C at odds of 3.5 to win £10 and £25 lost from Bet 1 and £87.50 lost from Bet 2. The horse loses. You win.
This is a high-risk, quick-reward staking plan. I do feel that you need a high-risk strategy as part of a balanced betting portfolio.
Let’s look at the profit graph, which exemplifies the quick rewards but also the risk when we hit three losers:
A £100 betting bank quickly turned into £1,116. Then the moment of truth arrived: we hit a sticky patch of four consecutive losing lays. After the three-bet betting cycle ended, the betting bank was reduced to £453. The bank stands at £623, which is the profit figure for 2014. A reasonable return. The money lost when we hit four losers was OPM (other people’s money).
A high-risk strategy like this would suggest you profit-take at regular intervals and make it a priority to retrieve your initial seed money as quickly as possible. With a high-risk strategy like this, when things are rosey (that was the only run of three or more lays losing all year) we will see a swift increase in returns.
For those of you wanting a quieter time of it, laying all favourites in maidens, claimers and sellers to level stakes made 63 points profit last year. Considering the simplicity of making selections, this is an excellent return.
For the more squeamish, laying each selection to lose £10 maximum created a 53-point profit, but the initial betting bank was wiped out at one stage.
It seems that laying favourites in a number of different race types together could increase the strike rate above the standard 33% of favourites winning in one race type. This is something I will experiment with other race types in 2015, and report back of course.
There is one last staking plan which skyrocketed profits for laying these favourites to 197 points for the year. This is the staking plan which achieves this excellent return: http://www.thestakingmachine.com/lay14.php.
As you’ll read, this is another loss-retrieval staking plan, albeit gentler than the lay ladder.
I will be monitoring these staking plans and provide selections for you for free at www.whatreallywins money.co.uk, if you are taken by 2014’s performance. Handicap place lay profits – Here’s a new idea of mine which ensures you know your risk. Our focus is on handicap races: races which are known to be the most competitive. I figured that favourites in these races, and very strong favourites at that, would be more vulnerable than usual.
What if we layed these favourites in the Place-only market – i.e. if we lay a selection in an eight-runner race, we want that selection not to place in the first three. It’s a rather contrarian view of course. You’d have thought that strong favourites are more likely to finish in the first three places, if not winning.
Here’s how I make selections: I go to www.racingpost. com (as per usual!), click on ‘Cards’, and ‘Today’s cards’. Go to a race meeting and click on ‘Show all race cards for this meeting on one page’. I look for strong favourites, characterised in the following manner: 605 Dundalk Betting Forecast: 15/8 Your Pal Tal, 9/2 Corker Hill.
The above is taken from the Betting Forecast for a race at www.racingpost.com. Not any race of course – our focus is solely on handicaps. Your job is to simply lay the first named horse – Your Pal Tal in this case – in the Place-only market to a fixed liability, say £10. The advantages of this strategy are two-fold:
» You can ‘bet and go’ by laying in the Place-Only market using Betfair SP.
» If your selection is unplaced, your profits will gen-erally be greater than the money risked.
From 2 July 2014 to the end of 2014, a £100 starting bank, turned into £918, using just £10 fixed liability staking.
There are likely to be longish losing runs, but I believe that the unpredictability of horse racing, and indeed the competitive nature of handicap races, should ensure a steady stream of unplaced horses at odds-on to ensure a profit.
I received a nice email from a reader recently with regards to the Home-Grown betting systems: ‘Having
followed Clive’s Home-Grown systems through the autumn, I decided to record and bet the selections in December, as the All-Weather season was well under way. I decided to do my own paper-trading to see how the results panned out (something everyone should do for every new system, particularly if laying, as it shows you the sort of liability that you may be exposed to) and
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having seen some excellent results in December, started using real money on Boxing Day, laying the selections to £10 stakes (not liability) apart from the handicap place Lays.
‘Here are my results from Boxing Day to Sunday 11 January:
» Laying top weight in handicaps – £271.43 profit.
» Laying AW runners with a 6 or 12 lbs penalty – £57.61 profit.
» Laying favourites in claimers, sellers and maidens (Clive offers a low-risk system of laying over 3.5 with a lay ladder but I have laid all selections, even short priced ones) – profit £94.50.
» Laying Irish Bumper favourites – loss of £6.32 but this had performed really well before Christmas.
» Handicap place lays (to £10 liability) – profit of £192.98 (note that some selections had drifted out to odds-against prices, as I always laid live at the off. However, I didn’t lay anything above 2.1. You can lay to BSP if desired).
‘Total profit in 17 days: £610.20, or about £35 a day to £10 stakes.
‘I am now going to add in two-horse placers, each-way
selections and banker bets to the portfolio. Regards,
KL.’
KL took action and is profiting from this ‘portfolio’ approach. I hope you do too.
tHe PatriarCH Presents:
Place this bet When a
trainer Has 2 or More
Horses in the same race...
If you can remember, after all the recent festivities, what I was writing about in November, then you’ll recall that it was about the possibility of profiting from backing favourites. I’ll have something further to say about that in a later piece, but first, while searching among my records the other day, I discovered some ideas that I thought were worth a mention, and here they are...The first one covers a period of nine months or so from 10 years ago and gave fairly regular winners at all big prices up to 100-1. And it’s so simple too. Where a trainer has two (or more) horses entered in the race, you back the one at the biggest price.
However, I would suggest that you don’t back the outsider if it is obvious that it is in the race merely as a pacemaker, as sometimes happens with big stables
in big races. But even there I seem to remember the Godolphin horse Summoner winning the Queen Eliza-beth stakes at 33-1 from his well-fancied stable mate, when he was supposed to be in the race just to set the pace.
So, back the stable’s outsider, unless it’s clearly in the race as a pacesetter. Of course you’ll get losers but also a surprising number of good-priced winners.
I was writing this on Saturday 6 December to be in good time for the first issue of the year and I thought I would try out the idea at Sandown. In the first race there, Nicky Henderson had two runners: one the second-favourite and the other at a big price.
What happened? The second-favourite was beaten by the other one at 14-1. A race or two later, our other great trainer Paul Nicholls had two entries in the race: one was a heavily-backed odds-on favourite which was beaten. The race was won by the other at 5-1. I rest my case!
Here’s a quick example. Go to www.racingpost.com, click on ‘Cards – Today’s Cards’ and ‘show all race cards for this meeting on one page’. This presents you with the races at today’s race venues.
Under the ‘Trainer’ column in the race card, note the trainer with two runners. Can you tell me which trainer below qualifies today?
Tim Vaughan runs Tidestream and Time and Again. Back the horse with the biggest price at the off.
Off to the dogs...
There appears to be some interest in greyhounds recently, so when I found these two approaches in my old files I thought I should share them. The first one I would describe as a fun bet – fun because you’ll always get some return, and maybe even a good one. It reminded me of an occasion many years ago now, when
I was at the dogs with my parents.
My father and myself, studying form intensely and getting nowhere, were astonished to see my mother going up to the payout window after every race. She eventually revealed her secret: she backed every dog in the race to win. Stupid, yes; but it only takes a winner at over 5-1 to make a profit. My plan is a little more involved and does have some sense in it.
I believe it is widely accepted that traps 1, 5, and 6 are the favourite traps to follow and that’s where we start. We back these traps in reverse forecasts – that is, traps 1 and 5, 5 and 1, 1 and 6, 6 and 1, 5 and 6, 6 and 5. Six points are staked, whatever your point may be.
Then we back traps 2, 3 and 4 for a Place Only. I’d suggest two points are staked on each of the place bets. You are now guaranteed a return. You must get either a winning forecast, two successful place bets, or one place bet.
The second idea for greyhounds has certainly a lot of sense in it, and although I haven’t tried it out recently, I’d expect it to turn up plenty of winners. It’s a system based on time, which I feel most greyhound systems must be, but it’s time used in rather a special way. We’ll use the Racing Post for all the information required. First requirement is that all six dogs must have raced at least four times in their last five races over the distance of the present race. Let’s take a look at an example from www.racingpost.com. Again, the information is freely available to you.
Follow these steps: go to www.racingpost.com, click on ‘Greyhounds – Cards’. Click on the race meeting name. In this example I click on ‘HALL GREEN’. The races will appear. In order to access the full form, click on the race time and description, as shown below. Click on ‘11.03 – RACE 1 (A8) 480M’.
It is the ‘FORM CARD’ where we will find the infor-mation pertinent to this article. Also, all six dogs must have a ‘Split Time’ in four of their last five races. (The Split Time is shown in the Racing Post cards in a column to the right of the column showing Trap Numbers.) Of course, these Split Times are over the distance of the present race. The furthest column to the
right of the card is headed ‘Calc’ (for calculated time) – the time the dog took in that race taking the state of the going into account.
In the screenshot below, we see that this race is run at a distance of 480m. The form for the dogs show their last five races. The column headed ‘DIS’ shows the distance of those last five races. Looking at Mash Mad Tia, this dog has run over 480m in its last five races. It has a Split Time in four of those five races, as per the criteria. Do you see the column on the far right of the form? It is titled ‘CALC’. This is the column we need to look at for the next step of this greyhound strategy (see below screenshot)...
This is probably a better indicator than the bare time taken. Note all four or five calculated times for each dog in the race and jot down the second-fastest, not the fastest. The reason for this is that the fastest could have been a fluke or lucky run, and the second-best gives a more reliable standard. When you have all six second-fastest times, arrange them in order 1 to 6 with the fastest at number 1.
Follow exactly the same procedure with the Split Times, already referred to, bearing in mind how important these are since they give a good guide to a dog’s starting speed, where the speediest dog can avoid crowding and bumping. Again, use the second-fastest to give a more reliable guide.
Arrange in order 1 to 6 with the fastest first. Now add the two rankings together, so that a dog that was top in both would score 2, the highest possible score. A dog that came last in both rankings would score 12, the worst possible score. Naturally, most scores are going to come in-between. We are looking, however, for the dog with the lowest score, whatever that may be, and
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that will be our win bet. The bigger the gap between it and the next dog, the stronger the bet. I would make a dog with a score of 2 a ‘banker bet’.
P.S. Regarding backing my outsider idea, I returned home today, 9 December, just in time for the 3 o’clock at Southwell. I hurriedly backed the well-supported and heavily-tipped favourite trained by Scott Dixon. It came in second-last. Guess what won? Yes, Dixon had another runner, unnoticed by me, and it won at 28-1. Grr!
Here’s the actual result: Incomparable won at 20/1. Scott Dixon’s other horse, Pearl Noir, the 9/4 favourite, finished 13th!
tHe statMan reVeals:
the 10 best Performing
trainers to look Out For
L
ooking at a particular horse and a particular trainer for someone else the other day (call it my day job), I came across an outstanding strikerate for that one handler with one type of race. It was so successful that it stuck in my head and pretty much forced me down this road – and as I type, even I do not yet know what will come out of my research.To start things off we need to identify in which races trainers are or are not successful, but with so many trainers out there, we need to be a little more selective in our actions or we could be here forever.
My first thought was that although they may have the majority of the winners, the top trainers would be so well supported by the ‘mug punters’ that prices would make it nigh on impossible to make any kind of profit. So, I also looked a little lower down the pecking order. Heading off to the top trainers list, I ignored the top ten for the reasons stated, and started working my way
down the remainder looking for ways to squeeze out a profit. I think what I found was pretty amazing, and can only hope that you all feel the same...
The only negative is that my software covering histori-cal data seems incapable of producing the figures I need, so I have used the Racing Post website and done all the work for you – though this only covered five years of data (personally, I really do not see this as an issue). I have also explained how I got the data, so that in future years you will be easily able to log in and find the same information for next year and beyond all on your own!
Go to www.racingpost.com. Click on the ‘Statistics’ tab. Under ‘Seasonal Statistics’, click on the ‘Trainers’ tab. Ensure the drop-down box is for the race type you are looking for (examples include GB Jumps, GB Flat, Irish Jumps amongst others).
Start with the 11th trainer on the list if you are looking for value options. Concentrate on the top 10 if you are looking for a higher strikerate from your selections. Click on each trainer’s name in order. This brings up a separate page and then click on ‘Statistics’ (found on the same line as ‘LAST 14 DAYS’ and ‘HORSES’ (don’t click on ‘Statistical summary’).
Ensure the first drop-down reads whatever you require (GB All-Weather, GB Jumps [which is what we are using here and now], etc) and that the second drop-down box reads ‘Last 5 Seasons’. Ensure the third drop-down box reads ‘Race Type’.
Click the ‘Filter results’ button. Toggle the right-hand drop-down box as you see fit between hurdles/chases/ bumpers to see where the highest profit lies. Look for any profitable line (in black and with a + symbol) and make note of the trainer and race type.
Click on the ‘Entries’ tab at the top of the page. Look to see if any entries match the race type you have listed. Here I have selected ‘Evan Williams’.
I noticed an extremely promising profit figure for Evan Williams’ horses when run over maiden hurdles. A
+49.45 profit is very eye-catching. My next step would be to click on ‘ENTRIES’ at the top of the page and watch out for maiden hurdles races.
Once you have found a strong performing race type, place your bets accordingly at best prices (personally, I use www.oddschecker.com and always use a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker to get the highest returns). Check each day from your list of chosen trainers and race types.
As I write, these are the statistics I have come up with – top 10 trainers first, the rest afterwards. I leave you to play with these as you see fit but there is certainly money to be made one way or the other!
Current Top 10 Trainers (correct at the time of writing):
Trainer Race Type Runs Wins Strike
Rate Profit/Loss to Starting Price Paul Nicholls Maiden Hurdles 124 29 23.38% +£20.25 Philip Hobbs Selling Hurdles 16 3 18.75% +£1.32 Nicky Henderson Novice Hurdles 569 183 32.16% +£30.86 *David Pipe N/A 0 0 0 0 Alan King Maiden Hurdles 126 32 25.39% +£62.47
Nigel Twiston-Davies Maiden Hurdles 134 22 16.42% +£41.15
Nigel Twiston-Davies Selling Hurdles 35 10 28.57% +£4.48 *Venetia Williams N/A 0 0 0 0 Jonjo O’Neill N/A 0 0 0 0 Evan Williams Selling Hurdles 77 16 20.78% +£1.16 Evan Williams Claiming Hurdles 24 8 33.33% +£3.38 Evan Williams Maiden Hurdles 162 29 17.90% +£49.45 John Ferguson Novice Hurdles 171 53 30.99% +£1.69 John Ferguson Maiden Hurdles 94 27 28.72% +£1.27 John Ferguson Bumpers 7 2 28.57% +£5.25 TOTALS 1539 414 26.90% +£222.73
*As evidence that we cannot just rely on the top 10 trainers, there are NO specific race types at which the David Pipe or Venetia Williams yard are showing a profit over the five years recorded.
Still, not really a bad profit or strike rate, remembering we are only looking at five years’ worth of data rather than the usual 10 years. As you can imagine, common sense allows me to cherry pick from all the other train-ers (well, from the top 100 traintrain-ers by winnings – there would be hundreds otherwise) – any profits less than £10 will be sensibly ignored.
Trainer Race Type Runs Wins Strike
Rate Profit/Loss to Starting Price Dan Skelton Handicap Chases 131 31 23.66% +£12.18 Harry Fry Handicap Chases 35 8 22.86% +£14.58 Harry Fry Novice Chases 31 15 48.38% +£10.14 Charlie Longsdon Bumpers 10 4 40.00% +£10.60 Gordon Elliott Handicap Hurdles 151 38 25.17% +£103.71 Oliver Sherwood Maiden Hurdles 80 16 20.00% +£49.82 Kim Bailey Maiden Hurdles 90 19 21.11% +£10.14 Kim Bailey Bumpers 6 2 33.33% +£15.00
Warren Greatrex Handicap Chases 100 17 17.00% +£15.71 Nick Williams Novice Hurdles 81 18 22.22% +£34.81 Neil Mulholland Handicap Hurdles 367 58 15.80% +£29.43
Dr Richard Newland Selling Hurdles 32 15 46.88% +£37.82
Dr Richard Newland Handicap Chases 212 44 20.75% +£23.95 Gary Moore Selling Hurdles 36 9 25.00% +£15.58 David Bridgwater Handicap Chases 248 48 19.35% +£17.08 David Bridgwater Novice Chases 75 14 18.67% +£18.36 John Quinn Handicap Hurdles 125 23 18.40% +£29.85 Fergal O’Brien Maiden Hurdles 51 5 9.80% +£28.80 Dianne Sayer Handicap Hurdles 450 61 13.56% +£11.54 Chris Gordon Handicap Hurdles 361 41 11.36% +£86.80 Chris Gordon Selling Hurdles 13 2 15.38% +£14.00 Chris Gordon Novice Chases 48 7 14.58% +£58.25 Jeremy Scott Bumpers 8 3 37.50% +£22.50 Neil King Bumpers 7 1 14.28% +£44.00 Seamus Mullins Bumpers 17 3 17.64% +£29.00 David Dennis Handicap Chases 38 8 21.05% +£10.25 David Dennis Novice Chases 14 4 28.57% +£14.50 Henry Daly Handicap Hurdles 198 27 13.64% +£17.00 Ben Case Handicap Chases 70 13 18.57% +£36.42 Malcolm Jefferson Handicap Chases 258 47 18.22% +£115.63 Malcolm Jefferson Novice Chases 70 14 20.00% +£22.95 Philip Kirby Handicap Hurdles 384 48 12.50% +£23.09 Anthony Honeyball Handicap Hurdles 125 33 26.40% +£79.82 Anthony Honeyball Handicap Chases 83 16 19.28% +£23.00 Anthony Honeyball Novice Chases 45 11 24.44% +£10.29 Anthony Honeyball Bumpers 9 4 44.44% +£11.50 Rose Dobbin Bumpers 6 2 33.33% +£21.00 Paul Henderson Handicap Chases 253 39 15.42% +£72.88 Robert
Waley-Cohen Handicap Chase 10 1 10.00% +£16.00 Keith Reveley Handicap Hurdles 171 28 16.37% +£31.00 Keith Reveley Maiden Chases 1 1 100.00% +£66.00 Mark Bradstock Handicap Hurdles 16 5 31.25% +£15.50 Mark Bradstock Novice Hurdles 31 7 22.58% +£25.10 Martin Todhunter Maiden Hurdle 27 3 11.11% +£21.25 Victor Dartnall Handicap Hurdles 180 34 18.89% +£74.83 Maurice Barnes Handicap Chases 130 21 16.15% +£42.52 Sandy Thomson Novice Hurdles 33 4 12.12% +£50.41 Sandy Thomson Maiden Hurdles 14 2 14.29% +£18.00 Sandy Thomson Novice Chases 14 3 21.43% +£10.00 Tom Symonds Handicap Hurdles 162 25 15.43% +£58.25 Henry Oliver Handicap Hurdles 78 17 21.79% +£28.30 Henry Oliver Maiden Hurdles 17 2 11.76% +£38.00 Nick Gifford Novice Chases 67 10 14.93% +£10.13 Graeme McPherson Handicap Hurdles 222 24 10.81% +£89.50 Graeme McPherson Selling Hurdles 12 4 33.33% +£17.13 Graeme McPherson Novice Chases 33 5 15.15% +£49.25 Suzy Smith Handicap Hurdles 137 27 19.71% +£61.88 Suzy Smith Maiden Hurdles 10 1 10.00% +£16.00 Michael Easterby Novice Chases 28 9 32.14% +£14.55 Renee Robeson Handicap Hurdles 129 20 15.50% +£28.25 Renee Robeson Maiden Hurdles 11 2 18.18% +£59.25 Renee Robeson Novice Chases 18 5 27.78% +£11.63 Brendan Powell Novice Chases 92 13 14.13% +£13.25 Michael Scudamore Handicap Chases 176 25 14.20% +£22.25 Michael Scudamore Novice Chases 31 4 12.90% +£13.00 MichaelScudamore Bumpers 9 1 11.11% +£12.00 Ben Pauling Handicap Chases 23 8 34.78% +£11.50 Mark Walford Novice Hurdles 8 1 12.50% +£11.00 Martin Hill Handicap Hurdles 97 14 14.43% +£72.50 Martin Hill Novice Hurdles 40 6 15.00% +£47.00 Alistair Whillans Novice Chases 16 5 31.25% +£23.00
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Henry De Bromhead Novice Chases 10 1 10.00% +£19.00 Tony Carroll Claiming Hurdles 12 3 25.00% +£10.50 Tony Carroll Novice Hurdles 142 15 10.56% +£67.75 TOTALS 6525 1124 17.23% +£2,377.46
Conclusions (Jumps) – Those who have the time and the inclination may well be best served by following the entire list above in the appropriate races PLUS the Top 10 Trainers list – but this will be quite an effort. Those who want an easier-to-handle list could perhaps just follow the top 10 as below in profit order:
Trainer Race Type Runs Wins Strike
Rate Profit/Loss to Start-ing Price Malcolm Jefferson Handicap Chases 258 47 18.22% +£115.63 Gordon Elliott Handicap Hurdles 151 38 25.17% +£103.71
Graeme McPherson Handicap Hurdles 222 24 10.81% +£89.50 Chris Gordon Handicap Hurdles 361 41 11.36% +£86.80
Anthony Honeyball Handicap Hurdles 125 33 26.40% +£79.82 Victor Dartnall Handicap Hurdles 180 34 18.89% +£74.83 Paul Henderson Handicap Chases 253 39 15.42% +£72.88 Martin Hill Handicap Hurdles 97 14 14.43% +£72.50 Tony Carroll Novice Hurdles 142 15 10.56% +£67.75 Keith Reveley Maiden Chases 1 1 100.00% +£66.00 Suzy Smith Handicap Hurdles 137 27 19.71% +£61.88 TOTALS 1927 313 16.24% +£891.30
Easy enough to do and certainly pretty profitable – hopefully you agree?
betting strategy
enjoy steady Football
Profits With these Free
banker bets selections
I
introduced you recently to the idea of banker bets. Banker bets are defined as your strongest, most con-fident bets. They are logically characterised by the fact the odds are short. Short odds signal confidence from the bookmakers.There are a couple of banker bet tipsters on the market currently, which I mention in the Systems and Tip-sters Update, but I provide my own selections for you at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, under the title ‘Bankers or Blowouts’. The focus is specifically foot-ball bets.
Football is the perfect sport for banker bets because:
» It can be easily researched.
» The matches do go in-play so you could theo-retically get a better price in-play or even lock-in profit when a team leads 2-0.
» Form is generally reliable. Teams show form pat-terns throughout a season and they tend to be very consistent, and readable, under certain circum-stances (i.e. playing at home to teams who are in the bottom third of the league).
For the sake of simplicity, I like to ‘bet and go’, and for that reason I chose level-stake betting. From 18/11/14 10/1/15, backing each selection with a 1-point stake has produced a 6.5-point profit.
Here’s the profit graph.
It’s early days but a 90% strike rate and a longest win-ning sequence of 17 should offer comfort to some. I would recommend those of you who want to follow the selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk to ensure that, if any banker team is 2-0 up, consider hedging your bet by laying that team in order to secure your stake and profit regardless of the final score. This is the simple art of backing a team at a certain price and laying that same team at a lower price. This website provides an excellent introduction to this con-cept:
http://learning.betfair.com/en/videos/achieving-a-green-book.html.
This kind of strategy has helped ensure profits on four separate occasions, most recently when strong favou-rites Paris St Germain led 0-2 away at Bastia, only for the match to end 4-2. Another example fresh in the memory was Liverpool’s 2-0 lead against Leicester, only for a final score of 2-2.
I covered my approach to banker bets in a previous newsletter, but here’s a quick refresher:
» Ignore horse racing. It is too inconsistent. As we want a high strike rate, we should leave backing horses alone. (Note, for the creative amongst you, you can create a ‘virtual banker bet’ by laying a horse between 3/1 to 10/1. Something for you to think about?)
If you cannot leave horse racing alone, then use the Place-Only market, backing a horse to, say finish in the first three in an eight-runner race, rather than insisting upon the horse winning only. You increase your chances of securing a return markedly if you
focus solely on looking to obvious favourites plac-ing only rather than havplac-ing to win.
» Focus on what you know. For me, that is primar-ily football, and secondly, tennis. If you know your NFL, rugby, NBA, ATP and WTA tennis, then include these bets.
» Simply, make a list of all short-priced bets for the day. By ‘short-priced’ I am referring to odds of 1.4 or lower decimal (1/2 odds in fractional terms). That’s what I do. Then research as many as you can. Without research you are betting blind. Some short prices are justified. Others are not. As an example, I researched 1.5-shots Ath Bilbao recently and concluded that they are in such terrible form that they are certainly not backable at 1.5 odds. They lost!!
Banker bets are a great place to start if you have limited funds and want your betting bank to move into profit quickly. The high strikerate (or assumed high strikerate) should engender some psychological comfort and see a steady rise in the betting bank.
The staking plan – I chose level stakes as my first staking plan, because I am selecting football bets and a lot of matches can kick off at the same time. It’s for practical reasons more than anything. Let’s look at how level stakes of just £10 have performed since I started recording my banker bets at www.whatreally
winsmoney.co.uk
After 84 bets, a £100 starting bank has turned into £165.98. If you had hedged your bet when a team led 2-0, this would have increased profits to £195. Let’s model Soccer Streaks (see the Systems and Tipsters Update) and their staking plan, which is 33% of your betting bank. In this case therefore, my initial stake is £33 to a £100 betting bank. We then bet 1/3 of the rolling betting bank.
Without hedging teams winning 2-0, this would have turned £100 betting bank into £223. If you hedged your bets when a team led 2-0, backing selections with 1/3 of the betting bank turned £100 into £1,012. It’s a high-risk venture, as I discuss in the Soccer Streaks review, but combined with hedging in-play, it can really boost the betting bank quickly.
Selections are available at www.whatreallywinsmoney. co.uk, under the headline ‘Bankers and Blowouts’. Do try and hedge your bets. If a team is leading 2-0 during the match, and the match can be bet in-play, lay the team to lock-in profits and, more importantly, to ensure your stakes are returned to your betting bank. It really will boost profits.
At present, there are no other staking plans which maxi-mise returns. Once we have a larger sample of banker bets to work from, more effective staking plans may show themselves.
reVieWs:
systems and
tipsters Update
Diamond Racing Lays
I left you in November 2014 with a conclusion that services such as Diamond Racing Lays and Favourite Lays – two services which layed horses at odds of 3.99 and lower – did not seem to be delivering throughout 2014. A 16-point loss for www.favouritelays.com since the end of October 2014 emphasises my conclusions the November 2014 issue.
Diamond Racing Lays, found at http://betsfortoday. co.uk/tipsters/diamond-racing-lays, has made a 4.33-point profit only since the end of October 2014 to date. A 21-point loss for 2014 is disappointing.
Andy Bell Racing
Andy Bell Racing from www.betfan.com produced a 2014 profit of 452.77 points, which is excellent. Bets are placed at between 2 to 10 points, so bear that in mind when referring to the points profit for the year. At £58 per month, this service is a little expensive, but if you have a focus on the long term, then past perfor-mance suggests a profitable outcome. Those joining in the last quarter of this year though would be very disappointed.
lOng terM PrOMise
The Gambling Don
This is another horse racing tipster from www.betfan. com. Stakes are typically 4 or 5 points to win and 3 points each way, although the Gambling Don increases and decreases stakes as per his greater confidence in some selections.
A 362-point profit for 2014 is an excellent return. Just as with Andy Bell above, the £58 per month fee is relatively expensive. More so when you have losing months, as the Gambling Don did in October, Novem-ber and DecemNovem-ber 2014.
You must have a long-term view, therefore, if you join a service such as this. Imagine if you joined in October 2014, your view of this service would be clouded. If you had joined in January 2014, your viewpoint would
13
be a lot different. I suppose this is the case for all tip-ping services such as this.
Victor Value Racing
Offered by www.betsfortoday.com, this, as I relayed in November’s What Really Wins Money, was a simple level-stakes horse racing tipping service, the main positive being a full write-up on the thought processes behind the bets.
The odds of selections are usually good but predomi-nantly Win Only, although there were sometimes Place-Only betting options earlier in 2014. At these odds, I would like an each-way angle as a form of insurance because big odds mean long losing runs. It is a truism you simply cannot walk away from.
I keep repeating myself, but you must take a long-term view with services such as these – which insist upon ‘value’ (or in other words, big odds) bets. Long losing runs will occur.
I recounted in November 19, 15, and 14-bet losing runs. These can be psychologically tough to take. These services I characterise as ‘faith services’. You have to have faith that the tipster will come up with a timely good-priced winner frequently enough to turn a profit eventually.
What about 2014’s performance? A 95-point profit for the year is just what we want to see. As if to emphasise my points above, there was another recent 19-bet losing run. All in all, therefore, 2014 has been profitable, so I can recommend Victor Value on that. More details can be found at victorvalueracing.com and the service is available for £27 per month.
Each-way Earners
I mentioned in November’s edition of What Really
Wins Money that I thought this service worthy of
monitoring. As you’ve already read in the ‘each-way doubles’ article in this month’s newsletter, you’ll know in what high esteem I place each-way betting.
Bets for this service are advised via bookmakers (Best Odds Guaranteed ideal here) but I would recommend a cursory glance at Betfair SP for the higher-priced selections. There are one to three bets per day with this each-way service. At £29.95 per month the service is reasonably priced, but of course you want the profit / loss info.
A 158.39-point profit in 2014 to a stake of 1 point each way (total 2 points) is excellent performance in 2014. I will definitely be updating you on this service for 2015 to see if the profits continue.
Each-way Statman
winninginformationnetwork.com/eachwaystatman. A 108-point profit for 2014 makes this each-way service worthy of attention. This service, as you can see above, falls under the umbrella of the Winning Information Net-work. The focus for the Each-way Statman, if the spiel is to be believed, is for his selections to primarily finish in the places. This, he asserts, protects the betting bank. November 2014’s performance, I must say, was abys-mal, with a near 70-point loss almost putting paid to all the profits accumulated in the months previous. Decem-ber 2014 saw a 41-point loss, wiping out 111 points of profit from the year’s total before those two months. Having just come across the Each-way Statman from November 2014 onwards, it’s not a pretty picture. I’ll continue to monitor. Keep your £37-per-month in your pocket. He’s obviously going through a bad period. As I said in November’s newsletter, year-long profit is what keeps me interested presently.
Top Secret Tips
This service, from www.tipsterware house.co.uk, hit a bit of form when I last updated for you: a 25-point profit for October 2014. Did this hot streak continue? The answer is no. A 44.57-point loss from 1 November 2014 to the end of the year resulted in a year-long loss of 2.38 points. All of that huffing and puffing for what? The wrong side of break-even. That’s not to mention the £29.95-per-month subscription fees accumulated for the year. How-ever, January 2015, to date, is showing a profit.
www.theracingprofessionals.co.uk
Their main horse racing betting service runs between the months of April and October only. Logic assumes, therefore, that it is predominantly Flat-racing focused. I will be keen to return to this service in April and moni-tor it for the season for you because claimed season-long profits have been very impressive, followed as they are by a full breakdown of bets placed.
And 2014’s results were impressive. But when you start your year with your first bet winning at Betfair SP odds of 607.45, then you know it’s perhaps your year. The eventual season-long profit was some 709 points. I must warn you that this service falls into the category of others like www.price-power.com. They make a year-long profit, but you are going to have some serious losing runs. If you join a service just as a losing run is beginning, then you’ll be filling the swear jar at an alarming rate.
If you like your bets on the bigger-priced horses, and the Racing Professionals ensure sometime-astronomical
odds by using Betfair SP, then this is a service with a three-year track record but no ‘in the trenches’ personal experience to relay to you.
I did mention in November 2014’s newsletter that this service offered two other services in the interim. One is an All-Weather racing service and the other a unique BTTS and Win service (or to translate, a football bet where you bet on both teams to score, as well as a cer-tain team to win).
The All-Weather service has a historically good record but has had a 30-point loss for 2015 so far. I’ll continue to monitor to see if, long term, this service delivers as per the claims of past years.
A 106-point profit for the BTTS and Win service from 15 September 2014 to the end of the year is superb. It is an interesting niche and I am keen to see how this service unfolds over a year.
nOt COnVinCeD...
soccerstreaks.com.
This service will likely divide you into one of two camps – those who want to pay £34.99 for a manual and then £9.99 per month for football tips, with teams priced at between 1.2 and 1.4; and those who think ‘I can do this myself!’
I fall into the latter camp and I would suggest, as I did in this month’s football banker bet article, that you give this a go for yourself initially. If you want someone to do the work for you, then kudos to www.soccerstreaks. com: their service does make a profit currently. The staking plan, though, is very high-risk, and I suppose is allowable if a 90% strike rate is expected. Betting 1/3 of your betting bank helps the betting bank grow quickly, but two consecutive losers will really hit the betting bank badly.
You can start a strategy like this with as little as £60 and see some real growth if the all important ‘R’ word is used. ‘R’ standing for ‘research’, of course. Oh, and the 90% strike rate is adhered to. There is little margin for error, therefore.
It is a tough service to recommend wholeheartedly. I am not too happy with the fact that some of the matches are in the lower leagues – Under 21s, Under 19s foot-ball (I call this ‘headless chicken footfoot-ball’ – a precari-ous betting proposition at best).
I would personally look to lock-in profits in-play when a team has a comfortable 2-0 lead early in the match. Yes, you may be shaving off a few ticks worth of profit, but you are guaranteeing a return. Ask Liverpool, Paris St Germain – heck, even Manchester City – who all recently failed to win matches after leading 2-0 (see my
football banker bet article).
The staking plan is highly aggressive, and if such a staking plan were adhered to, then I certainly wouldn’t be putting my money on lower-league teams or youth football.
I am personally sold on the whole idea of banker bets (there’s another new service below), and I think Soccer Streaks could be employed profitably, but I would focus solely on major leagues – household-name teams with world-class football players – and I would employ hedging techniques, especially with a 1/3-of-betting-bank staking plan.
As I said earlier, I fall into the camp of those who would rather find my own bets, especially at odds of 1.2 to 1.4. I am personally loathed to pay someone to ‘tip’ teams at these odds. After all, the bookmaker has already told you he fancies the team by ensuring you have to place a substantial wager in order to profit by backing the red-hot favourite.
Your job, therefore, should be to collect these short-odds matches and simply justify the short-odds. I do this already via www.drt.club, where I research matches daily. My banker bets for you at www.whatreallywin-smoney.co.uk are a natural offshoot of my research at www.drt.club:
www.banker-bets.com.
As I’m on the subject of banker bets, with Soccer Streaks above, and with my recent articles on banker bets, I thought I’d take a look at this service. ‘Cash in big with our low risk bets!’ So shouts the website. They are launching a service after only five months profit: this is not nearly enough to make a conclusion about this service and I would not advocate joining any service after such a small sample of results.
The banker bets are generally taken from football, NFL Football, NBA Basketball, ATP Tennis, WTA Tennis and the NCAA Football. A claim of 19 winners in November 2014 is eye-catching, but ever the cynic, it is expected. Bets were exclusively at odds of between 1.18 and 1.37. Membership fees begin at £6.75 for the first month and £27 per month thereafter.
I want to see a few more months’ worth of results before I recommend this service. With a service such as this, I would recommend you NOT join their one-year option. With the lack of a realisable track record, and no knowledge of the track record of those behind the service, making a year-long commitment to a banker service is dangerous.
I am monitoring the current set of bets and will update you next month.
15
aVOiD!
www.bettingprofitsformula.co.uk
Let me get down to the point: do not buy this manual. Simple as that: this strategy is available for free online. Please email me at [email protected] if you want to know the website where this strategy can be found for free.
This is a strategy which is already well known and is nothing new. I am surprised this website has actually packaged it for sale, and for £50 a time. So, please do not do as I did (kiss my money goodbye), as there are no refunds.
The strategy does work, but is freely available informa-tion. As far as Betting Profits Formula is concerned, I received no replies to my email queries at all, so the customer service (what customer service??) sucked. One to avoid. Those of you who have joined the excellent Mike Cruikshank’s Bonus Bagging or Profit Maximiser services will already know this strategy and more. Indeed, readers of What Really Wins Money were given a betting blueprint of this strategy for free by the Patriarch in a 2014 edition of What Really Wins Money. In-Play Trading – www.inplaytrading.com/scanner. I love my football statistics. I really do. It’s the backbone of my own football trading service, www.drt.club. This web-browser software provides you with football statistics for football matches which go in-running at www.betfair.com. And those stats are all in one place, and configured in such a way that they provide you with an instant flavour for who’s on top during a game. The In-Play Trading scanner provides you with sta-tistics for both teams in the match in the following categories:
» Shots on target
» Shots off target
» Corners » Red cards » Yellow cards » Penalties » Possession » Pressure index
These are the only statistics you really need in order to profit from in-play trading. This piece of software has transformed my profitability and the profitability of my live chatters at www.drt.club when I operate my live chat sessions at the weekend.
The software enabled me to lay a team during a recent live chat session at odds of 1.04 and win. That’s the same as backing a team at odds of 25/1! This is one of
many profitable bets and trades I have made using the in-play stats.
Once you are able to read the statistics, this software will transform the way you football bettors and traders operate.
The pressure index is a unique innovation and works using some weird and wonderful formula based on the last 10 minutes of play. The pressure index shows the relationship between recent shots on goal and posses-sion. The bigger the figure, the more likely a team is to score. The team with an outstanding pressure index reading are the team really attacking.
This index in itself has proven to be extremely accurate. The scanner allows you to create your own strategies based on the statistics that unfold as the match is being played.
I have become proficient at reading the stats using this scanner, so much so, that some of my live chatters at www.drt.club think Mystic Meg is helping me out! I pay £29 per month currently (out of my own pocket – no freebies here!) which offers extreme value for money. This is an integral part of my football trading now. Just like the arrival of Fairbot, I don’t trade football with-out it. If you are a seasoned football trader and want a way of viewing key in-play stats for in-running football matches, then this scanner is highly recommended. Of course, these in-play stats are available at other websites for free, such as www.bet365.com, www.flash score.com, www.soccerway.com and even www.betfair. com, but having the stats on one single page is the real selling point here.
If you are a member of www.drt.club, please come along to a weekend live chat where you will see how I use in-play stats to profit.
www.doublingfordummies.com.
For £4.95, I thought I’d take the hit here and check out this ebook from the, ahem, eminent Francis Kingsley-Mayer, who has been awarded the ECF Merit for Modern Day Economics and Online Wealth for his ‘achievements of the publication Doubling for
Dummies’. I love a good yarn, I really do. I’ve got a
CSE in woodwork, Francis: beat that, mate!
There is an element of pretentiousness here, what with the double-barrelled name, the (clears throat) ‘award’ and the rather suspect testimonials. The domain name is actually hosted in Phoenix, Arizona and is some two months old, so the contention that this book has sold some 500,000 copies worldwide is hard to swallow. And to the testimonials... Josef Schulz made a rather magnificent £103,750 over the past year (no proof
provided though). Indeed, there’s a photo of him with a girl on each arm. Lucky Josef, I say. He should write Double Your Chances With Women. A bikini-clad Kerry Macintyre’s life has been changed by this book. Truly, it seems, Francis’s award for writing this 11-page PDF is indeed warranted.
Once you’re taken in by the rather fetching Kerry, and rather lucky Josef, you are immediately upsold to a tip-ping service, costing £19.99 per month and £197.99 for the year (down from £497.99 – award-winning Francis really is sharing the love here).
As I said previously in this Systems and Tipsters Update, do not think about joining for a year. This service has magically spirited into experience and we don’t know anything about Francis (why no OBE yet?). There are absolutely no results to go on so, quite simply, you are basing your joining on what? The word of a man with a made-up award!
As to the award-winning manual: well, Francis should get an award for padding to sit alongside his ‘ECF Merit for Modern Day Economics and Online Wealth’.
Doubling for Dummies employs a football
accumula-tor bet chosen from three specific markets in order to create an evens bet. The bookies love accumulator bets, which suggests that this strategy is hardly foolproof – when push comes to shove, it is simply gambling! The manual (sorry, award-winning manual) does not even offer you any methodology as to how to come up with your selections. You are effectively left to your own devices. The examples shown are, well, photocop-ies of two betting slips from Ladbrokes. Where’s the step-by-step guide? Where are the numerous examples so we get this strategy fixed in our minds?
The website tells us: ‘And by following the strategy within this report, you will see exactly how you can double your investment as many times as you wish each day and you need never work again!’
But award-winning Francis double-barrelled-name has not provided us with a strategy. He has effectively said: ‘Find two or three bets in the football betting, make sure they add up to evens, stick them in a bookie-loving accumulator and hope for the best.’
If they win, you’ll double your money. I could have written a Doubling for Dummies 2 which simply states: ‘Find a bet which may win at evens, back it, and you will be doubling your income if it wins’.
This manual is nonsense. The low price will lure you in because some will be suckered into taking up the ‘tips’. Whoever gave Francis his award for this, ahem, 500,000-copies-sold opus needs his/her head examined. I have a colleague following the tips (poor him), so I
will report back. I will try this strategy out myself for what it’s worth using my own selections (and remem-ber, I actually research matches, Francis – should I get an award for that?) and let you know whether I can salvage anything from this product.
I really was a dummy for losing my fiver! Watch out for my version of Doubling for Dummies very soon. This is one of those websites, in my experience, which will have disappeared in a month or two. Be very wary. Do you have any tipsters you’d like followed, or prod-ucts that pique your interest. Then get in touch at www. whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk – leave a comment there – or email [email protected].