The Dollar Index - Daily
March 30, 2021
2
The Dollar Index broke the intermediate resistance level which is now the new support (20D Moving Average
at 92.5) amid an upbeat US economic outlook and rising $ yields. We expect further upside to 94.5-95 which
would mark a significant retracement level from the post Covid drop.
The EUR/USD - Daily
March 30, 2021
3
The Euro broke its 200D MA support and we expect further downside movement with a first target at 1.16.
The diverging path of vaccine rollouts between Europe and the US should continue to weigh on sentiment.
The EUR/CHF - Daily
March 30, 2021
4
The EUR/CHF is still hovering around its 1.105 support.
The GBP/USD - Daily
March 30, 2021
5
The Pound is trading below its resistance line and could fall to 1.32 especially if the vaccine rollout euphoria
fades and post Brexit risks materialize.
The JPY/USD - Weekly
March 30, 2021
6
The Yen is particularly weak and reached the 110 mark. The Dollar/Yen made a major breakout and has ample
room to rise further.
EuroStoxx 50 - Daily
March 30, 2021
7
The EuroStoxx broke out of the 3’865 resistance and is testing the crucial 3’900 level. Stay tuned.
EuroStoxx 50 - Weekly
March 30, 2021
8
On a very long term picture, 3’900 is a major resistance level for the EuroStoxx with a large potential upside in
case of a breakout. Stay tuned.
Style Rotation in Europe
March 30, 2021
9
Cyclicals are back in favour in Europe, especially exporters despite fresh lockdowns and slow vaccination rollout
in the Eurozone.
US 10Y Treasury Yields
March 30, 2021
10
US Bond Yields rose again above 1.75% amid optimism over vaccine rollouts in the US and ahead of the release
of Biden’s long term economic plan on Wednesday.
The Yield Curve and Banks
US and European banks remain resilient amid
high bond yields, lighter regulatory pressure and
economic recovery optimism.
The Archegos debacle is taken as an isolated
event by investors but shows how much banks
have lowered their guard on risk management in
the past years….
March 30, 2021
11
US Banks
Rates & Credit
Eurozone Banks
US Yield Curve
US Corporate Bonds
March 30, 2021
12
The Investment Grade Corporate Bond market continues to drift downwards but the High Yield market is
slightly rebounding amid low risk aversion..
US High Yield
March 30, 2021
14
The US High Yield spreads remain extremely tight. The current market conditions do not reflect the decreasing
quality of issuers, the upcoming boom of bankruptcies in 2021 and the risks facing the economic recovery.
Be cautious.
Nasdaq Futures - Daily
March 30, 2021
15
The Nasdaq rebounded once again on its 100D MA but remains below its resistance level. A continuation of the
correction pattern is the most likely scenario, though the index needs to stay below its 50D MA (13’170) in
order to be confirmed. In that scenario, expect another 1’000 point drop of the index to about 12’000
S&P Futures - Daily
March 30, 2021
17
Once again, the S&P 500 rebounded to its upward trading range and could grind up to 4’000.
Our main scenario is that the index will retest the 3’700 level in the coming weeks and we expect the US
market to lag other markets, such as Europe.
-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
S&P 500 de-trended - Daily
March 30, 2021
18
The de-trended S&P 500 (using the 50D moving average) shows how the index is slowly losing momentum.
Ark ETFs
March 30, 2021
21
Ark ETFs remain in a correction mode amid a repricing of highly valued stocks. New inflows have stopped but
the ETFs have not seen any significant outflow yet. Like other thematic trackers, they remain a good barometer
of greed and fear.
Asian Markets
Chinese markets are holding for the moment
and Tech stocks have rebounded on their 200D
MA despite the Archegos selloff.
The Nikkei remains supported by cyclical stocks
and a weak Yen.
Buy on a pullback to the support level at about
27’200.
March 30, 2021
23
HSI - Daily
Hang Seng Tech - Daily
Nikkei - Daily
Asset Classes – Performance per Year
March 30, 2021
27
Global Indicators
2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 US Equities S&P 500 18.4% 31.5% -4.4% 21.8% 12.0% 1.4% 13.7% 32.4% 16.0% 2.1% 15.1% 26.4% -37.0% 5.6% Russell 2000 19.9% 25.5% -11.0% 14.6% 21.3% -4.4% 4.9% 38.8% 16.4% -4.2% 26.8% 27.1% -33.8% -1.6% NASDAQ 100 48.9% 39.5% 0.0% 33.0% 7.3% 9.8% 19.4% 36.9% 18.3% 3.6% 20.1% 54.6% -41.6% 19.2%Global Equities MSCI World 16.5% 28.4% -8.2% 23.1% 8.2% -0.3% 5.6% 27.4% 16.6% -5.0% 12.4% 30.9% -40.3% 9.7%
MSCI ACWI 16.9% 27.3% -8.9% 24.7% 8.5% -1.8% 4.8% 23.5% 16.8% -6.8% 13.3% 35.5% -41.8% 12.3% EuroStoxx 50 -2.6% 29.4% -11.3% 9.9% 4.8% 7.3% 4.9% 22.7% 19.6% -13.1% -1.8% 27.0% -41.8% 10.4% Stoxx 600 -1.4% 27.9% -10.1% 11.4% 2.6% 10.2% 7.8% 21.5% 18.9% -8.0% 12.3% 33.4% -43.4% 2.9% FTSE 100 -11.4% 17.2% -8.8% 12.0% 19.2% -1.4% 0.7% 18.7% 10.0% -2.1% 12.7% 27.4% -28.3% 7.4% SMI 4.3% 30.2% -7.0% 17.9% -3.4% 1.1% 12.9% 23.9% 19.1% -4.6% 1.2% 22.1% -33.0% -1.4% Topix 7.4% 18.1% -16.0% 22.2% 0.3% 12.1% 10.3% 54.4% 20.9% -17.0% 1.0% 7.6% -40.6% -11.0%
Emergings MSCI China 29.0% 23.0% -18.7% 55.6% 1.2% -7.7% 8.3% 4.0% 22.9% -18.3% 5.1% 62.7% -51.1% 66.6%
Bovespa 2.9% 31.6% 15.0% 26.9% 38.9% -13.3% -2.9% -15.5% 7.4% -18.1% 1.0% 82.7% -41.2% 43.6%
MSCI Emerging Markets 18.8% 18.8% -14.3% 37.8% 11.8% -14.6% -2.0% -2.3% 18.6% -18.2% 19.2% 78.9% -53.2% 39.7%
Bonds Euro Aggregate Bond Index 4.0% 6.0% 0.4% 0.7% 3.3% 1.0% 11.1% 2.2% 11.2% 3.2% 2.2% 6.9% 6.2% 1.4%
Euro 1-3Y Bond Index 0.2% 0.4% -0.2% -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.8% 2.0% 5.0% 2.3% 1.7% 5.8% 5.8% 3.6%
US Aggregate Bond Index 7.5% 8.7% 0.0% 3.5% 2.6% 0.5% 6.0% -2.0% 4.2% 7.8% 6.5% 5.9% 5.2% 7.0%
US 1-3Y Bond Index 3.1% 4.0% 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.6% 5.0% 4.6% 6.7%
US High Yield 7.1% 14.3% -2.1% 7.5% 17.1% -4.5% 2.5% 7.4% 15.8% 5.0% 15.1% 58.2% -26.2% 1.9%
Commodities CRB Index -9.7% 9.4% -12.4% 0.7% 9.3% -23.4% -17.9% -5.0% -3.4% -8.3% 17.4% 23.5% -36.0% 16.7% Gold 25.1% 18.3% -1.6% 13.5% 8.1% -10.4% -1.4% -28.3% 7.1% 10.1% 29.6% 24.4% 5.8% 30.9%
WTI Crude Oil -20.5% 34.5% -24.8% 12.5% 45.0% -30.5% -45.9% 7.2% -7.1% 8.2% 15.1% 77.9% -53.5% 57.2%
Dollar Index -6.7% 0.2% 4.4% -9.9% 3.6% 9.3% 12.8% 0.3% -0.5% 1.5% 1.5% -4.2% 6.0% -8.3%
2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 N o v-1 8 D ec -18 Jan -19 Fe b -19 M ar-19 Ap r-19 M ay -19 Ju n -1 9 Ju l-19 Au g-19 Sep -19 Oc t-1 9 N o v-1 9 D ec -19 Jan -20 Fe b -20 M ar-20 Ap r-20 M ay -20 Ju n -2 0 Ju l-20 Au g-20 Se p -20 Oc t-2 0 N o v-2 0 D ec -20 Jan -21 Fe b -21 M ar-21
Risk Appetite Index S&P 500
Risk Appetite Index
March 30, 2021
28
Our Risk Appetite Index slid back in neutral mode despite the low implied volatility, as momentum declined
and demand for protection rose above the recent trend.
Implied Volatility
March 30, 2021
29
Implied volatilities stabilized but remain very low.
Gold – Daily
March 30, 2021
30
Gold is weakening again amid low risk aversion and a strong Dollar, but has a strong support at about 1’700.
On a long term picture, Gold is coming from a nearly 10 year correction and has the potential to make a $900
breakout in the coming months with a $2’750 to $3’000 target.
Bitcoin
March 30, 2021
32
Bitcoin rebounded amid increased institutional adoption and is making a new attempt to breakout. Stay Tuned
Crude Oil
March 30, 2021
34
We recommend to reduce exposure to Crude Oil and Oil stocks and watch for the monthly close to assess if
WTI Crude Oil is indeed making a major breakout. Long term, we believe that structural imbalances between
supply and demand will support prices.
For the time being, Oil has been volatile amid the Suez Canal incident and ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting.
Stay Tuned.
CRB Commodity Index
March 30, 2021
35
The whole commodity complex (energy, base metals, agricultural products) is also testing a major resistance
level as seen by the price action of the CRB index.
Contacts
March 30, 2021
36
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