January 11, 2016
y
,
Weekly Call
Research Analysts
Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah
[email protected]
Nitin Kunte, CMT
[email protected]
Dipesh Dagha
[email protected]
Pabitro Mukherjee
[email protected]
Deal Team – At Your Service
Weekly Calls
Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS)
Code BAFINS CMP | 2000.40
T ti G t li
Comment Testing Green support line, +ve if breaks above the Red line.
Action Buy in the range of 1950-1980 Reco. Date 11th Jan’2016
Stop-loss | 1931
Targets | 2150 / higher
Deal Team – At Your Service
Weekly Calls
Goa Carbon Limited (GOACAR)
Code GOACAR
CMP | 87.75
Comment Breaking Red resistance lines. Action Buy in the range of 83-85 Reco. Date 11th Jan’2016
Stop-loss | 78
Targets | 98 / higher
Deal Team – At Your Service
Trend Scanner
Positive Trends
Candlestick Pattern
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
HPCL 887.6 826.0 803.0 42.00 Reliance 1,025.8 974.0 953.0 57.00 Balrampur Chini 82.3 70.0 64.0 50.00
Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations
Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP
Aditya Birla Nuvo Continuation 2341.1 Century Textile Engulfing 567.9 Bajaj Finance Continuation 6314.5 PFC Continuation 190.2 HPCL Continuation 887.6 Indiabulls real estate Engulfing 59.8 Reliance Continuation 1025.8 Idea Cellular Evening Star 133.1
Negative Trends
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
Bank of Baroda 140.5 162.0 167.0 34.00 Vedanta 81 1 90 0 99 0 22 00
Reliance Continuation 1025.8 Idea Cellular Evening Star 133.1 SKS Micro Finance Continuation 531.4 Aurobindo Pharma Evening Star 844.7 Balrampur Chini Continuation 82.3 Adani Ports Continuation 241.4 PNB Continuation 105.1 BHEL Continuation 153.6
Legend
Vedanta 81.1 90.0 99.0 22.00 PFC 190.2 207.0 217.0 39.00Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective. Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to understand them is listed at the end of the report
Market Activity
Gl b l M k ts
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance
Global Markets
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance
4,333.8 France 1,922.0 -6.5% -6.0% US UK 40,612.2 5,912.4 -5.3% Brazil -6.3% 20 453 7 17 698 0 INDICES Current 1Wk 1M 3M Sensex 24934.33 -4.7 -2.7 -5.7 Nifty 7601.35 -4.5 -4.8 -7.4 Auto 17383.93 -7.0 -1.5 3.2 Banking 18368.46 -5.6 -3.1 -6.9 Capital goods 13287.13 -6.9 -0.9 -10.9
Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields
Japan -7.0% Hong Kong Germany -8.3% 9,849.3 -6.7% 20,453.7 17,698.0 China -10.0% 3,186.4 Capital goods 13287.13 6.9 0.9 10.9 Cons durables 12030.41 -0.1 0.6 4.1 FMCG 7580.98 -3.7 -0.6 -0.1 Healthcare 16277.75 -3.9 -2.0 -9.4 IT 10776.97 -2.2 -1.1 -6.3 Metal 7123.44 -4.3 0.6 9.1 Oil & gas 9571.69 -0.3 1.7 7.6 Power 1930.55 -2.3 0.1 4.6 Realty 1319.3 -3.8 2.0 -3.5 BSE 500 10266.94 -3.9 0.3 -3.0 BSE midcap 10992.26 -2.3 0.0 0.8 BSE small cap 11651.97 -2.4 0.1 4.9Japanese Yen 117.20 Swiss Franc 0.99
2 4% 0 8%
Euro 1.09 British Pound 1.45
0.7% -1.3%
Rupee (|) 66.64 Dollar Index 98.30
-0.7% -0.5%
Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 -10.6 -11.6 -11.7 -12.1 -2.00 % Ch an ge 2 2 Copper (tonne) 4,482.50 3.9% -4.7% Brent Crude/barrel 32.88 Gold/ounce 1,105.55 Silver (ounce) 14.0 -14.0% 0.8% -2.4% -0.8% -14.00 RE LI A N CE GA IL BP CL PO W ERG RI D PN B VE DL BA N KB A RO DA TA TA M OT OR S % 0.22 -4.6 bps 2.12 -15.2 bps EURO 10 Year JPY 10 Year
India 10 year 7.74 US 10 Year 1.3 bps
0.51 -9.3 bps
Deal Team – At Your Service
Market Activity
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
12 91 9 11 47 6 12 07 8 11 72 1 319 650 88 0 4309 39 40 9244 17 7 10326 54 42 105 33 867 1 13 07 197 234 06 25000 27000 29000 31000 5000 10000 15000 20000
DII FII Sensex
-5 76 8 -3 34 4 53 -1 68 77 -6 47 5 66 -7 07 4 -2 81 7 -4 93 4 1 8 41 42 3 15000 17000 19000 21000 23000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0
Weekly market breadth trends
15000 -20000 Ja n' 15 Fe b' 15 Ma r'1 5 Ap r'1 5 Ma y' 15 Ju ne '1 5 Ju ly '1 5 Au g' 15 Se p' 15 Oc t'15 No v' 15 De c' 15 Ja n' 16 % 2% % % % % % % % % % % 25611 25868 26128 25638 25044 25519 25839 26161 24934 24500 26000 27500 29000 40% 60% 80% rcen ta ge
Advance % Decline % Sensex
48 % 55% 59% 54 % 44 % 61 % 60% 59% 53 % 52 45% 41 % 46 % 56 % 39% 40% 41% 47 % 21500 23000 0% 20%
13-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 27-Nov-15 4-Dec-15 11-Dec-15 18-Dec-15 24-Dec-15 1-Jan-15 8-Jan-16
Pe
r
Week Ended
Deal Team – At Your Service
Previous Week’s Performance
Date Scripp Product Strategygy RP Targetg SL Gain/Loss % Comment
04-Jan-15 NBCC Cash Buy 982.00 1065.00 930.00 4.0 Book profit at 1023
Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (January 11-15, 2016)
COMPANY CMP PIVOT S1 S2 R1 R2 NIFTY 7601.35 7698.50 7459.45 7317.55 7840.40 8079.45 SENSEX 24934.33 25292.18 24467.85 24001.36 25758.67 26583.00 ACC 1295.80 1316.33 1254.47 1213.13 1357.67 1419.53 ADANIPORTS 241.40 249.08 231.67 221.93 258.82 276.23 AMBUJACEM 198.35 199.35 193.10 187.85 204.60 210.85 ASIANPAINT 874.60 884.37 856.83 839.07 902.13 929.67 AXISBANK 413.70 423.20 397.50 381.30 439.40 465.10 BAJAJ-AUTO 2375.85 2427.82 2308.03 2240.22 2495.63 2615.42 BANKBARODA 140.45 146.02 133.23 126.02 153.23 166.02 BHARTIARTL 323.85 326.47 313.98 304.12 336.33 348.82 BHEL 153.60 158.95 146.95 140.30 165.60 177.60 BOSCHLTD 18223.60 18597.87 17775.73 17327.87 19045.73 19867.87 BPCL 903.55 899.35 879.20 854.85 923.70 943.85 CAIRN 129.45 133.68 123.62 117.78 139.52 149.58 CIPLA 622.35 630.77 605.58 588.82 647.53 672.72 COALINDIA 321.10 325.07 313.03 304.97 333.13 345.17 DRREDDY 3010.70 3033.57 2947.13 2883.57 3097.13 3183.57 GAIL 373.20 370.92 360.83 348.47 383.28 393.37 GRASIM 3575.70 3624.52 3466.03 3356.37 3734.18 3892.67 HCLTECH 828.35 832.37 809.78 791.22 850.93 873.52 HDFC 1174.40 1199.10 1144.30 1114.20 1229.20 1284.00
Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (January 11-15, 2016)
COMPANY CMP PIVOT S1 S2 R1 R2 HDFCBANK 1062.35 1065.35 1046.70 1031.05 1081.00 1099.65 HEROMOTOCO 2489.65 2547.88 2426.77 2363.88 2610.77 2731.88 HINDALCO 76.90 79.33 72.77 68.63 83.47 90.03 HINDUNILVR 809.85 828.75 788.80 767.75 849.80 889.75 ICICIBANK 245.05 249.83 238.32 231.58 256.57 268.08 IDEA 133.10 135.52 128.63 124.17 139.98 146.87 INDUSINDBK 947.05 943.22 924.58 902.12 965.68 984.32 INFY 1063.30 1071.22 1039.98 1016.67 1094.53 1125.77 ITC 313.65 316.43 305.87 298.08 324.22 334.78 KOTAKBANK 695.10 703.75 680.50 665.90 718.35 741.60 LT 1179.10 1214.68 1139.42 1099.73 1254.37 1329.63 LUPIN 1712.85 1751.15 1664.45 1616.05 1799.55 1886.25 M&M 1198 00 1214 97 1158 03 1118 07 1254 93 1311 87 M&M 1198.00 1214.97 1158.03 1118.07 1254.93 1311.87 MARUTI 4214.75 4355.85 4054.70 3894.65 4515.90 4817.05 NTPC 139.55 141.20 135.40 131.25 145.35 151.15 ONGC 230.15 233.00 221.20 212.25 241.95 253.75 PNB 105.10 108.87 100.73 96.37 113.23 121.37 POWERGRID 141.65 141.17 137.98 134.32 144.83 148.02 RELIANCE 1025.75 1016.95 995.50 965.25 1047.20 1068.65 RELIANCE 1025.75 1016.95 995.50 965.25 1047.20 1068.65 SBIN 208.95 214.83 202.72 196.48 221.07 233.18 SUNPHARMA 794.15 798.03 774.77 755.38 817.42 840.68 TATAMOTORS 353.35 363.85 327.60 301.85 389.60 425.85 TATAPOWER 68.70 68.40 66.10 63.50 71.00 73.30 TATASTEEL 253.60 259.40 242.40 231.20 270.60 287.60 TCS 2397.60 2384.20 2354.40 2311.20 2427.40 2457.20 TECHM 522.15 517.72 508.43 494.72 531.43 540.72 ULTRACEMCO 2705.20 2723.42 2617.98 2530.77 2810.63 2916.07 VEDL 81.05 84.70 75.50 69.95 90.25 99.45 WIPRO 555.80 555.97 546.93 538.07 564.83 573.87 YESBANK 693.70 699.77 669.63 645.57 723.83 753.97 ZEEL 411.70 417.80 403.25 394.80 426.25 440.80Deal Team – At Your Service
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Date Event
Date Event
US
11-Jan Labor Market Conditions Index Change 12-Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism 12-Jan JOLTS Job Openings
12-Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 13-Jan MBA Mortgage Applications
13-Jan U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
14-Jan Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manf. Business Outlook Survey 14-Jan Initial Jobless Claims
14-Jan Continuing Claims
15-Jan Retail Sales Advance MoM 15-Jan Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 15-Jan Manufacturing (SIC) Production 15-Jan Manufacturing (SIC) Production 15-Jan Industrial Production MoM 15-Jan Business Inventories
India
12-Jan CPI YoY
12-Jan Industrial Production YoY 14-Jan Wholesale Prices YoY
China
27-Jan Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment 28-Jan Swift Global Payments CNY 28-Jan Leading Index
UK
12-Jan Industrial Production MoM 12 Jan M f t i P d ti M M 12-Jan Manufacturing Production MoM 12-Jan NIESR GDP Estimate
14-Jan Bank of England Bank Rate 14-Jan BOE Asset Purchase Target 15-Jan Construction Output SA MoM 15-Jan Construction Output SA YoY
Deal Team – At Your Service
Notes
Pl h d i i hi h ib d id d i h
• Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report
• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on remaining position to the entry point
• In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the recommendation is considered not initiated
• The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products • Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
Withi h d t t it i d i bl t ll t l t t h d ti
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
Deal Team – At Your Service
Deal Team – At Your Service
Candlesticks Glossary:
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and therefore are Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend The market falls and a Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which during a downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’s Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend. The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens over the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
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Disclaimer
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il id t f t f I t d i d t Ri k Di l D t t d t d th i k i t d b f
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