9'37 /

~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15

ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATIC!-i TABULATION

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES 1980

Glenn Taylor and Staff, NHC

National Hurricane Center

Miami, Florida June 1981

UNITED STATES / ^{NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / Nltional Weather}

DEPAKTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Serflce

Philip M. Klutznicx, Secretary Richard A. Frani, Admlni;trator Rlchlrd E. Halleren, Director

9'37

INTRODUCTION

This is the seventh report of an annual series prepared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data

on Atlantic tropical cyclones _{It will} not duplicate the narrative

overview of the hurricane season and the description of individual storms,

In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service,

materials have been furnished by the NOAA National Earth Satellite Services (NESS) Miami office, and the CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, all Hurricanes)

OBJECTIVE FORECAS,!, TECHNIQUE~

The following tropical cyclone prediction models were used at the National Hurricane Center for forecasting motion on an operational

NHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968) A stepwise screening

regression model using predictors derived from the current and 24-hour old 1000, 700, and 500 mb data, and includes persistence during the early forecast periods

2.

A filtered barotropic

using input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb pressure weighted

winds. The model requires use of "bogus" data in data-void areas

The system was modified by Pike (1972) so that the initial

field near the storm would conform to the current storm motion.

HURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970) An analog system using as a data base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes

dating back to 1886

4 CLIPER (Neumann, 1972). Stepwise multiple screening regression using the predictors derived from climatology and persistence

(Sanders

and Burpee, 1968).

5. NHC-72 (Neumann, Hope, Miller, 1972). A modified stepwise multiple ,.

screening regression system which combines the NHC-67 concept and the CLIPER system into a single model.

6.

NHC-73 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973). Similar in concept to the NHC-72 except it also uses the "perfect prog" and MOS (model output statistics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteorological Center) numerical

prognostic data into the prediction equations.

A ten-level baroclinic model which

NMC MFM MODEL. (Hovermale. 1975).

uses a moving fine mesh (MFM) grid nested within the coarser NMC It is capable of predict- fixed grid primitive equation (PE) model.

ing both track and intensity changes.

In addition, operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity changes in knots at 12-hoprly intervals out to 72 hours are generated by a program

Generation of the

named SHIFOR <itatistical ~urricane Intensity !2!casts).

forecast equations was done by multiple screening regression techniques using Results over the past several historical tropical cyclone data as input.

years have shown that SHIFOR and official intensity forecasts have comparable

skill scores.

The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance in the The hurricane forecaster also makes extensive

formulation of its forecasts.

use of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional Center for

Tropical Metleorology) in Miami.

VERIFI<!:AT~

Verific~tion I statistics for the 1980 season are shown in Table 1. The initial posi~ion I ~rror in Table 1 is the difference between the operational initial posi~ion I and that determined during post analysis (best track position).

The forecast! I displacement error is the vector difference between the forecast displacement I and the actual I displacement computed from best-track positions

2

Landfall prediction errors for the official forecasts are given in Tables

2a and 2b. These are defined as the distance from the predicted landfall

point.

made 24 hours prior to actual landfall. to the actual landfall point.

In cases where a storm either crossed an island or made landfall when predicted to remain offshore, the error was designated as the distance from the landfall point to the nearest point on the forecast track.

Tropical cyclone warning lead times for United States landfalling storms are given in Table 3a. A summary of warning lead times for the period 1970 -1980 for hurricanes only and for both tropical storms and hurricanes is given in Table 3b. The length of time between the issuance of the warnings and the time that the center crossed the coast, as determined

from the "best track", was taken as the warning lead time. A more complete discussion of the verification of tropical cyclone warning lead times, as well as verifications for individual storms from 1970 -1977, can be found in the 1977 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation (Lawrence, Hebert, and

Staff, 1979).

DATA SUMMARIES

A summary of 1980 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is given

in Table 4. Tracks of 1980 named storms are shown in Figure 1. No storms

were classified as subtropical during the 1980 hurricane season

The best track, initial, and forecast positions for 1980 named storms are in Table 5, along with initial position and forecast errors, and storm average errors.

Table 6 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations used operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1980. Fixes are in chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance penetrations, satellite (Miami SFSS) , and land-based radar. The legend

precedes the initial table

3

Supplementary Vortex Data Messages which replaced Vortex Profiles in the 1977 Annual Data Tabulation are given in Table 7. A diagram of the paths flown in obtaining these Data Messages is given in Figure 2.

The symbolic code for interpreting the Data Messages is given as Appendix A

Table 8 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1980 season Graphs of the lowest central pressure versus time for 1980 tropical cyclones are presented in Figure 3.

Daily SMS-2 satellite photographs of 980 named tropical cyclones are shown in Figure 4.

Selected radar photographs of Hurricane Allen are in Figure 5.

.\CKNOWLEDGMENTS

-

Main contributors were Ms. Albertha Sanders, who isted the center

fixes in chronological order; Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the verification statistics; Mr. Noel Risnychok, who organized satellite and radar photographs and performed other miscellaneous tasks; Mr. Frank Marques who did all reduction work on the graphs and tables; and Ms. Lilias Wilson, who typed the tables and manuscript

4

REFERENCES

Hope, J. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique for Re1ating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to Past Tracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.

Hovermale, J. B., and R. E. Livezey, 1977: "Three-Year Performance Characteristics of the NMC Hurricane Model," Preprints~

TechnicalConference~ Hurricanes~ Tropical Meteorology, Miami Beach, Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp. 122-125.

Lawrence, M. B., P. J. Hebert, and Staff, NHC, 1979: "Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1977,"

NOAA Technica~ Memorandum NWS NHC-8, 46 pp.

Miller, B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Technique for Forecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548.

Neumann, C. J.. 1972: "An Alternatj-ve to the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System. t, ,NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-62. 24 pp.

, J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: "A Statistical Method

of Combining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Systems," ~ Technical Memorandum NWS SR-63, 32 pp.

'

, and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical

Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion (NHC-73)," NOM Technical Memorandum NWS SR-69, 34 pp.

, 1.979: "A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion," NOAA Technical

Memorandum NWS NHC-II, 26 pp. -

Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction by Adjustment of the Initial Wind Field," NOAA Technical Memorandum

NWS SR-66 , 16 pp. -

Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic Hurricane Track Forecasting," Journal5?l. Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7, No.3, pp. 313-323.

Table 1. Verification of 1980 tropical storm and hurricaneforecasts.

Figures in parentheses are the number ofcases.

Table 2a. Landfall prediction errors for 1980 tropical storms

and hurricanes.

Table 2b. Eleven-year summary of errors in the prediction of

the point of landfall of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during the period 1970-1980.

Table 3a. ^{Warning lead times for} 1980 landfalling United States

tropical storms and hurricanes.

Summary of warning lead times for hurricanes only and all tropical cyclones for the period 1970-1980.

Table 3b.

Summary of 1980 tropical cyclone statistics

Table 4.

Best track, initial and forecast positions, initial position error and forecast errors for 1980 tropical cyclones.

Table 5.

Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for 1980 tropical cyclones.

Table 6.

Supplementary Vortex Data Messages. 1980 Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Table 7.

Tropical cyclone reconnaissance summary for 1980 hurricane season.

Table 8.

Tracks of 1980 tropical cyclones.

Figure 1.

Flight pattern flown in obtaining Supplementary Vortex Data Messages.

Figure 2.

Lowest pressure vs time, 1980 tropical cyclones.

Figure 3.

Daily SMS-2 satellite photographs of 1980 named tropical cyclones.

Figure 4.

Selected radar photographs of Hurricane Allen.

Figure 5.

Code for Supplementary Vortex Data Messages of Table 7 Appendix A.

6

7 .rnQJ~0~_C.J>,C.J~_COC.Jo...iP-O~C.Jo...i~CO~^<I:0(X)0\0rn~(JCO~E-4.^Q)~:3bO0.-4~

Figure 2. Flight pattern flown in obtaining Supplementary Vortex Data

8

Hurricane CHARLEY

20-25 August 1980

00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00

I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

DATE -TIME (GMT)

-""\/""",,-

Tropical Storm OANIELLE

4- 7 September 1980

00 I 12 00 I 1 .I 12 00 12 00 ' I 12 00 ' I 12 00 ' I 12 00 'I 12 00 ' I 12 00 ' I 12 00 ' I 12 00 I I 12 00I I

4 5 6 7 8

DATE -TIME (GMT)

Figure 3 continued.

10

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I I I I I' I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

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DATE -TIME (GMT)

Figure 3 continued.

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25-27 November 1980

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Table 1. Verification of 1980 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.

Figures in parentheses are number of cases.

IIITIAL POSITION ERROR (N.MI.)

FORECAST DISPLACEMENT ERRORS (N. MI.)

12 HR 24 HR 48 HR 72 HR

METHOD

OFFICIAL 16

(209)

126 (188) 55

(199)

274 (140)

405 (109)

NHC67 17

(105)

55 (105)

113 (94)

251 (73)

346 (55)

NHC72 16

(200)

370 (111) 63

(200)

133 (179)

281 (142) 15

(88)

348 (65)

HURRAN SO

(88)

103 (81)

219

.~74) 16

(201)

265 (143)

384 (112)

CLIPER 59

(201)

131 (180)

1.6 (49)

396 (26)

NHC73 51

(49)

112 (94)

230 (34) 15

(61)

61 (61)

122 (55)

284 (40)

481 (27)

SANBAR

11 (19)

84 (17)

MFM 48

(19)

171 (12)

---

(0)

24

Landfall prediction errors for 1980 tropical storms and hurricanes.

Table 2a.

Following is a list of landfall prediction errors for tropical stor~s and hurricanes

during 1980. Each error represents the distance (in nautical miles) from the predicted

landfall point determined from the "Official" forecast issued 24 hours prior to landfall

to the actual landfall point determined from the Best Track. Only tropical storms and

hurricanes are included. In some cases the storm crossed an island when predicted to

pass offshore. In such cases, the perpendicular distance from the landfall point to

the forecast track is taken as the landfall prediction error.

Location and Remarks

Date/Time (Z)

of Landfall

Landfall Forecast

Error (n.mi)

StorQl Name Category

at Landfall

08/04/01Z South part of eyewall

brushed Barbados

Allen (I) Hurricane ^{90 mi. north}

08/04/06Z North part of eyewall

brushed St. Lucia

Allen (II) Hurricane 90 mi. north

08/06/00Z North part of eyewall

brushed southwest tip

of Haiti

80 mi. south

Allen (III) Hurricane

08/06/18Z ^{20 mi. south}

Allen (IV) Hurricane

08/10/06Z

Allen (V)

Bonnie.

J

Charley

Hurricane 75 mi. north

South part of eyewall

skirted Cayman Brac and

Little Cayman Island

North of Brownsville, TX

(no landfall)

Tropical Storm 09/06/00Z Storm developed within

24 hours of landfall

Danielle

25 mi. north Northern Belize

Storm crossed coast of

Mexico in southern Gulf

of Mexico. but forecast to

remain offshore

Ivan, Karl

and Jeanne (no landfall)

Table 2b. Eleven-year summary of errors in the prediction of the points of

landfall of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during the period 1970-1980.

United States Landfalls All Landfa)ls

1980 Average 24-Hour Landfall Prediction Error

(number of cases)

11 Year Average. 1970-1980

(number of cases)

75 miles (1) 41 miles

(19)

63 miles (6) 51 miles

(51)

25

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