The Consequences of a Major Hurricane Impacting Hampton Roads
Robert M. McNab
Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University
September 23, 2021
Bottom Line Up Front
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Numerous hurricanes and major storms have tracked over or west of Hampton Roads since 1850. At some point, a severe hurricane will impact the Hampton Roads area.
Demographic and economic change has increased economic activity, population density, and building density in the urban crescent. Damages from a severe hurricane increase as a result.
Wind and water would destroy over 7,000 structures and damage estimates exceed $17 billion.
Over 200,000 individuals would be displaced and over 15,000 would likely seek public shelter.
Over 2.5 million tons of debris would need to be moved to landfills.
In this first year, Hampton Roads would lose over 176,000 jobs and almost $25 billion in output.
In total, the physical and economic impacts in the first year would approach $40 billion, with significant ripple effects across the Commonwealth and time.
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Past May Be Prologue
Historical Major Storms and Hurricanes in the Commonwealth of Virginia
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Period Year of Major Storm or Hurricane 1600s 1635, 1667, 1693
1700s 1749, 1775, 1769, 1785
1800s 1804, 1821, 1846, 1876, 1878, 1879, 1888, 1889, 1893, 1894, 1896 (2), 1897, 1899
1900s 1903, 1924 (2), 1926 (2), 1928, 1932, 1933 (2), 1935, 1936, 1944, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1959 (2), 1960, 1964, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1979, 1985 (2), 1986, 1996 (2), 1997, 1998, 1999 (2)
2000s 2003, 2004 (3), 2006, 2009, 2011 (2), 2012, 2016
Source: Virginia Department of Emergency Management (2016). Official weather reporting began in Norfolk in 1871, however, early colonists and others recorded severe weather events.
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Population Change in Virginia, 2010-2019
Over 70% of the Virginia population resides in the
“urban crescent” formed by Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads.
Southwestern Virginia has lost population over the last decade
More people are living in areas prone to recurrent flooding and in areas that would be impacted by a hurricane.
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A Major Hurricane is Uncertain But Also Certain
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Virginia has been struck by major hurricanes and storms in the past.
Numerous storms have tracked over or west of Hampton Roads since 1850.
Climate change appears to affect
hurricane formation and strength. Warmer seas are a harbinger of wetter storms.
Hampton Roads is particularly challenged by topography and the number of viable evacuation routes.
Source: Washington Post (2018). Tropical storms and hurricane tracks through the Mid‐Atlantic since 1851. Green indicates tropical storm strength, yellow category one hurricane, orange category two hurricane, and red category three hurricane.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital‐weather‐gang/wp/2017/07/13/why‐a‐single‐hurricane‐has‐not‐directly‐hit‐virginia‐maryland‐or‐delaware‐since‐1851/?utm_term=.633f6356447a. Also available at:
https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/hurricanes
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Hurricane Florence
Simulated Flooding Potential for Norfolk
Hurricane Florence Surge: 6’
Rain: 30+”
Speed: Slow
High Category 1 at landfall
Actual Track – landfall near Wilmington, N.C.
Modified track – landfall near VA – NC border
Rapid Modeling Assumptions & Limitations: Storm surge is visualized using CAT 2 data (MOM approach). Localized rainfall of 36” is modeled for the entire study region (City of Norfolk) without spatial variation.
Water losses or gains from stormwater utility system are not considered.
Evacuation Zones Compared to Potential Flooding
ZONE A
Norfolk Total Parcels: 68,403 Parcels in Evac Zone A: 19,419 Parcels impacted
by flooding: 13,806 (71%)
Flood depth Evacuation Zone A Non-flooded Parcels Flooded Parcels
Deeper Shallower
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Willoughby – Ocean View
Flood depth Evacuation Zone A Non-flooded Parcels Flooded Parcels
Deeper Shallower
Lafayette River Basin
Flood depth Evacuation Zone A Non-flooded Parcels Flooded Parcels
Deeper Shallower
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Downtown - Ghent
Flood depth Evacuation Zone A Non-flooded Parcels Flooded Parcels
Deeper Shallower
Damage Estimates
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Building Exposure by Occupancy Type: Wind Exposure
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Occupancy Type Exposure
(Thousands of Dollars) Percent of Total
Residential $173,813,656 83.0%
Commercial $23,656,194 11.3%
Industrial 5,082,380 2.4%
Religious $2,954,001 1.4%
Education $2,264,787 1.1%
Government $1,147,721 0.6%
Agricultural $474,893 0.2%
Total $209,393,632 --
Source: HAZUS Estimates for Florence-Type Storm Impacting Hampton Roads (2019). Percentages rounded to nearest tenth and may not sum to 100 percent.
Expected Wind Damage by Occupancy Type Florence-Type Hurricane Impacting Hampton Roads
14 Occupancy
Total No Damage Minor Damage Moderate
Damage Severe Damage Destruction Count Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent
Agriculture 1,587 1,298 81.8% 195 12.3% 61 3.8% 29 1.8% 4 0.3%
Commercial
29,561 24,649 83.4% 3,471 11.7% 1,241 4.2% 199 0.7% 1 0.0%
Education 1,421 1,201 84.5% 161 11.3% 53 3.7% 6 0.4% 0 0.0%
Government
1,128 964 85.5% 121 10.7% 39 3.4% 4 0.4% 0 0.0%
Industrial 7,503 6,236 83.1% 864 11.5% 330 4.4% 69 0.9% 4 0.1%
Religion 3,554 3,027 85.2% 414 11.7% 102 2.9% 11 0.3% 0 0.0%
Residence 535,367 435,493 81.3% 81,889 15.3% 15,810 3.0% 1,070 0.2% 1,105 0.2%
Total 580,120 472,869 87,115 17,634 1,388 1,114
Source: HAZUS (2019). Numbers may not sum to totals due to rounding.
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Expected Water Damage by Occupancy Type Estimated Building Damage in Percent
Florence-Type Hurricane Impacting Hampton Roads
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Occupancy 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 >50 Total
Damaged
Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percen t
Agriculture 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0
Commercial 41 18.0% 187 81.0% 3 1.0% 1 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 232
Education 5 100% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 5
Government 52 66.0% 27 34.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 79
Industrial 8 11.0% 45 60.0% 19 25.0% 2 3.0% 1 1.0% 0 0.0% 75
Religion 0 0.0% 9 100% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9
Residence 931 5.0% 6,157 32.0% 3,127 16.0% 1,603 8.0% 925 5.0% 6,321 33.0% 19,064
Total 1,037 6,425 3,149 1,606 926 6,321 19,464
Source: HAZUS Estimates for Florence-Type Storm Impacting Hampton Roads (2019). Percentages rounded to nearest tenth and may not sum to 100 percent.
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107,251
19,464
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Wind Water
Number of Buildings
Estimated Number of Buildings Damaged
Minor Damage Moderate Damage Severe Damage Destroyed
Sources: HAZAUS model for the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA (2019).
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208,571
15,848 0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Total Displaced Displaced Requiring Public Shelter
Displaced Population
Sources: HAZAUS model for the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA (2019).
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1,820,167
643,591
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000
Wind Water
Tons of Debris
Debris Breakdown
Trees Dry Wall / Insulation Brick / Wood Steel/Concrete
Sources: HAZAUS model for the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA (2019). Debris generated by flood originally categorized as Finishes (dry wall, insulation, etc.), Structural (wood, brick, etc.), and Foundations (Concrete slab, rebar, etc.)
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Economic Impact
Estimating the Economic Impact of a Katrina-Class Event
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Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3
hurricane at landfall with sustained winds of 100 to 140 miles per hour.
Jobs in the New Orleans metropolitan area declined by 17% in the first year after Katrina.
We proportionally apply these job declines by sector to the Hampton Roads economy to model the economic impact.
The post-Katrina declines in public employment translate into significant job declines in the public sector in Hampton Roads.
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1-Year Total Estimated Economic Impact Katrina-Class Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads
Direct
Impact Indirect
Impact Induced
Impact
Total Economic
Impact
Employment -94,950 -20,844 -60,234 -176,028
Sales/Output
(in millions) -$15,093 -$2,614 -$5,119 -$22,825 Compensation
(in millions) -$4,152 -$901 -$1,622 -$6,676
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (2019), Chamura Economics – JobsEq, and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Percentages from the New Orleans Metropolitan Statistical Area are applied to 2017 employment and wages in the Hampton Roads MSA. Note that compensation is included in the sales/output estimates and is broken out for illustrative purposes.
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-87,640
-22,175 -14,452
-11,973 -8,631
-7,293 -4,859 -4,604 -4,105 -4,072 -3,344 -2,393 -2,372 -1,625 -1,298
214 4,594
-110,000 -90,000 -70,000 -50,000 -30,000 -10,000 10,000 30,000 Government
Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Retail trade Other services Finance and insurance Manufacturing Admin and support Arts, entertainment, and recreation Professional, scientific, and technical services Information Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Educational services Management of companies and enterprises Real estate, rental and leasing Construction
Estimated 1-Year Employment (Jobs) Impact Katrina-Class Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads
Note: Data are based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data at the 2 Digit NAICS sector level
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-$12,007
-$2,289 -$1,383 -$1,353 -$1,241 -$1,078
-$805 -$771 -$702 -$485 -$459 -$400 -$311 -$229 -$154
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$786
-$15,000 -$12,000 -$9,000 -$6,000 -$3,000 $0 Government
Health care and social assistance Finance and insurance Manufacturing Retail trade Accommodation and food services Information Other services Professional, scientific, and technical services Wholesale trade Administrative and support Arts, entertainment, and recreation Transportation and warehousing Management of companies and enterprises Educational services Real estate, rental and leasing Construction
Estimated 1-Year Output Impact
Katrina-Class Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads
Note: Data are based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data at the 2 Digit NAICS sector level
Summary of Physical and Economic Impacts Katrina-Class Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads
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Buildings Affected (Destroyed)
Estimated Impact Individuals Affected (Requiring Shelter)
Wind Damage 20,137
(1,114)
>$4 billion 1,500
(800)
Water Damage 18,427
(6,231)
>$13 billion 204,125 (15,000)
Employment Loss -- -- >170,000
Output Loss -- >$22 billion --
Total >38,000
(>7,000)
>$40 billion >380,000 (>15,000)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (2019), Chamura Economics – JobsEq, and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Percentages from the New Orleans Metropolitan Statistical Area are applied to 2017 employment and wages in the Hampton Roads MSA. HAZUS model estimates using a track similar to Hurricane Florence.
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Evacuation is a Wicked Problem
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The nature of the problem prevents a solution being known with certainty until the event has passed.
The correct decision made with uncertain information will appear to be the wrong decision when all the facts are in evidence.
The costs of evacuation and a storm shifting should be compared with the costs of not evacuating and the storm making landfall in the unevacuated area.
Even the “best” decision prior to landfall may have an adverse outcome because residents must take also act.
Source: Washington Post (2018). Tropical storms and hurricane tracks through the Mid‐Atlantic since 1851. Green indicates tropical storm strength, yellow category one hurricane, orange category two hurricane, and red category three hurricane.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital‐weather‐gang/wp/2017/07/13/why‐a‐single‐hurricane‐has‐not‐directly‐hit‐virginia‐maryland‐or‐delaware‐since‐1851/?utm_term=.633f6356447a. Also available at:
https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/hurricanes
But Wait…There’s More
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A natural disaster will likely lead to a significant injection of private insurance funds, public flood program funds, and federal and state disaster aid.
In the aftermath of a hurricane, the question would be whether Hampton Roads would respond like Houston or New Orleans?
In the best case, the injection of public and private funds leads to a surge in construction and retail trade employment. The sharp downturn in economic activity and employment is limited and the economy surges ahead.
In the worst case, the injection of public and private funds leads to construction
employment, but residents displace to new locales. The downturn in population leads to a permanent loss in jobs and economic activity.
With a large portion of the economy dependent on defense, Hampton Roads could find opportunity in the aftermath of a hurricane, or, if cities and counties refuse to work together, a long slow decline into irrelevance.
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Questions?
1-Year Total Estimated Employment Impacts Katrina-Class Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads
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Industry Direct Indirect Induced Total
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing* - - - -
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction* - - - -
Utilities* - - - -
Construction 2,960 679 955 4,594
Manufacturing -2,693 -886 -1,281 -4,859
Wholesale trade -1,417 -435 -541 -2,393
Retail trade -9,353 -1,136 -1,484 -11,973
Transportation and warehousing -1,548 -389 -435 -2,372
Information -1,688 -858 -798 -3,344
Finance and insurance -4,366 -1,128 -1,799 -7,293
Real estate, rental and leasing 58 115 40 214
Professional, scientific, and technical services -2,490 -526 -1,056 -4,072
Management of companies and enterprises -770 -205 -323 -1,298
Administrative and support and waste management -3,497 -443 -663 -4,604
Educational services -1,274 -108 -244 -1,625
Health care and social assistance -15,147 -2,794 -4,234 -22,175
Arts, entertainment, and recreation -3,119 -466 -519 -4,105
Accommodation and food services -12,224 -932 -1,296 -14,452
Other services (except government and government enterprises)
-6,581 -671 -1,378 -8,631
Government -31,801 -10,662 -45,177 -87,640
Totals -94,950 -20,844 -60,234 -176,028
Note: Data are based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data at the 2 Digit NAICS sector level.
* Denotes sectors with missing data in the Hampton Roads MSA due to disclosure issues.
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1-Year Total Estimated Sales/Output Impacts Katrina-Class Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads
(Millions of Dollars)
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Industry Direct Indirect Induced Total
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing* - - - -
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction* - - - -
Utilities* - - - -
Construction $518.71 $112.07 $155.35 $786.14
Manufacturing -$995.38 -$163.07 -$194.73 -$1,353.19
Wholesale trade -$325.38 -$72.85 -$86.84 -$485.07
Retail trade -$820.30 -$190.74 -$230.27 -$1,241.30
Transportation and warehousing -$201.89 -$47.91 -$61.33 -$311.13
Information -$562.93 -$135.48 -$106.34 -$804.75
Finance and insurance -$939.85 -$180.75 -$261.98 -$1,382.58
Real estate, rental and leasing $37.88 $11.47 $4.71 $54.05
Professional, scientific, and technical services -$448.18 -$84.01 -$169.76 -$701.95
Management of companies and enterprises -$138.43 -$37.42 -$52.98 -$228.82
Administrative and support and waste management -$293.67 -$62.14 -$102.68 -$458.50
Educational services -$94.09 -$20.70 -$39.50 -$154.29
Health care and social assistance -$1,369.81 -$391.58 -$527.13 -$2,288.51
Arts, entertainment, and recreation -$256.84 -$71.76 -$71.48 -$400.09
Accommodation and food services -$698.07 -$173.28 -$206.66 -$1,078.00
Other services (except government and government enterprises) -$490.20 -$119.17 -$161.51 -$770.87
Government -$8,014.51 -$986.45 -$3,005.91 -$12,006.87
Totals -$15,092.95 -$2,613.76 -$5,119.04 -$22,825.75
Note: Data are based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data at the 2 Digit NAICS sector level.
* Denotes sectors with missing data in the Hampton Roads MSA due to disclosure issues.
