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Bayesian forecasting of mortality rates by using latent Gaussian models

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Fig. 2. Predicted 95% credible intervals for the GMRF ( ) and the Heligman–Pollard ( ) models for UK–Wales mortality data based on observations for the years 1983–1992 (  , true log-probabilities of death): (a) predictions for 1997; (b) predictions for 20
Fig. 3. Predicted means for the GMRF ( ) and the Heligman–Pollard ( ) models for UK–Wales mortality data based on observations for the years 1983–1992 (, true log-probabilities of death): (a)  predic-tions for 1997; (b) predicpredic-tions for 2002; (c) pr
Table 1. Predictive performance of various models: the average predictive measure over the ages 0–89 years is reported

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