Septembre 2012
Point sur la situation chinoise
Valérie Plagnol – Directeur de la Recherche
Septem bre 2012
September 15, 2012 2:44 pm
Chine : une décélération plus marquée qu’attendu
Last data point: 30.06.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mar 98
Mar 00
Mar 02
Mar 04
Mar 06
Mar 08
Mar 10
Mar 12
China Primary Sector GDP Growth
China Secondary Sector GDP Growth
China Tertiary Sector GDP Growth
China GDP Growth
Les indicateurs avancés d’activité signalent la poursuite
de l’atterrissage
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
Aug 09
Dec 09
Apr 10
Aug 10
Dec 10
Apr 11
Aug 11
Dec 11
Apr 12
Aug 12
China PMI Manufacturing SA
China PMI New Orders SA
China PMI New Export Orders SA
Net ralentissement de la production industrielle
Last data point: 15.08.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 91
Jan 93
Jan 95
Jan 97
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
Industrial Production
GDP (r.h.s.)
Tirée par le ralentissement des exportations
Last data point: 09.09.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Aug 01
Aug 03
Aug 05
Aug 07
Aug 09
Aug 11
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Trade balance 12M rolling sum
Exports (r.h.s.)
Imports (r.h.s.)
Notamment en direction de l’Europe
Last data point: 15.08.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar 06
Mar 07
Mar 08
Mar 09
Mar 10
Mar 11
Mar 12
US
Japan
ASEAN
EU
RoW
La consommation finale peine à prendre le relai
Last data point: 31.12.2008
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan 98
Jan 99
Jan 00
Jan 01
Jan 02
Jan 03
Jan 04
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Net Exports
Final Consumption
Gross Capital Formation
L’activité domestique ralentit également : immobilier
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
China Real Estate Investment Climate Index
Le taux de chômage semble rester stable
Last data point: 30.06.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Jan 78
Jan 82
Jan 86
Jan 90
Jan 94
Jan 98
Jan 02
Jan 06
Jan 10
Unemployment
Les salaires ralentissent
Last data point: 30.06.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Mar 00
Mar 02
Mar 04
Mar 06
Mar 08
Mar 10
Mar 12
China wage growth
in %
La consommation des ménages décélère
Last data point: 31.07.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
China - Retail Sales
Les ventes de voitures étaient en ralentissement
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
200'000
400'000
600'000
800'000
1'000'000
1'200'000
1'400'000
1'600'000
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Ventes de véhicules (gl ann)
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
China Vehicle Sales growth (YoY%)
YoY %
Les pressions inflationnistes s’attenuent
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
China CPI
China food CPI
China non-food CPI
Mais dépendent des prix alimentaires et de l’énergie
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Feb 01
Feb 03
Feb 05
Feb 07
Feb 09
Feb 11
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Food & Oil
CPI (r.h.s.)
La politique monétaire vise à contraindre l’inflation
Last data point: 16.09.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Urban Inflation
Interest Rate (rhs)
Les prêts ralentissent
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
Aug 09
Dec 09
Apr 10
Aug 10
Dec 10
Apr 11
Aug 11
Dec 11
Apr 12
Aug 12
China CNY monthly new loans
Last data point: 09.09.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Jun 07
Dec 07
Jun 08
Dec 08
Jun 09
Dec 09
Jun 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
Dec 11
Jun 12
China hot money inflows
USD bn
Entrées de capitaux flottants
La Chine a du répondant
Last data point: 31.12.2011
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
1'000
2'000
3'000
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
8'000
9'000
Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
0.5
Revenue
Expenditure
Fiscal balance as a % of GDP (rhs)
Les réserves de change sont au plus haut
Last data point: 29.06.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
3'000
3'500
Jan 81
Jan 85
Jan 89
Jan 93
Jan 97
Jan 01
Jan 05
Jan 09
L’appréciation du Yuan reste très progressive
Last data point: 31.07.2012
Source: IMF, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
01
05
09
USD/CNY
CNY vs EUR
Last data point: 14.09.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
CNY/EUR
Du fait de l’évolution du taux de change effectif réel
L’appréciation en termes effectifs réels, laisse peu de place à une progression nominale
soutenue.
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Credit Suisse / IDC
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 95
Jan 97
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
Chinese Yuan (CNY) Real Effective Exchange Rate
10y moving average (+/- 1 standard deviation)
Index
rather expensive in REER
terms
Last data point: 31.08.2012
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Feb 04
Feb 05
Feb 06
Feb 07
Feb 08
Feb 09
Feb 10
Feb 11
Feb 12
CNY as a % of total HK deposits
%
CNY en % des dépôts à HK
Quelques éléments structurels
Last data point: 17.09.2012
Source: IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 83
Jan 87
Jan 91
Jan 95
Jan 99
Jan 03
Jan 07
Jan 11
Jan 15
China
United States
Euro Area
Quelques éléments structurels
Last data point: 30.06.2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan 87
Jan 91
Jan 95
Jan 99
Jan 03
Jan 07
Jan 11
Agriculture(%GDP)
Industry(%GDP)
Services(%GDP)
Part de l’investissement et de la consommation % PIB
Last data point: 30.06.2011
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
Jan 95
Jan 97
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
China consumption
China investment (rhs)
Pyramide des ages
Last data point: 31.12.2000
Source: UN, Credit Suisse / IDC
70
50
30
10
10
30
50
70
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
female
male
in m
age
Evolution du PIB par habitant
Last data point: 31.12.2011
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
3'000
Jan 86
Jan 90
Jan 94
Jan 98
Jan 02
Jan 06
Jan 10
Revenu disponible par habitant zones urbaines
Last data point: 30.12.2011
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
3'000
3'500
4'000
4'500
5'000
5'500
6'000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
China Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Households
CNY
Taux de pénétration des cartes de crédit
Last data point:
Source: McKinsey, Credit Suisse / IDC
2%
20%
75%
China on Average
China Major Cities
US
Global Disclaimer / Important Information
References in this report to Credit Suisse include subsidiaries and affiliates. For more information on our structure, please use the following link: http://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/
The information and opinions expressed in this report were produced by the Global Research department of the Private Banking division at Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. Views expressed in respect of a particular stock in this report may be different from, or inconsistent with, the observations and views of the Credit Suisse Research department of Investment Banking division due to the differences in evaluation criteria. The report is published solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Credit Suisse to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. It has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Credit Suisse believes to be reliable, no representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Credit Suisse does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue may fluctuate and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any products mentioned in this document. Alternative investments, derivative or structured products are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding and assuming all the risks involved. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks; economic risks; credit risks; currency risks; and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transaction to individual circumstances and objectives. In jurisdictions where Credit Suisse is not already registered or licensed to trade in securities, transactions will only be effected in accordance with applicable securities legislation, which will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. Credit Suisse recommends that investors independently assess, with a professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. A Credit Suisse company may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof.
Global Disclaimer / Important Information
For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/research/disclaimer
Distribution of research reports
Except as otherwise specified herein, this report is distributed by Credit Suisse AG, a Swiss bank, authorized and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority. Australia: This report is distributed in Australia by Credit Suisse AG, Sydney Branch (CSSB) (ABN 17 061 700 712 AFSL 226896) only to "Wholesale" clients as defined by s761G of the Corporations Act 2001. CSSB does not guarantee the performance of, nor make any assurances with respect to the performance of any financial product referred herein. Bahamas: This report was prepared by Credit Suisse AG, the Swiss bank, and is distributed on behalf of Credit Suisse AG, Nassau Branch, a branch of the Swiss bank, registered as a broker-dealer by the Securities Commission of the Bahamas. Bahrain: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse AG, Bahrain Branch, authorized and regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) as an Investment Firm Category 2. Dubai: This information is distributed by Credit Suisse AG, Dubai Branch, duly licensed and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Related financial products or services are only available to wholesale customers with liquid assets of over USD 1 million who have sufficient financial experience and understanding to participate in financial markets in a wholesale jurisdiction and satisfy the regulatory criteria to be a client. France: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse (France), authorized by the Comité des Etablissements de Crédit et des Entreprises d’Investissements (CECEI) as an investment service provider. Credit Suisse (France) is supervised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. Germany: Credit Suisse (Deutschland) AG, authorized and regulated by the Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin), disseminates research to its clients that has been prepared by one of its affiliates. Gibraltar: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse (Gibraltar) Limited. Credit Suisse (Gibraltar) Limited is an independent legal entity wholly owned by Credit Suisse and is regulated by the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission. Guernsey: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse (Guernsey) Limited, an independent legal entity registered in Guernsey under under 15197, with its registered address at Helvetia Court, Les Echelons, South Esplanade, St Peter Port, Guernsey. Credit Suisse (Guernsey) Limited is wholly owned by Credit Suisse and is regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission. Hong Kong: This report is issued in Hong Kong by Credit Suisse AG Hong Kong Branch, an Authorized Institution regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and a Registered Institution regulated by the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). India: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse Securities (India) Private Limited ("Credit Suisse India"), regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) under SEBI registration Nos. INB230970637; INF230970637; INB010970631; INF010970631, with its registered address at 9th Floor, Ceejay House, Plot F, Shivsagar Estate, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli, Mumbai 400 018, India, Tel. +91-22 6777 3777. Italy: This report is distributed in Italy by Credit Suisse (Italy) S.p.A., a bank incorporated and registered under Italian law subject to the supervision and control of Banca d’Italia and CONSOB. Jersey: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse (Guernsey) Limited, Jersey Branch, which is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The business address of Credit Suisse (Guernsey) Limited, Jersey Branch, in Jersey is: TradeWind House, 22 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE2 3QA. Luxembourg: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse (Luxembourg) S.A., a Luxembourg bank, authorized and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). Mexico: The information contained herein does not constitute a public offer of securities as defined in the Mexican Securities Law. This report will not be advertised in any mass media in Mexico. This report does not contain any advertisement regarding intermediation or providing of banking or investment advisory services in Mexico or to Mexican citizens. Qatar:
This information has been distributed by Credit Suisse Financial Services (Qatar) L.L.C, which has been authorized and is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA) under QFC No. 00005. All related financial products or services will only be available to Business Customers or Market Counterparties (as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA)), including individuals, who have opted to be classified as a Business Customer, with liquid assets in excess of USD 1 million, and who have sufficient financial knowledge, experience and understanding to participate in such products and/or services. Russia: The research contained in this report does not constitute any sort of advertisement or promotion for specific securities, or related financial instruments. This research report does not represent a valuation in the meaning of the Federal Law On Valuation Activities in the Russian Federation and is produced using Credit Suisse valuation models and methodology. Singapore:
Distributed by Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Spain: This report is distributed in Spain by Credit Suisse AG, Sucursal en España, authorized under number 1460 in the Register by the Banco de España. Thailand: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse Securities (Thailand) Limited, regulated by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand, with its registered address at 990 Abdulrahim Place Building, 27/F, Rama IV Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Tel. 0-2614-6000. United Kingdom: This report is issued by Credit Suisse (UK) Limited and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited. Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited and Credit Suisse (UK) Limited, both authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, are associated but independent legal entities within Credit Suisse. The protections made available by the Financial Services Authority for retail clients do not apply to investments or services provided by a person outside the UK, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available if the issuer of the investment fails to meet its obligations.
UNITED STATES: NEITHER THIS REPORT NOR ANY COPY THEREOF MAY BE SENT, TAKEN INTO OR DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY US PERSON.
Japan: Neither this report nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken or distributed in Japan. Local law or regulation may restrict the distribution of research reports into certain jurisdictions.
This report may not be reproduced either in whole or in part, without the written permission of Credit Suisse. Copyright © 2012 Credit Suisse Group AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
