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Labor Markets and Kaleidoscopic Comparative Advantage

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BANCO DE PORTUGAL Economics Research Department

Labor Market and Kaleidoscopic Comparative Advantage

Daniel Traça

WP 4-00 June 2000

The analyses, opinions and findings of this paper represent the views of the authors, they are not necessarily those of the Banco de Portugal.

Please address correspondence to Daniel A. Traça, Economics Research Department, Banco de Portugal, Av. Almirante Reis, nº 71, 1150-012 Lisboa, Portugal Tel.#351-1-3130000; Fax#351-1-3143841;e-mail:[email protected]

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(24)

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WORKING PAPERS

1/90 PRODUTO POTENCIAL, DESEMPREGO E INFLAÇÃO EM PORTUGAL

Um estudo para o período 1974-1989 — Carlos Robalo Marques

2/90 INFLAÇÃO EM PORTUGAL

Um estudo econométrico para o período 1965-1989, com projecções para 1990 e 1991 — Carlos Robalo Marques

3/92 THE EFFECTS OF LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS ON CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR

The Portuguese Experience — Sílvia Luz

4/92 LOW FREQUENCY FILTERING AND REAL BUSINESS CYCLES

— Robert G. King, Sérgio T. Rebelo

5/92 GROWTH IN OPEN ECONOMIES

— Sérgio Rebelo

6/92 DYNAMIC OPTIMAL TAXATION IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES

— Isabel H. Correia

7/92 EXTERNAL DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

— Isabel H. Correia

8/92 BUSINESS CYCLES FROM 1850 TO 1950: NEW FACTS ABOUT OLD DATA

— Isabel H. Correia, João L. Neves, Sérgio Rebelo

9/92 LABOUR HOARDING AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

— Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, Sérgio Rebelo

10/92 ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS IN PORTUGAL USING PANEL DATA

— Luísa Farinha

11/92 INFLATION IN FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE RECENT PORTUGUESE EXPERIENCE

— Sérgio Rebelo

12/92 TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN PORTUGAL — Armindo Escalda

13/92 AUCTIONING INCENTIVE CONTRACTS: THE COMMON COST CASE — Fernando Branco

14/92 INDEXED DEBT AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY — António S. Mello, John Parsons

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15/92 “TESTING” FOR MEAN AND VARIANCE BREAKS WITH DEPENDENT DATA — José A. F. Machado

16/92 COINTEGRATION AND DYNAMIC SPECIFICATION — Carlos Robalo Marques

17/92 FIRM GROWTH DURING INFANCY — José Mata

18/92 THE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE IN PORTUGAL: 1980 and 1990

— Miguel Gouveia, José Tavares

19/92 THE DESIGN OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL AUCTIONS — Fernando Branco

20/92 MARGINAL INCOME TAX RATES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

— Sérgio Rebelo, William Easterly

21/92 THE EFFECT OF DEMAND AND TECHNOLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF NEW FIRMS

— José Mata, Pedro Portugal

22/92 TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL — Robert G. King, Sérgio Rebelo

23/92 AN INTEGRATED MODEL OF MULTINATIONAL FLEXIBILITY AND FINANCIAL HEDGING — António S. Mello, Alexander J. Triantis

24/92 CHOOSING AN AGGREGATE FOR MONETARY POLICY: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH — Carlos Robalo Marques, Margarida Catalão Lopes

25/92 INVESTMENT: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS, REGULATED INTEREST RATES AND

EXPECTATIONS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION- THE PORTUGUESE EXPERIENCE

— Koleman Strumpf

1/93 SUNK COSTS AND THE DYNAMICS OF ENTRY

— José Mata

2/93 POLICY, TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND GROWTH

— William Easterly, Robert King, Ross Levine, Sérgio Rebelo

3/93 OPTIMAL AUCTIONS OF A DIVISIBLE GOOD

— Fernando Branco

4/93 EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL OLIGOLOPY

— Luís Cabral, António S. Mello

5/93 A MODEL OF BRANCHING WITH AN APPLICATION TO PORTUGUESE BANKING

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6/93 HOW DOES NEW FIRM SURVIVAL VARY ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND TIME? — José Mata, Pedro Portugal

7/93 DO NOISE TRADERS “CREATE THEIR OWN SPACE”?

— Ravi Bhushan, David P. Brown, António S. Mello

8/93 MARKET POWER MEASUREMENT – AN APPLICATION TO THE PORTUGUESE CREDIT

MARKET

— Margarida Catalão Lopes

9/93 CURRENCY SUBSTITUTABILITY AS A SOURCE OF INFLATIONARY DISCIPLINE

— Pedro Teles

10/93 BUDGET IMPLICATIONS OF MONETARY COORDINATION IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY

— Pedro Teles

11/93 THE DETERMINANTS OF FIRM START-UP SIZE — José Mata

12/93 FIRM START-UP SIZE: A CONDITIONAL QUANTILE APPROACH — José Mata, José A. F. Machado

13/93 FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION — William Easterly, Sérgio Rebelo

14/93 BETA ESTIMATION IN THE PORTUGUESE THIN STOCK MARKET — Armindo Escalda

15/93 SHOULD CAPITAL INCOME BE TAXED IN THE STEADY STATE? — Isabel H. Correia

16/93 BUSINESS CYCLES IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY — Isabel H. Correia, João C. Neves, Sérgio Rebelo

17/93 OPTIMAL TAXATION AND CAPITAL MOBILITY — Isabel H. Correia

18/93 A COMPOSITE COINCIDENT INDICATOR FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY — Francisco Craveiro Dias

19/93 PORTUGUESE PRICES BEFORE 1947: INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OBSERVED COST OF LIVING INDEX AND THE GDP PRICE ESTIMATION OF NUNES, MATA AND VALÉRIO (1989)

— Paulo Soares Esteves

20/93 EVOLUTION OF PORTUGUESE EXPORT MARKET SHARES (1981-91) — Cristina Manteu, Ildeberta Abreu

1/94 PROCUREMENT FAVORITISM AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION

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2/94 WAGE RIGIDITY AND JOB MISMATCH IN EUROPE: SOME EVIDENCE — Sílvia Luz, Maximiano Pinheiro

3/94 A CORRECTION OF THE CURRENT CONSUMPTION INDICATOR – AN APPLICATION OF

THE INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH — Renata Mesquita

4/94 PORTUGUESE GDP AND ITS DEFLATOR BEFORE 1947: A REVISION OF THE DATA

PRODUCED BY NUNES, MATA AND VALÉRIO (1989) — Carlos Robalo Marques, Paulo Soares Esteves

5/94 EXCHANGE RATE RISK IN THE EMS AFTER THE WIDENING OF THE BANDS

IN AUGUST 1993 — Joaquim Pires Pina

6/94 FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND FIRM POST-ENTRY PERFORMANCE

— Paulo Brito, António S. Mello

7/94 STRUCTURAL VAR ESTIMATION WITH EXOGENEITY RESTRICTIONS

— Francisco C. Dias, José A. F. Machado, Maximiano R. Pinheiro

8/94 TREASURY BILL AUCTIONS WITH UNINFORMED BIDDERS

— Fernando Branco

9/94 AUCTIONS OF SHARES WITH A SECONDARY MARKET AND TENDER OFFERS

— António S. Mello, John E. Parsons

10/94 MONEY AS AN INTERMEDIATE GOOD AND THE WELFARE COST OF THE INFLATION TAX

— Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles

11/94 THE STABILITY OF PORTUGUESE RISK MEASURES — Armindo Escalda

1/95 THE SURVIVAL OF NEW PLANTS: START-UP CONDITIONS AND POST-ENTRY

EVOLUTION

— José Mata, Pedro Portugal, Paulo Guimarães

2/95 MULTI-OBJECT AUCTIONS: ON THE USE OF COMBINATIONAL BIDS

— Fernando Branco

3/95 AN INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY

— Francisco Ferreira Gomes

4/95 IS THE FRIEDMAN RULE OPTIMAL WHEN MONEY IS AN INTERMEDIATE GOOD?

— Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles

5/95 HOW DO NEW FIRM STARTS VARY ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND OVER TIME?

— José Mata

6/95 PROCUREMENT FAVORITISM IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY

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7/95 MARKETS, ENTREPRENEURS AND THE SIZE OF NEW FIRMS — José Mata

1/96 CONVERGENCE ACROSS EU COUNTRIES: INFLATION AND SAVINGS RATES ON

PHYSICAL AND HUMAN CAPITAL — Paulo Soares Esteves

2/96 THE OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX

— Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles

3/96 FISCAL RULES OF INCOME TRANSFORMATION

— Isabel H. Correia

4/96 ON THE EFFICIENCY AND EQUITY TRADE-OFF

— Isabel H. Correia

5/96 DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE ELIMINATION OF CAPITAL TAXATION

— Isabel H. Correia

6/96 LOCAL DYNAMICS FOR SPHERICAL OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS

— Paulo Brito

7/96 A MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION FOR PORTUGAL

— João Sousa

8/96 COMPARATIVE EXPORT BEHAVIOUR OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FIRMS IN

PORTUGAL — Sónia Cabral

9/96 PUBLIC CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN THE US

— Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Rafael Flores de Frutos

10/96 IMPORTED CAPITAL AND DOMESTIC GROWTH: A COMPARISON BETWEEN EAST ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

— Ling-ling Huang, Alfredo Marvão Pereira

11/96 ON THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE R&D — Robert B. Archibald, Alfredo Marvão Pereira

12/96 EXPORT GROWTH AND DOMESTIC PERFORMANCE — Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Zhenhui Xu

13/96 INFRASTRUCTURES AND PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN SPAIN — Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Oriol Roca Sagales

14/96 PUBLIC INVESTMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

— Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Norman Morin

15/96 COMPETITION POLICY IN PORTUGAL — Pedro P. Barros, José Mata

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16/96 THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY Luísa Farinha, José Mata

17/96 THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATION METHODS WITH AN APPLICATION TO PORTUGAL

— Nuno Cassola, Jorge Barros Luís

18/96 SHORT-AND LONG-TERM JOBLESSNESS: A SEMI-PARAMETRIC MODEL WITH TIME -VARYING EFFECTS

— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison

19/96 SOME SPECIFICATION ISSUES IN UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION ANALYSIS — Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison

20/96 SEQUENTIAL AUCTIONS WITH SYNERGIES: AN EXAMPLE — Fernando Branco

21/96 HEDGING WINNER'S CURSE WITH MULTIPLE BIDS: EVIDENCE FROM THE PORTUGUESE TREASURY BILL AUCTION

— Michael B. Gordy

22/96 THE BRICKS OF AN EMPIRE 1415-1999: 585 YEARS OF PORTUGUESE EMIGRATION — Stanley L. Engerman, João César das Neves

1/97 LOCAL DYNAMICS FOR PLANAR OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS: A COMPLETE

CHARACTERIZATION — Paulo Brito

2/97 INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE

— Bernardino Adão, Nuno Ribeiro

3/97 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND JOBLESSNESS: A DISCRETE DURATION MODEL

WITH MULTIPLE DESTINATIONS — Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison

4/97 THE TREASURY BILL MARKET IN PORTUGAL: INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES AND PROFIT

MARGINS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS — Bernardino Adão, Jorge Barros Luís

5/97 ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE: AN APPLICATION

TO PORTUGAL

— Nuno Cassola, João Nicolau, João Sousa

6/97 ESTIMATION OF THE NAIRU FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY

— Carlos Robalo Marques, Susana Botas

7/97 EXTRACTION OF INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS IMPLICIT IN OPTIONS:

THE CASE OF SPAIN AND ITALY IN THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION — Bernardino Adão, Jorge Barros Luís

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1/98 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE PORTUGUESE AND SPANISH LABOUR MARKETS — Olympia Bover, Pilar García-Perea, Pedro Portugal

2/98 EARNING FUNCTIONS IN PORTUGAL 1982-1994: EVIDENCE FROM QUANTILE

REGRESSIONS

— José A. F. Machado, José Mata

3/98 WHAT HIDES BEHIND AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: COMPARING PORTUGUESE

AND US UNEMPLOYMENT — Olivier Blanchard, Pedro Portugal

4/98 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND JOBLESSNESS IN PORTUGAL

— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison

5/98 EMU, EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND BID-ASK SPREADS

— Nuno Cassola, Carlos Santos

6/98 CONSUMER EXPENDITURE AND COINTEGRATION

— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves

7/98 ON THE TIME-VARYING EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE ON JOBLESSNESS

— John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal

8/98 JOB SEARCH METHODS AND OUTCOMES

— John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal

1/99 PRICE STABILITY AND INTERMEDIATE TARGETS FOR MONETARY POLICY

— Vítor Gaspar, Ildeberta Abreu

2/99 THE OPTIMAL MIX OF TAXES ON MONEY, CONSUMPTION AND INCOME

— Fiorella De Fiore, Pedro Teles

3/99 OPTIMAL EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION: BONUS, GOLDEN PARACHUTES, STOCK

OWNERSHIP AND STOCK OPTIONS — Chongwoo Choe

4/99 SIMULATED LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF NON-LINEAR DIFFUSION PROCESSES

THROUGH NON-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PORTUGUESE INTEREST RATE

— João Nicolau

5/99 IBERIAN FINANCIAL INTEGRATION

—Bernardino Adão

6/99 CLOSURE AND DIVESTITURE BY FOREIGN ENTRANTS: THE IMPACT OF ENTRY AND

POST-ENTRY STRATEGIES — José Mata, Pedro Portugal

1/00 UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION: COMPETING AND DEFECTIVE RISKS

(32)

2/00 THE ESTIMATION OF RISK PREMIUM IMPLICIT IN OIL PRICES — Jorge Barros Luís

3/00 EVALUATING CORE INFLATION INDICATORS

— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves, Luís Morais Sarmento

4/00 LABOR MARKETS AND KALEIDOSCOPIC COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

References

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