European Freight Forwarding Index

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Investment Research

Volume development in January 2014

European Freight Forwarding Index

Philip Levin

+45 26 19 26 17

Erik Bergöö

+45 45 12 80 36

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Main conclusion from survey

Danske Bank Markets European Freight Forwarding Index indicates unchanged volumes in

January compared with two months ago. The overall index of current volumes came in at 51

compared with Decembers figure of 50. Participants expectations suggest increasing

volumes in the coming two months.

80 51 50 62 69 20 30 40 50 60 70

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Current Expected 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Expected)

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Volumes unchanged in January

• The overall index for current volumes in January of 51 (50 in December) shows

unchanged volumes compared with two months ago. The forward index values are now at

62 for February and 69 for March, which indicate expectations of increasing volumes.

• The road index of 51 indicates that current volumes are almost unchanged from two

months ago. The index decreased from Decembers figure of 55. Expectations for Road

came in at 69 for March which is slightly higher than 67 in February. The forward index

thus indicates expanding volumes over the next two months.

• The Airfreight index of 56 indicates increasing volumes compared with two months ago.

The index increased from Decembers reading of 44. Expectations for Airfreight increased

to 69 for March (59 in February) indicating higher volumes over the next two months.

• The Seafreight index of 50 indicates unchanged volumes compared with two months ago.

The index for December was 44. Expectations for Seafreight for March came in at 66,

which was slightly higher compared to Februarys figure of 65. The index indicates higher

volumes over the next two months.

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Segment breakdown of survey

Road

Seafreight

69 51 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue 50 66 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue 0

mar-10 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13

In d ex V al ue Current Expected 0

In d ex V al ue Current Expected 69 56 0 20 40 60 80 100

In d ex V al ue Current Expected

Source: Danske Bank Markets

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Country breakdown of survey

Benelux

Denmark

50 92 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue 81 53 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue

Finland

Eastern Europe

0

In d ex V al ue Current Expected 0

In d ex V al ue Current Expected 21 56 78 0 20 40 60 80 100

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Country breakdown of survey

Germany

UK

38 69 0 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue 65 58 0 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue

Sweden

Norway

0

Current Expected

0

Current Expected 39 39 0 20 40 60 80 100

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Country breakdown of survey

Switzerland

Other

88 69 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue 50 36 20 40 60 80 100 In d ex V al ue 0 20

In d ex V al ue Current Expected 0 20

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How the survey is conducted

• Our respondents have answered these two questions:

− What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago

(adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?

− Lower volumes

− Unchanged volumes

− Higher volumes

− How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal

seasonality in the business)?

− Lower volumes

− Unchanged volumes

− Higher volumes

• Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between 0 and

100, with values above 50 indicating expansion among participating companies.

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Segment breakdown for participants

Road 38% Other 18% 38% Seafreight 31% Airfreight 13%

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Country breakdown for participants

Benelux 7% Denmark 18% UK 14% Other 8% Eastern Europe 12% Finland 9% Germany 11% Norway 7% Sweden 9% Switzerland 5%

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Disclosure

This presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (Danske Bank). The authors of the presentation are Erik Bergöö and Philip Levin, Analysts.

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Date of first publication

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European Freight Forwarding Index

Investment Research

Volume development in January 2014