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CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS
Workshop on Statistical Data Collection: Riding the Data Deluge
29 April – 1 May, Washington D.C., United States of America!
WP.6
29 April 2015!
2015 Census Test
Stephen Buckner (U.S. Census Bureau)
Stephen.L.Buckner@census.org!
Abstract and Paper
As the U.S. Census Bureau gears up for the next census in 2020, the agency conducts many tests to assess preparations. In 2015, the agency has test censuses in Savannah, Georgia and Maricopa County, Arizona.
The census is vital to making informed decisions about the nation’s infrastructure. But counting every resident of the United States comes with an enormous price tag. By far, the most costly components of the decennial enumeration are in-person data collection and follow-up by phone when residents do not complete and submit their census forms.
To determine whether digital advertising and microtargeted digital advertising will help increase resident participation in the early stages of a census count, the U.S. Census Bureau is conducting a test in the Savannah, Georgia media market, integrating new media strategies with traditional communications tactics.
The Census Bureau is segmenting the market into five test panels, serving varying mixes of digital media in those panels and matching relevant advertisements with hard-to-reach audiences. The resulting findings will inform policy decisions for increasing census response rates, including whether to use digital advertising to promote the census in 2020 and beyond.
Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical
Division
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
Session: Riding the Wave of the Data Deluge: Linking Data Collection and Communication
2015 Census Test
Stephen L. Buckner U.S. Census Bureau
April 2015 Abstract
As the U.S. Census Bureau gears up for the next census in 2020, the agency conducts many tests to
assess preparations. In 2015, the agency has test censuses in Savannah, Georgia and Maricopa County,
Arizona.
The census is vital to making informed decisions about the nation’s infrastructure. But counting every
resident of the United States comes with an enormous price tag. By far, the most costly components of
the decennial enumeration are in‐person data collection and follow‐up when residents do not complete
and submit their census forms.
To determine whether digital advertising and microtargeted digital advertising will help increase
participation in the early stages of a census count, the U.S. Census Bureau is conducting a test in the
Savannah, Georgia media market, integrating new media strategies with traditional communications
tactics.
The Census Bureau segmented the market into five test panels, serving varying mixes of digital media in
those panels and matching relevant advertisements with hard‐to‐count audiences. The resulting findings
will inform policy decisions for increasing census response rates, including whether to use digital
advertising to promote the census in 2020 and beyond.
Background
During the years preceding the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau will pursue its commitment to reduce
the cost of conducting the next decennial census while still providing the highest data quality possible.
A primary decennial census cost driver is the collection of data in person from addresses for which the
Census Bureau received no response. We refer to these as nonresponse cases, and to the in‐person
visits to them as Nonresponse Followup, or NRFU. Increasing the number of people who take advantage
of self‐response options (such as completing a paper questionnaire and mailing it back to the Census
Bureau, or responding via telephone or Internet alternatives) can contribute to a less costly census. The
Census Bureau has committed to using the Internet as a primary response option in the 2020 Census, so
we need to study ways to offer and promote the Internet as a self‐response option for the 2020 Census.
In addition to increasing and optimizing self‐response through the Internet, the Census Bureau plans to
incorporate the use of new technologies, such as advertising via social media, encouraging the use of
questionnaire without a unique geographic identification code. We are focusing on studying these
outreach and self‐response approaches in the 2015 Census Test in the Savannah, GA area.
The 2015 Census Test in selected counties in and surrounding Savannah, GA, and adjacent counties in
South Carolina, will allow the Census Bureau to study a variety of new methods and advanced
technologies that are under consideration for the 2020 Census. The Census Bureau will conduct this test
in the Savannah Media Market, which includes 20 counties, 17 in Georgia and 3 in South Carolina, with
approximately 350,000 households. This media market has diversity in demographics, address types,
and Internet penetration and usage. We primarily selected this market because we consider it fairly
self‐contained, which will limit bleed‐over of advertising efforts into neighboring media markets, while
conducting a full outreach and advertising effort for all households in the test area. Additionally, it is
cost effective for the Census Bureau to advertise in this medium sized market area; we are able to
purchase media for approximately seven cents on the dollar for identical advertising in a large market,
such as Chicago.
While operational tests can exist independently, we cannot conduct an advertising test without a
concurrent operational test. That said, our advertising efforts are not only allowing us to answer
advertising research questions, but are also supporting the Optimizing Self‐Response (OSR) site test. The
test began on February 23, 2015 with “Notify Me.” This operation allowed potential respondents to
register in advance and choose their preferred contact method, text or email, for notification when the
actual Census Test commenced. Data collection began on March 23, 2015 with a Census Day of April 1.
Only 90,000 households within the test site were selected to receive mail notifications, 30,000 received
invitations to preregister, 30,000 received invitations to respond online with a Census ID, and 30,000
received invitations to respond online without a Census ID. Test responses driven by advertising are
considered non‐ID cases, and any household in the market is able to respond through advertising
channels whether or not they were in‐sample to receive a mailing.
Simulating a Decennial Census Environment
We designed the communications program for the 2015 Census Test to mimic a decennial census
environment on a smaller scale, that is, we implemented all traditional advertising tactics utilized in the
2010 Census while adding and testing new tactics, specifically general and targeted digital advertising
and social media. Traditional advertising tactics consist of TV, radio, print, out‐of‐home, earned media,
and partnerships, which are all spread throughout the test market.
Broadcast‐quality TV advertisements are an important component of our efforts to raise awareness of
the census test within the test market. We produced three distinctive ads with a 90, 60, and 15 second
version for each concept: “Fabric”, “My Census”, and “Questions”. These ads also served as the
foundation for corresponding videos in other formats: digital ads, testimonials, and social share videos.
“Fabric” appeals to those who feel a connection to history and the notion of ancestry, making the
census a part of the ties that bind families and communities. “My Census” appeals to those who are
roads. Finally, “Questions” plays on the curiosity of children, using their inquisitive nature and near
universal popularity as a launching pad for educating audiences on the impacts of census data.
We created multiple versions of radio ads, both prerecorded and “live read” scripts for radio
personalities to read while on air, for use on AM and FM frequencies. Placements were purchased
mostly during the morning and evening rush‐hour drive times and within programming focused on hard‐
to‐count audiences. Print advertisements were designed for newspapers and magazines and to reach
populations (particularly in rural areas) who are more likely to notice and/or trust their local or
demographically oriented publication. Out of Home ads were placed in the form of billboards of varying
sizes as they are an effective way to deliver messages to consumers living in both rural and suburban
areas.
We made media toolkits available on the Census website containing resources for outlets and reporters
interested in covering or learning more about the 2015 Census Test. These contained a test timeline,
answers to frequently asked questions, fact sheets, approved spokespeople with contact lists and bios,
list of partners, and information on planned events. We also signed on over 300 partners to promote the
importance of the 2015 Census test and encourage response among their networks. We worked with
many partners on our two main events: an early media event and another on Census Day.
New advertising tactics for the 2015 Census Test include general and targeted digital advertising and
greater use of social media. These tactics have grown in prevalence and popularity due to technologic
advances occurring after the last Census in 2010. In 2010, only eight percent of the advertising budget
supported digital advertising; in this test, the digital advertising allotment, including mobile, is
approximately 48 percent. General digital advertising consists of online advertisements in any platform
designed for mass consumption. Targeted digital advertisements are also executable within any
platform but are designed for consumption by a specific audience with tailored messaging, language,
and/or placement. Benefits to using digital advertising include: less expensive entry costs, scalable
budgets, greater targeting precision, real‐time feedback, the ability to efficiently pilot and test, and the
ability to quickly adjust strategies.
In addition to using digital ads within social media platforms such and Facebook and Twitter, we also
have increased our social media presence and increased our engagement of the community. We publicly
provided social media shareable content via our social hub, encouraged the use of our hashtag
#wecount2015, and also have an online gallery where people can share stories and photos. We also
encouraged our partners to share information related to the test via their social media properties.
Advertising Test
In addition to supporting the OSR test and encouraging online response via messaging, we are also
attempting to answer communications research questions regarding the use and impact of general and
targeted digital advertising. Additionally, we also embedded another test on using influencer phone
calls. Our overarching research question is: What are the effects of integrating and combining digital
advertising and targeted digital advertising with other traditional communications? Specifically, we will
specific socio‐demographic groups, internet and self‐response rates of housing unit targeted by specific
OSR mail‐out strategies, and also on preregistration rates (from “Notify Me”). For these same rates, we
will analyze the effects of high and low spending levels for both types of digital advertising. We created
the following panel design to allow us to answer our research questions upon completion of the 2015
Census Test.
*estimated
Therefore, the type of advertising one is exposed to in the test area is dependent upon the zip code in
which they reside and to which panel that zip code belongs. All 106 zip codes in the test market belong
to one of the five panels above. Note there are a few more than 106 zip codes, but we linked those zip
codes with fewer than 400 households to their nearest larger neighbor. To assign zip codes to panels,
we ran Monte Carlo style simulations and selected the final design based on two primary objectives:
1. To maximize the parity between eight demographic characteristics using seven variables related
to historically low response rates from previous Census and the American Community Survey
and one measure of internet connectivity. (These include: percent age 18‐24, percent age 65+,
percent renters, percent African American, percent of households with children under six
related to household residents, percent less than high school education, percent of households
with female head of household with no male present, and percent of households with internet
2. To maximize geographic closeness of the zip codes within panels to help alleviate advertising
bleed, or advertising viewed in a location for which it was not intended.
Additionally, we embedded a smaller test on the effectiveness of influencer phone calls to motivate self‐
response. Past research shows mixed results on their overall efficacy; however, we are utilizing this
opportunity to determine whether we will continue to explore this tactic. While we cannot easily scale
influencer calls to the entire nation during the 2020 Census, we believe they can be useful in particularly
hard‐to‐count areas and/or as crisis mitigation for unexpected issues.
Of the households that are not receiving any type of OSR mailing, we are selecting 60,000 households
(randomly distributed across five panels) to receive phone calls, and there will be a control panel of
approximately 145,000 households. We are also attempting to observe the effect of using different
voices for these calls – two community leaders, one elected official and one civic leader, and one voice
that would likely have the same appeal anywhere in the nation. Each “voice” is assigned to 20,000
households. We secured the commitment of both Savannah Mayor Edna Jackson and top Savannah CBS
news affiliate anchor Sonny Dixon to serve as our two local voices. The first wave of calls will occur from
March 30 – April 1, and the second set from May 18 – 20.
Taking the Test
All advertising and partnership activities direct respondents to our test landing page with basic
information about the test, a link to even more information on intercensal testing activities, a map, and
a list of eligible counties. From there, respondents click a “Begin Survey” button that takes them to the
secure response application called Centurion, where they actually complete the test census. The final
page within Centurion also asks respondents to report how they heard about the test census by
checking all applicable boxes. After response submission, the respondent is taken to our exit page,
which thanks the respondent and allows them to access the social hub, videos, and shareable content.
Conclusion
Upon the completion of the 2015 Census Test in the Savannah media market, our research team will
work with both the advertising and response data to answer the research questions stated earlier.
Results will help guide the planning for additional tests in advance of the 2020 Census and will inform
early planning for the 2020 Census Integrated Communications Contract. As technology continues to
evolve we must continue to adapt our communications strategies and tactics to reach people in the
right places with the right messages to efficiently produce an accurate population count while saving