Cellular networks on the road to 5G: just more lanes or a junction?

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Cellular networks on the road to 5G: just more lanes or a junction?

Dr. Ir. Michael Peeters, CTO Wireless

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In practice, technology had 30 years of evolution and disruption

TD-LTE WCDMA HSDPA/ _HSUPA HSPA

2G 3G 4G “Agreed” disruption Smooth evolution GSM GPRS EDGE E-GPRS2 Single carrier TD-SCDMA TD-SCDMA TDMA PDC

CDMA 1X EV-DO _{rev B}

UMB EV-DV LTE-FDD FDD EV-DO rev A EV-DO rev 0 LTE-adv

Year in commercial service 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1990 2020 LTE-adv HSPA evol 5G _{5G ?} CIoT?

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3

3.9 Bn

People connected to the Internet in 2017 Increase in video traffic 2012–2017

720 %

Things connected to the Internet in 2020

10 Bn

Increase in cloud and data center traffic 2012–2017

440 %

Increase in mobile broadband speed by 2019

2.3 X

Increase in cloud computing market 2013–2017

2 X

More tablets sold in

2014 than laptops and desktop computers combined

320 M

Enterprise networking market revenue in 2017 (US $)

>50

Bn

Just more of everything?

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+ 4G/LTE addressing new markets

Internet of Things

Public Sectors

Public Safety/Defense/Govt

Fixed Wireless Access

Energy

Utilities/Oil & Gaz

Transportation

Railways/Highways/Aviation

MOBILE BB

DIVERSIFICATION

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5

9 Key use cases @NGMN

Use case family Example use case Key technical requirement

Broadband in dense

areas Pervasive video Massive spectrum on small cell pushing need for new “high” band to achieve traffic density of up to 750 Gb/s per km2 in dense urban

Broadband

everywhere 50 Mb/s everywhere Significant improvement to cell edge bitrate to offer consistent user experience at target bitrate over 95% locations for 95% of time

Ultra-low cost networks Flexible radio parameters for cost reduction when offering limited services (<10 Mb/s, >50ms, <20 Device/km2)

Higher user mobility High speed train Flexible radio parameters for speeds up to 500 km/h

Massive Internet of

Things Sensor networks Connectionless service to offer scalable solution for device densities of up to 200kDevice/km2 and extended battery life

Extreme real-time Tactile internet Flexible radio parameters for low latency down to 1 ms

Lifeline Natural disaster High availability and service recovery resilience mechanisms to ensure

availability of basic communications (voice, text, etc.) with large battery life

Ultra-reliable Public safety High reliability rates up to 99.999% (5 nines) implying need to eliminate single

points of failure from network design

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Where does 4G stumble? = 6 requirement

drivers

for 5G

BROADBAND

Massive traffic capacity

Reduce Cost

Spectrum efficiency

Access new spectrum

EXTREME DENSITY

Massive user density

User content

MISSION CRITICAL

Very low latency

High reliability

High availability

Security

INNOVATIVE

SERVICES

Flexible bearer design

3

rd

_{party policy}

BATTERY LIFE

Signaling reduction

Energy optimization

NON TRADITIONAL DEVICES

Short packet

Sporadic access

More devices and more device types

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A divergence is coming: 2 asymptotes

# of subscribers (= human or machine)

amo

unt o

f tr

af

fic/s

ub/mo

nth

2G

Mobile voice, traffic scaling proportional to number of subs.

3G

Start of mobile broadband. Usage per subscriber increasing.

4G

Mobile entertainment, total traffic driven by average data usage instead of by number of subscribers.

5G

At the same time as ultra-broadband continues to grow, the rise of M2M traffic and number of subscribers causes diverging requirements, both technical and

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5G Vision

Ultra-broadband

Offering higher bitrates

and supporting extreme

traffic densities for the

evolution of comms

and entertainment

+

5G

Serving both traditional as well as potential new applications like drones, real time video surveillance, mobile augmented and virtual reality,

=

5G = unified

ecosystem …

Ultra-narrowband

Efficient sensing and

control added to LTE

broadband; massive

densities of low traffic

devices and bearers

Consistent experience

Better bits rather than simply more cheap bits to offer a more wireline like experience

But also…

Ultra low latency

Mission critical specialized services and immersive virtual reality But also…

5G Phase 1

below 6GHz

2020 2022

5G Phase 2

+ above 20GHz

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9

Technology evolution

The broadband scenario is “clear”

2015 2017 2019 2021

LTE

LTE-A

LTE-U

5G

<6GHz mmWave

5G

triggers: marketing;

latency for augmented reality,

games; enabling massive MIMO

trigger:

last drop wire/ fiber replacement

LTE-A

evolution

LTE-A

evolution

direct path: continues to serve tradional mobile BB case.

WiFi

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Technology evolution

The broadband scenario is “clear” – is narrowband sufficiently important ?

2015 2017 2019 2021

LTE

LTE-A

LTE-U

5G

<6GHz mmWave

5G

triggers: marketing; trigger:

last drop wire/ fiber replacement

LTE-A

evolution

LTE-A

evolution

direct path: continues to serve tradional mobile BB case.

WiFi

802.11n

WiFi

802.11ac

WiFi

802.11ad

trigger: LTE control overload; low latency control & command applications

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Narrowband and IoT: key requirements

Not just sensors, but a wide spectrum

Factor

Requirements – low end

Requirements – high end

Range

Peak data

rate

<100 bits/s UL (e.g. smart

metering)

> several Mb/s UL (e.g. security cameras)

10000

Latency

>1 s (e.g. smart metering

without control)

< 10 ms (e.g. ITS Intelligent Transportation

Systems - ITS)

100 Usage

<1 event/day (e.g. intrusion

alarm)

“continuous” (e.g. security cameras)

∞

Coverage

Normal (e.g. outdoor devices)

+20 dB (e.g. indoor devices located in

basements)

100 Mobility

“none” (stationary devices)

“seamless” (e.g. ITS devices)

_∞

Device cost

“not an issue”

<4$ for e.g. smart meters

10 Battery

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Predominance of short packets, today

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Light Background: DL Packet Size Distribution

1 8 18 19 24 27 28 29 30 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Light Background: UL Packet Size Distribution

1 8 18 19 24 27 28 29 30 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Heavier Background: DL Packet Size Distribution

9 10 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 56 57 59 60 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Heavier Background: UL Packet Size Distribution

9 10 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 56 57 59 60 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Gaming: DL Packet Size Distribution 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Gaming: UL Packet Size Distribution 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Interactive Content Pull: DL Packet Size Distribution 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Packet Size (bytes)

CDF

Interactive Content Pull: UL Packet Size Distribution

47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55

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Burst profile from live LTE network in 2014

Combined uplink and downlink

100 102 104 106 108 1010 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

burst size in bytes

log(burst size(bytes)) pr oba bi lit y < a bs c is s a

dormancy timer = 2 sec dormancy timer = 5 sec

100 101 102 103 104 105 106 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 number of frames/burst log(number frames/burst) pr oba bi lit y < a bs c is s a

dormancy timer = 2 sec dormancy timer = 5 sec

BURST SIZE

NUMBER OF PACKETS PER BURST

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So: Why do we need a new & unified 5G radio interface?

• When we talk about M2M subscribers, these are not just devices. Applications on

smartphones are already generating a large amount (30%) of short bursty traffic. Similarly

M2M gateways using cellular uplink will contribute to the total amount of narrowband

traffic. M2M subscribers = # devices

×

# applications/device

Ultra-broadband already acts as a channel for part of the ultra-narrowband traffic.

• The ultrabroadband track will require the integration of many different networks.

In order to steer traffic quickly, seamlessly, without impacting the end-user, an

efficient control system need to be present.

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Key 5G Technologies

vRAN

Radios

vEPC

vIMS

mm Wave Massive MIMO New radio I/F Policy Conn- less SDN Consistent

experience Ultra low latency

Ultra-narrowband

Small Cells

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5G Radio: UF-OFDM

• Designed to meet new requirements

-  Contention based access for connection-less

services

-  In-band optimization to devices and services

-  Higher capacity

• Universal Filtered OFDM (UF-OFDM)

-  New filter stage applied per sub-band

-  Cyclic prefix replaced by filter time response

-  More tolerant to power and timing errors

-  Reduced guard band requirements

-  May re-apply huge knowledge base of LTE

processing

[1] F. Schaich, T. Wild, Y. Chen, “Waveform contenders for 5G - suitability for short packet and low latency transmissions” , VTC’14

Filter added to OFDM

-30 -20 -10 0 l. po we r [ dB ]

UF-OFDM

CP-OFDM

Several tens of dB improved

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5G Radio: Two new radio interfaces plus LTE and WLAN

5G

Driver

LTE Evolution

WLAN

Low band

(< 6 GHz)

High band

(>20 GHz)

Ultra

broadband

MIMO, HetNet and

CoMP features

Multi-RAT and Boost Higher spectrum

efficiency

Peak bitrates

Massive capacity

Consistent

experience

Capacity

Contention access

Massive capacity

Ultra low

latency

Short packet

Low latency

Scheduled low

latency service

Ultra

narrowband

MTC features (to

bridge gap until 5G)

Short range access

Contention access

Role

LTE coverage

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Deployment Scenario

4G

2/3G

5G

<6GHz Legacy

5G

<6GHz 4G 4G WLAN

5G <6GHz

1.  LTE with carrier aggregation and

dual-connectivity to small cell layer

2.  New 5G carrier on macro layer: Wide

area coverage for new services, improved efficiency and control

3.  Coverage extended on small cell

4.  Massive capacity: Additional 5G

carriers above 20 GHz on small cells

5.  Additional 5G carriers in cellular

bands on macro and small cells

5G

>20GHz

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NGMN: http://www.ngmn.org/work-programme/5g-initiative.html

GSMA: https://gsmaintelligence.com/research/?file=141208-5g.pdf&download

ITU-R IMT-2020: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Pages/default.aspx 3GPP: http://www.3gpp.org

5G-PPP: http://5g-ppp.eu

Cellular networks on the road to 5G: just more lanes or a junction?

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