Market Recap
It was almost a black Thursday kind of feel on the Dalal Street in today’s session. Although the benchmark indices maintained their losing streak for the fourth consecutive session but today was more terrible for the traders and investors. The NIFTY spot collapsed almost 250 points from yesterday’s low and closed below the 7000 mark. It’s a straight 1000 points correction since January 01, 2016 in NIFTY. Meanwhile, the BSE SENSEX plunged more than 800 points to close below the 23000 mark. In line with our view on the markets even the NIFTY BANK corrected more than 600 points to sneak below the 14000 level. The mayhem was mainly on the back of concerns over global slowdown, crude oil close to 12-year lows and domestic banks reporting rising bad debts, higher provisioning and dramatic falls in quarterly profit.
•On the global front, European indices like FTSE (-2.37%), CAC (-3.42%) and DAX (-2.51%) were trading with heavy loss while the time the report was made.
•The Asian Indices like NIKKIE (closed), HANGSENG (-4.00%) and SHANGHAI (closed) ended with heavy loss in the absence of the SHANGHAI index which is shut due to Lunar New Year.
•On the sectoral front, initially the PSU BANKS stocks tried to remain in positive terrain but eventually all the sectoral indices closed deep in red.
•From the list of losers, NIFTY REALTY (-6.04%) stocks & NIFTY METAL (-4.39%) stocks were the biggest laggards. •The broader markets too corrected sharply as the MIDCAP (-5.72%) and SMALLCAP (-5.41%) indices closed with significant loss.
•In the money market, all of the currency pairs turned green indicating severe pressure in the INR.
On the stock front, our recommended pick Tata Global slumped 6.93% after consolidated net profit fell 29.78%. On the other hand, stocks like JETAIRWAYS, UNITECH, VOLTAS etc. closed with a loss of more than 10%.
Key Market Data Points
Name High Low Range Close Prev. Close
Sensex 23758 22909 849 22952 23759
Nifty Spot 7209 6960 249 6976 7216
Nifty Future 7215 6970 245 6993 7247
VIX 26.87 22.11 4.76 25.97 22.47
INDEX PULLERS & DRAGGERS
Sentiment Indicators
Name Close Prev.
Day Change Prm/Disc 17.1 30.85 -13.75 PCR (OI) 0.79 0.82 -0.03 PCR (Vol) 0.79 0.80 -0.01 Draggers CMP Price % Change Weightage % OI Change TCS 2203.15 (3.47) -39.24 1.02 Tata Mot 277.10 (5.25) -30.78 1.36 HUL 805.70 (2.76) -29.93 0.30 Pullers CMP Price % Change Weightage % OI Change Cipla 543.10 0.52 0.34 (4.02) Bharti Airtel 306.80 (1.08) 0.00 3.05 IDEA 100.45 0.75 0.00 (3.80)
SECTORAL
ANALYSIS
Highest Performer Price % Change Prev. % Change Lowest performer Price % Change Prev. % ChangeCNXPHRM Index -2.23 -1.77 CNXREAL Index -6.04 -3.62
CNXMNC Index -2.7 -0.72 CNXSMCP Index -5.41 -2.42
CNXIT Index -2.71 -0.13 CNXMET Index -4.39 -0.6
Key Takeaways
Today also advancing counters have tumbled while declining stocks risen. Therefore overall market breadth remained weak.
Today all indices were in red, amongst them Realty & Metal index recorded new all time low. On the other hand Bank NIfty is at crucial support.
During the second half we witnessed that, all sectors were in red lead by PSU Bank -3.99%, Realty -3.73 & Midcap 50 -3.43% indices displayed feebleness.
**(the above mentioned % change are just for second half i.e. after 1PM)
On the F&O stocks front stocks like, UPL 1.87%, Godrej CP 1.79% & Exide 1.67% outperformed the markets. On the other hand, Unitech -13.54%, GMR Infra -11.34% & Wockhardt Pharma -10.86% went through some correction.
**(the above mentioned % change are just for second half i.e. after 1PM)
Key Takeaways
The Nifty February Fut. closed at 6993.45, with a premium of 17.1 against premium of 26.85 points.
The open interest increased by 6.96% with a fall in price, indicating short build-up. The total volumes in futures & options is
positioned at 71.57 Lakh contracts with a turnover of Rs. 3,65,713 cr., with an ascent of 15%.
Today VIX closed at 25.97 levels, up by 16%. Finally VIX registered breakout from 23.6 level, indicating further weakness in the market.
OPEN INTEREST
MARKET BREADTH
NSE Today % Change
Advance 121 -59.53% Declines 1480 16.08% A/D Ratio 0.08 -65.14% 5100 5600 6100 6600 7100 7600 8100 ,0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1/12 1/14 1/18 1/20 1/22 1/27 1/29 2/2 2/4 2/8 2/10 (`000) Openinterest Nifty
On the option front highest call base for the Feb series is at 7500 strike with 65.37 Lakh shares. On the other hand highest PUT base is at shifted to 7000 strikes with 52.46 Lakh shares.
Long Build Up:- Rise in Price & Rise in OI Short Build Up:- Fall in Price & Rise in OI
Liquidation:- Fall in Price & Fall in OI Short Covering:- Rise in Price & Fall in OI Company Close Price %
Change OI
% OI Change CIPLA 543.1 0.52 8,452,000 -4.02
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Long Build-Up
Short Build-Up
Company Close Price %
Change OI % OI Change VOLTAS 233.15 -13.71 4,361,600 30.81 PTC 58.00 -7.13 8,664,000 8.95 BANKINDIA 82 -7.41 23,733,000 7.14 NIFTY 6993.45 -3.49 22,217,325 6.96
Company Close Price %
Change OI % OI Change IDEA 100.45 0.75 49,887,000 -3.80 INFRATEL 357.1 0.45 2,862,600 -1.30 COLPAL 822.85 -2.16 2,070,000 0.36
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Company Close Price %
Change OI % OI Change ACC 1231.5 -2.75 4,447,875 -18.88 TORNTPHARM 1266.75 -2.83 470,000 -12.05 BATAINDIA 480.4 -1.07 2,645,000 -11.54 AMBUJACEM 192.5 -1.03 7,312,200 -11.15
Liquidation
NIFTY OPTION OPEN INTEREST
Short Covering
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 68 00 68 50 69 00 69 50 70 00 70 50 71 00 71 50 72 00 72 50 73 00 73 50 74 00 74 50 75 00 75 50 76 00 76 50 77 00 77 50 78 00 78 50 79 00 79 50 80 00 CE PEF&O Price Gainers & Losers
News Updates
Sensex crashes 807 points; Nifty tanks 239 points as slowdown fears hammer markets worldwide. European shares knocked back by banks and miners.
SBI net profit down 61% in Q3, gross NPA cross 5%. Tata Motors slumps after declaring poor Q3 result.
United Bank of India slumps after reporting dismal Q3 results. Bank of India slumps after reverse turnaround in Q3.
Company Close Price %
Change OI % OI Change IDEA 100.45 0.75 49,887,000 -3.80 CIPLA 543.1 0.52 8,452,000 -4.02 INFRATEL 357.1 0.45 2,862,600 -1.30 DIVISLAB 1020.2 -0.18 2,456,400 -3.05
Company Close Price %
Change OI % OI Change UNITECH 4.10 -16.33 240,779,000 0.81 VOLTAS 233.15 -13.71 4,361,600 30.81 GMRINFRA 10.55 -12.45 231,192,000 0.14 TATAGLOBAL 105.3 -11.33 24,180,000 0.72
Stocks In Action
Stock View CMP TGT Rationale
Zee Limited Bearish 369 325
• Zee Limited has broken down from a range it had been trading for a while.
• Range had been 440 on the upside & 374 on the downside. Breakdown from the range suggest fresh downside for the stock as it shifts into a new lower range.
• Stock is trading below all its key moving averages including 200 Ema .
• Stock is likely to target 325 zone on the downside.
• Short sell stock at cmp & on pullbacks towards 385-390 with a SL of 406. TGT 325.
CONCLUSION
In the end Nifty registered breakdown from downward sloping channel and closed below psychological level of 7000. In line with our view, price accelerated downward momentum on the breakout of 23.60 levels in ‘India VIX’, up by 16%. Indicating some more pain left in the markets. Even Nifty failed to respect 50% retracement level placed around 7120 & also filled the positive GAP witnessed on 13th May 2014 placed in the range of 7070 – 7030 levels. Again there was no improvement in market breadth. The next support for the Nifty is placed at 6900 – 6820 range. Nifty has plunged more than 500 points (almost 7%) in last four sessions, which lead momentum indicators to trade in oversold zone. Therefore pullback from lower level cannot be ruled out. On the upside resistance for the NIFTY is placed at 7070 – 7120 levels. Even Bank Nifty filled the positive GAP witnessed on 13th May 2014. Going forward Bank Nifty has crucial support of upward sloping long term trend line placed around 13800 levels. On the flipside resistance is plead at 14270 /14450 levels.
Today FII’s sold 1113 Cr. while DII’s bought 1222 cr. in equity market. On the F&O front FII’s were net buyer, they
bought 415 cr. in the Index Futures segment & 574 Cr. in Index Option, with a rise in open interest. Meanwhile they sold 265 cr. in the Stock Futures. On the derivative front, activity was seen in 7600 CALL to 7200 CALL, while on the PUT side activity was seen in 7000 -- 6800 PUT. The 7200 strike Call added 20.54 lakh shares respectively; whereas 7000, 6800 & 6700 PUT added 6.93, 6.36 & 6.38 lakh shares in open interest. On the flipside unwinding was seen in 7700, 7800 CALL & 7200, 7300 PUT.
With today’s nosedive of 240 points, index closed below psychological mark of 7000. The implication of today’s breakdown advocates unpleasant consequences for the market. The broader view of the market remains weak. Never the less, traders should note that index has fallen almost 7% in four days, which lead indicators to trade in oversold zone. Hence bounce back from lower levels cannot be ruled out. Both the targets met on our short call of NIFTY & Bank Nifty, whereas stop got triggered on the straddle strategy.
Forthcoming Results
ADANIPORTS JBFIND SUNTV OMNITECH
ADANIPOWER KOLTEPATIL SUVEN OMNITEX
ANANTRAJ LUMAXAUTO VALECHAENG PROVOGE
APOLLOHOSP MARKSANS HINDPETRO PUNJLLOYD
BPCL MAXWELL HMT ROLTA
CAMLINFIN MRPL IDBI SKFINDIA
CANBK MTNL IFCI SPICEMOBI
CORPBANK NESTLEIND IFSL SUNPHARMA
GODREJIND NMDC INDIANVSH INDUSFIN
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