47 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS
WORKSHOP 6:
ROADMAP TO 100 G CO
2/KM WELL-TO-WHEEL
PANELISTS:
• Neville JACKSON, Ricardo, Chief Technology and Innovation offi cer • Andre DOUAUD, Automobile & Energy consulting
• Joël FOUCARD, Michelin
• Jean-Jacques CARRE, GKN driveline Electric/Hybrid development, Director of Advanced Engineering, control products, vehicle integration GKN Automotive & GKN plc
• Kristen de la ROSA, Argonne National Laboratory (US), Dir of Adv Veh Tech Competition (US Argonne Nat Lab)
• Jean DELSEY, INRETS Research Director
• Petr DOLEJSI, ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association), Director Mobility and Sustainable Transport
• Paul EVERITT, SMMT, Chief Executive Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
• Michel FORISSIER, Valeo, Marketing, Research and Development Director for Valeo Powertrain Systems
• Hans-Georg FRISCHKORN, VDA, Vice-President • Peter GEBHARD, Audi, Head of Vehicle Physics, AUDI AG • Philip GOTT, IHS, Managing Director IHS Automotive • Gautam KALGHATGI, ARAMCO, Senior Scientist
• Nicolas LEBIGOT, CCFA, Manager Environmental and Technical Affairs • Nicholas LEE, PSA Group London Offi ce Director
• Karl-Heinz ZIEROCK, BMU (German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature protection and nuclear safety)
The brief for this workshop was to defi ne the macro scenarios which would help to reach an average of 100 g CO2/km
well-to-wheel for new vehicles, in the best economic and technical conditions. This could include the combination and optimization of the ICE/gasoline system, hybridization, resorting to electric motorization and the introduction of non-fossil fuels such as biofuels, natural gas or other low carbon alternatives.
More specifi cally, how close are car makers to meeting 2012 target in Europe (130 g CO2/km tank-to-wheel)?, how will they
achieve the next target of 95 g CO2/km (tank-to-wheel) by
2020?, how and when can we achieve 60 g CO2/km
(tank-to-wheel)?
The workshop addressed this brief via some structured sessions that explored:
• The view from the regulators and policymakers
• The view from the automotive industry
• Future consumer requirements and vehicle characteristics
• The potential for future technologies
• Outlook and key messages
REGULATION & POLICY
Many governments view both the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and energy security as high priority policies. Some have even targeted carbon emissions reduction in legally binding legislation. From a regulatory perspective, it is clear that there is increasing pressure in all major markets to address CO2 emissions. This has generally been specifi ed as fl eet average tailpipe CO2 emissions or fuel economy based on new vehicle sales and on a tank-to-wheel basis.
49 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS The target for Europe is second only to Japan in terms of
fl eet average emissions. One of the key issues that emerge from this type of analysis is that there are a range of different processes and drive cycles to quantify fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This can drive the need for different
approaches or different technologies dependent on specifi c regulations. There is clear recognition that more needs to be done to ensure that drive cycle fuel economy is more closely aligned to “real world” consumer experiences. A more consistent global approach with common processes and standards would enable economies of scale and enable more competitive low carbon products to be introduced to market. There are also concerns that changes of government with different views and priorities leads to instability and makes long term forward planning very diffi cult. Specifi c examples include the differing priorities for energy security against lower carbon emissions, the trade off between vehicle weight reduction and safety and the need to defi ne measures that address well-to-wheel rather than tank-to-wheel carbon emissions sooner rather than later. Future transport energy is a critical area of government policy as it directly relates to carbon reduction strategies. It is important that governments work towards integrated energy policies. This is specifi cally relevant to the delivery of increased vehicle electrifi cation, where energy for transport is provided by the electricity grid. Both federal and local governments see electrifi cation of transport as a major focus area and are providing public funding for a range of measures including vehicle subsidies, targeted R&D, charging infrastructure and other non fi scal incentives to encourage purchase and preferential use of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY VIEW
Whilst it is clear that the automotive industry is committed to the need for sustainable and lower carbon transport, it is also very much focused on the need to ensure that the rate at which carbon emissions are reduced is balanced with industrial capability and economics. Substantial reductions in fl eet average fuel consumption have been delivered by the automotive industry with a 22% reduction in fl eet average CO2 since 1995 despite increases in vehicle weight
to improve safety and improvements in vehicle function and performance. The automotive industry represents 10.2% of EU manufacturing employment including 3.5 million direct and 9.1 million indirect jobs. The automotive industry in Europe produces the largest private sector investment in R&D at 26 billion/year and generates 427 billion of tax revenues. To ensure that the European automotive industry remains internationally competitive, it is important that regulation remains in balance globally with competing nations and produces products that consumers want to purchase. The automotive industry is very supportive of public/ private partnerships between industry and government to help achieve this balance. There is also a need to develop integrated industrial and government policies that balance regulation with fi scal incentives, consumer information and education, public support for R&D and public sector procurement.
Whilst the industry also sees electrifi cation as an important contribution to future reductions in carbon emissions, this is seen as only one measure or technology critical to future carbon reduction targets. The general consensus from the automotive community is that there will need to be a breakthrough on battery technology, particularly cost per unit energy stored, to enable battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to progress from a niche market supported by subsidies to a competitive unsubsidized mass market product. This is thought to be possible but is likely to take some time and during this period, it is important to address a range of other technologies that will be critical in reaching targets in the 2020 to 2030 timeframe.
FUTURE VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS
Whilst there are likely to be differences in product mix and specifi c technologies, there is general consensus within the automotive community on the probable introduction and timing of new passenger car technologies to reduce carbon emissions. An example from the UK is shown below. This shows that innovations in IC based powertrains will be vital in supporting the transition to hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Reductions in vehicle weight and drag reduction are also necessary. In the longer term, there may be potential to introduce fuel cell based vehicles if challenges in on-board hydrogen storage and supply can be overcome.
It is also clear that the investment required to bring these technologies to market in the timeframe required to meet new regulations is probably more than the automotive community
can afford on its own. It is therefore important that future technologies introduced to the mass market utilize as much existing manufacturing assets and infrastructure as possible. It is also important that future vehicles meet the requirements and aspirations of consumers. Increasing urbanization, an ageing population, car sharing and changes in consumer mobility preferences such as “car sharing” will all be key factors that will infl uence future vehicle characteristics. There is also a clear preference from industry that future fuel effi ciency or CO2 regulations are technology neutral and are
based on good science and analysis. An example would be the need to move towards well-to-wheel CO2 emissions to include
fuel or energy conversions in the supply chain. In future, a move towards life cycle CO2 emissions including materials
preparation, manufacture, in service use and disposal/ recycling should allow better long term decisions to be made.
51 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS To achieve substantial further reductions to 60 g/km fl eet
average emissions will require a transformation in the market to clean or low carbon energy. Scenario analysis by IHS to look at a range of future technologies and energy combinations
shows that 60 g/km well-to-wheel is possible but needs a transition to hybrid and plug-in hybrid technology that can make use of low carbon biofuels and electricity.
FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
& BENEFITS
The demand for new fuel effi ciency and/or low carbon technologies has been a major driver for the automotive technology suppliers. A broad range of new technologies are now available that were only ideas only a few years ago. These range from weight saving and low loss technologies in driveline and new lightweight designs and materials for vehicle components through to more effi cient and less costly electric motors and power electronics to drive them.
The challenge for the technology suppliers is to reduce the cost of these technologies to a level where they are attractive to the vehicle manufacturers and ultimately, consumers. Many of the electrifi cation technologies are still too expensive to be considered as mainstream technologies without fi scal incentives. However, electrifi cation of the powertrain has an evolutionary path ranging from micro hybrid or regenerative charging systems coupled to effi cient combustion engines to full electric drivelines. Progress is being made to reduce costs but this is probably the limiting factor for market penetration.
53 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS The most cost effective technologies to improve fuel
effi ciency at present are associated with more conventional combustion engines. These include downsizing to reduce the swept volume of the engine to reduce friction and other losses whilst boosting the engine to maintain or even improve
performance. However, there are also a range of other technologies that deliver incremental improvements at either component or system level that enable future products to consistently reduce CO2 emissions without compromise
in customer expectations or utility.
The current view is that the limit for cost effi ciency for mass market vehicles is around 40 Euros/gram CO2. Technologies that cost more than this will only be introduced if they can provide additional customer benefi ts or as a more limited niche vehicle that supports development of “brand identities”. The premium vehicle market offers more opportunities for the introduction of new technologies but by defi nition has less impact on fl eet average CO2 emissions.
OUTLOOK AND KEY MESSAGES
Stable long term regulation is vital in achieving future targets but should be globally harmonized, technology neutral and address energy production and use
• Regulation is a vital requirement to achieve signifi cant reductions in CO2
• CO2 is a global issue and we need international
harmonization of regulations/drive cycles to deliver effi cient and competitive solutions (economies of scale)
• Regulations should be technology neutral – Industry should be able to explore and deliver the best technical solutions
• Industry requires internationally stable and consistent
regulations with long-term direction and realistic targets
• Future CO2 targets should be based on energy production as well as use and should involve all stakeholders in the energy chain
Low carbon vehicles must be affordable in the long term but need initial consumer incentives supported by co-ordinated information programs. Finance is also needed for R&D and new fuelling infrastructures
• Affordability is the key barrier to mass market penetration of low carbon technologies
• Initial market can be supported by fi scal incentives and other benefi ts such as preferential parking, use of bus lanes etc.
• Longer term, it is essential that low carbon products meet consumer demands at a competitive price without intervention
• We need an integrated approach combining incentives with consumer “education” and information on the benefi ts of effi cient, low carbon vehicles
• Fiscal policy should include support for R&D and new infrastructure requirements in addition to vehicle subsidies
55 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS Improvements in vehicle effi ciency and some degree
of electrifi cation will be required to achieve 100 g/km well-to-wheel. This will also require low carbon electricity and some use of biofuels. Energy security may drive different technologies in some markets
• The target of 100 g/km CO2 well-to-wheel will require incremental improvements in vehicle effi ciency addressing combustion engine improvements and fuel reformulation, weight reduction, aerodynamic performance and rolling resistance
• The expert group believes that the 100 g/km target for new vehicles will not be met without some degree of electrifi cation
• Grid connected vehicles will require low carbon electricity
• It is possible that we will also require low carbon gaseous and liquid fuels such as biofuels to meet future targets
• The confl ict between low carbon energy and energy security could lead to variations in vehicle technologies dependent on Government policies.
Number one in the international oil and gas business, Total Group also plays a key role in the chemicals industry. At Challenge Bibendum 2011 in Berlin, Total brought to bear the various facets of its commitment to mobility issues.
At the Exhibition Center hosting Challenge Bibendum 2011 in Berlin, the chemicals operation of Total Group presented its latest car-related innovations. In fact, issues of lightweight construction and respect for the environment are gaining importance across the automotive sector and remain a key focus of Total Group’s chemicals subsidiaries such as Atotech, Bostik, Hutchinson and Total Petrochemicals.
TOTAL EXCELLIUM - the name for the range of new generation fuels used by the vehicles participating in the
eleventh Challenge Bibendum. Energy effi ciency and CO2
emissions were also measured. «Challenge Bibendum has become an important platform in the fi eld of sustainable development and future mobility. That’s another reason for us to demonstrate that traditional fuels will continue to play a key role in tomorrow’s mobility», said Hans-Christian Gützkow, director of TOTAL Germany. Attending from Paris, Jean-François Minster, Director of Research at Total, addressed a public debate at the event’s Strategic Day. Subject of workshop: «Energy and Transport». Minster described the multiple prospective activities of the Group in this fi eld, ranging from innovations in lubricants and fuels to more energy
effi cient lightweight materials for vehicles and alternative energy sources such as hydrogen for propulsion and traction systems. Total operates two hydrogen stations in Berlin and is due to open another two. In this context, Total will produce wind-powered «green» hydrogen at «the service station of the future» for the future Berlin-Schönefeld airport as part of a pilot project run with a partner company. This ecological hydrogen will subsequently be available to customers coming to ‘fi ll up» their fuel cell vehicles at dedicated charging stations in Berlin.
Total not only participated in the exhibition and expert debates; it also put up an entire mobile service station alongside the Challenge Bibendum 2011 test track in front of the historic hangar of Berlin Tempelhof airport. The vehicles taking part in the rallies were thus refuelled with diesel or TOTAL EXCELLIUM petrol.
TOTAL EXCELLIUM is the name for a range of fuels combining several advantages: better engine protection, lower consumption and a reduction in polluting emissions. Not to mention their highly developed engine cleaning properties that help to keep engine parts clean and reduce clogging. Dedicated additives help reduce friction between sensitive parts, thereby enhancing engine effi ciency. This results in a decrease in fuel consumption and polluting emissions.
For further information on the TOTAL EXCELLIUM range of fuels, please look up www.total-excellium.de.
