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PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SYSTEM

FOR TECHNICAL STATE ASSESSMENT

OF HYDRAULIC UNIT

Webinar: «Hydropower of Latin America: implementation of HPPs construction and modernization projects»

August 26th, 2020

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PROBLEMS OF ENERGY EQUIPMENT

1. Design lifetime is over

2. Off-design operation mode

3. Increased repair and maintenance costs

by report data: E. Parkinson. Advanced technologies of works on repair and restoration of objects in hydropower // Conference "Hydropower. Hydraulic engineering. New developments and technologies". Reports and speeches. St. Petersburg, Publishing house " VNIIG them. B. E. Vedeneeva". 2017. Pp. 95-104 by report data: Bogush B. “About modernization of equipment and introduction of modern information technologies to ensure energy security and energy efficiency of HPP and HAPP operation // Energy efficiency and energy security of hydropower facilities in the context of

modernization and digital transformation. Rusenergyweek-2019

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EQUIPMENT FAILURES

D. Frunzăverdel, S. Muntean, G. Mărginean, V. Câmpiani, L.

Marşavina, R. Terzi, V. Şerban. Failure analysis of a Francis turbine

runner // IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2010.

Vol. 12. P. 012115.

Egusquiza E., Valero C., Xingxing H., Jou E., Guardo A.,

Rodriguez C. Failure investigation of a large pump-turbine

runner // Engineering Failure Analysis 23 (2012), p. 27-34

Existing solutions DO NOT PREVENT accidents and damage!

Nennemann B., Monette C., Chamberland-Lauzon J.: Hydrodynamic

damping and stiffness prediction in Francis turbine runners using CFD.

IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 49(7), 072006

(2016), doi:10.1088/1755-1315/49/7/072006.

в) L70

б) L9

а) L2

г) L88

з) L125

е) L94

ж) L123

д) L91

Рис. 1.1 – Примеры трещин в РО РК

Liu X., Luo Y., Wang Z. A review on fatigue damage mechanism

in hydroturbines // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

54 (2016). P. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.025

https://bigpicture.ru/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/s32_2026.jpg

д) разрушение штока механизма разворота

лопастей [L8]

е) разрушение болтов крышки насос-турбины

[L3]

Рис. 1.1 –

Ресурсные отказы элементов гидротурбин

Liu X., Luo Y.Y., Wang Z.W. Fatigue Analysis of the Piston Rod in a Kaplan Turbine

Based on Crack Propagation under Unsteady Hydraulic Loads // IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2014. Vol. 22. № 1. Pp. 12017-12026(10).

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WHY INDIVIDUAL LIFETIME?

Stresses for two similar units at the same HPP (МРа)

Similar units installed near to each other at the same HPP

have sufficient differences in the stress states.

Main reasons are:

• deviations from the drawings during the manufacture

• deviations from the drawings during installation

• deviations from the welding technology

• numerous repairs

Only an INDIVIDUAL lifetime assessment can guarantee reliability and safety!

Dynamic stress

Static stress

The lifetime of Francis hydraulic turbine primarily depends

on stresses at runner’s blades.

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FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY

5

Fast and

efficient

Digital image

Individual module

(digital model)

Exhausted lifetime

3D sсan

Residual lifetime

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OUR SOLUTION

COMPETITIVE BENEFITS:

• The forecast system for the technical condition and equipment

repairs

• The forecast of the "revenue/costs" ratio for different scenarios

• Account of individual unit features

• Money-saving due to transition from scheduled to condition-based

maintenance

• Does not require much computer performance

• Does not require high qualification of Customer staff

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RESULTS

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RESULTS

Module of predicting parameters for operating modes

Peak mode Base mode

Forecast of operating time for

prolongation period until the next

overhaul (7 years)

Power

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

zone 1

(low-efficiency zone)

speed-no-load

3 500

500

up to 40 MW

5 000

3 000

60-80 MW

1 300

600

zone 2 (forbidden

for long-term operation)

120-130 MW

50

7

zone 3

(optimal zone)

130-140 MW

120

40

140-160 MW

160

60

160-180 MW

500

300

180-220 MW

1 600

723

220-240 MW

22 000

20 000

120-130 MW

3 000

12 000

Number of start/stop

1 500

200

Module for predicting lifetime

Total operating time for the prognostic period, hours

37 230

37 230

Average operating time per year for the prognostic period,

hours

5 319

5 319

Average number of startup and shutdown per year for the

prognostic period, pc.

214

29

Forecast of the exhausted lifetime until the next overhaul

97,9%

94,9%

Residual lifetime, years

10,3

32,9

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CONSUMER BENEFITS

• Detection of non-optimal operating modes

• Development of long-term forecast for equipment

technical condition

• Early prediction of hidden defects in equipment

• Planning repairs in advance

• Lifetime management for the units due to

combinations of operating modes

You will win MUCH TIME and

MUCH MONEY if you use

predictive analytics as an addition

to standard diagnostics technology!

Residual life and crack length

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MORE INFORMATION

Demo Version - http://bi.vdi-service.ru:443/

Promotional video

Page on-site “Innovations in hydropower and hydraulic engineering”,

by Emanuele Quaranta (JRC EC)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qil19QDBy4ixsMNLMZk6eL1WyzBC7s2v/view?usp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SBkDVPkkVmIO6dzkebOAwnRD_WRM_FPv/view?usp=sharing

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Our contact: +7(812) 812 942-6036 ,

+7(931) 100-1384

www.cdti.ru

e-mail: [email protected], [email protected],

[email protected]

NIKOLAY V.GEORGIEVSKY, CEO, PhD

mob.: +7 (921) 923-73-77

References

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