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The potential of radar based ensemble forecasts for flash flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

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Figure

Fig. 1. Lago Maggiore region, southern Switzerland, with testcatchments, meteorological and hydrological stations and weatherradar used in this study
Fig. 2. Procedure to build the ensembles REAL and NORA. For theREAL ensemble, the current radar QPE is perturbed by a perturba-tion field 25 times to build an ensemble of 25 members
Table 1. COSMO-2 forecasts connected to discharge nowcastsforced by REAL, deterministic radar QPE (RAD) and interpolatedrain-gauge data (PLU)
Fig. 3. NORA and REAL-C2 discharge ensemble for the Verzasca River for all 40 events in the study period
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