Ethiopian Road Sector Development Program

(1)

Performance Monitoring System

Of the

Ethiopian Road Sector

Development Program

(June 14, 2004)

(2)

RSDP MONITORING INDICATORS

Structure of presentation

1)

Background

2)

Brief Definition of the Indicator

3)

Data Collection

4)

Trends of Indices and Ratios (Findings)

5)

Conclusions

(3)

Road Sector Development Program

b

Time Period: 1997

-

2007

b

Investment Size: 3 billion USD

b

Financiers: WB, EU, ADB, OPEC, BADEA, NDF,

UK, Germany, Japan, Italy, Sweden, DCI, SDF,

RF, GOE.

(4)

Institutional Arrangement

b

Ethiopian Roads Authority

-

established in

1951, responsible for federal roads of about

16,000 km

b

8 Regional Road Authorities

–

responsible

for rural roads of about 17,000 km

(5)

I

Background

1.2

A Procedure For updating Established

1.1

Monitoring System Introduced in 1997

1.3

A Total of 15 Indicators Identified and Four More

included later on

1.4

The Usefulness of the Indicators

♠

To serve as check on the viability of objectives, institutional

requirements and risk containment

♠

To Enable “Quick Tracking”

♠

To clarify purpose and guide design

♠

To determine how outputs meet expectations

(6)

Brief Description of the

Indicators

2.1

Benefit Indicators

♠

Road Density

♠

Traffic flow

♠

Roughness and road condition

♠

Vehicle Operating Costs

♠

Freight and Passenger Tariffs

♠

Fatalities and Accidents

♠

Journey Time

♠

Employment for Local Labor

(7)

Brief Description of the

Indicators

2.2

Sustainability Indicators

♠

Maintenance Budget and Expenditure

♠

Kilometers Maintained (Routine)

♠

Maintenance Cost / Cost of Maintaining Network Ratio

♠

Time for Payments to Consultants and Contractors

♠

Time for Contract Administration

♠

Private / Total Construction ratio

♠

Labour-Based / Total Construction Ratio

♠

Actual Axle Load / Legal Limit Ratio

♠

Construction, Rehabilitation and Maintenance Costs

(8)

DATA COLLECTION

(SOURCES

(SOURCES)

ROAD

DENSITY

TRAFFIC FLOW

ROUGHNESS + ROADS CONDITION

Vehicle Operating Cost

Vehicle Operating Cost -

-

Unit Prices -

Unit Prices

-

Vehicle Utilization

ERA + REGIONS

ERA

Visual Inspection (Sample

Paved & Gravel Roads)

Vehicle Dealers, Vehicle Maintenance Workshops, Transport

Companies, Fuel Stations, Retail Establishments, CSA.

(9)

DATA COLLECTION

(SOURCES

(SOURCES)

Con’t

Freight Rates & Passenger Fares

Fatalities & Accidents

Journey Time

Employment for Local

Labour

Transport Companies

Federal / AA Traffic Police

Travel Time Survey

Local + International Contractors

Income for Local

Labour

As above

Skill Upgrading (Training)

(10)

DATA COLLECTION

(SOURCES

(SOURCES)

Con’t

Maintenance Budget and Expenditure

Time for Payment to Cons. &

cont.

Kms. Maintained

Time for contract Administration

ERA/Road Fund

ERA

ERA/Road Fund/Regions

ERA

Contract Work

Regions

Labour

Based Works

ERA

Axle Load

(11)

Broad Description of Index/Ratio

1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01

2001/02

1. Road Density

Index A (Index Per 1000km2)

21.7

22.8 23.7

24.4

27.0

27.7

30.3

Index B (Index Per 1000 in capita)

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.50

0.53

2. Traffic Flow

Total Adjusted Vehicle km.

90.8

100 100.9 105.6 115.3

115.4

106.7

3. Roughness and road Condition

Roughness Index

* Paved Roads

100

--

110.8

--

108.94 117.0

94.06

79.41

* Gravel Roads

100

--

102.5

--

101.71 125.5

100.0

97.34

Road Condition (%)

* Paved Roads ("good")

23

--

22

--

22

19

43

59

* Paved Roads ("fair")

21

--

23

--

22

12

13

9

* Paved Roads ("poor")

56

--

55

--

56

69

44

32

* Gravel Roads ("good")

18

--

20

--

22

2

15

19

* Gravel Roads ("fair")

32

--

30

--

27

20

19

35

* Gravel Roads ("poor")

50

--

50

--

51

78

66

46

Trend of Index/Ratio

Over view of Trend Indicators

(12)

4. Vehicle Operation Costs (VOC) VOC Index -- 100 111.7 111.8 148.5 139.77 144.27

VOC Saving km

* Paved -- 100 -- 89.8 84.0 68.8 84 * Gravel -- 100 -- 89.3 76.0 68.9 82 5. Freight & Passenger Tariffs Unit Price Index

Trunk Roads * Passenger -- 100 100 100 135.6 156.3 156.3 * Freight -- 100 130.34 130.34 114.3 63.7 85.4 Regional Roads * Passenger -- 100 100 100 97.8 93.9 93.9 * Freight -- 100 492 492 442 162.4 210 6. Accident Data Ratio A. Fatalities/ Total Accident 0.23 0.198 0.185 0.274 0.196 0.198 Ratio B. Fatilities/1000vehicles 21.4 17.77 16.46 11.58 13.21 13.45 Accident/1000 vehicle km 92.5 89.89 88.72 47 67.45 68.02 Ratio C. Fatialities/1000 vehicles km. 0.52 0.45 0.41 0.28 0.35 0.38 Accident/1000 vehicle km 2.26 2.30 2.21 1.15 1.77 1.91 7. Maintenance Buudget and ExpenditureRatio A. Maintenance budget/Total budget 0.155 0.159 0.127 0.108 0.146 0.097 0.15 Index B. Actual Maintenance budget 146 100 219.44 205.28 236.25 209.45 288.7 Ratio C. Actual Maintenance

expenditure/maintenance budget 0.994 0.603 0.993 0.767 0.878 0.807 0.712 8. Km roads under routine roads

maintenance (km maintained)

Ratio for Federal Roads 72.6 -- 100 92.5 99.2 95.4 92.4 91.7 Ratio for Regional Roads 68.4 -- 100 -- 141.8 156.9 157.1 54.8

Broad Description of Index/Ratio 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 Trend of Index/Ratio

Over view of Trend Indicators

(13)

9. Maintenance Budget & expenditures compared to Maintenance Need (routine)

Ratio A. Actual Maint. Budget/theoretical

cost maintenance 0.55 1.13 0.74 0.53 0.19 0.15 Ratio B. Actual Maintenance

Expenditure/Theoretical Cost of Maint. 0.33 1.12 0.57 0.47 0.20 0.15 10. Time for payments to Consultants

Time for Payments, Consultants and Contractors Ratio (Consultants) * Approval 0.61 0.89 1.86 0.93 0.83 0.37 0.36 * Payments 0.82 1.38 1.85 6.22 0.9 0.71 0.97 Ratio (Contractors) * Approval 0.89 0.62 -- 1.13 0.23 0.26 0.41 * Payments 2.28 1.25 -- -- 0.4 0.32 0.36 11. Time for contract Administration Time for Contract Administration

Index

* Feasibility Study 0.56 1.74 -- 0.59 --* Approval of feasibility study -- 1.2 -- 1.83 --* Detailed Design 1.12 1.86 -- -- --* Approval of Detailed Design 2.03 6.82 1.30 --

--* Construction Supervision 0.04 * Prequalification of contracts 1.02 -- -- -- 4.15 0.65 * Construction

* Tendering for civil work 2.17 -- -- 1.25 1.25 0.86 * Mobilization 1.10 -- -- 0.40

--Broad Description of Index/Ratio 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 Trend of Index/Ratio

Over view of Trend Indicators

(14)

12. Contract Work/Total Construction

Work Private/Total construction Ratio

Ratio A. Private Sector/Total Construction

* kilometers 0.44 0.47 0.42 0.15 0.45 0.62 0.73 * Birr (million) 0.32 0.58 0.76 0.53 0.78 0.9 0.93 Ratio B. International/Total Construction

* kilometers 0.39 0.35 0.12 0.06 0.27 0.52 0.53 * Birr(million) 0.28 0.31 0.48 0.24 0.64 0.77 0.81 Ratio C. Local Equip.. Contracts. /Total Construction

* kilometers 0.05 0.12 0.31 0.09 0.17 0.10 0.19 * Birr (million) 0.94 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.14 0.13 0.12 No. of International Contracts 9 7 3 1 6 9 13 No. of Local Contracts 2 2 12 12 12 2 5

Average size

* International equipment based contracts 7.30 8.1 72.55 63.37 64.7 89.63 64.64 * Local equipment based contracts 5.30 24.25 10.77 6.25 6.83 65.50 25.45 13. Labour-based Road+ _{Ratio A. Labor-Based/Total Construction (km)} _-- _-- _0.34 _0.62 _0.29 _0.21 _0.18

Construction/Total Construction Ratio B. Labor-based/Total Construction (Birr) -- -- -- -- 0.05 0.02 0.02 14. Axle Load Ratio of Vehicles with

overload and within legal limits Actual Axle load/legal limit Ratio Overload/Legal limits (No.)

* Front Axle 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 * Rear Axle 1.10 1.01 1.9 0.80 0.8 1.04 1.09

Average Axle loads/Legal limits (Axle loads)

Average Axle Loads of vehicles Exceeding legal limits (Axle loads)

Broad Description of Index/Ratio 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'012001/02

Trend of Index/Ratio

Over view of Trend Indicators

(15)

15. Unit costs for construction,

Rehabilitation & Maintenance Construction, Rehabilitation and Maintenance Construction Paved -- 100 -- -- --Gravel -- 100 123.3 123.3 131.9 131.9 136.8 Rehabilitation Paved -- 100 80 80 68 68 76.7 Gravel -- 100 126.6 126.6 140 140 140 Maintenance Routine Paved -- 100 92 100 200 200 210 Gravel -- 100 89.8 100 200 200 210 Periodic Paved -- 100 103.3 106.7 137.7 137.7 155 Gravel -- 100 100.9 102.3 92.7 92.7 151.4 16. Journey Time Index A. Light vehicles

Paved 100 90.04 88.44 86.13 Gravel 100 104.56 104.83 205.86 Index B. Heavy Vehicles

Paved 100 97.73 97.78 93.59 Gravel 100 103.2 105.91 103.82

Broad Description of Index/Ratio 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02

Trend of Index/Ratio

Over view of Trend Indicators

(16)

Three Additional Indicators

Employment for Local Labour (2001/2002)

• Total Employment (no)

9448

•Skilled (no)

2373

•Emp. Local labour (no.)

4335

•Emp. International Contr. (no.)

5113

•Emp. For women

695

(17)

Income Generated for Local

Labour

2001/2002

Million Birr

Total

31.4

By Women

2.54

From Int. Contra.

15.7

From Local Contra.

(18)

Skill Upgrading

Baseline(2001/02

)

Professional (no.)

23

Topo

Survey (no.)

1

Mechanics(no.)

9

Adm. + Acc. (no.)

5

ERTTP (no.)

300

Labour

-

based (no.)

166

Operators, Foremen, etc

(19)

Conclusio

ns

The Overall Findings Show Signs of Progress

towards:

•

Improving Accessibility

•

Reducing proportion of roads rated “poor”

•

Increasing VOC Savings

•

Reducing Journey Time

•

Reducing Time for Payment to Consultants and

Contractors

(20)

Conclusio

ns

•

Reducing Time for Payment

•

Reducing Time for Contract Administration

•

(21)

Conclusio

ns

On the Contrary, there are Shortcomings

Concerning:

•

Road Safety

•

Kilometers of Roads Maintained (Primarily

Regional)

•

Labor

-

Based Technology

•

Maintenance Expenditure/Capacity

•

(22)

Conclusio

ns

Further, there are uncertainties about

•

Freight rates and passenger fares

•

Maintenance Cost /Total Cost of Maintained

Network

Note:

External Factors affected performance.

About Monitoring System:

Limitations in data management

(23)

Recommendations

The following are the main Recommendations:

•

A More Coordinated Investment Program and

Recurrent Budget/Exp.. To Expand Road

Network to Improve Spatial Accessibility

•

Strengthen Enforcement of Axle Load

Regulations and Assess Future Policy For

Maximizing Economic Gain From Use of Larger

Trucks Beyond The Prevailing Limit.

(24)

Recommendations

•

Ensure Effective Enforcement of Traffic Law

and Introduce Road Safety Education and

Publicity Campaigns

•

Create Accident Analysis Capacity for

Introducing Road Safety Measures

•

Formulate Road Maintenance Program Based

on Need

(25)

Recommendations

•

Expedite Transforming Maintenance Districts

to Enterprises Oriented Towards Contract

Management

•

Provide Technical and Financial Support to the

Local Contracting Industry (e.g. start up capital)

•

Introduce Balancing

-

Packaging in

International Tendering

•

Integrate

Labour

-

Based Technology in

Regional Road Programmes

(26)

Could we say

The indicators created the lens through which we see the

RSDP

Some Provocative Questions

“Questions”