The Distance Education and e-learning Landscape. Volume 1: Learning Management Platforms, Software and Tools

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The Distance

Education and

e-Learning

Landscape

Volume 1: Learning

Management Platforms,

Software and Tools

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The Distance Education and e-Learning

Landscape

Volume 1: Learning Management Platforms, Software and Tools

November 2007

Publication No. RE-EDU-V1

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The Distance Education and e-Learning Landscape V1: Learning Management Platforms, Software and Tools

About the Author

Alan D. Greenberg is a Senior Analyst & Partner at Wainhouse Research. Alan is practice manager for the Wainhouse Research Education and e-Learning advisory service. As consultant, analyst, communicator, and strategist, Alan has worked in the telecommunications, videoconferencing, software and services, and multimedia arenas for more than 24 years, holding positions with Texas Instruments, VTEL, and several Austin, Texas-based startups, and consulting to many organizations. He has conducted research into dozens of distance learning networks and corporate e-Learning

environments, was product marketing manager for a set of turnkey classroom packages, and led a number of educational and training initiatives. He has published white papers and research notes and conducted webinars on topics like best practices for content providers and K-12, the effectiveness of distance learning, the penetration of video into K-12 markets, web conferencing for e-Learning, virtual labs, topics, and he has keynoted or presented at USDLA, statewide distance educational association, Online Educa, ED-NET, and many other educational and training events. Alan serves on the advisory board of the Center for Interactive Learning and Collaboration. Alan specializes in primary end user research and is a trained focus group moderator and interviewer. He holds an M.A. from the University of Texas at Austin and a B.A. from Hampshire College, Amherst MA. He can be reached at [email protected].

About Wainhouse Research

Wainhouse Research is an independent market research firm that focuses on critical issues in the Unified Communications and rich media conferencing fields. The company conducts multi-client as well as custom research studies for industry vendors and consults with end users on key implementation issues. The firm also publishes a news bulletin, white papers and market statistics, and delivers public and private seminars as well as presentations at industry meetings. for more information.

COPYRIGHT NOTICE

reproduced in any form, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any method or means, electrical, mechanical, photographic, or otherwise, without the express written permission of Wainhouse Research, 34 Duck Hill Terrace, Duxbury, MA 02332 (Tel 781-934-6165; Fax: 781-846-0701) www.wainhouse.com.

NOTE: The material presented in this report is based on both primary and secondary market data coupled with our professional interpretation of the facts. We believe that the basic information and recommendations presented in this study provide a basis for sound business decisions, but no warranty as to completeness or accuracy is implied. All market estimates and forecasts are those of the authors, except as noted. We welcome

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Figures

Figure 1 Unified Collaboration Environment for Distance Education & e-Learning ... 7

Figure 2 Unified Collaboration Environment for Distance Education & e-Learning ... 12

Figure 3 Indiana University Oncourse LMS Solution, Sakai-Based ... 15

Figure 4 SumTotal Talent on Demand Dashboard ... 16

Figure 5 Second Life Animation Class... 19

Figure 6 Educational and e-Learning Applications ... 23

Figure 7 SCORM LMS Model ... 25

Figure 8 LMS Snapshot: Ability to Execute -- Depth of Offerings... 29

Figure 9 Adoption Continuum ... 32

Figure 10 In-World, Group Class on Second Life ... 75

Figure 11 2007 LMS Market Forecast Revenues ... 82

Figure 12 Total LMS Revenue Forecast - $M - 2007-2011 ... 84

Tables

Table 1 Applications by Technology... 23

Table 2 Vendor Vertical Market Focus ... 28

Table 3 Total LMS Revenue Forecast - $M - 2007-2011... 84

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Chapter 1. Executive Summary

Scope of This Report Series

Several traditional dividing lines have existed as methods of defining distance education and e-Learning. These have included:

¾ Synchronous (real-time) versus asynchronous (on-demand)

¾ Brick-and-mortar (physical universe) versus online learning

¾ Learning moment versus learning reinforcement (live or on-demand)

This report series is meant to serve as a broad overview of today’s state of the distance education and e-Learning markets. Wainhouse Research has made a conscious effort to narrow its coverage to those companies that offer some type of strategic differentiation or

go-to-market messaging unique to one of three major markets: corporate training, higher

education, or K-12.

Five major technology areas and their applications are covered in the three volumes of The Distance Education and e-Learning Landscape report series:

Volume 1: Learning Management Platforms, Software and Tools

¾ Provides industry overview of LMS and corollary software tools, with profiles of Adobe, Blackboard, Cisco, GeoLearning, IBM, Learn.com, Linden Lab (Second Life), Plateau Systems, Saba Centra, and SumTotal Systems. Other companies and/or products discussed include Angel Learning, Desire2Learn, Microsoft, Moodle,

Oracle, Sakai, and SkillSoft..

Volume 2: Video for Learning

¾ Provides industry overview of videoconferencing and streaming video products and services for distance education, with profiles of Cisco, Haivision, IOCOM, Polycom, RADVISION, Sonic Foundry, TANDBERG, and VBrick. Other companies

discussed include LifeSize Communications, Safari, Aethra, and SONY.

Volume 3: Interaction Enablers and Synchronous Web Tools

¾ Provides industry overview of web conferencing, classroom management, and virtual classroom products and services for distance education, with profiles of Adobe, Cisco, Citrix Online, DyKnow, Elluminate, IBM, Interwise (AT&T), Interwrite Learning, Linden Lab (Second Life), Mimio, Saba Centra, Smart Technologies, Wimba, and WebEx. Other companies and/or products discussed include iLinc, Microsoft, Polyvision, Promethean, and others.

This report series focuses on vendors and service providers who create technologies that are used to deliver instructional content, and to manage (or create context for) evolving

relationships between educator/trainer and learner. Figure 1 illustrates the types of

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collaboration environment for distance education and e-Learning. The “unification

process” is only just underway, but will continue to evolve for years to come.

Figure 1 Unified Collaboration Environment for Distance Education & e-Learning

Each volume of this report series contains a market overview, vendor profiles of key and up-and-coming vendors, market forecast, and predictions and probabilities for a wide variety of future directions for the covered industries. Those predictions are offered in terms of percent probability by fall 2009 and fall 2012.

Each market overview describes:

¾ Market dynamics

¾ Ability to execute contrasted with depth of offerings

¾ Buying and deployment behaviors

¾ Strategies for and approaches to the education and e-Learning markets

¾ Depth of offerings/ability to execute comparisons between vendors Methodology

Wainhouse Research held one or more briefings with every vendor profiled. Some briefings included product demonstrations. Additional primary research was conducted through interviews with a select group of educators and trainers, and with some vendors not covered through profiles but discussed in the market overview. Secondary research consisted of reviews of numerous research reports and online data sources. We combine these efforts with our past coverage of distance education and e-Learning, most of which has surrounded videoconferencing, web conferencing, groupware, and streaming video applications, best practices, and uses cases.

Infrastructure Services

Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Bandwidth Recording / archiving / streaming Collaboration portals, wikis, text/ audio threads, & eRooms

Educational Users

LMS / CMS / VLEs

Unified Collaboration Environment

IM / Web conferencing / interactive writing tools Asynchronous Synchronous Classroom video / PC & web-based video

Infrastructure Services

Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Bandwidth Recording / archiving / streaming Collaboration portals, wikis, text/ audio threads, & eRooms

Educational Users

LMS / CMS / VLEs

Unified Collaboration Environment

IM / Web conferencing / interactive writing tools Asynchronous Synchronous Classroom video / PC & web-based video

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LMS Market

Within the LMS market – a subset of the distance education and e-Learning market – the dividing lines also exist: between corporate and educational markets, and between various types of functionality and degrees of integration with other types of training and educational products.

An LMS describes software tools designed to track, manage, and enable learning

activities, while offering additional functionality that can range from specific self-service registration capabilities to full-blown asynchronous and synchronous content creation, teaching, and workflow tools. In general, corporate LMS’s may focus on different capabilities from those delivered by an LMS designed for educators,

For the LMS market, Wainhouse Research believes that Blackboard (educational

markets) and SumTotal (corporate markets) are best of breed platforms, though they face fierce competition going forward from Saba Centra, GeoLearning, Plateau, IBM,

Learn.com, and SkillSoft in particular. There are a number of wild cards, including Cisco and Adobe (neither of which offer formal LMS products at this time), Moodle, and Second Life, which may emerge as a major force in educational and training communities in coming years.

Mid-tier companies like Learn.com, GeoLearning, ANGEL Learning, Plateau, and Saba Centra are the most challenged to grow their topline revenues and market share, and we expect to see further consolidation in the next 24 months. (See Chapter 5 of this report,

Predictions and Probabilities.) Many of these companies are highly aggressive,

hyperbolic, and competitive – while fighting in a crowd over a slowly growing market. While they may have hundreds of customers, they tend to fluctuate in ability to deliver new capabilities and at times their financials fluctuate quarter to quarter.

Wainhouse Research believes the overall market for LMS platforms and services will grow from $802.8 million in 2007 to $1.5 billion in 2011, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%. The bulk of this growth will occur in higher education. Chapter 4,

Market Forecast, contains a complete revenue forecast over a five year period. The

corporate segment of the industry will enter a slow growth period and undergo further consolidation.

We also believe that there is a greater than 50% probability that many LMS platforms will include real-time audio, web conferencing, Instant Messaging, Presence, and videoconferencing capabilities as a matter of course within two years, and a 95% probability these capabilities are contained within five years. Hosted and managed services will become the preferred deployment mode for the traditionally CPE-based LMS industry. These and other predictions are discussed in Chapter 5, Predictions and Probabilities.

The challenge for the LMS marketplace is that because of the amount of training time to educate users how to interact with systems and one another, it is too costly for an

organization to switch LMS vendors, notwithstanding all the recent strides made in content reusability. Thus the growth going forward will come from greenfield users much more than from expanding (or “flipping”) existing deployments. This is the single greatest challenge for the LMS industry today, from a financial sustainability perspective.

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From a pedagogical perspective, the greatest challenge to the LMS industry is the changing mindset of the learner. The Learning Management System, which historically was a two-way platform for driving learner behavior, will instead – increasingly – be driven by learners themselves.

The Distance Education and e-learning Landscape. Volume 1: Learning Management Platforms, Software and Tools

The Distance

Education and

e-Learning

Landscape

Volume 1: Learning

Management Platforms,

Software and Tools

The Distance Education and e-Learning

Landscape

Volume 1: Learning Management Platforms, Software and Tools

November 2007

Distance Education & e-Learning Landscape

Order Form

Table of Contents

Figures

Tables

Chapter 1. Executive Summary

Infrastructure Services

Educational Users

Unified Collaboration Environment

Infrastructure Services

Educational Users

Unified Collaboration Environment