157
Distributed
Decision
Support Using
a
Web-based Interface:
Prevention
of
Sudden Cardiac Death
GILLIAN
D.
SANDERS,
PhD,
C. GREG
HAGERTY,
MS,
FRANK A.
SONNENBERG, MD,
MARK
A.
HLATKY,
MD,
DOUGLAS
K.
OWENS, MD,
MSc
Although decision models can provide a formal foundation for guideline development
and clinical decision support, their widespread use is often limited by the lack of
plat-form-independent
software thatgeographically
dispersed users can access and useeasily
without extensivetraining.
To address these limitations the authors developeda World Wide Web-based interface for previously developed decision models. They
describe the use and functionality of the interface using a decision model that evaluates
the cost-effectiveness of strategies for preventing sudden cardiac death. The system
allows an analyst to use a web browser to interact with the decision model and to
change the values of input variables within pre-specified ranges, to specify sensitivity
or threshold analyses, to evaluate the decision model, and to view the results
gener-ated dynamically. The web site also provides
linkages
to an explanation of the model, and evidence tables for input variables. The system demonstrates a method forpro-viding distributed decision support to remote users such as guideline developers,
de-cision analysts, and potentially practicing physicians. The web interface provides
plat-form-independent and almost universal access to a decision model. This approach can
make distributed decision support both practical and economical, and has the potential
to increase the usefulness of decision models
by enabling
a broader audience toin-corporate systematic analyses into both policy and clinical decisions. Key words:
de-cision-support techniques; practice guidelines; user-computer interface; decision
anal-ysis. (Med Decis Making 1999;19:157-166)
Decision models
provide
ananalytic
framework forrepresenting
theevidence,
outcomes, andprefer-ences in a clinical
decision.&dquo;’
They
represent
the available alternatives and events ofinterest,
andcombine these elements in an
objective
andpre-dictable way to
produce
recommendations that areconsistent with
underlying
data andassumptions.
Decision models enable
analysts
andguideline
de-velopers
toperform sensitivity analyses
thatidentify
critical variables andhighlight
theimportance
(or lack ofimportance)
ofuncertainty
about thesevar-iables.
Thus,
decision modelsprovide
asystematic
method for
representing
what is known about aclinical
problem,
and anapproach
fordetermining
whether what is not known is
important.
Because of theseadvantages,
authors ofpractice
guidelines
in-creasingly depend
on decision models to inform theguideline
recommendations.3-18
Although
use of decision models has severaladvantages,l’19-Zl
development
of clinical decisionReceived April 17, 1998, from the Center for Primary Care and
Outcomes Research, Department of Medicine, Stanford
Univer-sity, Stanford, California (GDS, DKO); the UMDNJ/Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, New Jersey (CGH, FAS); the Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford
University, Stanford, California (MAH); the VA Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, California (DKO); and Stanford Medical
Informatics, Department of Medicine, Stanford University (GDS,
DKO). Revision accepted for publication November 5, 1998.
Pre-sented at the 19th annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Houston, Texas, October 26-29, 1997. Sup-ported in part by the Cardiac Arrhythmia and Risk of Death
Pa-tient Outcomes Research Team grant (HS 08362) to Stanford
Uni-versity from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, Rockville, Maryland. Dr. Owens is supported by a Career
Devel-opment Award from the Health Services Research and
Devel-opment Service, Department of Veterans Affairs.
Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. Sanders: Stanford University School of Medicine, HRP Redwood Building,
Room T242, Stanford, CA 94305-5405; telephone: (650)723-5656;
FIGURE 1 Schematic representation of the ICD
cost-effective-ness decision model The square node represents a decision to
use one of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD),
amio-darone, or a combination strategy of amiodarone-to-ICD The circle represents a chance node. After a regimen is chosen, the
patient enters a Markov tree (denoted by rectangles containing
circles and an arrow) An ICD patient enters the Markov tree
only if he or she survives ICD implantation. The Markov trees represent the clinical events that can occur during each
one-month period as a patient is followed until death. For example,
a patient receiving the ICD regimen is at risk each month for ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF),
nonar-rhythmic cardiac death, and noncardiac death. If none of these
events occurs, the patient remains well for the one-month pe-riod. A patient who is well at the end of a given month reenters
the Markov tree Subtrees are denoted by rounded rectangles. Patients receiving the amiodarone regimen are at risk for V’T,
VF, nonarrhythmic cardiac death, noncardiac death, and toxicity from amiodarone. If toxicity from amiodarone occurs, the pa-tient enters the amiodarone-toxicity subtree.3’ Reproduced with
permission from Owens DK et al., Cost-effectiveness of implant-able cardioverter defibrillators relative to amiodarone for pre-vention of sudden cardiac death, Annals of Internal Medicine, 1997,126:1-12. Copyright American College of Physicians.
models also
requires
extensivetraining
and exper-tise in decisionanalysis,
clinicalmedicine,
andevi-dence
synthesis.
As anexample,
it took two years fora
multidisciplinary
team todevelop
a decision modelthat evaluated the cost-effectiveness of
using
anim-plantable
cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) toprevent
sudden cardiac death.22-z4
Furthermore,
theevi-dence used in a decision model may
require
updat-ing
as new evidence ispublished.
Forexample,
sev-eral clinical trials that will estimate the effectiveness of ICDs were still in progress when the model was
developed.&dquo;&dquo;
Becausepaper-based publications
arebrief,
sensitivity
or thresholdanalyses
that may beof interest to a
particular
user may not have been included in thepublished analysis.
Thus,
guideline
developers
orpracticing
physicians
mayquestion
whether a
published
cost-effectivenessanalysis
ap-plies
to theirpractices.
A
potential
solution to these limitations is to makethe decision model available for use
by analysts,
cli-nicians,
orguideline developers.
Untilrecently,
sub-stantial technical barriers
(e.g.,
need for users tohave
expertise
indecision-analytic
software,
thedi-versity
ofcomputing
platforms,
and thedisperse
lo-cations of
potential
users)prevented
such use of themodel. But now it is feasible to
provide
an interfaceto the model that enables remote users to
perform
analyses.
The existence of such a distributeddeci-sion-support
system
would allowguideline
devel-opers or clinicians to use the decision model in thedevelopment
of recommendations orguidelines,
toupdate
the model as new evidence becomesavail-able,
and toadapt
the model to reflect aparticular
patient
population
or clinicalsetting.1,27
Inprevious
work,
we have shown that suchsite-specific
guide-linespotentially provide
greater
healthbenefit,
en-hance economic
efficiency,
orboth,
whencom-pared
withglobal
guidelines.
1We describe here our
development
of aninter-active web-based interface for a decision model that
enables remote use of decision models. We
dem-onstrate the use of this interface with the Cardiac
Arrhythmia
and Risk of Death Patient OutcomesRe-search
Project
(CARD PORT) decision model toanalyze
the cost-effectiveness of
strategies
toprevent
sud-den cardiacdeath.22-24
Methods
We chose to illustrate the use of our
system,
named PORTAL, with the CARD PORT ICD
cost-effec-tiveness decision model because new clinical data are
becoming
availablerapidly,28,29
making
especially
important
theability
toadapt
existing
analyses easily.
The ICD cost-effectiveness decision model
evalu-ates the cost-effectiveness of
strategies
forprevent-ing
sudden cardiac death (SCD)(figure
1). The twostrategies
aretherapy
with athird-generation
ICD versus administration ofamiodarone,
the mostpromising pharmocologic
alternative. The Markovim-planting
anICD,
administering
amiodarone,
or firstadministering
amiodarone and thenimplanting
anICD after an
arrhythmic
event occurs.Assuming
apatient
survives the ICDoperation,
he or she is atrisk for an
arrhythmic
event andpotential
death,
fornonarrhythmic
cardiacdeath,
or for noncardiacdeath,
each month. Patients who receive theamio-darone
regimen
are also at risk for amiodaronetox-icity.
The ICD cost-effectiveness decision model is
im-plemented
in the Decision Makeranalytic
software. 30
To
perform
remoteanalyses,
we created PORTAL, an interactive web-based interface for this decisionmodel
(figure
2). PORTAL uses Windowscommon-gateway
interface (Win-CGI)scripts
written in VisualBasic (Microsoft Visual Basic 4.0). PORTAL has two
main modules: the web-interface control module
and the
analytic-software (e.g.,
Decision Maker)driver. The web-interface control module manages
the
organization
and content of the webpages,
aswell as interactions with the user. The web interface
allows the user to browse
through
the manycom-ponents
of the decisionmodel,
the model’sunder-lying
data,
and theanalytic
results. When a useren-ters data into the
analytic-results
section of the web page, the control module interacts with theanalytic-software driver to
perform dynamic
remoteanaly-ses.
The
analytic-software
driver usesobject linking
and
embedding
(OLE) commands to interact withthe
underlying
decision model. The driver has nu-merouscapabilities, including
opening
the softwarepackage, setting required
default values(e.g.,
indi-cating
whether or not the decision model is acost-effectiveness
model),
returning
the values of modelparameters
or softwaresettings, changing
base-casevalues,
analyzing
the tree with or withoutcost-ef-fectiveness,
setting
up andperforming
sensitivity
and threshold
analyses,
andsaving
theanalytic
re-sults.
Once the
analytic-software
driver hasperformed
the needed
analyses,
the web-interface controlmod-ule formats and
displays
the results for the user. This module also createsdynamically
agraphic
dis-play
of thesensitivity-analysis
results. Much of theparsing
andgraphing
of the results iscurrently
donethrough
interaction of the control module withEx-cel (Microsoft Excel 97)
spreadsheets.
The webin-terface controls these
spreadsheets
aswell,
through
OLE commands. For
example,
theanalytic-software
driver for Decision Maker saves the results of
sen-sitivity
analyses
in a table format. This table is loadedinto Excel
and,
using
OLEcommands,
the controlmodule indicates the desired columns and rows to
create a
graph
of thesensitivity-analysis
results. Thisgraph
is saved as agraphics interchange
format(GIF) file that the user may view
using
our webin-FIGURE 2. Schematic representation of poRTnr,’s architecture.
The PORTAL system (the ellipse) has two main modules: the web-interface control module and the analytic software module. The web-interface control module interacts with the user (A),
allow-ing the user to browse the analysis, enter new input data, and view custom-tailored analyses. The web-interface control mod-ule interacts with the analytic-software driver (B) to perform the
needed remote analyses. The analytic-software driver uses object
linking and embedding commands to interact with the
under-lying decision model (C). Although in this paper we describe the Decision Maker software module and the Cardiac Arrhythmia
decision model, other analytic-software modules and decision models can interact with the PORTAL system.
terface.
Currently
we havedeveloped
the DecisionMaker
analytic-software
driver;
we have thecapa-bility
todevelop
other drivers for different decision-model formats.System Description
and
Example
Scenario
A user is able to
perform
several actionsusing
PORTAL. He or she can browse the modeldescrip-tion,
assumptions,
data,
evidencetables,
andbase-case results. As
part
of the interactiveinterface,
theuser can make
changes
to the base-caseinput
var-iables and then view the
changed
health andeco-nomic results. PORTAL also can calculate the
mar-ginal
cost-effectiveness of thecompeting strategies.
Finally,
the user canperform
and viewsensitivity
and threshold
analyses
on the numerous modelvar-iables.
As an
example,
suppose that aguideline
devel-oper at a remote site identifies apatient
population
that he or she believes to be at risk for SCD. The
developer
wants informationregarding
the use of anICD for this
particular population.
He or she locates thepublished
cost-effectivenessanalysis
comparing
the use of an ICD and administration of
amioda-rone,24 noticing
that the values of some variables aredifferent from those for the
patient
population
inquestion.
He or she wants to see howchanging
thesevalues affect the results of the decision
analysis.
First,
at theguideline developer’s
institution,
thecost of ICD
implantation
is much lower($20,000)
than that listed in thepublished
analysis
input
table($44,600). Second,
theprobability
of an ICD-relatedFIGURE 3 Home page of the Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) Decision Modeling Group The menu on the left side allows the user to
navigate through a description of the cost-effectiveness decision model for the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) vs amio-darone and of other related projects The user is able to browse the modeling definitions, assumptions, schematics of the model, input
data, evidence tables, main results, and sensitivity analyses These noninteractme capabilities are detailed elsewhere 3°
The home page also provides links for the user to perform interactive analyses
FIGURE 4 Input variable best-estimate values and sources The input table lists the variable name (with links to the corresponding evidence tables where appropriate), the base-case values, the range used for sensitivity analyses, the level of evidence based on a rating
system developed by the U S Preventive Services Task Force, and the sources used to determine the chosen values The user is then able to enter a new value for a given variable This screen shows the user changing the perioperative mortality from 1 8% to 0 5%
FIGURE 5 Parameters for sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity-analysis section of the web interface allows a user to choose an input
variable, and then to set the desired minimum and maximum values for the sensitivity analysis as well as the incremental step This
user uses the pull-down menu to choose the decision-model variable of Frequency of battery replacement as the variable on which to
perform the sensitivity analysis. Notice that the base-case value is listed in square brackets-[4 years]-after the variable name After
choosing the variable on which to perform the sensitivity analysis, the user sets the remaining parameters (minimum value, maximum
value, and incremental step) This screen shows the user choosing a minimum frequency of battery replacement of every three years,
a maximum value of every eight years, and an incremental step of every one year
but a recent
study
has determined thatperioperative
mortality
is 0.5% at thedeveloper’s
institution.Fi-nally,
thepublished analysis
uses four years for thefrequency
of ICDbattery
replacement.
Theguideline
developer
has read a recentreport
from the ICDmanufacturers that claims that the ICD
battery
lifeis now
reaching eight
years. Because thedeveloper
is still uncertain about this
value,
he or she wantsto
perform
asensitivity analysis
on thefrequency
ofbattery replacement
whiletaking
into account the lower ICD cost and lowerperioperative
death rate.Our
guideline developer
goes to the SCD decisionmodeling
group home page(figure
3). On the left side is a menu that is consistentthroughout
thewebsite and that enables the user to
navigate
through
themodeling
assumptions, input
data,
evi-dence,
and results. It alsoprovides
links to the in-teractiveanalyses.
CHANGING BASE-CASE VALUES
The
guideline developer
clicks on theInput
Datalink under the
Perform Analyses heading
in the menu. Aninput-variable
table similar to the onefound in the
published
cost-effectivenessanalysis
appears. In addition to the variable name, base-case
value,
sensitivity-analysis
range, level ofevidence,
and source, there is a field for the user to enter a new value for any of the variables. Forexample,
theprobability
of ICDperioperative
death is listed as1.8%. The
guideline developer changes
this value to0.5% to reflect the institution’s lower
perioperative
mortality (figure
4).Similarly,
he or shechanges
the initial cost of the ICD device from $44,600 to$20,000.
The
developer
does notchange
thefrequency
ofbat-tery
replacement
because he or she would rather see the effect of this variable in asensitivity
analysis
over a range of values.SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
The
guideline developer
uses thepull-down
menuto choose the
frequency
ofbattery replacement
asthe variable to be tested in
sensitivity analyses.
Heor she chooses a minimum
frequency
of every threeyears and a maximum
frequency
of everyeight
years, with an incremental
step
of one year(fig.
5). Theguideline developer
then submits theanaly-ses. He or she checks the boxes
corresponding
toMain
Results,
Marginal
CostEffectiveness,
andSen-sitivity
Analyses
toidentify
thoseanalyses
he or she would likeperformed
(not shown). The PORTALsys-tem interacts with the Decision Maker OLE interface and the
underlying
decision model to return there-quested
results.ANALYTIC RESULTS
PORTAL returns a web page with the
performed
analyses (figure
6). Thetop
table lists the mainre-sults. Each row
corresponds
to one of the threestrategies
(ICDonly,
amiodaroneonly,
and anamio-darone-to-ICD
strategy).
The columns indicate theexpected
costs andquality-adjusted
life years asso-ciated with these differentstrategies.
The secondta-ble shows the
marginal
cost-effectivenessexpressed
in cost per
quality-adjusted
life years saved when theFIGURE 6 Results of the interactive analysis The system returns the results in a tabular form. For example, the Mam Results table shown here lists the three strategies (ICD only, amiodarone only, and amiodarone-to-ICD) The remaining columns list the costs and the quality-adjusted life expectancies associated with the different strategies The second table lists the Marginal Cost Effectiveness
FIGURE 7 (bottom of facing page) Results of interactive sensitivity analysis The web interface returns a table of the sensitivity-analysis results The columns (from left to right) mdicate the chosen variable and values possible strategies, corresponding costs, effectiveness,,
average cost-effectiveness marginal costs, marginal effectiveness, and marginal cost-effectiveness This screen shows the
sensitivity-analysis results for varying the frequency of battery replacement from every three years to every eight years At the bottom of the table is a link that allows the user to mew a graph of these sensitivity-analysis results
I
FIGURE 8 Graph of the performed sensitivity analysis Our system creates dynamically a graph of the performed sensitivity analysis
On the X-axis is the variable chosen for the analysis (here, BattRepl for the frequency of battery replacement), on the Y-axis is the
marginal cost-effectiveness of ICD versus amiodarone, expressed in dollars per quahty-adjusted life year saved
PORTAL’S web interface has allowed the user to
ex-plore
thepublished
decision model and toadapt
that model to
represent
patients
in his or her insti-tution. Forexample,
themarginal
cost-effectiveness of ICD versus amiodarone in thepreviously
pub-lished
analyses
was $74,662 perQALY
saved. In the scenariodescribed,
using
the newdata,
themar-ginal
cost-effectiveness has been reduced to $35,341per
QALY
saved. PORTAL’S interactive abilities haveallowed the user to tailor the
underlying
decision model torepresent
moreaccurately
thepatient
pop-ulation inquestion.
In thisexample,
the customi-zation of the decision model hasproduced
amar-ginal
cost-effectiveness that is lower than thepublished expected
result and couldpotentially
change
the recommended treatment in this popu-lation.The third table shows the results of the
sensitivity
analysis
on thefrequency
ofbattery
replacement.
For the
specified
sensitivity-analysis
range of threeto
eight
years, this table lists thecorresponding
cost,effectiveness,
averagecost-effectiveness,
marginal
cost,
marginal
effectiveness,
andmarginal
cost-ef-fectiveness of eachstrategy
(figure
7). The user canalso view an
accompanying
graph
of thesesensitiv-ity-analysis
results that is createddynamically
for therequested
results(figure
8).SYSTEM EXTENSIONS
To aid in the
development
ofsite-specific
guide-lines,
Sanders andcolleagues
havedeveloped
ALCHE-MisT, a
computer-based
tool that extends the PORTALsystem
by
using
decision models togenerate
anno-tated clinicalalgorithms
automatically.31
The ALCHE-MisTsystem
obtains information from the decisionmodel and the decision
analyst
toautomatically
cre-ate an annotated
algorithm
of theoptimal
test ortreatment
strategy,
as determinedby
the decision model. As with the PORTALsystem,
a remote user can tailor theinput
values of the decision model. ALCHE-MIST thenautomatically
creates anupdated
algo-rithm that reflects the
optimal
strategy
based onthese new
inputs.
Thesystem
dynamically
creates a web page thatdisplays
theupdated
algorithm
to theremote user.
Thus,
the ALCHEMISTsystem
provides
amethod for
creating
evidence-based,
site-specific
clinical
algorithms
that reflect the characteristics ofa user’s
practice setting
orpatient
population.
Thissystem
is animportant
extension of PORTAL becauseit
provides
a method forautomatically analyzing
adecision model and
displaying
the results of theanalysis
in an intuitivecompact
format-a clinicalalgorithm. Preliminary
evaluation of the ALCHEMISTsystem
demonstrated that usersstrongly
andsignif-icantly preferred guidelines developed
within thisframework to
guidelines
published by nationally
recognized
organizations. 31-33
Discussion
As the
example
scenariodemonstrates,
ourweb-based interface to a decision model can
provide
dis-tributed
dynamic
decisionsupport
to remote userssuch as decision
analysts,
guideline
developers,
peerreviewers,
and clinicians. PORTAL’S interface allowsusers to browse and
interrogate
adeveloped
deci-sion model and to
adapt
theinput
variables andanalyses
torepresent
theirpatient
populations,
andtherefore we believe may
provide
important
healthbenefits. Prior to the
development
of atechnology
such as PORTAL,
provision
of decisionsupport
wasdifficult because use of models
required
extensiveexperience
with the availablesoftware,
the models could not be usedeasily
across differentcomputing
platforms,
and it was notpossible
toanalyze
models from a remote site. Inaddition,
each user had toown
decision-analytic
software,
obtain the decisionmodel,
andperform analyses locally.
PORTAL enablesany user who has a web browser to
analyze
a de-cision modelremotely. Although
much of theinfor-mation needed to create the
original
interface to adecision model can be obtained
directly
from thedecision
model,
the PORTALsystem
requires
someadditional information from the decision
analyst.
For
example,
the PORTALsystem
requires
theanalyst
to
complete
a list ofmodeling
assumptions,
the validsensitivity
analysis
ranges, necessarydefinitions,
and references used in theanalysis.34
This informationcan be obtained
directly
over the webusing
ade-cision-model annotation
editor.31
Although
complet-ing
this information is additional work for the de-cisionanalyst,
it is information that should bereadily
available. Inaddition,
theimplementation
of the annotation editor on the web allows decisionanalysts
access to the editor from differentinstitu-tions,
and allowsdecision-analysis
teams to sharedecision-modeling
tasks among members located atgeographically
disparate
institutions who areusing
different
computing
platforms.31
Similar interactive sites are
being developed
else-where. Kattan and
colleagues developed
asystem
that allows a user to load a
developed
decisionmodel,
tospecify
which variables should beinter-active,
and topublish
this interactive decision modelon his or her
website.35
Similarly,
users of the DATAdecision-analytic
softwareby
TreeAge
can create a&dquo;Custom Interface&dquo; to a
developed
decision model.TreeAge
is betatesting
a web-based version of itssystem.36
Currently,
PORTAL treatsutility
variables thesame as any other
input
variable. An extension ofour work would
incorporate
research oncomputer-based
utility
assessments tohelp
the user todeter-mine his or her
patient’s
utilities.34 3’-40Web interfaces to decision models such as that
described in this article will
provide
a means fordistributed decision
support34
andpotentially
forguideline development.
Acentrally
locatedguide-line-resource
group
coulddevelop
a decisionmodel,
and could disseminate that modelusing
aninteractive web interface to
potential guideline
de-velopers.
These users could then make modifica-tions to the evidenceunderlying
the decision model andsubsequently
couldmodify
thecorresponding
guideline.41
The
availability
of distributed decisionsupport
with a web-based interface to a decision model
raises several
questions.
Should interactive decisionmodels be peer reviewed? How should such peer
review occur?
Then,
after access to an interactivedecision model is
provided
on theweb,
who isre-sponsible
forkeeping
the model up to date withthe latest clinical evidence? Previous researchers
have studied methods of
critiquing
decisionanal-yses.42-46
Although
most of these studies concentrateon
paper-based
decisionanalyses,
their criteriaapply
to web-based decisionanalyses.23
Wesuggest
that a
comprehensive
checklist of desirableele-ments of any decision
analysis
becompiled
andused to evaluate web-based decision models before
they
are used. Forexample,
a checklist of desirableelements would include peer review of the
analysis,
discussion of the
quality
of theevidence,
clearstate-ment of the
underlying
assumptions,
listing
of thedata sources, and well-defined and relevant
strate-gies.
Conclusions
Our
approach,
demonstrated here for the CardiacArrhythmia
PORT ICD cost-effectiveness decisionmodel,
isgeneralizable
to any decision model in anydomain.&dquo;
Itprovides
distributed decisionsupport
to remote users such asguideline developers,
decisionanalysts,
andpracticing
physicians.
PORTAL’S webin-terface
provides platform-independent
and almostuniversal access to the decision model. This
ap-proach
can make distributed decisionsupport
anddecision-model
sharing
bothpractical
andeconom-ical. The
approach
will increase the usefulness ofdecision
models,
and enable a broader audience toincorporate
systematic analyses
into bothpolicy
and clinical decisions.The authors thank Kathryn McDonald, Robert F. Nease Jr., and
Lyn Duprd for comments on the manuscript and editorial
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