Disclaimer: Forex Art of War and Vance Williams believe
that customer should be aware of the risks associated with
over-the-counter, spot Forex. Forex trading is highly
speculative in nature which can mean currency prices may
become extremely volatile. Forex trading is highly
leveraged, since low margin deposits normally are
required, an extremely high degree of leverage is
obtainable in foreign exchange trading. A relatively small
market movement will have a proportionately larger impact
on the funds you have deposited. You may sustain a total
loss of your funds. Since the possibility of losing your
entire cash balance does exist, speculation in the Forex
market should only be conducted with risk capital you can
afford to lose which will not dramatically impact your
Personal Note from Vance
This book represents the best of 11 years of my Forex trading and coaching. I created this book prior to my retirement so that others would have a path to follow to reach success, efficiently. Of course I’m not actually retiring, just shifting more of my time to my passion, which is human potential and life coaching.
While I maintain the copyright on this book, you are welcome to share it with anyone you like. The only thing I ask is that you share the entire book, and not in pieces. So as long
as you are sharing the entire book, you are welcome to pass it out as much as you like.
Special note:
In this book, you will notice references to a community activity which is an important part of skill development. To do this on your own, you will need a forum that enables you to create your own topics and allows you to post pictures of your work. Create a forum which is your name or moniker. Have each of your friends do the same. Then as you all post trades, give each other feedback and follow what I show you in this book. I’ll provide a few more tips in the back of this book. If you don’t have a team, you can check out the tools I created for this purpose at www.forexartofwar.com
I wish you the very best on your journey! Vance Williams
An Introduction to Level 1
Most traders don't recognize their first battle. But since it is a battle of vision, it must be won.
If you are going to win in trading, you have to understand how the game is really played. The Forex culture fosters the belief that “if you have enough information, if you manage your risk well, and if you are disciplined, you will win.”
That is absolutely TRUE. But it’s also like telling someone who is overweight “if you eat right and exercise, you will lose weight.”
Is that a STRATEGY for losing weight? No. When an objective is truly important, you
will take the time to consider everything that can affect your success. Even when you have a good plan, it is a “starting point.”
As you put your plan into practice, you discover critically important information about yourself. Such as, you will find it’s better to not go to the store hungry. You might also discover that you continue to eat after you are no longer hungry.
Personally, I discovered that even though I won’t jog, I won’t walk, I won’t stretch, I will get beat up for an hour in Muay Thai Kick Boxing. Go figure. When I moved from my former residence and could no longer practice the same discipline, I had to find something else that I “would” do. “Eventually” I discovered that I’ll walk endlessly on the treadmill if the TV is on. Bingo.
When I came to Forex trading in 2004, my advantage was my experience with self-discipline. How do I get myself to make good choices? How do I consistently make good choices? If our goal is to lose weight, our greatest difficulty is going to be dealing with “how we feel.” We want something that is not good for us. The same is true with Forex trading. You are going to find out sooner or later that your emotions will prevent you from making money if you don’t have a strategy for making good decisions in spite of your emotions. So this is your first and most important choice. “Do what you feel like doing.”
Or…
“Learn to make good decisions regardless of the emotions you experience.”
I also like to think of this as operating proactively instead of reactively. Can I put off the short term discomfort for the longer term rewards?
Those are your two choices.
One is easy and results in no profit and the loss of all of your money. The second requires an effort and can enable you to reach your goal.
Make the right choice and you move forward. Make the wrong choice, and you end up repeating the same activity over and over again for months or years. This was Einstein’s definition of insanity, but people do it anyway. If you are ready to make the right choice, I wrote this book for you.
The Forex "culture" encourages an ineffective vision of Forex trading. This is primarily due to the fact that most information about Forex trading is provided by brokers in one way or another. They are not in the training business. They make money when you trade a live account. I’m not disparaging them. I’m grateful they make retail trading available for just about anyone. But at the same time, the best place to buy a car is probably not from an oil company. They want you to use oil, and have little incentive to make a great car. The bottom line is that if you want to succeed in Forex trading, you absolutely, positively must stop “following,” and think completely for yourself. Get in the habit of “going after the best information possible for making decisions.” The best information is often hidden behind a “symbol,” as you will soon see.
Chapter 1: Getting Started
If you are a member of my community, be sure to access the sessions I recorded,
specifically going over the content in this book. I would encourage you NOT to jump ahead. If you try to run before you learn to walk, you risk being disappointed.
Whether you are in my community or part of another, make it a habit to ask a question in your forum anytime you have one.
The goal of this first section (level 1) is to provide you with the tools and basic knowledge, so that you can build a solid foundation for high probability trading.
This guide is intended to show you the fastest and most efficient way to get started trading the Forex market. I’m not going to explain trading in a traditional sequence. Instead, we are going to get right into the charts, and you can learn as you go. The information is presented in the order it will be used. If you need charts or a trading platform, we provide those for free. We include videos that explain their use. You will find all of this in the member area.
Forex Art of War is a holistic strategy for winning that strives to take into account everything
that affects your ability to make consistent profit. I consider this first section to be the first level of knowledge, skill, and application. To illustrate: Before you can express an idea in a sentence, you must be able to write the words. To write words you must first learn the letters and basic rules for spelling.
For now, just practice the basics.
Here are the specific learning goals of Level 1: Tools such as charts and trading platform Vocabulary such as PIPs and Stop Loss
Basic trading logic that teaches trends, barrier, entry and exit
Implementing a simple trading plan, setting the trade on auto-pilot and leaving it alone
I have been trading and training others for over ten years. I have worked with thousands of aspiring traders, and had the privilege of working with some truly great traders. I love what I do because it is challenging and because I can help people to improve. People who strive
to reach further in their life inspire me. It’s why I am transitioning to life coach over the
next two years.
There are literally tens of thousands of pieces of information you “can” learn about the Forex market. I’m only going to focus on the essential things that you "need" to learn. I believe that you cannot make “more” profit until you learn to make “some” profit. So that is an important principle applied in this book and the subsequent training.
Basic Logic
As traders, we are anticipating what will happen in the future. How do we do this?
There is a simple logic in trading. Logic can be viewed and defined in many ways. I like to keep things simple. When I refer to logic, I’m referring to information from the past that can
be used to anticipate what is likely to happen in the future.
Human behavior is repetitive. When you look, you see it everywhere. We tend to shop at the same places, and buy the same food. We know when traffic will be congested on our roadways. While I have written extensively on this subject, suffice it to say that not only do we repeat the same behaviors over and over again, we have difficulty changing a behavior even when we make a conscious effort. Just remember your struggle the last time that you set out on a new diet or exercise program.
There is a deeper reason for our human frailty. The same mathematical sequence we see everywhere in nature is also in us.
That is why we can rely on historical information to anticipate what is “likely” to happen in the future. Grocery stores even set prices based on your behavior.
When I talk about repetitive patterns, I’m not just talking about patterns you hear about like trends, head and shoulders, candle patterns, double tops, etc., etc. I’m talking about patterns throughout the entire decision process. We know traders like to trade trends. Where do they like to get in? Where is the best place for you to get in? Where is the best place to put your stop loss and profit target?
As buyers buy and sellers sell in the Forex market, they create patterns. These patterns show us what traders are doing over and over again. So when we see the pattern next time, we know what is likely to happen again.
The Forex
I’m going to be brief in my explanations because there is so much that you “don’t need to know.”
Forex is short for Foreign Exchange. It’s the largest market in the world, currently at
approximately 5 trillion USD a day in volume. I think of money as the life blood of business and the Forex as the circulatory system. It is a network of 1000’s of banks around the world with no central location. No one is in charge. The purpose of the Forex market is to
determine a fair price of exchange between two currencies. The price is determined using the principle of supply and demand. If there are more buyers at any given moment, price is moving up. If there are more sellers, price is moving down.
What is the Forex to me? A stream of data. That data comes into my software and tells me what price is doing.
Trading Software
Trading software takes in the data feed about buying and selling around the world and can be used in many different ways.
In 2001, platforms became very stable so that we were able to trade from our personal computers. So the industry or retail Forex trading (you and me) is still in its infancy.
Brokers or dealers provide most of the data feeds, charting software and trading platforms. These should be free of charge. Most brokers are willing to supply these to you (free of charge) in hopes that you will eventually trade a live account with them. Be sure you only open a practice account, NOT a live account. If you are a member of my community, you will find free software and tutorials there.
Do not open a real money account until you “actually” know how to trade.
If you open a live account prematurely, even if you intend not to trade it, there is a 90% chance (at least) that you will trade it and that you will lose all of your money.
For those of you who are MAC users, you will need to use Windows Parallels or a program like it to take full advantage of the tools available to a Forex trader. I know MAC users don’t like to hear it, but MAC is only 10-12% of the PC market, so those who write software write it for the bigger market first.
The good news is that programs work pretty well using Parallels. You can use web based software on MAC but functions will be limited, though adequate.
With modern software, you can execute trades directly from your charts. I recommend a desktop trading platform for new traders because it has functions that enable you to learn details you don’t know.
Please make a note that some user codes expire every 30 days. So your charts and trading platform will become inaccessible when a code expires. Simply register for a new user code in the free member area once you are a member. Use that new code to login to your charts and trading platform, and you are good to go again.
Charts usually display military time as 00:00-23:00. To calculate the time, just subtract 12 hours. So if you see it is the 14:00 candle and you are not familiar with military time, subtract 12 hours and you know that is 2PM.
It can be beneficial to set your charts to New York, ET if they are adjustable. This will make it easier for you to read other trader posts, and make it easier for others to review something you share. For example, if a trader writes that they entered the trade at 13:00. This could cause confusion if your charts are set to a different time zone.
If you do prefer a different time zone, that's okay, because what I'm showing you will work for any time zone or charts.
I recommend Fibonacci retracement tool settings of 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and 76.4. These are used to measure the natural retracement areas of price waves, and will be important later. You will find instructions regarding in the charting tutorials within the community area. Give yourself time to practice and become familiar with the charts and trading platform. I’m going to give you a specific method (rules) in this guide so that you can practice. This will help you develop proficiency with the tools, a familiarity with the vocabulary we traders use, and you’ll be going through the motions of applying good trading logic.
Chapter 2: Market Language
There is definitely a vocabulary or language to trading; a few words and terms. I think the fastest way to learn is to begin using the charts and trading platform. You find out quickly what you don’t know or are not sure about.
When you come across a word or term you don’t know, just ask or look it up. I’ll briefly define most of the words and terms that are important.
Currencies are traded in pairs. So when we trade, we trade a pair such as the EUR/USD. The currency on the left is the “base” currency. The currency on the right is the “quoted” currency. So that means when you look at a EUR/USD chart, you are “seeing” the Euro value move up and down on the chart. The price on the right side of the chart is the USD. So that chart is telling you how much US Dollars it takes to buy one Euro.
You don’t really need to know that to trade, though (ha).
All you need to know is this: If you buy and price goes up, you make money. If you buy and price goes down, you lose money. If you sell, and price goes down, you make money. If you sell and price goes up, you lose money. Buying or selling is the exact same thing because of the great liquidity in this market. That just means that there are almost always buyers and sellers available. That is very different from stocks where price could be plummeting and you cannot close the trade because there are no buyers.
What you need to know is this: buying and selling is the same exact action. This can be confusing for new traders. We understand that if we buy something and the price goes up we make money. If the price goes down, we lose money. But how do we comprehend selling something and the price going up or down and making or losing money? It’s
because currencies are traded in pairs. As one goes up in price, the other is going down by exactly that same amount. So imagine you are trading the EUR/USD. If you buy the
EUR/USD and it goes up, you make money. Simple enough. But what if you sell it? Think of it this way, if it helps. Selling the EUR/USD is the same thing as buying the USD/EUR. So just change their places, and you are back to buying!
Another thing you need to know is that price movement is measure in PIPs. Just think of it as a currency measurement just like quarters, nickels, dimes and cents. Only it is even
smaller. In US Dollars, a PIP is one 10,000th of a cent (there are actually no pennies in US
currency, we just got in the habit of calling a one cent coin a penny).
Now you don’t need to know all of that. All you need to know is that a PIP is the last two digits (decimal places) on the chart. Many brokers have switched to fractional PIPs to be more competitive. So for example, if your EUR/USD displays like this 1.3882 you have whole PIPS in the last two decimal places (82). If you have fractional PIPs (as I now do), it may be displayed 1.38827. That means that the last digit on the right (7) is 1/10 of a PIP. Or 82.7 PIPs using the last three digits.
My suggestion as a new trader is to simply ignore the 5th decimal place for now. You
really do not need to complicate the process further at this point.
So as Forex traders, we are only watching the value in PIPs. You don’t even need to know what PIP stands for. It used to represent Price Interest Percentage. It has become popular to call it Percentage in Point (popular among a very small group).
While you are new, stick with US Dollar pairs. It will save you confusion. For example, if you are trading the EUR/GBP (called a cross pair), there is no US Dollar in the pair. If you were trading US Dollars, you would need to determine the actual PIP value in US Dollars. No need to concern yourself with that now.
Keep in mind that there are so many things that you can learn about this market. But if you want to learn fast, focus on only the essentials. Then learn the other stuff as you go. Keep trading as simple as possible!
I think it is useful for even a new trader to know that most of the volume in the Forex market is the US Dollar, Euro, Great British Pound, and Yen. USD 40%, Euro 20%, Pound 12%, and Yen 8%. Those are approximate enough to show you that 80% of all movement in this market is in those four currencies, with much greater volume with the EUR and USD. The Yen tends to be a little more erratic. So when you are new, avoid that currency. From time to time, the Bank of Japan does its best to manipulate that currency. This is called an intervention. An intervention is when a central bank, a group of central banks, or policy makers take action to alter the price of a currency.
Chapter 3: Setting Up Your Charts
For a new trader, I recommend practicing with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and then minor pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD. You don’t need a lot of pairs to practice. The minors (AU, NU) are only there for practice. The logic I teach you will work best on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. With all other pairs, there will be other factors which will influence your probability of winning. For example, commodity prices play a huge role in the price of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. For now, just use them for practice.
In 2008, the future of the financial world became very uncertain. Will the Euro have a future? Will the US dollar remain the world's reserve currency? The very existence of these questions cast a shadow of doubt on long term positions. So for years, I focused on trends that are created and run their course on much shorter time frames. In September 2014, the world markets began to compete again, with central bank interest rates
telegraphing divergence. That was followed by Japan in October engaging in an “every man for himself” philosophy. This was followed the Swiss bank making a unilateral and surprising decision in January 2015 that stunned the currency markets. So there has never been a better time to trade Forex. Competitive markets create more opportunity and
make the market more predictable for a skilled trader.
When you are newer, I think the most important thing to do is practice. You need to develop basic market proficiency with tools, logic and language.
Tools such as charts and trading platform Language such as PIPs and Stop Loss
Basic trading logic that teaches trends, barrier, entry and exit
This is what you need to “get down” in the first level, as I see it. Be careful not to take on too much at once or you will be easily overwhelmed. Just focus on getting proficient at those three areas first.
To accomplish this, I’m going to give you something to practice.
First setup your charts so that you have EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. Set each chart to be 30 minute candles. You will find a complete tutorial on downloading and using the charts in my community area, but many brokers are very helpful with their free
software. I recommend 30 minute candles because they will give you more opportunity to practice.
Always keep in mind that a trader does not look for a way to enter a trade. A trader
waits until the right opportunity presents itself and then strikes. There is a very big
difference. Make this a part of your mindset at the very beginning.
I have important reasons for recommending the following. Place a 21 and 55 EMA on each of the charts. These are called exponential moving averages. It doesn’t really matter how or why they work. All that matters is how we are going to use them.
Now you should have four (4) 30min charts with 21 and 55 EMAs.
I recommend “candlestick charts.” They are the most common charts being used. Once you get to know me, you will see that I’m always just watching what the trend is doing, watching what everyone else is doing, and based on what they do, I form high probability conclusions. So if most traders are using candlestick charts, that’s what I want to be using, too. That’s simple logic.
Here are the reasons I ask you to setup your charts in this way: More trading opportunities
Learn to follow a trend Learn to see a pullback Learn to see a barrier
Learn to enter and exit trades
If you are ever going to make consistent profits trading Forex, you have to be able to
successfully execute this logic. So even though we are not focusing on making profits right now, you are going to be applying much of the logic that does make you profits.
Your chart should look something like this.
You can adjust the colors however you like. I have a black background (in this picture), but you can use whatever you want. Some traders prefer to use different colors for candles. Some need to use different colors because of the unique way their eyes (brains) process information. Whatever the case, it really doesn’t matter what the colors are, as long as you know what they represent.
Chapter 4: Basic Chart Data About Candles
The time of the chart is on the bottom, left to right. On my chart, you see blue and red candles. The blue candles represent buyers and the red candles represent sellers. We could make these candles represent any time frame.
When you see a completed red candle that means there were more sellers than buyers in that 30 minute period. Candles have bodies, wicks, and tails. A candle is created by the high, low, open and close prices. The tail is the vertical line extending from the body down, and the lowest point of that tail is the lowest price that candle reached during that period.
The vertical line on the top of the candle is the wick. The rectangular part of the candle is called the body. If the body is blue, then the candle began (opened) on the lowest part of
the body, and ended (closed) at the highest part of the body. If the candle is red (as pictured), then price opened on the highest part of the body and closed at the lowest part of the body. These are quite a few details that I am throwing out at you, but it is information you need to know.
So let’s think about some of that. If there were three blue candles in a row, which way does price have to be going? It can only be going up. The inverse is true of red candles.
Sometimes it will be necessary for you to find out what the high, low, open or close is. You can eye ball this, but the more accurate way to do it is to use the cross hairs and Display Data Box. On most charts, when
you left click, and line up the vertical axis on any candle, a box will pop up. That box will tell you all of the specific information you might want about that
candle. It will also tell you the positions of moving averages and other indicators.
Chapter 5: Trends, Pullbacks, Introduction to Barriers The TREND
As I mentioned in the beginning, all of our decisions are based on logic. That logic is the result of a study of historic patterns that are created by buyers and sellers. There are chart patterns, candle patterns, indicator patterns, and even other not so well known patterns.
The most repeated pattern on the charts is what we call a “trend.” In trader speak, a trend is when you see price moving in a particular direction. In this picture on the left, price is “trending” down.
The reason we want to know about the trend and learn to recognize it first is because MOST traders want to trade in the direction of the trend. So YOU should be looking to trade in the direction of the trend.
A trend is any clear price move up or down. In this picture (under), price is not trending, it is “sideways.”
In this picture to the left, I want to bring your attention to something else. The more experience you get, the less you will need to rely on
indicators. The yellow lines are the 21 and 55 EMAs. They are moving averages. 90%+ of the time, they are going to give you an accurate read on the trend direction. That’s good enough when you are learning how trading works. So trending is easy for you. If the faster moving average is on top, you only buy. If the faster moving average is on the bottom, you only sell. Note that the “faster moving average” changes direction faster. If it helps, make the slower moving average (55) a dotted line. Don’t overcomplicate this. Even some of the most skilled and successful traders use moving averages. Why? Because it gives them something “definitive” on which to base decisions. The more experience you get,
the more you will appreciate the value of good definition. So we can see in this picture that price is making a steady move down. We can also just look at the moving averages and see that they are apart and down. In later levels, I’ll increase the reliability to 100%.
We are now building a trading method for practice that will consist of Trend
Pullback to barrier Entry and exits
Sticking with your plan So far we have explored “trend".
Pullbacks
The barrier is just as important as the trend. We said that “traders like to trade in the direction of the trend.” We also know from repeated observation that traders like to enter that trend when price “pulls back.” Because of this market psychology, you will see a
pattern repeating over and over again. You will see a “trend,” you will see a pullback, and
then you will see price push again in the direction of that trend. Look at the picture
below. Follow the white lines. Price trends and pulls back, trends and pulls back… So the next key is “how do we know WHEN” to get back on in the direction of the trend?
Barriers
We know from looking at charts for years and tens of thousands of hours that traders like to enter a trend at a good barrier. A barrier is also called support or resistance, also referred
to as areas of likely “supply or demand.” Resistance is a barrier that is above price, and Support is a barrier that is below price (demand below price, supply above). So you will need to know how to draw horizontal lines on your charts. When price trends and then goes sideways, as you see on the left, this is called “consolidation.”
There is a subtle difference between the use of the words sideways and consolidation. They will both be sideways. But sideways movement can be caused by periods of
uncertainty. Consolidation is usually the result of very bullish or bearish price movement, and the bigger money needs to take profit and regain some capital for the next move up or down. You can learn more about that nuance later.
There is another type of barrier (support or resistance) that is called “historic barrier.” This refers to a price “area” where price has trouble going below or above. I write “price area” because it is usually not a specific price, but a “range” of prices.
Historic Barriers: As you can see, I am using a rectangle to show this “area” where price has struggled to get above or get below “in the past.” You are looking for “multiple touches.” This takes some practice. So practice.
In level 3, I will show you how to see when historic areas of resistance and support are more or less meaningful.
Whether it is a historic barrier, or consolidations, both are barriers, both are support or resistance. Our goal is to anticipate where price is likely to “bounce.”
It’s not too early for me to put it another way. You are looking for areas where we are likely to encounter buyers or sellers. You will hear us referring to this as “orders.” As in, “there are probably some buy orders sitting there.”
I’m going to share one more technique that you will need to practice for identifying barriers. Remember to connect with other traders, review work of traders at your level, and above all, ask questions when you have one. I can still remember how nice it was to have community when learning these techniques.
Chapter 6: The Fibonacci Retracement Tool Basics
Once you see your trend, and that trend “begins” to “pullback,” this is where we will look for our trade. The word pullback is also called “retracement.” Retracement refers specifically to the Fibonacci Retracement Tool levels. A pullback can refer to any counter movement of price.
In the beginning of this book, I gave you Fibonacci settings of 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 76.4. This is what that tool looks like all by itself. We start at the beginning of the trend, and then draw it to the end of the trend. It is extremely valuable because there are repetitive patterns here, too. This tool can help us to identify a good barrier.
First you need a trend. When that trend “starts to pullback,” that’s when you can use the Fibonacci retracement tool. From here on out I’ll refer to it as the “Fib tool.” Once we draw
it, I’ll refer to it as “Fib.” As you can see if you follow the arrows, price is going “sideways,” and then it begins to “trend down.” In a downtrend, we would want to “sell.” But we want to sell when price pulls back to a good barrier (green). The Fib can be one “confirmation” that we have a good barrier.
The Fib is always drawn from the left to right. You know it is time to think about drawing
a fib because price begins moving counter to the trend. You’ll see the opposite color candles like the one at the white arrow. The previous candle was blue at one point.
You start the Fib where the trend begins down.
23.6% and 38.2% are natural profit taking levels, and 50% and 61.8 are correction levels. No need to get more into it than that at this time.
I suppose I could write a book on why this works, but the historical pattern is this: 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 76.4 can be barriers indicating where price will turn. I don’t pay attention to the 23.6 barrier as a potential place for a trade. All too often it moves to 38.2 anyway, and a shallow entry can increase the probability of your stop loss being reached. So I would like to see price move back to 38.2 before I consider a trade. That said, feel free to enter at any barrier at this point.
Now you have two things to look for at a barrier. 1. A Fibonacci retracement level OR 2. A historic barrier. Once again, at this level, you are learning these key things:
Proficiency with Charts and Trading Platform How to see a trend
How to see when price is “pulling back.” How to enter and exit a trade.
Sticking with your plan
When you have the basics down, your next focus should be "defining the right high
probability setup for you." Most traders spend years of wasted time at this level, making the mistakes of thinking that "if I just know enough about the market, I will succeed." This is just
a mistake. Your second level can be accomplished in a single month if you know what your job is at that second step. He's exactly what you should learn to do next (at the next level)
1. Learn the elements involved in any high probability trade 2. Learn to balance those elements
3. Learn to manage risk
4. Identify Your Personal Setup
Now I will discuss an example of the trend, pullback and barrier in an uptrend.
Look at how the trend moves up (faster moving average is above), and then begins to a pullback the other way (back down). As it does, I draw a fib from the start of the trend to the top of the trend. Now I’m looking for price to come down and reach at least the 38.2 Fib level. When price reaches my barrier, I can buy. Just do the best you can drawing your Fib for now where you think the trend starts up. I developed a technique called New Wave
Fibonacci Drawing (you will learn in level 2) that will enable to you draw Fibs with greater
Sometimes you get “two” barriers lining up at the same time. So take a look at the picture above again, and then look at this picture below. In the picture below, notice the barrier with the three white arrows. This was the former resistance area that price broke above. It is “easy” to see. Then you can see at the green arrow that this barrier coincides with the former barrier. When two barriers coincide, this is called “confluence.” Over time, I have found confluence to be more coincidental than useful, so probably not that important to use. What is useful later is the increased comfort level you get when you can get your stop behind one of these former levels.
For now, just look for a historic barrier like you see at the three white arrows OR a 38.2-76.4 Fib level). In other words, you only need “one” barrier to practice (at this time). Do your best not to focus on winning trades right now. Comparing this to baseball, you are not attempting to “get on base” right now. You are just learning to “swing the bat.” Once you get the basics down, you will practice getting on base.
Chapter 7: Entry and Exits
Entry is about where you enter the trade. I’ll keep entry and exit very simple so that you
can move very fast to the next level of trading.
We will be entering right at our barrier. So when you see price trending, you will look for the 23.6, 38.2, 50%, 61.8, 76.4 or a former barrier to. As you see here, the moment price pulls back to any level, we buy. That is the green line, and I suggest you just use a green line from now on to illustrate your buy price. At this level, simply buy or sell 4 contracts (40k). Contracts are also sometimes referred to as “lots.” In the next level, we’ll learn how to limit our risk by a specific percentage. For now, just buy or sell 4 contracts in your (mini) practice account (this assumes you are using a 10k-50k demo account). For now, practice entering at “any” barrier. You are going through important motions. In level 2, we wait for at least a 38.2 pullback, but at this beginner level, as I wrote, go ahead and just enter at the 23.6, as well.
An “exit” is your profit target or stop loss. First let’s discuss your stop loss. For now, simply place your stop loss 30 pips away from your entry. Again, do not be concerned with winning or losing. I’m teaching you good form for “swinging a baseball bat,” so to speak. We are just practicing good form while learning the basics. So if you are buying, as in this picture, your stop loss is placed 30 PIPs below your entry price. If you were selling, your stop loss would be placed 30 PIPs above your entry price.
It is important that you enter your stop loss immediately on the trading platform. You must always be in the habit of doing this. The stop loss limits your overall risk in every trade. It is crucial you do this for many reasons. The most important reason is this, and I suggest you write it down and pin it up on your wall: “Each trade must be thought of as a random
event.” What that means is that “anything can happen.” No matter how smart or
knowledgeable we get, no matter how great our trading setup is, at any given moment, anything can happen. An oil pipeline can get attacked. Fears of a bank collapse can emerge. A bank can make a surprise announcement. The possibilities are numerous. We don’t have to monitor everything that is happening in the world. We just have to trade our plan and always know that there is no way we can ever prepare for every possibility. Nor do we need to. We make money from a “series of trades,” not a single trade. This is reality. This is just how it is. It is only natural to be disappointed when we lose and excited
when we win. But in time, this will change. It will be a while, but it will change. So you MUST ALWAYS trade with a stop loss limiting your risk.
For our target, let’s also keep this really simple. Your plan will be to make 15 PIPs.
Prior to 2014, it was necessary to learn to factor the spreads into all of our
calculations. Spreads have dropped in many cases to .5, making this no longer an issue. So I chose to drop that requirement at the beginning level. Once you move to live trading in Level 4, it will become more important to account for spreads.
As I wrote, don’t worry about your “total risk” at this time. Later we will limit our risk to 2-2.5% maximum of our equity when we trade. This adds more complication to your practice. For now, when you trade, just buy or sell 40k in contracts (lots).
Chapter 8: Application Stick with Your Plan
The final piece is "sticking with your plan." One day, you want to be so detached from the outcome of the trade that trading is just like setting a timer. If the noodles take 13 minutes, you set the timer, focus on something else, and come back when the timer goes off. The goal of the Forex Art of War program is "developing the skill to make consistent profit." I believe that you cannot make "more" until you first learn to make "some." Focusing only on consistent profit, and knowing how to do that is the fastest path to real success.
Keep in mind that your brain is very much used to processing information in a different way. I’ll be discussing this in more detail. But clearly the beginning of processing information in a new way is practicing the right strategy (pattern).
When you take a trade, you want to set your stop loss and profit target in the trading
platform, and once you do that, your job is over. Price is either going to hit your stop, or hit your target. So practice this over and over. If you find yourself making changes during the trade, then I suggest that you turn your computer off and come back later. You are training your mind to understand that there is nothing for you to do. You'll see what I mean. The mind thinks that there is something to do. You need to train yourself that once you place your entry and exits points, your job is over.
Beginner Psychology: Self-Discipline (the ability to delay immediate gratification)
At Ted, you can view a video titled, Don’t eat the Marshmallow (just go to www.Ted.com
and search). The video shows you one way that future success can be predicted. A
professor at Stanford took children who were only four years old, put them in a room and gave them each a marshmallow. He said, if you wait 15 minutes, I’ll give you a second marshmallow. But if you take even one bite of the first marshmallow during that time, you will not get the second marshmallow. At the end of the 15 minutes, about 33% of the children refrained from eating the marshmallow.
14 years later, they did a follow up study. They found that 100% of the kids who did not eat the marshmallow were successful (doing well in school, good relationships). MOST of the kids who did eat the marshmallow were not okay. In trouble, poor grades, some dropped out, not going to college, and so on.
This is an important principle because whenever you set out to change an existing behavior (like making decisions in a different way), you are going to run into discomfort (brain’s resistance to change/fear or discomfort). Don’t eat the marshmallow.
In summary, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. You must become proficient at language, basic tools, and basic logic. Once you do, then you will be ready for more. Always
remember “it’s not about what the market does, it’s about what you do.” Always keep in mind that your success depends on your ability to make good decisions, not on what you see happening in the market. Do not chase trades. Learn to let the trade come to you. Remember to write any questions, any time in your personal forum.
Congratulations on a great start, and I wish you the very best on your journey!
VERY IMPORTANT: Below, you will find the Level 1 trading plan. When you carry out the objectives in that plan, you can then move to Level 2. PRINT THE PLAN!
Your most important step is to become familiar with the Level 1 Trading Plan and look for a trade. Very often traders overcomplicate this level. If you are totally new, you will want to become familiar with the tools and language, but in terms of carrying out an objective trading, getting past level 1 could not be easier. Just follow the plan, and post your trade in your personal form.
Look for feedback from other team members. Did you get right? Do you need to improve something? Remember that there are no grades. You either “got it” or you don’t. If you find yourself hesitating to post, just remember that there is no growth without
suffering/pain/discomfort. If you find yourself disappointed, remember the same. I have personally had a policy for years: If I make mistake, I look to quickly see if there is anything I can learn from it. If I can great, if I can’t, okay. Then I get back on the horse and move forward. I have no time for shame.
To be good, you must master your craft. But to be great, you must master yourself. Most of the time, the trick is to accept a little bit of temporary discomfort in order to gain the bigger rewards (Don’t eat the marshmallow). And remember that the secret is practice.
Level 1 Trading Plan Level 1 Trading Plan Revision 4 ‐ Using only 30 minute charts. EU, GU, NU, AU pairs Chart ‐ Use only a 30 minute chart Currency Pairs ‐ EUR/USD (EU), GBP/USD (GU), AUD/USD (AU) NZD/USD (NU) Trend If faster moving average (21 EMA) is above slower moving average (55 EMA), only buy. If faster moving average is below, only sell. Pullback/Barriers Need only one barrier (any barrier) Can use Fibonacci retracement levels 23.6‐76.4 (no need to be precise in Level 1) Can use historic support or resistance (illustrate with rectangle) Entry A. Enter when price reaches your barrier (market order) B. Use a buy or sell entry limit (pending order) – called “entry order” on other chart services. Exits Stop Loss: 30 pips below your buy price, or 30 pips above sell price. Profit Target: 15 PIPs from entry Additional Rules Take one trade at a time Trade 40 contracts (40K) Once you enter, set the stop and limit orders and do not touch it. Let price reach your stop or limit. Stick To The Plan Observe spreads, but ignore them in your calculations Post Trade in Your Personal Forum Label chart prices, describe reason for entering Trade, post before price reaches stop loss or profit target if you can. Watch for feedback from others
Introduction to level 2
The Level 2 information is what most people are after when they enter Forex trading. In a nutshell, it is about your ability to read the market. But as powerful as the knowledge, tools, and techniques are in this section, the real results come from application. I’ll tell you what I told every trader I coached over the years: I am not your teacher. Experience is
your teacher. If you want to save a lot of time, also be wise. Wisdom is your ability to reflect on your experience and make better choices for your future.
When I was a very young man, I became determined to succeed such that money was never going to be an issue for me. I think I began working on that dream even in my teens. I struck out into the world at 18, not knowing how little I actually knew. In the first years, I struggled, always struggled. Then I had some sporadic success, followed by painfully dry spells. But it was not until I was 26 that I first tasted what I wanted so much. My success was the result of a lot of effort, and a few really important ideas. Many of those ideas and others I learned years later are in this book. But one of the ideas I want to share with you first is this one: It changed my world. “Make your first dollar first.” This was not the first principle I ever applied, but it might have been the first time I became fully conscious that I was making a choice to apply a principle. I could understand it. I could see what made it a principle, and I could see why it worked.
It’s the idea that your first measure of success is that point in time when you have made one more dollar than you have spent since the beginning. Now think about it: If
you know the goal is to make your first dollar, do you really need a new desk? If you don’t, buying a new desk makes it take longer to reach your first goal. But it isn’t just about items you spend money on. It’s also how you focus your time. You will make your first dollar faster, if you focus your activity on those tasks which actually move you closer to your goal. For example, if you are in sales, talking to new people is, by far, the most important activity you can engage in.
Now let’s apply this principle to Forex trading. Because anyone can get lucky and make their first dollar their very first day, we cannot measure the first dollar in the same way we would a traditional business. In addition, we must define what that goal is. Before we do that, I’d like to share some additional perspective with you.
Years from now, you will come to see that when it comes to skill and execution, there is
fundamentally no difference at all between making $5 a day and making $500 a day –
or $5000 a day for that matter.
How much you make per day is purely a function of how much capital you have. That said, there can also be other factors that can change our behavior when we jump from trading $500 to trading $50,000. They key words there are “a change in behavior.” While I will
share ideas that lend themselves to advanced psychology, the goals of this book are
centered on “the skill of consistent profit making.”
What you are engaged in here is a powerful learning system based on 2500 year old principles found in Sun Tzu’s Art of War. It was also necessary for me to add about five that are fitting for our day and age. But I used the principles to guide the development of the program. You don’t need to know the principles. I’m just sharing that it was the guidance of the principles that led me to the difficult solutions. Once I had the solution, it was obvious that learning Forex is really no different from learning anything else.
Anyway, I want to give you what I call the core three principles that will help you with your initial obstacles.
1. You are in Command. Anything you experience in life is the result of your choices. 2. Know Your Objective Well – at any given moment time, there is only one thing that
we should focus our attention on.
3. Be Vigilant – your current objective should be important enough that you can put everything else aside and give it all you’ve got. We don’t always get what we
want, but we always get what we need. The power is evident in the last part of
that sentence.
So believing you are responsible for what happens in life is essential for success. This one belief is the difference between the 80% who never succeed, and the 20% who have varying degrees of success depending on the strategy that they employ. If you do have this belief, then it’s just a matter of knowing what to do next. Then you give it your best. Then you learn from experience.
With that in mind, as you are studying this course and applying it, always be mindful of your objective, and do your best to stay focused on it. If you are not sure what your objective is, ask.
So “make your first dollar first.” That is to say, limit your focus to a worthy first goal, and design your activity around that goal. If you cannot make $50 a week, you can never make $5000. It’s natural to desire “more,” but if you don’t make “some” first, you will never make “more.”
I am going to teach you how you actually make more by targeting less. Yes the old adage is true, “less is more.”
I’m explaining this in hopes that you will limit your expectation to consistent profit making only. Those who do not rarely succeed. A focus on anything else leads to a quest for “short cuts.” And we know short cuts in business lead back to where we started.
In addition I said to know your current objectives, and part of being vigilant is being conscious that you are going to have emotional ups and downs for a long time to come. This is all natural. The trick is to make the right decision regardless of how you feel. That’s part of what is means to be vigilant.
Okay on to the next important element of preparation. There is no trading plan in Level 2. There is in every other level. But not in level 2. There is a plan, but it is not a trading plan. There is a very important reason you want to do it in this way.
One of the most frequent mistakes made by Forex traders is that they try to copy
someone else. In another section, I’m going to show you how silly this is. But for now, I
want to just expose you to the idea that your brain processes information differently from every other person. You could stand behind a great hitter and try to emulate everything he does… OR… you could learn the logic (behavior) common to all great hitters, copy the logic, and then improve on how YOU do it.
There is a common proximity to the plate. Common position of the hands on the bat. A common direction the eyes are looking. The knees slightly bent are also a common behavior. And we could look at all that they have in common, and it is this that we would practice. If we have a coach, or the help of our fellow players (our trading community), when we swing, others can give us feedback on how we can improve.
Just so you know, I have a mentor I meet with regularly, who is an expert in the field of psychology. I tell him what I am experiencing, what I’m doing, and he gives me feedback. I always sought the guidance of mentors who could share powerful ideas about me. That’s a little different. In that scenario, they were teaching me ideas. With my current mentoring, it is about how I am applying the information. It’s about my application of the ideas, in
addition to the ideas.
That is built into the community. The best advice I can give you? Be authentic. Be
willing to fail in front of others. It’s not actually failure, after all. Your ability IS WHAT IT IS. If you can accept that, you will post what you are actually doing in real time, and you will receive the best feedback. I’d love to spend more time on that subject, but I’ll move on. There is another trap that traders fall into. It doesn’t take much at all to find yourself in the wrong mindset. What am I talking about? I’m talking about the mistake of imagining that
“if I just know enough about the market, I will succeed.”
Again, this is the introduction, so I want to be brief and say that there is a great
preoccupation with “knowledge.” Let me turn the lights on in this way: who do you think would be able to hit a baseball better? 1. Someone who studied one hundred books on hitting a baseball and practiced for one hour? 2. Someone who studied one book and
practiced for 100 hours? The answer is pretty obvious in those terms, is it not? And yet 90% of the traders you will see out there in the world are focused on knowledge, not
experience. I’ll touch on why this is happening in a future section. Always remember that the mind can only think in “symbols.” So just about all mind function we are accustomed to using is “imaginary.” Only your experience is real.
Back to our subject… There is no trading plan in level 2. Just like in the example of emulating the “common behavior” of all baseball players, that is what you are going to do in level 2. I’m going to give you the complete logic. Then you are going to do your best to apply that logic. But it goes without saying that YOU are going to be applying the logic, and not a single trader is going to do it in the same way. There are no right or wrong answers. There is just what you know now, what you can do now, and what you need to learn or do next. I often tell people that the difference between what I do and just about every other Forex training in the world is simple: just about everything else is education. Education is you watching me. Training/coaching is me watching you. Take a moment and think about real life examples of this and you will see quickly that this is true. So the community aspect of this program IS your most valuable tool.
Now let’s introduce you to what you will be learning.
When I trade, I see only a few of things, really. The buyers or sellers have an
advantage. I can measure the strength of that advantage. I can see how I can get in and out of the trade with good risk management. Like writing a beautiful song, before
you can get there, you first have to learn the alphabet, the rules of language, which words symbolize your intent best, and so on. But eventually, you will become an unconscious competent. But you have to learn to walk before you can run, as they say.
In the early parts of level 2, I will be discussing the ideas behind our decisions, such as logic and probabilities. Then I will move towards high probability trading piece by piece. In level 1, I gave you simple rules for using the Fibonacci. In level 2, I will give you specific rules for using this tool with greater accuracy, and in such a way that will enable you to measure buyer and seller strength and weakness.
You will learn the complete logic for making good trading decisions, and you will be applying that knowledge in such a way that it is personalized to you from the very beginning.
And finally, I’ll show you exactly what to do to optimize your experience by applying what you have learned and getting feedback from the community.
That’s a small sample of what you are going to learn.
Do not try to master trading in Level 2. Try to master carrying out the level 2 objectives and the rest will follow.
Level 2 Objectives
Study this course material
Focus only on applying complete logic by taking trades in your forum Look for feedback on your trade
Ask questions when they arise. Be patient
Focus on the process, not the end result
If you go through the information once or twice and are still uncertain, let me assure you that
an imperfect effort today is always more valuable than a more perfect effort
tomorrow. That means you are better off just “taking a swing” and getting feedback than
you are studying.
The Goal of Level 2
The goal of level 2 is for YOU to SEE a setup consistently that represents the
application of complete logic. You might have 90% of it, but continue to make a mistake
here and there. Perhaps you didn’t quite understand ROA. Maybe you aren’t quite getting what a “trend advance” really is. Perhaps you are not seeing the “New Waves” well yet. It’s better not to rush. Once you get all of that down and see the trading setups that contain the complete logic, it will be apparent in your most recent 4-8 trades. When that happens, others in the community will tell you.
When that happens, it is time for you to move to level 3. I suggest that you don’t jump ahead. I have designed this course specifically so that you can learn at your current level of ability and understanding, and at your own pace.
I wish you the very best on your journey in level 2. I can tell you with confidence that the ideas you are about to learn are powerful. Everything I teach you, I teach you from experience. You can do this. Just keep in mind that the way our results affect us in Forex trading is different from ordinary life. In the end, the most difficult part is dealing with how we feel. To help with this, I suggest abandoning language that triggers emotion. Instead of calling it a win or a loss, just say it hit your target or stop loss. Try not to celebrate your wins or mourn your losses. You will feel something, and accept that. Just allow it to be and continue on to the next setup.
Now, let’s get started with high probability trading. Let’s do this on a higher, more effective level of consciousness. Get ready to part ways with superstition and things you don’t understand. Let’s begin using the best information possible in order to make our decisions.
Chapter 1: Logic, Probabilities, Risk Probabilities
Understanding probabilities and how to use them are crucial to trading success. When I say “probability,” I’m referring to your ability to calculate the likelihood of an event in the future. If you think this might be difficult, consider that you do this all day long, every day, usually without even thinking about it. When you are approaching an intersection in your car, and the light turns yellow, you begin calculating probabilities without even thinking about it. It goes something like this: You look at the distance you need to travel to get to the other side of the intersection. You take into consideration your speed and the distance to get to the other side. In less than one second, you determine if it’s probably a good idea to
continue forward, or to step on the brakes. If you are inexperienced, you have a third option (lol) to step on the gas.
So you are doing this all of the time.
Now I am going to tell you something very important about the mindset and worldview of a trader. An experienced trader knows that he/she has no idea what’s going to happen in the next five minutes or five seconds. Why? Because the next moment in time is nothing but a probability for us.
In ordinary life, it usually “feels” like we know what is going to happen five seconds from now, but a trader has come to see and understand that there’s no way to be certain of what’s about to happen. It’s just a probability based on your past experience.
The reason why this is critically important to understand is because in ordinary life, we make assumptions all of the time without realizing how often our assumptions are incorrect. I’m going to suggest to you that about 50% of the time, our assumptions are incorrect. Why are we so bad at this? The simple answer is that we aren’t often held accountable for our assumptions. Therefore there are no consequences, and no incentive to learn from the mistake.
In addition, poor assumptions create poor expectations, and poor expectations create all kinds of psychological issues which distort how we see and understand our relationship to the information being presented to us.
So try to imagine that you are seeing the future as it is. It is totally uncertain. That can be a little uncomfortable if you are new to the idea, but it “is the way life really is.”
Try to imagine having no expectations. So now you are approaching the next moment totally with an open mind.
It’s important that we get into the habit of thinking about the future as a probability. It’s uncertain, and that’s okay. From this point of view, we can then use simple logic to put the probabilities of winning in our favor.
As I said, you are assessing probabilities all of the time. In fact, you mastered this a long time ago. You use your past experience to form the best conclusions about what you should do and anticipate what is going to happen next.
That’s what we do in Forex trading. If you are new, you don’t have much trading
experience. But the good news is that there’s a record of past experience of the market that you can draw upon to know what has happened in the past.
As you have already seen in the previous section of this book, as traders we use charts. What are charts, really?
The charts are buyer and seller orders that show up in the form of pattern. As patterns form over time, the behavior of the buyers and sellers is revealed.
Some behaviors repeat more often than others. And it is this information which enables us to anticipate what will happen in the future. It’s how you do it in ordinary life, and it’s how we do it as traders.
We just need information about what has happened in the past. Can we rely on past information? ABSOLUTELY!
This is all possible because HUMAN BEINGS REPEAT THE SAME BEHAVIORS OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
In fact, we’re such creatures of habit that even when we make a conscious effort to change any behavior, we find it difficult to do. Just think about the last time you made a New Year’s resolution, are attempted to changing eating or exercise habits.
But this tendency for human beings to repeat past behavior is good news for us as traders. You can be confident that people will continue to repeat the same behaviors over and over again. In fact, they can’t stop themselves. Any meaningful change takes a very long
time or is usually contingent upon some kind of catastrophe.
It’s not too early to let you know that my goal in level 2 is to guide you to patterns that repeat with enough regularity that they will keep your winning potential above 70%. Once you have the complete logic down, you will be able to go back in time and confirm that this is an accurate assessment of history. But don’t do this the other way around. Don’t formulate a
In other words, wait until you have your setup with complete logic, and THEN go back and validate that it is correct. Back test to validate. You cannot back test to create. It would require a lot of writing on my part to explain why this is. As my friends would tell you, I would love to write it, and it would be no effort at all. But to keep this brief and on point, I’ll just let you learn that it time, from experience.
I’m going to teach you patterns that are reliable. If you were here for the past 11 years like me, you would know this to be true. But even if you are completely new, what I’m going to show you is so full of common sense (can be confirmed by prior life experience), that it will be very easy to accept.
The main point is this: you can rely on what I am showing you. In time, you will know this. Why? Because you will see the patterns repeating over and over again in your own
experience.
Usually, when we are new to trading, when we think about winning, we think about choosing the right direction that price will go - perhaps choosing the right direction without price hitting our stop loss before it reaches our profit target. But having this focus tends to keep us preoccupied with those two issues. So we end up spending most of our time trying to anticipate price direction and read barriers well enough to give our stop loss enough room. But your actual probability of winning a trade involves more parts. The probability of
winning is determined by all of the parts, working in a relationship with one another, as I’m going to show you.
How do we know which direction price is likely to move? A pattern. How do we know the potential the movement has? A pattern. You get the idea.
What creates these patterns? Simple: Repetitive human behavior.
We are so predictable that we might blush is someone skilled pointed this out to us.
Consider that in everyday life, you are actually being taken advantage of by businesses like grocery stores. I could show you many ways this is going on. For example, it’s
conventional wisdom that if you buy a bigger package (bulk), you get a better price. However if you look closely at the price of flour, you notice that some of the bigger packages are more expensive (2 lb. vs. 1 lb.) Why?
Because computer algorithms monitor your buying habits. They pick prices up a bit to see if there is a change in behavior. If there is not, they bump prices up again. This process revealed that they can charge more for the bigger package of flour than the smaller.
Why? Because you “assume” the bigger package is cheaper, equating greater quantity with greater value. And really this is happening everywhere now.
They also know that if they give you three prices to choose from. A low price, a high price, and one in the middle; if this is not a special occasion, you are going to choose the middle price. If you are pressed for cash, you will choose the lower price. We have gotten into
such of a habit of buying the middle price, that now, very often, quality and middle price might not equate at all. You might be getting the bottom shelf product at the middle
shelf price. They try it. If you keep buying it, they just keep it there and keep banking the additional profits.
It is well known that convenience stores charge more, because they are more convenient than going into the grocery store. But the major chains are in the game, too, with a new angle. I was in a chain hardware store some time back. I was there to buy light bulbs. The first section I came to had all types of light bulbs. I can say that looking at the prices, I wondered where the bargains were. They are all quite expensive. I was curious and went a little farther down the aisle. I found almost a duplicate set of lightbulbs at better prices. You see, the chains have figured out how to use your past behavior to make more money. They use the idea of convenience and have two displays. One for the first light bulbs you come to, and then another display for the more conscientious shopper.
Even the price you pay for many products is determined by your behavior. But specifically, that’s why you see prices that vary by up to 40 cents per gallon in different parts of the same exact city.
Their goal is to maximize what they can charge, based on your behavior. If there is a sharp drop, they lower prices to restore demand and then they go through the cycle of inching the prices up again. And somehow, the prices rarely get back to the former low
I could go on with many examples of how businesses are capitalizing on your behavior. I’m telling you all of this because when it comes to price, I want you to know that you can totally rely on past information (human behavior) to anticipate what is likely to happen in the future. Again, when you look at charts, you are not really looking at candles. What you are really looking at are symbols that represent human behavior. I don’t really see candles anymore. I just see behavior, and that is why I call this approach Price Logic Trading. It’s because we are focused on the behavior, not the symbols of behavior. Let me give you a real life example of the difference.
Perhaps someone was taught that if they walk under a ladder, it is seven years of bad luck. You are conscious that there is a ladder. You are conscious that you should not walk under
